<p>在去年成为唯一一只表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 “七大巨头” 股票后，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.18%）在 2025 年强势回归。该公司以另一份强劲的财报结束了其财政年度，推动了股价上涨。截至目前，该股年内上涨超过 25%。</p>
<p>让我们更仔细地看看这家科技巨头的财政第四季度业绩和前景，以判断股价的势头是否能够持续，或者是否是时候获利了结。</p>
<h2><strong>Azure 再次引领潮流</strong></h2>
<p>微软的云计算部门 Azure 在结束财政年度时表现强劲，报告收入增长了惊人的 39%。这是 Azure 连续第八个季度收入增长超过 30%，远高于其 34% 至 35% 的增长预期。公司将强劲的表现归因于其核心基础设施业务的加速增长，主要来自其最大客户。</p>
<p>尽管增长巨大，微软表示需求仍然超过其当前的产能，并且在财政年度的上半年将受到产能限制。它预计在财政第一季度，Azure 的收入将在不变货币下增长 37%。</p>
<p>除了人工智能（AI）外，公司还指出量子计算是云计算增长的下一个潜在加速器。它还与 Atom Computing 合作，部署了全球首个可操作的二级量子计算机。</p>
<p>整体 “智能云” 收入（包括 Azure）同比增长 26%，达到 299 亿美元。GitHub 也是该部门的一个强劲贡献者，GitHub Copilot 用户同比激增 75%，超过 2000 万用户。</p>
<p>其他部门也显示出强劲的增长。生产力和业务流程部门——包括 Microsoft 365 和 LinkedIn——的收入同比增长 16%，达到 331 亿美元。该部门的四个主要解决方案（见下表）均实现了稳健增长，其中 Microsoft 365 消费者产品收入增长 21%，得益于早期的提价和 8% 的用户增长。微软的 Copilot 应用家族在其商业和消费者解决方案中月活跃用户超过 1 亿。Dynamics 产品（该部门的一部分）收入增长 18%，主要受 Dynamics 365 收入增长 23% 的推动。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Microsoft 365 商业版</th>
<th>Microsoft 365 消费者版</th>
<th>LinkedIn</th>
<th>Dynamics</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入增长</td>
<td>16%</td>
<td>21%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：微软新闻稿。</p>
<p>其 “更个人化计算” 部门——包括 Windows 和 Xbox——的收入同比增长 9%，达到 135 亿美元。该部门的搜索和新闻广告业务表现突出，收入增长 21%。公司表示，增长得益于搜索量和每次搜索收入的增加，以及第三方合作伙伴关系。与此同时，Windows OEM 和设备收入增长 3%。</p>
<p>微软的总收入同比跃升 18%，达到 764 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）增长 24%，达到 3.65 美元。该结果轻松超出分析师对 738 亿美元收入和 3.37 美元 EPS 的预期，数据由 LSEG 汇编。</p>
<p>展望未来，公司预计财政第一季度收入在 747 亿美元至 758 亿美元之间，高于 741 亿美元的共识预期。</p>
<p>公司计划在财政第一季度支出 300 亿美元的资本支出（capex），并表示全年资本支出将高于 2025 财政年度，尽管增长速度会放缓。它还将更加重视短期资产，如图形处理单元（GPU），这将更直接地转化为收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2MDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="432" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2MDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<h2><strong>这只股票值得买吗？</strong></h2>
<p>尽管微软一直在实现稳健增长，但在财政第四季度又上升了一个层次。几乎所有因素在这一季度都结合在一起，导致公司发布了很长时间以来最好的季度报告之一。</p>
<p>Azure 引领潮流，面前的机会依然巨大。然而，云计算并不是微软唯一的增长驱动力。其 AI 助手 Copilot 也在稳步增长，推动了其他业务的增长。</p>
<p>从估值来看，该股目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 35 倍，基于 2026 财政年度的分析师预期。虽然这并不便宜，但其 PEG（市盈率与增长比）低于 1.2 倍，对于一家收入增长加速且在 OpenAI 中拥有良好股份的公司来说是合理的。一般来说，正 PEG 比率低于 1 的股票被视为被低估，尽管成长股通常会在这一水平之上交易。</p>
<p>总体而言，我认为微软仍然是一个稳健的长期持有，且其增长令人兴奋。然而，我不一定会在当前估值下追逐该股，更倾向于在回调时购买。</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的股票在 2025 年上涨超过 25%，主要受到强劲的财年第四季度业绩推动，尤其是其 Azure 云计算部门，报告收入增长 39%。公司的总收入增长 18%，达到 764 亿美元，每股收益增长 24%，达到 3.65 美元，超出分析师预期。微软预计将继续增长，财年第一季度的收入指导在 747 亿美元到 758 亿美元之间。尽管前瞻市盈率高达 35，但其市盈增长比率低于 1.2，表明合理的估值，使其成为一个稳健的长期投资</p>

<p>After being the only &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock to trail the performance of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> last year, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 2.18%) has come out swinging in 2025. The company closed out its fiscal year with another strong earnings report, helping lift its stock price. The stock is now up more than 25% on the year, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在去年成为唯一一只表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 “七大巨头” 股票后，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 2.18%）在 2025 年强势回归。该公司以另一份强劲的财报结束了其财政年度，推动了股价上涨。截至目前，该股年内上涨超过 25%。</p>
</div><p>Let's take a closer look at the tech giant's fiscal fourth quarter results and prospects to see if the stock's momentum can continue, or if it's time to take some profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们更仔细地看看这家科技巨头的财政第四季度业绩和前景，以判断股价的势头是否能够持续，或者是否是时候获利了结。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Azure leads the way again</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Azure 再次引领潮流</strong></h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's cloud computing unit, Azure, was in beast mode to close out its fiscal year, reporting a whopping 39% increase in revenue. It was the eighth straight quarter that Azure revenue has risen by 30% or more, and well above its forecast for 34% to 35% growth. The company credited the strong performance to accelerated growth in its core infrastructure business, primarily from its largest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的云计算部门 Azure 在结束财政年度时表现强劲，报告收入增长了惊人的 39%。这是 Azure 连续第八个季度收入增长超过 30%，远高于其 34% 至 35% 的增长预期。公司将强劲的表现归因于其核心基础设施业务的加速增长，主要来自其最大客户。</p>
</div><p>Despite the huge growth, Microsoft said demand still remains above its current capacity and that it will be capacity-constrained through the first half of its fiscal year. It projected Azure revenue to grow by 37% in constant currencies in fiscal Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管增长巨大，微软表示需求仍然超过其当前的产能，并且在财政年度的上半年将受到产能限制。它预计在财政第一季度，Azure 的收入将在不变货币下增长 37%。</p>
</div><p>In addition to artificial intelligence (AI), the company also called out quantum computing as the next big potential accelerator for cloud computing growth. It is also deploying the world's first operational Level 2 Quantum computer in partnership with Atom Computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了人工智能（AI）外，公司还指出量子计算是云计算增长的下一个潜在加速器。它还与 Atom Computing 合作，部署了全球首个可操作的二级量子计算机。</p>
</div><p>Overall &#34;intelligent cloud&#34; revenue, which includes Azure, climbed 26% year over year to $29.9 billion. GitHub was another strong contributor to this segment, with GitHub Copilot users soaring 75% year over year to more than 20 million users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整体 “智能云” 收入（包括 Azure）同比增长 26%，达到 299 亿美元。GitHub 也是该部门的一个强劲贡献者，GitHub Copilot 用户同比激增 75%，超过 2000 万用户。</p>
</div><p>Other segments also showed strong growth. The productivity and business processes segment -- home to Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn -- saw revenue climb 16% year over year to $33.1 billion. Growth was solid across its four main solutions in the segment (in the table below), led by a 21% jump in Microsoft 365 Consumer product revenue, helped by an earlier price increase and 8% subscriber growth. Microsoft's family of Copilot apps surpassed 100 million monthly active users across both its commercial and consumer solutions. Dynamics products, which is part of the segment, increased revenue by 18%, driven by Dynamics 365 revenue growth of 23%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他部门也显示出强劲的增长。生产力和业务流程部门——包括 Microsoft 365 和 LinkedIn——的收入同比增长 16%，达到 331 亿美元。该部门的四个主要解决方案（见下表）均实现了稳健增长，其中 Microsoft 365 消费者产品收入增长 21%，得益于早期的提价和 8% 的用户增长。微软的 Copilot 应用家族在其商业和消费者解决方案中月活跃用户超过 1 亿。Dynamics 产品（该部门的一部分）收入增长 18%，主要受 Dynamics 365 收入增长 23% 的推动。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Microsoft 365 Commercial</th>
<th>Microsoft 365 Consumer</th>
<th>LinkedIn</th>
<th>Dynamics</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth</td>
<td>16%</td>
<td>21%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Microsoft 365 商业版</th>
<th>Microsoft 365 消费者版</th>
<th>LinkedIn</th>
<th>Dynamics</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入增长</td>
<td>16%</td>
<td>21%</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>18%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Microsoft press release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：微软新闻稿。</p>
</div><p>Revenue in its &#34;more personal computing&#34; segment -- home to Windows and Xbox -- rose 9% year over year at $13.5 billion. The search and news advertising business, which is also part of the segment, led the way with revenue climbing 21%. The company said the growth was driven by increases in both volume and revenue per search, as well as third-party partnerships. Windows OEM and device revenue, meanwhile, increased by 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其 “更个人化计算” 部门——包括 Windows 和 Xbox——的收入同比增长 9%，达到 135 亿美元。该部门的搜索和新闻广告业务表现突出，收入增长 21%。公司表示，增长得益于搜索量和每次搜索收入的增加，以及第三方合作伙伴关系。与此同时，Windows OEM 和设备收入增长 3%。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's total revenue jumped by 18% year over year to $76.4 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) climbing 24% to $3.65. The results easily topped analyst estimates calling for $73.8 billion in revenue and $3.37 in EPS, as compiled by LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的总收入同比跃升 18%，达到 764 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）增长 24%，达到 3.65 美元。该结果轻松超出分析师对 738 亿美元收入和 3.37 美元 EPS 的预期，数据由 LSEG 汇编。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, the company guided for fiscal Q1 revenue of between $74.7 billion to $75.8 billion, which was above the $74.1 billion consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，公司预计财政第一季度收入在 747 亿美元至 758 亿美元之间，高于 741 亿美元的共识预期。</p>
</div><p>The company plans to spend $30 billion in capital expenditure (capex) in fiscal Q1 and said full-year capex would be greater than fiscal year 2025, although grow at a slower pace. It will also put more emphasis on shorter-lived assets, like graphics processing units (GPUs), which will translate more directly to revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司计划在财政第一季度支出 300 亿美元的资本支出（capex），并表示全年资本支出将高于 2025 财政年度，尽管增长速度会放缓。它还将更加重视短期资产，如图形处理单元（GPU），这将更直接地转化为收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2MDkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4Mzc4MDk5NS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827609%2Fgettyimages-1483780995.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is the stock a buy?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>这只股票值得买吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>While Microsoft has been seeing solid growth, it took it to another level in fiscal Q4. Nearly everything came together in the quarter, leading to one of the company's best quarterly reports in a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管微软一直在实现稳健增长，但在财政第四季度又上升了一个层次。几乎所有因素在这一季度都结合在一起，导致公司发布了很长时间以来最好的季度报告之一。</p>
</div><p>Azure is leading the way, and the opportunity in front of it remains huge. However, cloud computing wasn't Microsoft's only growth driver. Its AI-assistant copilots are seeing solid momentum, helping drive growth in other parts of its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Azure 引领潮流，面前的机会依然巨大。然而，云计算并不是微软唯一的增长驱动力。其 AI 助手 Copilot 也在稳步增长，推动了其他业务的增长。</p>
</div><p>Looking at valuation, the stock now trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 times based on fiscal 2026 analyst estimates. While that isn't cheap, its PEG (price/earnings-to-growth) ratio of under 1.2 times is reasonable for a company seeing accelerating revenue growth that also owns a nice stake in OpenAI. Stocks with positive PEG ratios below 1 are generally viewed as undervalued, although growth stocks will often trade above this level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值来看，该股目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 35 倍，基于 2026 财政年度的分析师预期。虽然这并不便宜，但其 PEG（市盈率与增长比）低于 1.2 倍，对于一家收入增长加速且在 OpenAI 中拥有良好股份的公司来说是合理的。一般来说，正 PEG 比率低于 1 的股票被视为被低估，尽管成长股通常会在这一水平之上交易。</p>
</div><p>Overall, I think Microsoft remains a solid long-term holding, and the growth it has been putting up is exciting. However, I wouldn't necessarily chase the stock at its current valuation, and would prefer it on a pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，我认为微软仍然是一个稳健的长期持有，且其增长令人兴奋。然而，我不一定会在当前估值下追逐该股，更倾向于在回调时购买。</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock Soars on the Back of AI. Can the Momentum Continue or Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?

- 微软在 2025 财年第四季度报告中，收入同比增长 18% 至 764 亿美元。  
- Azure 云计算部门收入增长 39%，连续八个季度增长超过 30%。  
- 公司预计 Q1 收入在 747 亿至 758 亿美元之间，超出市场预期。  

微软的股票因人工智能的推动而大幅上涨。这样的势头能否持续，还是现在买入已经为时已晚？