<p>当你想到股市成功时，很难不想到沃伦·巴菲特。巴菲特被称为奥马哈的先知，自 1965 年以来一直掌舵 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -3.04%）（BRK.B -2.85%），但计划在今年年底以 95 岁的高龄退休。</p>
<p>自巴菲特担任伯克希尔的负责人以来，它一直是股市中最稳定的顶级表现者之一。从 1964 年到 2024 年，伯克希尔的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 1.47%），回报率超过 5500000%，而该指数的回报率大约为 39000%（这还包括再投资的股息）。这分别平均为 19.9% 和 10.4% 的年回报率。</p>
<p>随着巴菲特在年底将伯克希尔的钥匙交给格雷格·阿贝尔，许多人可能会想知道伯克希尔是否会继续保持过去六十年来的强劲表现。在我看来，答案是肯定的，我仍然全力看好这只股票。</p>
<h2>巴菲特亲自挑选格雷格·阿贝尔接任</h2>
<p>投资者已经习惯于信任巴菲特的投资决策，我计划采取同样的方式，信任他将伯克希尔交给阿贝尔。阿贝尔目前是伯克希尔哈撒韦能源（BHE）的董事长，也是伯克希尔非保险业务的副董事长，自 2000 年以来一直在公司工作。</p>
<p>阿贝尔的经验让我知道，几乎没有人比他更有资格接替巴菲特。在伯克希尔的年度会议上，巴菲特甚至表示 “格雷格会比我更成功。” 诚然，巴菲特在离开时的一部分工作是让投资者充满信心，但我坚信，如果巴菲特不觉得阿贝尔有能力继续公司的历史成功，他不会亲自挑选他。</p>
<p>在阿贝尔的领导下，BHE 的收益增长了三倍，他监督了超过 160 亿美元的收购。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔庞大的现金储备为其提供了很大的财务灵活性</h2>
<p>伯克希尔以其收购和对上市公司的投资而闻名，但在过去几年中，这两方面的活动都放缓了。在第一季度末，伯克希尔拥有超过 3470 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和短期美国国债。这超过了 <strong>美国银行</strong>、<strong>雪佛龙</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong>（伯克希尔前五大股票持仓中的三家）的单独市值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="609" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 现金和短期投资（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这笔巨额现金储备为阿贝尔接任后提供了很大的财务灵活性。我不指望他仅仅为了使用现金而动用它，但这确实为潜在机会、股票回购以及未来可能的股息（伯克希尔从未支付过的东西）打开了大门。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的核心业务在没有他干预的情况下运作</h2>
<p>巴菲特以让伯克希尔子公司的领导者——如盖可、BHE、BNSF 铁路、Pilot 旅行中心及其他几家公司——在日常运营中不受干扰而闻名。这意味着即使没有巴菲特的领导，这些企业在现有领导下也应该能够顺利运营。</p>
<p>这种做法一直是伯克希尔商业的长期战略。通过消除寻求巴菲特批准的需要或避免不必要的公司官僚主义，这些企业能够迅速做出决策，并依靠各自领域的专家。我不认为这种情况会改变。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔在不费吹灰之力的情况下赚取数十亿</h2>
<p>凭借对众多上市公司的大额持股，伯克希尔已将自己定位为仅通过股息就能赚取数十亿。以下是其前五大持股及其在这些公司当前季度股息下的预期收入：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>持股数量</th>
<th>季度股息</th>
<th>季度收到的股息</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>苹果</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美国运通</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美国银行</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>可口可乐</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>雪佛龙</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：伯克希尔哈撒韦 13F 文件。持股数量截至 3 月 31 日。</p>
<p>仅从这五项持股，伯克希尔每季度就能收到超过 7.84 亿美元的股息。按年计算，这超过 31 亿美元，这比许多标准普尔 500 公司赚取的收入还要多。这是随着公司增加年度分红而逐渐增长的收入，并且不需要伯克希尔的任何运营监督。</p>
<p>股息只是让我对增持伯克希尔充满信心的因素之一，无论谁在领导。这是一家为长期成功而建立的强大企业集团。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦即将迎来重大领导层变动，沃伦·巴菲特计划在 95 岁时退休，将接力棒交给格雷格·阿贝尔。巴菲特自 1965 年以来一直领导公司，取得了显著的股市成功。阿贝尔拥有丰富的经验，预计将维持这一成功。伯克希尔雄厚的现金储备为未来的机会提供了财务灵活性。公司的子公司独立运营，确保了顺利的运营。尽管领导层发生变动，伯克希尔还受益于其主要持股的可观分红收入，增强了对其长期生存能力的信心</p>

<p>When you think of stock market success, it's hard not to think about Warren Buffett. Buffett, known as the Oracle of Omaha, has been at the helm of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -3.04%) (BRK.B -2.85%) since 1965 but plans to retire at the end of this year at the age of 95.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当你想到股市成功时，很难不想到沃伦·巴菲特。巴菲特被称为奥马哈的先知，自 1965 年以来一直掌舵 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -3.04%）（BRK.B -2.85%），但计划在今年年底以 95 岁的高龄退休。</p>
</div><p>Since Buffett has been the head of Berkshire, it has been one of the stock market's most consistent top performers. From 1964 to 2024, Berkshire has outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.47%), returning more than 5,500,000% compared to the index's roughly 39,000% (and that's including reinvested dividends). This averages out to 19.9% and 10.4% annual returns, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自巴菲特担任伯克希尔的负责人以来，它一直是股市中最稳定的顶级表现者之一。从 1964 年到 2024 年，伯克希尔的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 1.47%），回报率超过 5500000%，而该指数的回报率大约为 39000%（这还包括再投资的股息）。这分别平均为 19.9% 和 10.4% 的年回报率。</p>
</div><p>With Buffett leaving the keys to Berkshire to Greg Abel at the end of the year, many may wonder if Berkshire will continue to be the juggernaut it has been during the past six decades. In my opinion, the answer is yes, and I'm still all in on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着巴菲特在年底将伯克希尔的钥匙交给格雷格·阿贝尔，许多人可能会想知道伯克希尔是否会继续保持过去六十年来的强劲表现。在我看来，答案是肯定的，我仍然全力看好这只股票。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett handpicked Greg Abel to succeed him</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特亲自挑选格雷格·阿贝尔接任</h2>
</div><p>Investors have grown accustomed to trusting Buffett's investing moves, and I plan to take the same approach, trusting him to leave Berkshire in great hands with Abel. Abel is currently the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Energy (BHE) and vice chairman of Berkshire's non-insurance operations and has been with the company since 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者已经习惯于信任巴菲特的投资决策，我计划采取同样的方式，信任他将伯克希尔交给阿贝尔。阿贝尔目前是伯克希尔哈撒韦能源（BHE）的董事长，也是伯克希尔非保险业务的副董事长，自 2000 年以来一直在公司工作。</p>
</div><p>Abel's experience lets me know that few, if anybody, are as qualified to follow up Buffett. At Berkshire's annual meeting in May, Buffett even said that &#34;Greg will be more successful than I have been.&#34; Admittedly, part of Buffett's job on the way out is to instill confidence in investors, but I firmly believe Buffett wouldn't have handpicked Abel if he didn't feel as though he is more than capable of continuing the company's historical success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿贝尔的经验让我知道，几乎没有人比他更有资格接替巴菲特。在伯克希尔的年度会议上，巴菲特甚至表示 “格雷格会比我更成功。” 诚然，巴菲特在离开时的一部分工作是让投资者充满信心，但我坚信，如果巴菲特不觉得阿贝尔有能力继续公司的历史成功，他不会亲自挑选他。</p>
</div><p>Under Abel's leadership, BHE has tripled its earnings, and he has overseen more than $16 billion in acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在阿贝尔的领导下，BHE 的收益增长了三倍，他监督了超过 160 亿美元的收购。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire's large cash pile leaves it with a lot of financial flexibility</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔庞大的现金储备为其提供了很大的财务灵活性</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire is known for its acquisitions and stakes in public companies, but it has slowed down on both during the past couple of years. At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had more than $347 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury bills. That's more than the individual market caps of <strong>Bank of America</strong>, <strong>Chevron</strong>, and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> (three of Berkshire's top five stock holdings).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔以其收购和对上市公司的投资而闻名，但在过去几年中，这两方面的活动都放缓了。在第一季度末，伯克希尔拥有超过 3470 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和短期美国国债。这超过了 <strong>美国银行</strong>、<strong>雪佛龙</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong>（伯克希尔前五大股票持仓中的三家）的单独市值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57759335f7be169fc65a9a500e55c2c5.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Cash and Short Term Investments (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 现金和短期投资（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This large cash pile leaves Abel with a lot of financial flexibility once he takes over. I wouldn't expect him to deploy the cash for the sake of doing so, but it does leave the door open for potential opportunities, stock buybacks, and potentially a future dividend (something Berkshire has never paid).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔巨额现金储备为阿贝尔接任后提供了很大的财务灵活性。我不指望他仅仅为了使用现金而动用它，但这确实为潜在机会、股票回购以及未来可能的股息（伯克希尔从未支付过的东西）打开了大门。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's core businesses operate without his interference</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的核心业务在没有他干预的情况下运作</h2>
</div><p>Buffett is known for letting the leaders of Berkshire's subsidiaries -- Geico, BHE, BNSF Railway, Pilot Travel Centers, and a handful of others -- operate without interfering in their day-to-day operations. This means that even without Buffett leading the way, these businesses should continue running smoothly under their current leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特以让伯克希尔子公司的领导者——如盖可、BHE、BNSF 铁路、Pilot 旅行中心及其他几家公司——在日常运营中不受干扰而闻名。这意味着即使没有巴菲特的领导，这些企业在现有领导下也应该能够顺利运营。</p>
</div><p>This approach has been a longtime strategy in Berkshire's business. By removing the need to seek Buffett's approval or falling victim to unneeded corporate bureaucracy, these businesses are able to make quick decisions and lean on the respective experts in each field. I don't expect this to change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种做法一直是伯克希尔商业的长期战略。通过消除寻求巴菲特批准的需要或避免不必要的公司官僚主义，这些企业能够迅速做出决策，并依靠各自领域的专家。我不认为这种情况会改变。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire makes billions without lifting a finger</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔在不费吹灰之力的情况下赚取数十亿</h2>
</div><p>With a large stake in so many public companies, Berkshire has positioned itself to make billions solely from dividends. Below are its top five holdings and how much it can expect at those companies' current quarterly dividends:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凭借对众多上市公司的大额持股，伯克希尔已将自己定位为仅通过股息就能赚取数十亿。以下是其前五大持股及其在这些公司当前季度股息下的预期收入：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Shares Owed</th>
<th>Quarterly Dividend</th>
<th>Dividends Received Quarterly</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>American Express</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Coca-Cola</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Chevron</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>持股数量</th>
<th>季度股息</th>
<th>季度收到的股息</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>苹果</strong></td>
<td>300,000,000</td>
<td>$0.26</td>
<td>$78,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美国运通</strong></td>
<td>151,610,700</td>
<td>$0.82</td>
<td>$124,320,774</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>美国银行</strong></td>
<td>631,573,531</td>
<td>$0.28</td>
<td>$176,840,588</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>可口可乐</strong></td>
<td>400,000,000</td>
<td>$0.51</td>
<td>$204,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>雪佛龙</strong></td>
<td>118,6110,534</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$201,637,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing. Share amounts as of March 31.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：伯克希尔哈撒韦 13F 文件。持股数量截至 3 月 31 日。</p>
</div><p>From just five holdings, Berkshire receives more than $784 million in quarterly dividends. Annually, that's more than $3.1 billion, which is more than many S&amp;P 500 companies earn in revenue. This is income that grows over time as companies increase their annual payouts, and it doesn't require any operational oversight on Berkshire's behalf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅从这五项持股，伯克希尔每季度就能收到超过 7.84 亿美元的股息。按年计算，这超过 31 亿美元，这比许多标准普尔 500 公司赚取的收入还要多。这是随着公司增加年度分红而逐渐增长的收入，并且不需要伯克希尔的任何运营监督。</p>
</div><p>The dividend is just one part of the equation that makes me confident in loading up on Berkshire, regardless of who's leading the charge. It's a powerful conglomerate built for long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息只是让我对增持伯克希尔充满信心的因素之一，无论谁在领导。这是一家为长期成功而建立的强大企业集团。</p>
</div>

A Major Shake-Up Is Coming to Berkshire Hathaway This Year. Here's Why I'm Still All In on the Stock

- 巴菲特将于年底退休，接任者为格雷格·阿贝尔。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦自 1965 年以来表现优异，年均回报率 19.9%。  
- 公司拥有超过 3470 亿美元现金，未来有财务灵活性。

伯克希尔哈撒韦今年将发生重大变革。以下是我依然坚定持有该股票的理由