<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -2.26%) 的股票在年初表现缓慢，但自四月初开始的强劲反弹使其年初至今上涨了约 30%。这种势头能否持续将很大程度上取决于这家人工智能（AI）领导者在 8 月 27 日发布财务第二季度财报时的表现。</p>
<p>英伟达去年的销售额翻了一番，但维持这样的增长水平将会很困难。由于客户建立库存以及竞争芯片开始出现，对其领先的 AI 硬件的需求势必会减弱。然而，这家科技巨头并不需要达到这样的销售增长水平，才能在其近期的价格水平上仍然成为一个很好的投资。</p>
<p>以下是需要关注的数据点，以查看增长是否仍然足够强劲，值得现在购买英伟达的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1hdC1kdXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1hdC1kdXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>迹象仍然指向对英伟达芯片的强劲需求</h2>
<p>尽管英伟达的股票在过去几个月因多个催化因素强劲反弹，但投资者在今年早些时候对其中国业务的有效关闭感到有些消极。</p>
<p>人们担心由于出口限制而导致的中国销售损失的影响。英伟达在财务第一季度因其 H20 库存和因新规则限制对中国的销售而计提了 45 亿美元的费用。H20 芯片是专门为中国市场设计的，之前的出口规则实施后也进行了调整。</p>
<p>但现在，中国似乎成为了 AI 芯片销售的另一个顺风因素，因为与该国的关税和贸易进一步变化。最近的报告称，英伟达已向合同供应商 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 订购了 30 万个 H20 图形处理单元（GPU）。这是一个相当可观的芯片数量。作为参考，英伟达在 2024 年销售了约 100 万个 H20 芯片。</p>
<p>这些销售将是在对英伟达最强大的 Blackwell 芯片需求激增的环境中进行的，因为数据中心的全球增长正在扩展。英伟达的系统将支持沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚、欧洲国家以及美国 5000 亿美元的星际门项目等正在进行的 AI 数据中心项目。</p>
<h2>深入分析英伟达的销售情况</h2>
<p>这都引出了投资者在英伟达下次于 8 月 27 日发布财报时应该特别关注的内容。所有持续的数据中心增长将引领英伟达领先芯片和软件的下一波销售。这是在大科技和 AI 公司帮助推动英伟达创纪录的 114% 年增长率的前一年之后。</p>
<p>然而，收入增长已从最初的水平放缓。尽管每个季度仍在增加，但季度环比增长已平稳至约 15%，如下图所示。中国销售的损失使得最近一个季度的增长仅为 10%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLXFvcS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="447" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLXFvcS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：英伟达财报发布。图表由作者制作。</p>
<p>连续四个季度的 15% 增长将代表 75% 的年增长率。这是惊人的销售增长，对于像英伟达这样的巨型公司来说更是令人印象深刻。</p>
<p>这是投资者应该关注的英伟达财报中的指标。如果财务第一季度因中国销售中断而成为异常，而季度增长重新加速，那么即使在近期水平上，英伟达看起来也会像是一只便宜的股票。</p>
<p>最大的问题将是其增长的持续时间。只有首席执行官黄仁勋和季度报告中的评论才能回答这个问题。投资者也应该关注这些暗示，但季度数据中心的增长本身应该是继续关注英伟达的最重要财务指标。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票今年迄今已上涨约 30%，但其未来增长取决于即将于 8 月 27 日发布的 2024 财年第二季度财报。尽管去年销售额大幅增长，但由于需求减弱和竞争加剧，维持这一增长可能面临挑战。投资者应关注季度增长率，特别是数据中心销售，因为英伟达正在应对近期的挑战，包括因失去中国市场销售而产生的 45 亿美元费用。该公司已订购 30 万个 H20 GPU，表明需求强劲，尤其是在全球数据中心项目持续进行的情况下</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.26%) shares had a slow start to the year, but a strong rally that began in early April now has them up by about 30% year to date. Whether that momentum can continue will greatly depend on what the artificial intelligence (AI) leader has to say when it reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on Aug. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -2.26%) 的股票在年初表现缓慢，但自四月初开始的强劲反弹使其年初至今上涨了约 30%。这种势头能否持续将很大程度上取决于这家人工智能（AI）领导者在 8 月 27 日发布财务第二季度财报时的表现。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia more than doubled sales last year, but maintaining that level of growth would be difficult. Insatiable demand for its leading AI hardware is bound to wane as customers build inventories and competitive chips begin to appear. Yet the tech giant doesn't need to achieve that level of sales growth for it to still be a great investment at its recent price level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达去年的销售额翻了一番，但维持这样的增长水平将会很困难。由于客户建立库存以及竞争芯片开始出现，对其领先的 AI 硬件的需求势必会减弱。然而，这家科技巨头并不需要达到这样的销售增长水平，才能在其近期的价格水平上仍然成为一个很好的投资。</p>
</div><p>Here's the data point to watch to see if growth remains strong enough to justify buying Nvidia stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是需要关注的数据点，以查看增长是否仍然足够强劲，值得现在购买英伟达的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1hdC1kdXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825150%2Fnvidia-headquarters-at-dusk.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>Signs still point to strong demand for Nvidia chips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>迹象仍然指向对英伟达芯片的强劲需求</h2>
</div><p>Although Nvidia stock rallied strongly over the past several months due to several catalysts, investors turned somewhat negative earlier this year when its China business was effectively shut down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达的股票在过去几个月因多个催化因素强劲反弹，但投资者在今年早些时候对其中国业务的有效关闭感到有些消极。</p>
</div><p>The fear was the impact of lost revenue from China sales due to export restrictions. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion charge in the fiscal first quarter for its H20 inventory and canceled sales due to new rules restricting sales to China. The H20 chip was designed specifically for the China market after previous export rules were put in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们担心由于出口限制而导致的中国销售损失的影响。英伟达在财务第一季度因其 H20 库存和因新规则限制对中国的销售而计提了 45 亿美元的费用。H20 芯片是专门为中国市场设计的，之前的出口规则实施后也进行了调整。</p>
</div><p>But now China looks to be another tailwind for AI chip sales after further changes on tariffs and trade with the country. Recent reports say Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 graphics processing units (GPUs) to be manufactured by contract supplier <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>. That's a meaningful number of chips. For perspective, Nvidia sold about 1 million H20 chips in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在，中国似乎成为了 AI 芯片销售的另一个顺风因素，因为与该国的关税和贸易进一步变化。最近的报告称，英伟达已向合同供应商 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 订购了 30 万个 H20 图形处理单元（GPU）。这是一个相当可观的芯片数量。作为参考，英伟达在 2024 年销售了约 100 万个 H20 芯片。</p>
</div><p>Those sales will be in addition to a booming environment of demand for Nvidia's most powerful Blackwell chips as data center growth expands globally. Nvidia systems will support AI data center projects already in the works with Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, European nations, as well as the $500 billion Stargate Project in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些销售将是在对英伟达最强大的 Blackwell 芯片需求激增的环境中进行的，因为数据中心的全球增长正在扩展。英伟达的系统将支持沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚、欧洲国家以及美国 5000 亿美元的星际门项目等正在进行的 AI 数据中心项目。</p>
</div><h2>Drilling down on Nvidia's sales</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深入分析英伟达的销售情况</h2>
</div><p>That all leads to what investors should specifically be monitoring when Nvidia next reports earnings on Aug. 27. All of the ongoing data center growth will lead the next wave of sales for Nvidia's leading chips and software. That follows a year where big tech and AI companies helped boost Nvidia's record revenue growth by 114% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这都引出了投资者在英伟达下次于 8 月 27 日发布财报时应该特别关注的内容。所有持续的数据中心增长将引领英伟达领先芯片和软件的下一波销售。这是在大科技和 AI 公司帮助推动英伟达创纪录的 114% 年增长率的前一年之后。</p>
</div><p>Revenue growth has slowed from initial levels, though. It has still been increasing every quarter, but quarter-over-quarter increases leveled off to about 15% as the chart below indicates. The loss of China sales then reduced the most recent quarterly growth to just 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，收入增长已从最初的水平放缓。尽管每个季度仍在增加，但季度环比增长已平稳至约 15%，如下图所示。中国销售的损失使得最近一个季度的增长仅为 10%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxNTAvbnZpZGlhLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLXFvcS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825150%2Fnvidia-data-center-revenue-growth-qoq.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nvidia earnings releases. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：英伟达财报发布。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><p>Four consecutive quarters of 15% growth would represent a 75% annual growth rate. That's stellar sales growth and even more impressive for a megacap company like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>连续四个季度的 15% 增长将代表 75% 的年增长率。这是惊人的销售增长，对于像英伟达这样的巨型公司来说更是令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>That's the metric from Nvidia's earnings reports investors should focus on. If fiscal Q1 was an anomaly due to the China sales disruption and quarterly growth reaccelerates, Nvidia is going to look like a cheap stock even at recent levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是投资者应该关注的英伟达财报中的指标。如果财务第一季度因中国销售中断而成为异常，而季度增长重新加速，那么即使在近期水平上，英伟达看起来也会像是一只便宜的股票。</p>
</div><p>The biggest question will be how long its growth runway can continue. That can only be answered by CEO Jensen Huang and the commentary from the quarterly report. Investors should listen for those hints, too, but the quarterly data center growth itself should be the most important financial metric to continue to watch from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的问题将是其增长的持续时间。只有首席执行官黄仁勋和季度报告中的评论才能回答这个问题。投资者也应该关注这些暗示，但季度数据中心的增长本身应该是继续关注英伟达的最重要财务指标。</p>
</div>

The Most Important Thing for Nvidia Investors to Watch in 2025

- Nvidia 股价年初表现平平，但自 4 月以来上涨约 30%。  
- 8 月 27 日财报将揭示其 AI 硬件需求及销售增长的持续性。  
- 投资者需关注数据中心增长对未来销售的影响。  

2025 年英伟达投资者最重要的关注点