<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -1.27%)(BRK.B 0.18%)、<strong>帕兰提尔科技</strong>(PLTR -2.46%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.69%) 有什么共同点？没什么。然而，它们都是在近年来取得显著成功的大型公司。</p>
<p>我们可以肯定地排除一个共同点：这三家公司都没有正在进行量子计算的开发。但另一家科技巨头正在进行。我预测到 2030 年，它的市值将超过伯克希尔、帕兰提尔和特斯拉的总和。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NTUvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NTUvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>潜在的量子计算巨头</h2>
<p>我所想的潜在量子计算巨头是谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG -1.51%)(GOOGL -1.45%)。我的预测并不需要冒太大的风险。</p>
<p>字母表目前的市值约为 2.3 万亿美元。这仅略低于伯克希尔哈撒韦（1.04 万亿美元）、帕兰提尔（3740 亿美元）和特斯拉（966 亿美元）三家公司的总市值 2.4 万亿美元。字母表所需要做的就是在未来五年内比这三只股票增长得稍快一些。</p>
<p>我认为这是可以做到的。然而，为了使我的预测成真，有几件事情必须发生，而这些与字母表无关。</p>
<p>如果伯克希尔哈撒韦在沃伦·巴菲特的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下进行了一次大规模收购，从而推动公司的增长，那么一切都将不再成立。不过，我的直觉是阿贝尔在担任首席执行官的头几年不会尝试任何如此冒险的事情。</p>
<p>我假设帕兰提尔的估值会追赶上它，或者它的增长不会追赶上它的估值。考虑到该股的前瞻市盈率接近 278，而增长并不足以证明这一溢价，我认为我处于相对安全的立场。</p>
<p>对于特斯拉，我预计来自 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 等公司的电动车市场竞争将会非常激烈。我押注于凯西·伍德及其方舟投资团队对特斯拉市值将在机器人出租车市场启动时飙升的预测是错误的。我还认为，特斯拉要在其 Optimus 人形机器人上取得重大商业成功将需要超过五年的时间。</p>
<h2>量子计算及更多</h2>
<p>当然，即使我对伯克希尔、帕兰提尔和特斯拉的假设成立，字母表也必须实现强劲增长。我对这一点持乐观态度。</p>
<p>顺便说一下，我的预测并不依赖于公司在量子计算方面取得重大突破。不过，这确实是一个明显的可能性。谷歌量子人工智能已经在其量子计算路线图上实现了六个里程碑中的两个。它也相信在本十年内构建出有用的量子计算机是可行的。</p>
<p>我所依赖的是谷歌云的持续强劲增长。该部门在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比飙升 32%，是三大云服务提供商中增长最快的。凭借强大的人工智能（AI）助力，我认为谷歌云的持续势头应该是一个相对安全的押注。</p>
<p>我还期待谷歌搜索、YouTube 和字母表的其他广告创收业务在其市场中保持主导地位。有些人警告称生成性 AI 对谷歌搜索构成了生存威胁。但我看到的只是谷歌的生成性 AI 举措帮助巩固了其在搜索引擎市场中的地位。</p>
<p>虽然我假设机器人出租车市场不会足够大，以至于让特斯拉在 2030 年达到近 10 万亿美元的市值，但我确实认为这可能会为字母表的 Waymo 部门提供不错的推动。自动驾驶汽车业务可能会成为字母表日益重要的增长驱动力。</p>
<h2>文章中的大象</h2>
<p>诚然，我的预测中存在一个潜在的障碍。这也是房间里的大象（或者在这种情况下，是文章中的大象）。对谷歌的反垄断行动是否会威胁到字母表的增长？</p>
<p>对这个问题的最佳答案可能是……也许。然而，我认为在 2030 年之前不会发生这种情况。谷歌正在对两项不利于它的联邦法院裁决提出上诉。法律程序可能会拖延多年。我不会对该公司胜诉下注。即使它没有胜诉，我的直觉是，目前使该股票具有吸引力的大多数因素仍将保持不变。</p>
<p>五年后我们将知道我的预测是否成真。在此期间，我将字母表视为市场上最佳的量子计算股票（也是最佳的 AI 股票之一）。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>一项预测表明，到 2030 年，Alphabet（谷歌）将超过伯克希尔哈撒韦、Palantir 和特斯拉的总市值，这得益于其在量子计算方面的进展以及谷歌云的强劲增长。作者认为，尽管面临反垄断行动和电动车市场竞争的潜在风险，Alphabet 目前的市值为 2.3 万亿美元，增长速度仍能超过其竞争对手。量子计算项目的成功以及在广告领域的持续主导地位也被强调为这一增长的关键因素</p>

<p>What do <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -1.27%)(BRK.B 0.18%), <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.46%), and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.69%) have in common? Not much. However, they're all large-cap companies that have achieved significant success in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -1.27%)(BRK.B 0.18%)、<strong>帕兰提尔科技</strong>(PLTR -2.46%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -1.69%) 有什么共同点？没什么。然而，它们都是在近年来取得显著成功的大型公司。</p>
</div><p>There's one common denominator we can definitely cross of the list: None of these three companies has quantum computing developments underway. But another tech giant does. And I predict it will be worth more than Berkshire, Palantir, and Tesla <em>combined</em> by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们可以肯定地排除一个共同点：这三家公司都没有正在进行量子计算的开发。但另一家科技巨头正在进行。我预测到 2030 年，它的市值将超过伯克希尔、帕兰提尔和特斯拉的总和。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NTUvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827655%2Fman-holding-binoculars-with-dollar-signs.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A potential quantum computing monster</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在的量子计算巨头</h2>
</div><p>The potential quantum computing monster I have in mind is Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -1.51%)(GOOGL -1.45%). My prediction doesn't require stepping out on a limb too much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我所想的潜在量子计算巨头是谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG -1.51%)(GOOGL -1.45%)。我的预测并不需要冒太大的风险。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's market cap currently hovers around $2.3 trillion. That's only a little below the $2.4 trillion combined market caps of Berkshire Hathaway ($1.04 trillion), Palantir ($374 billion), and Tesla ($966 million). All Alphabet needs to do is grow a little faster than these three stocks over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表目前的市值约为 2.3 万亿美元。这仅略低于伯克希尔哈撒韦（1.04 万亿美元）、帕兰提尔（3740 亿美元）和特斯拉（966 亿美元）三家公司的总市值 2.4 万亿美元。字母表所需要做的就是在未来五年内比这三只股票增长得稍快一些。</p>
</div><p>I think that's doable. However, a few things have to happen for my prediction to pan out that have nothing to do with Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这是可以做到的。然而，为了使我的预测成真，有几件事情必须发生，而这些与字母表无关。</p>
</div><p>All bets are off if Berkshire Hathaway pulls off a massive acquisition under Warren Buffett's successor, Greg Abel, that turbocharges the company's growth. My hunch, though, is that Abel won't attempt anything fraught with such risk in his first few years as CEO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伯克希尔哈撒韦在沃伦·巴菲特的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下进行了一次大规模收购，从而推动公司的增长，那么一切都将不再成立。不过，我的直觉是阿贝尔在担任首席执行官的头几年不会尝试任何如此冒险的事情。</p>
</div><p>I'm assuming that Palantir's valuation catches up with it or that its growth doesn't catch up with its valuation. With the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 278 and growth that doesn't come close to justifying this premium, I suspect I'm on pretty safe ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我假设帕兰提尔的估值会追赶上它，或者它的增长不会追赶上它的估值。考虑到该股的前瞻市盈率接近 278，而增长并不足以证明这一溢价，我认为我处于相对安全的立场。</p>
</div><p>With Tesla, I'm anticipating intense competition in the electric vehicle market from <strong>BYD</strong> and others. I'm banking on Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest team being wrong about projections that Tesla's market cap will skyrocket as the robotaxi market takes off. I'm also counting on it taking more than five years for Tesla to have a major commercial hit with its Optimus humanoid robots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于特斯拉，我预计来自 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 等公司的电动车市场竞争将会非常激烈。我押注于凯西·伍德及其方舟投资团队对特斯拉市值将在机器人出租车市场启动时飙升的预测是错误的。我还认为，特斯拉要在其 Optimus 人形机器人上取得重大商业成功将需要超过五年的时间。</p>
</div><h2>Quantum computing and more</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算及更多</h2>
</div><p>Of course, Alphabet must deliver strong growth even if my assumptions about Berkshire, Palantir, and Tesla hold up. I'm optimistic that it will.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，即使我对伯克希尔、帕兰提尔和特斯拉的假设成立，字母表也必须实现强劲增长。我对这一点持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>By the way, my prediction doesn't hinge on the company having a major quantum computing breakthrough. That is a distinct possibility, though. Google Quantum AI has already achieved two of the six milestones on its quantum computing roadmap. It believes that building a useful quantum computer is feasible within this decade, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顺便说一下，我的预测并不依赖于公司在量子计算方面取得重大突破。不过，这确实是一个明显的可能性。谷歌量子人工智能已经在其量子计算路线图上实现了六个里程碑中的两个。它也相信在本十年内构建出有用的量子计算机是可行的。</p>
</div><p>What I am counting on is continued impressive growth from Google Cloud. The unit's revenue soared 32% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate among the big three cloud service providers. With a massive artificial intelligence (AI) tailwind at its back, I think sustained momentum for Google Cloud should be a pretty safe bet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我所依赖的是谷歌云的持续强劲增长。该部门在 2025 年第二季度的收入同比飙升 32%，是三大云服务提供商中增长最快的。凭借强大的人工智能（AI）助力，我认为谷歌云的持续势头应该是一个相对安全的押注。</p>
</div><p>I also look for Google Search, YouTube, and Alphabet's other advertising moneymakers to remain dominant in their markets. Some have warned of an existential threat to Google Search from generative AI. All I've seen so far is Google's generative AI initiatives helping secure its position in the search engine market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我还期待谷歌搜索、YouTube 和字母表的其他广告创收业务在其市场中保持主导地位。有些人警告称生成性 AI 对谷歌搜索构成了生存威胁。但我看到的只是谷歌的生成性 AI 举措帮助巩固了其在搜索引擎市场中的地位。</p>
</div><p>While I assume that the robotaxi market won't be big enough to give Tesla a market cap of nearly $10 trillion by 2030, I do think it could provide a nice boost to Alphabet's Waymo unit. The self-driving car business is likely to become an increasingly important growth driver for Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我假设机器人出租车市场不会足够大，以至于让特斯拉在 2030 年达到近 10 万亿美元的市值，但我确实认为这可能会为字母表的 Waymo 部门提供不错的推动。自动驾驶汽车业务可能会成为字母表日益重要的增长驱动力。</p>
</div><h2>The elephant in the article</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>文章中的大象</h2>
</div><p>Admittedly, there is a potential fly in the ointment with my prediction. It's also the elephant in the room (or, in this case, the article). Could the antitrust actions against Google threaten Alphabet's growth?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，我的预测中存在一个潜在的障碍。这也是房间里的大象（或者在这种情况下，是文章中的大象）。对谷歌的反垄断行动是否会威胁到字母表的增长？</p>
</div><p>Probably the best answer to this question is... maybe. However, I don't think it will happen before 2030. Google is appealing the two federal court rulings that went against it. The legal process could drag out for years. I wouldn't bet against the company prevailing. Even if it doesn't, my hunch is that most of the factors that currently make the stock attractive would remain intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对这个问题的最佳答案可能是……也许。然而，我认为在 2030 年之前不会发生这种情况。谷歌正在对两项不利于它的联邦法院裁决提出上诉。法律程序可能会拖延多年。我不会对该公司胜诉下注。即使它没有胜诉，我的直觉是，目前使该股票具有吸引力的大多数因素仍将保持不变。</p>
</div><p>We'll know in five years if my prediction comes true. In the meantime, I view Alphabet as the best quantum computing stock (and one of the best AI stocks) on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年后我们将知道我的预测是否成真。在此期间，我将字母表视为市场上最佳的量子计算股票（也是最佳的 AI 股票之一）。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Quantum Computing Stock Will Be Worth More Than Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, and Tesla Combined by 2030

- 谷歌母公司 Alphabet 预计到 2030 年市值将超过伯克希尔、Palantir 和特斯拉的总和。  
- Alphabet 当前市值约为 2.3 万亿美元，需在未来五年内实现更快增长。  
- 其云服务和广告业务持续强劲增长，量子计算也在稳步推进。  

预测：到 2030 年，这只量子计算股票的市值将超过伯克希尔哈撒韦、Palantir 和特斯拉的总和