<p>在 7 月 9 日，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）成为首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。但英伟达作为唯一一家 4 万亿美元公司在领奖台上的时光不会长久。</p>
<p>一场炙热的反弹，随之而来的超预期财报和指引，使 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.41%）在 7 月 31 日突破 4 万亿美元，成为人工智能（AI）时代无可争议的重量级冠军。</p>
<p>截至 7 月 31 日市场收盘，微软年初至今上涨了 26.9%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 7.8%。微软在周一早上已退出 4 万亿美元俱乐部，但我相信它会重新回到那里。以下是微软值得进入 4 万亿美元俱乐部的三个理由，以及为什么它仍然可能是值得现在购买的成长股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODcvYS1waW5rLXBpZ2d5LWJhbmstYXNjZW5kaW5nLWludG8tdGhlLXNreS1lbWl0dGluZy1hLXBsdW1lLW9mLXNtb2tlLWFzLXRvLWlsbHVzdHJhdGUtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODcvYS1waW5rLXBpZ2d5LWJhbmstYXNjZW5kaW5nLWludG8tdGhlLXNreS1lbWl0dGluZy1hLXBsdW1lLW9mLXNtb2tlLWFzLXRvLWlsbHVzdHJhdGUtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 进入新的增长阶段</h2>
<p>市场对微软 2025 财年最后一个季度的期望很高。</p>
<p>三个月前，这家科技巨头发布了出色的业绩，并更新了 2025 财年的收入指引，预计全年收入增长 13.8%。微软不仅超越了这一目标，实现了 15% 的全年收入增长，还提升了利润率和收益。</p>
<p>微软以 45.6% 的营业利润率和 36.1% 的净利润率结束了财年，这意味着它将每一美元的收入中有 0.36 美元转化为净收入。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，微软并没有依赖收购来推动其业绩增长。相反，它一直在扩展其核心业务领域，这通常是实现收益增长的更好途径，因为这表明基础业务强劲，不需要通过收购人才和创意来支付创新成本。</p>
<h2>2. 微软正在创新</h2>
<p>对于像微软这样规模的公司来说，15% 的销售增长本身就令人印象深刻。但在扩大利润率的同时实现这一点，更是证明了微软的智能云部门正在经历由 AI 驱动的高利润增长。</p>
<p>随着微软继续建设更多数据中心，Azure 的财年收入超过了 750 亿美元。在 7 月 30 日的财报电话会议上，微软表示它继续引领 AI 基础设施浪潮，现在运营的数据中心数量超过任何其他云服务提供商。</p>
<p>微软正在建设更大、更高效的数据中心，以处理 AI 工作负载。它正在开发推进其 AI 产品的工具，例如用于公共和私有云的 Microsoft Sovereign Cloud 和数据与分析平台 Microsoft Fabric，同时也在推进对量子计算的长期投资。</p>
<p>在云服务之外，微软 Copilot 继续扩展，月活跃用户超过 1 亿。在财报电话会议上，微软讨论了一些公司最初试用 Copilot 后，已将订单扩展到企业级。快速的采用反映出 Copilot 正成为 Microsoft 365 用户的日常工具。</p>
<p>微软的独特之处在于，它正在为特定于 AI 的工作流程开发全新的工具，同时也在升级传统软件，如 Microsoft 365，以增强其功能。在改善现有业务核心方面的创新，使微软取得了令人瞩目的成果，这也是公司在面对艰难比较时仍能快速增长收入和利润率的原因。</p>
<h2>3. 投资正在回报</h2>
<p>微软的收益增长并非易事。公司一直在研发、资本支出（capex）和运营费用上投入资源，并且股权激励也大幅增加。但微软能够使这些投资获得回报。</p>
<p>太多时候，公司会进入扩张期，变得贪婪，投入资源于最终成为资金黑洞的想法。这种情况在经济下行期间可能会放大损失。例如，<strong>英特尔</strong>（NASDAQ: INTC）的垂直整合创造了一个更资本密集的商业模式。未能跟上采用新半导体技术以在更小芯片上打包更多晶体管的竞争对手，导致英特尔进一步落后。</p>
<p>单独增加资本支出并不足够。一家公司必须投资于正确的想法，并使这些想法在长期内对基础业务产生益处，而不仅仅是导致暂时的收益激增。</p>
<p>微软在资本配置方面表现出色，同时不忽视其财务健康。</p>
<p>例如，在 2025 财年，微软的现金及现金等价物在资产负债表上的余额比 2024 财年末多出 119 亿美元——尽管其费用和股息都在增长。然而，自由现金流增长了 10%，而运营现金流因资本支出增加而增长了 15%。</p>
<p>微软预计在当前季度的资本支出为 300 亿美元。作为参考，最新季度的资本支出为 242 亿美元。</p>
<p>总之，微软迄今为止能够将创纪录的支出转化为创纪录的收益，这推动了其创纪录的股价。但其资本支出增长的速度正进入未知领域，这将给微软带来更大的压力，以交付结果。</p>
<h2>微软的上涨是合理的</h2>
<p>华尔街一直在奖励那些实现 AI 驱动增长的公司，而微软正处于这一浪潮的前沿。微软的超预期季度和指引表明，它在长期投资上更加努力——但它能够做到这一点，正如其稳固的资产负债表所证明的那样。它继续以比收入增长更快的速度增长收益，这意味着微软在追求收入增长时并没有妥协效率。</p>
<p>微软在资本配置方面做得非常出色。只要这种情况没有改变，微软很可能仍然是华尔街的宠儿。但如果它开始显示出未能将支出转化为收益的迹象，我不会感到惊讶看到股价下跌。</p>
<p>总的来说，对于那些认同微软在人工智能领域激进策略并愿意接受其较高估值的投资者来说，微软仍然值得购买和持有。</p>

微软

英伟达

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软已与英伟达一起加入了 4 万亿美元市值俱乐部，这得益于其强劲的收益和智能云部门的增长。该公司报告了 2025 财年的 15% 收入增长，运营和利润率表现令人印象深刻。微软在人工智能和云基础设施上的投资正在获得回报，因为它在人工智能能力方面处于领先地位，并扩大了 Microsoft Copilot 等工具的用户基础。尽管支出增加，微软仍保持强劲的现金流和财务健康，定位为值得考虑的成长股</p>

<p>On July 9, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) became the first company to reach $4 trillion in market cap. But Nvidia's stint as the lone company on the $4 trillion podium wouldn't last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 7 月 9 日，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）成为首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。但英伟达作为唯一一家 4 万亿美元公司在领奖台上的时光不会长久。</p>
</div><p>A scorching rally, followed by blowout earnings report and guidance, springboarded <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 2.41%) above $4 trillion on July 31 -- making these two tech giants the undisputed heavyweight champs in the age of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一场炙热的反弹，随之而来的超预期财报和指引，使 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.41%）在 7 月 31 日突破 4 万亿美元，成为人工智能（AI）时代无可争议的重量级冠军。</p>
</div><p>As of market close on July 31, Microsoft was up 26.9% year to date compared to a 7.8% gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. Microsoft had dropped out of the $4 trillion club by Monday morning, but I'm sure it will get back there. Here are three reasons Microsoft deserves to be in the $4 trillion club and why it could still be a growth stock worth buying now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 7 月 31 日市场收盘，微软年初至今上涨了 26.9%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 7.8%。微软在周一早上已退出 4 万亿美元俱乐部，但我相信它会重新回到那里。以下是微软值得进入 4 万亿美元俱乐部的三个理由，以及为什么它仍然可能是值得现在购买的成长股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODcvYS1waW5rLXBpZ2d5LWJhbmstYXNjZW5kaW5nLWludG8tdGhlLXNreS1lbWl0dGluZy1hLXBsdW1lLW9mLXNtb2tlLWFzLXRvLWlsbHVzdHJhdGUtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827687%2Fa-pink-piggy-bank-ascending-into-the-sky-emitting-a-plume-of-smoke-as-to-illustrate-investing-success.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Entering a new growth gear</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 进入新的增长阶段</h2>
</div><p>Expectations were high for Microsoft's final quarter of fiscal 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对微软 2025 财年最后一个季度的期望很高。</p>
</div><p>Three months ago, the tech giant delivered fantastic results and updated its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance, calling for a 13.8% increase in full-year revenue. Not only did Microsoft surpass that target with 15% full-year revenue growth, but it also boosted margins and earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三个月前，这家科技巨头发布了出色的业绩，并更新了 2025 财年的收入指引，预计全年收入增长 13.8%。微软不仅超越了这一目标，实现了 15% 的全年收入增长，还提升了利润率和收益。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft finished the fiscal year with a 45.6% operating margin and a 36.1% profit margin -- meaning it is converting $0.36 of every dollar in revenue into net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软以 45.6% 的营业利润率和 36.1% 的净利润率结束了财年，这意味着它将每一美元的收入中有 0.36 美元转化为净收入。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth mentioning that Microsoft hasn't been relying on acquisitions to fuel its higher numbers. Rather, it has been expanding its core business segments -- which tends to be a better path to earnings growth because it shows the underlying business is strong and doesn't need to pay for innovation by acquiring talent and ideas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，微软并没有依赖收购来推动其业绩增长。相反，它一直在扩展其核心业务领域，这通常是实现收益增长的更好途径，因为这表明基础业务强劲，不需要通过收购人才和创意来支付创新成本。</p>
</div><h2>2. Microsoft is innovating</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 微软正在创新</h2>
</div><p>Growing sales at 15% is impressive on its own for a company the size of Microsoft. But doing so while also expanding margins is a testament to Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment, where Microsoft is experiencing high-margin growth fueled by AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像微软这样规模的公司来说，15% 的销售增长本身就令人印象深刻。但在扩大利润率的同时实现这一点，更是证明了微软的智能云部门正在经历由 AI 驱动的高利润增长。</p>
</div><p>Azure surpassed $75 billion in fiscal-year revenue as Microsoft continues building more data centers. On the earnings call on July 30, Microsoft said it continues to lead the AI infrastructure wave and now operates more data centers than any other cloud provider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着微软继续建设更多数据中心，Azure 的财年收入超过了 750 亿美元。在 7 月 30 日的财报电话会议上，微软表示它继续引领 AI 基础设施浪潮，现在运营的数据中心数量超过任何其他云服务提供商。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is building larger and more efficient data centers that can handle AI workloads. It is developing tools that are advancing its AI offerings, such as Microsoft Sovereign Cloud for public and private clouds and data and analytics platform Microsoft Fabric, and also pushing forward long-term bets on quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软正在建设更大、更高效的数据中心，以处理 AI 工作负载。它正在开发推进其 AI 产品的工具，例如用于公共和私有云的 Microsoft Sovereign Cloud 和数据与分析平台 Microsoft Fabric，同时也在推进对量子计算的长期投资。</p>
</div><p>Outside cloud services, Microsoft Copilot continues to expand -- surpassing 100 million monthly active users. On the earnings call, Microsoft discussed how some companies initially tried out Copilot and have since expanded their orders to the enterprise level. The rapid adoption reflects the fact that Copilot is becoming an everyday tool for Microsoft 365 users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在云服务之外，微软 Copilot 继续扩展，月活跃用户超过 1 亿。在财报电话会议上，微软讨论了一些公司最初试用 Copilot 后，已将订单扩展到企业级。快速的采用反映出 Copilot 正成为 Microsoft 365 用户的日常工具。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is unique because it is developing entirely new tools for AI-specific workflows, but it is also upgrading legacy software, like Microsoft 365, to make it more powerful. Innovating while improving core aspects of the existing business has given Microsoft impressive results, and it's why the company is growing revenue and margins quickly despite tough comps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的独特之处在于，它正在为特定于 AI 的工作流程开发全新的工具，同时也在升级传统软件，如 Microsoft 365，以增强其功能。在改善现有业务核心方面的创新，使微软取得了令人瞩目的成果，这也是公司在面对艰难比较时仍能快速增长收入和利润率的原因。</p>
</div><h2>3. Investments are paying off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 投资正在回报</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's earnings growth hasn't come cheap. The company has been pouring resources into research and development, capital expenditures (capex), and operating expenses, and it has seen a surge in stock-based compensation. But Microsoft has been able to make these investments pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的收益增长并非易事。公司一直在研发、资本支出（capex）和运营费用上投入资源，并且股权激励也大幅增加。但微软能够使这些投资获得回报。</p>
</div><p>Too often, companies will enter a period of expansion, get greedy, and throw resources at ideas that end up being money pits. This position can amplify losses during a downturn. For example, <strong>Intel</strong>'s (NASDAQ: INTC) vertical integration created a more capital-intensive business model. Failing to keep pace with competition that was adopting new semiconductor technology to pack more transistors onto smaller chips led to Intel's falling even further behind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>太多时候，公司会进入扩张期，变得贪婪，投入资源于最终成为资金黑洞的想法。这种情况在经济下行期间可能会放大损失。例如，<strong>英特尔</strong>（NASDAQ: INTC）的垂直整合创造了一个更资本密集的商业模式。未能跟上采用新半导体技术以在更小芯片上打包更多晶体管的竞争对手，导致英特尔进一步落后。</p>
</div><p>Ramping up capex on its own isn't good enough. A company must invest in the right ideas and make those ideas benefit the underlying business over the long term, not just result in temporary earnings spikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单独增加资本支出并不足够。一家公司必须投资于正确的想法，并使这些想法在长期内对基础业务产生益处，而不仅仅是导致暂时的收益激增。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is putting on a clinic in capital allocation without neglecting its financial health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在资本配置方面表现出色，同时不忽视其财务健康。</p>
</div><p>For example, in fiscal 2025, Microsoft finished with $11.9 billion more in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet than at the end of fiscal 2024 -- and that's despite growing its expenses and dividend. However, free cash flow grew at 10% compared to 15% growth in operating cash flow as a result of higher capex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在 2025 财年，微软的现金及现金等价物在资产负债表上的余额比 2024 财年末多出 119 亿美元——尽管其费用和股息都在增长。然而，自由现金流增长了 10%，而运营现金流因资本支出增加而增长了 15%。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is guiding for $30 billion in capex in its current quarter. For context, capex in its latest quarter was $24.2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软预计在当前季度的资本支出为 300 亿美元。作为参考，最新季度的资本支出为 242 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Microsoft has so far been able to convert record spending into record earnings, which is driving its record stock price. But the pace of its capex spending is entering uncharted waters, which will put more pressure on Microsoft to deliver results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，微软迄今为止能够将创纪录的支出转化为创纪录的收益，这推动了其创纪录的股价。但其资本支出增长的速度正进入未知领域，这将给微软带来更大的压力，以交付结果。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's run-up is justified</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的上涨是合理的</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street has been rewarding companies delivering AI-driven growth, and Microsoft has been at the forefront of that wave. Microsoft's blowout quarter and guidance suggest that it is pushing even harder on long-term investments -- but it can afford to do so, as evidenced by its rock-solid balance sheet. It continues to grow earnings faster than revenue, meaning that Microsoft isn't compromising efficiency in the pursuit of revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街一直在奖励那些实现 AI 驱动增长的公司，而微软正处于这一浪潮的前沿。微软的超预期季度和指引表明，它在长期投资上更加努力——但它能够做到这一点，正如其稳固的资产负债表所证明的那样。它继续以比收入增长更快的速度增长收益，这意味着微软在追求收入增长时并没有妥协效率。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft has done a masterful job allocating capital. Until that changes, Microsoft will likely remain a Wall Street darling. But if it starts showing signs of failing to convert that spending into earnings, it wouldn't surprise me to see the stock sell off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在资本配置方面做得非常出色。只要这种情况没有改变，微软很可能仍然是华尔街的宠儿。但如果它开始显示出未能将支出转化为收益的迹象，我不会感到惊讶看到股价下跌。</p>
</div><p>All told, Microsoft is still worth buying and holding for investors who agree with its aggressive approach to AI and are willing to accept its higher valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，对于那些认同微软在人工智能领域激进策略并愿意接受其较高估值的投资者来说，微软仍然值得购买和持有。</p>
</div>

3 Reasons Why Microsoft Just Joined Nvidia in the $4 Trillion Club

- 微软于 7 月 31 日市值突破 4 万亿美元，成为 AI 时代的领军企业。  
- 财报显示，微软实现 15% 的全年收入增长，运营利润率达 45.6%。  
- 公司持续投资于研发和资本支出，推动创新与盈利能力提升。  

微软为何加入英伟达，成为 4 万亿美元俱乐部的 3 个原因