<p><strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 经历了一场近三年的疯狂牛市。确实，这一基准指数经历了起伏，尤其是在四月初，当时唐纳德·特朗普总统首次宣布关税时，股市大幅下跌。但标准普尔 500 指数仅用了几个月就恢复了，目前今年上涨了 6%。</p>
<p>这紧随 2023 年和 2024 年的强劲表现，期间该指数分别上涨了 24% 和 23%。随着市场持续小幅上涨，距离 2025 年还有大约五个月，标准普尔 500 指数能否实现不可思议的连续三年上涨超过 20%？历史表明这不太可能，但一位华尔街策略师认为这将会发生。</p>
<h2>在近 100 年中仅发生过一次</h2>
<p>2023 年和 2024 年股市的表现令人难以置信，但如果标准普尔 500 指数能够在此基础上再上涨 13%，那将是几乎前所未有的。回顾近一个世纪，这样的连胜纪录仅发生过一次。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>三十年前，在互联网泡沫到来之前，标准普尔 500 指数在 1995 年至 1998 年间年均价格涨幅超过 20%，而在 1999 年也仅差不到半个百分点。</p>
<p>一些人认为，当前股市的轨迹与 1990 年代的经历相似。在那段时间，互联网热潮激发了巨大的热情，投资者正确预测新技术将改变社会。可他们忽视了技术变革往往不会一帆风顺，而 1990 年代末也是一个低利率的时期。</p>
<p>如今，股市受到人工智能热潮的推动，这使得一小部分公司达到了惊人的估值。有些公司的市值已超过数万亿美元。虽然利率并不算低，但可以说市场仍然受益于十年的零利率政策和大量的量化宽松。</p>
<h2>这位华尔街分析师预计 2025 年下半年将出现反弹</h2>
<p>最近，<strong>奥本海默</strong> 的策略师约翰·斯托尔茨夫发布了一份研究报告，预测标准普尔 500 指数将在年底前达到 7100 点，这意味着 2025 年将上涨约 21%。</p>
<p>斯托尔茨夫的部分预测与特朗普政府在贸易谈判上取得的进展有关。根据斯托尔茨夫的说法，交易已经开始达成，日本和欧盟之间的协议足以为投资者提供清晰度，消除阻碍市场进一步上涨的不确定性。作为交易的一部分，美国将对来自日本和欧盟的商品征收 15% 的关税，两者也将在美国进行数千亿的投资。</p>
<p>“基本面正在改善。看看今天的 [3%] GDP 数据。虽然并不完美，但肯定比那些认为我们将进入衰退的人要好得多。此外，迄今为止，盈利预期不仅达到了预期，还超出了预期。” 斯托尔茨夫在最近接受 Yahoo! Finance 采访时表示。</p>
<p>截至目前，特朗普刚刚对一些国家实施了新的更高关税。然而，情况仍在变化，因此这些更高的关税可能并不是最终的。</p>
<h2>仍然存在短期风险</h2>
<p>我同意斯托尔茨夫的看法，考虑到最近的经济数据，衰退在短期内似乎不太可能。然而，也有数据显示宏观经济条件开始恶化。</p>
<p>如果通货膨胀未能降至美联储所希望的 2% 目标，还有另一个重大风险。毕竟，强劲的第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）报告表明经济活动相当强劲。关税率也仍高于预期，大多数在 15% 或以上，这很可能会导致一次性通货膨胀激增。如果美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为通货膨胀失控，他今年不会降息，除非就业市场出现真正的下滑。如果今年没有降息，这可能会削弱市场的动力。</p>
<p>最终，标准普尔 500 指数可能会勉强实现一个良好的年度表现，但在目前的情况下，再次实现 20% 以上的涨幅更像是一个乐观的情景，而不是基本情景。</p>

奥本海默控股

<p>标准普尔 500 指数经历了一波显著的牛市，2023 年上涨了 24%，2024 年上涨了 23%。目前在 2025 年上涨了 6%，该指数面临着实现连续第三年超过 20% 涨幅的挑战，这在近一个世纪内仅实现过一次。奥本海默的策略师约翰·斯托尔茨夫预测到年底将上涨至 7,100 点，理由是基本面改善和贸易谈判。然而，风险依然存在，包括通货膨胀和潜在的联邦储备利率决策，使得再次获得 20% 的涨幅更像是一个乐观的情景，而非基本情况</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has been on a wild, nearly three-year bull run. Sure, the benchmark index has experienced its ups and downs, most notably in early April when President Donald Trump's initial tariff announcements sent stocks plunging. But it only took a few months for the S&amp;P 500 to recover, and it's now up 6% this year, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 经历了一场近三年的疯狂牛市。确实，这一基准指数经历了起伏，尤其是在四月初，当时唐纳德·特朗普总统首次宣布关税时，股市大幅下跌。但标准普尔 500 指数仅用了几个月就恢复了，目前今年上涨了 6%。</p>
</div><p>This follows strong showings in 2023 and 2024, when the index rose 24% and 23%, respectively. With the market continuing to inch higher and about five months to go in 2025, can the S&amp;P 500 do the unthinkable and rise over 20% for three consecutive years? History says it's unlikely, but one Wall Street strategist thinks it will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这紧随 2023 年和 2024 年的强劲表现，期间该指数分别上涨了 24% 和 23%。随着市场持续小幅上涨，距离 2025 年还有大约五个月，标准普尔 500 指数能否实现不可思议的连续三年上涨超过 20%？历史表明这不太可能，但一位华尔街策略师认为这将会发生。</p>
</div><h2>It's only happened one other time in nearly 100 years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在近 100 年中仅发生过一次</h2>
</div><p>The stock market's performance in 2023 and 2024 was incredible, but if the S&amp;P 500 somehow manages to claw another 13% higher from here, it would be nearly unprecedented. Looking back nearly a century, such a winning streak has only happened one other time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年和 2024 年股市的表现令人难以置信，但如果标准普尔 500 指数能够在此基础上再上涨 13%，那将是几乎前所未有的。回顾近一个世纪，这样的连胜纪录仅发生过一次。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc1ODQvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827584%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Thirty years ago, in the run-up to the dot-com bubble, the S&amp;P 500 delivered more than 20% annual price gains from 1995 through 1998, and it was less than half a percentage point shy of doing so in 1999.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三十年前，在互联网泡沫到来之前，标准普尔 500 指数在 1995 年至 1998 年间年均价格涨幅超过 20%，而在 1999 年也仅差不到半个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Some believe the stock market is currently on a similar trajectory to what it experienced in the 1990s. During that time, the internet boom created tremendous enthusiasm as investors rightly predicted the new technology would go on to transform society. What they missed is that technological disruptions rarely move in a straight line, and the late 1990s was also a time of low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人认为，当前股市的轨迹与 1990 年代的经历相似。在那段时间，互联网热潮激发了巨大的热情，投资者正确预测新技术将改变社会。可他们忽视了技术变革往往不会一帆风顺，而 1990 年代末也是一个低利率的时期。</p>
</div><p>Today, the stock market is being powered by the artificial intelligence boom, which has sent a small group of companies to meteoric valuations. Some now have multitrillion-dollar market caps. Interest rates aren't exactly low, although one could argue the market may still be riding high from a decade of zero interest rate policy and lots of quantitative easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，股市受到人工智能热潮的推动，这使得一小部分公司达到了惊人的估值。有些公司的市值已超过数万亿美元。虽然利率并不算低，但可以说市场仍然受益于十年的零利率政策和大量的量化宽松。</p>
</div><h2>This Wall Street analyst sees a back-half surge in 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这位华尔街分析师预计 2025 年下半年将出现反弹</h2>
</div><p>Recently, <strong>Oppenheimer</strong> strategist John Stoltzfus put out a research note, predicting the S&amp;P 500 would hit 7,100 by the end of the year, implying a roughly 21% move in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，<strong>奥本海默</strong> 的策略师约翰·斯托尔茨夫发布了一份研究报告，预测标准普尔 500 指数将在年底前达到 7100 点，这意味着 2025 年将上涨约 21%。</p>
</div><p>Part of Stoltzfus' call has to do with progress the Trump administration is making on trade negotiations. Deals have begun to come in and the agreements between Japan and the European Union are enough to provide clarity to investors and remove the uncertainty that has prevented the market from moving even higher, according to Stoltzfus. As part of the deals, the U.S. will impose 15% tariffs on goods from Japan and the E.U., and both will also make hundreds of billions of investments in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯托尔茨夫的部分预测与特朗普政府在贸易谈判上取得的进展有关。根据斯托尔茨夫的说法，交易已经开始达成，日本和欧盟之间的协议足以为投资者提供清晰度，消除阻碍市场进一步上涨的不确定性。作为交易的一部分，美国将对来自日本和欧盟的商品征收 15% 的关税，两者也将在美国进行数千亿的投资。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Fundamentals are improving. Look at the [3%] GDP print today. It ain't perfect, but it's certainly a lot better than the crew that was thinking we were going into a recession was thinking [...] in addition to that, you've got earnings expectations not only meeting but beyond expectations another quarter so far,&#34; Stoltzfus said on a recent interview with Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“基本面正在改善。看看今天的 [3%] GDP 数据。虽然并不完美，但肯定比那些认为我们将进入衰退的人要好得多。此外，迄今为止，盈利预期不仅达到了预期，还超出了预期。” 斯托尔茨夫在最近接受 Yahoo! Finance 采访时表示。</p>
</div><p>Trump has just imposed new higher tariff rates on some countries as of this writing. However, the situation remains fluid, so the higher rates may not be final.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，特朗普刚刚对一些国家实施了新的更高关税。然而，情况仍在变化，因此这些更高的关税可能并不是最终的。</p>
</div><h2>There's still near-term risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然存在短期风险</h2>
</div><p>I would agree with Stoltzfus that a recession seems unlikely, at least in the near term when you consider recent economic data. However, there has also been data suggesting that macro conditions are beginning to deteriorate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意斯托尔茨夫的看法，考虑到最近的经济数据，衰退在短期内似乎不太可能。然而，也有数据显示宏观经济条件开始恶化。</p>
</div><p>There's also another big risk if inflation does not fall to the Federal Reserve's preferred 2% target. After all, the strong second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report suggests that economic activity is quite robust. Tariff rates are also still coming in higher than expected, with most at 15% or above, and it's very possible this will create a one-time surge in inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will not cut rates this year if he doesn't believe inflation is under control, unless there is a real downturn in the job market. If rate cuts don't materialize this year, that could take some of the wind out of the market's sails.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通货膨胀未能降至美联储所希望的 2% 目标，还有另一个重大风险。毕竟，强劲的第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）报告表明经济活动相当强劲。关税率也仍高于预期，大多数在 15% 或以上，这很可能会导致一次性通货膨胀激增。如果美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为通货膨胀失控，他今年不会降息，除非就业市场出现真正的下滑。如果今年没有降息，这可能会削弱市场的动力。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the S&amp;P 500 could manage to eke out a solid year, but delivering another 20%-plus gain is more of a bull-case scenario than a base case, as things stand now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，标准普尔 500 指数可能会勉强实现一个良好的年度表现，但在目前的情况下，再次实现 20% 以上的涨幅更像是一个乐观的情景，而不是基本情景。</p>
</div>

Will the S&P 500 Index Do the Unthinkable and Rise at Least 20% for the 3rd Consecutive Year? History Says It's Unlikely, but 1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks It Can Happen

- 标普 500 指数经历了近三年的牛市，2023 和 2024 年分别上涨 24% 和 23%。  
- Oppenheimer 策略师预测 2025 年底标普 500 将达到 7,100 点，涨幅约 21%。  
- 经济数据改善，但高通胀和利率上升可能影响市场表现。  

标准普尔 500 指数是否会连续第三年上涨至少 20%，做出不可思议的事情？历史数据显示这不太可能，但有一位华尔街分析师认为这是可能的