<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.27%) 是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值达到 3 万亿美元。全球约有 15 亿活跃的 iPhone 用户，这使其拥有庞大的用户基础，并与其广泛且不断增长的生态系统相连接。沃伦·巴菲特曾称苹果是他所知道的最佳企业之一。</p>
<p>然而，尽管取得了如此成功、荣誉和看似良好的增长前景，股票在今年却表现不佳，截至上周末下跌了 19%。虽然公司在开发人工智能 (AI) 能力的竞争中落后，但这是否足以解释如此平淡的表现？或者考虑到其估值降低，苹果可能是现在最值得购买的科技股之一？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc3NTAvYS1wZXJzb24tdXNpbmctdGhlaXItcGhvbmUtb3V0c2lkZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="436" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc3NTAvYS1wZXJzb24tdXNpbmctdGhlaXItcGhvbmUtb3V0c2lkZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果的业务方向是否正确？</h2>
<p>近年来，苹果面临的一个挑战是其增长率的下降。由于人工智能推出的问题，导致公司推迟了一些功能，用户购买新 iPhone 的升级周期并不强劲。尤其是如果人们期待即将推出的新 AI 功能，似乎没有强烈的理由去购买新产品；可以说，等待似乎是更合理的选择。</p>
<p>公司最近公布了财报，销售额出现了异常增长，营收增长接近 10%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f1f3c30f85a45ad7d4ac7525c1efa34f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f1f3c30f85a45ad7d4ac7525c1efa34f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>截至 6 月 28 日的期间，iPhone 销售增长了 13%。但这很大程度上可能与关税有关。对未来价格上涨的担忧可能导致许多人决定提前升级设备。因此，推动需求上升的并不一定是创新的新产品，而是对未来宏观经济挑战的担忧。因此，尽管公司取得了多年来最强劲的增长，投资者仍未购买苹果的股票。</p>
<p>好消息是，公司的收入在明年可能会更强。苹果正在推出一款新的可折叠手机（没有折痕），这可能会给客户带来令人兴奋的新产品。</p>
<h2>今天苹果股票有多便宜？</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，苹果的业务非常强劲。这仍然是一家年收入超过 4000 亿美元的公司，利润率约为 24%。然而，最大的问题是股票是否_太贵_，尤其是如果其未来的增长率可能不会太高。苹果的股票今年大幅下跌，这使得股票的市盈率降至其五年平均水平左右。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce323ad4f223bb63a080e41ee9882992.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce323ad4f223bb63a080e41ee9882992.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>苹果的股价仍远未达到 52 周低点 169.21 美元，该价格是在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布互惠关税时达到的。但分析师对该股票的共识目标价设定在约 237 美元，表明分析师预计苹果的价值将上涨约 17%。</p>
<h2>你应该今天购买苹果股票吗？</h2>
<p>苹果的股票在 2025 年面临挑战。凭借庞大的用户基础和多年来不断扩展的服务，未来公司仍有很大的发展空间。但以 30 倍的市盈率来看，我能理解投资者对购买该股票的顾虑，因为对于一家双位数销售增长可能并不常见的公司来说，这个倍数确实很高。</p>
<p>虽然从长远来看，投资苹果仍然是一个不错的选择，但我认为苹果的估值并不便宜，缺乏足够的安全边际使其值得购买，考虑到关税和经济的不确定性。尽管今年股价下跌，但这支股票绝不是一个便宜的选择。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票今年下跌了 19%，引发了对其估值的质疑。尽管用户基础强大且最近收入增长了 10%，但对人工智能发展和宏观经济状况的担忧影响了投资者信心。分析师预测股票价值将上涨 17%，但由于市盈率为 30，许多投资者仍然保持谨慎。虽然苹果继续扩展其服务，但当前的估值可能没有为新买家提供足够的安全边际，这表明尽管股票下跌，但并不是一个便宜的选择</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.27%) is one of the most valuable companies in the world, with a market cap of $3 trillion. With around 1.5 billion active iPhone users worldwide, it has a massive userbase, which is connected to its vast and growing ecosystem. Warren Buffett once referred to Apple as one of the best businesses he's ever known.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.27%) 是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值达到 3 万亿美元。全球约有 15 亿活跃的 iPhone 用户，这使其拥有庞大的用户基础，并与其广泛且不断增长的生态系统相连接。沃伦·巴菲特曾称苹果是他所知道的最佳企业之一。</p>
</div><p>Yet, despite all its success, accolades, and seemingly terrific growth prospects, the stock has been struggling this year, down by 19% as of the end of last week. While the company has been falling behind in the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, is that enough of a reason to justify such an underwhelming performance? Or could Apple be one of the best tech stocks to buy right now, given its reduced valuation?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管取得了如此成功、荣誉和看似良好的增长前景，股票在今年却表现不佳，截至上周末下跌了 19%。虽然公司在开发人工智能 (AI) 能力的竞争中落后，但这是否足以解释如此平淡的表现？或者考虑到其估值降低，苹果可能是现在最值得购买的科技股之一？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc3NTAvYS1wZXJzb24tdXNpbmctdGhlaXItcGhvbmUtb3V0c2lkZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827750%2Fa-person-using-their-phone-outside.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple's business heading in the right direction?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的业务方向是否正确？</h2>
</div><p>A challenge for Apple in recent years has been its diminishing growth rate. With a troubling AI rollout that has resulted in the company delaying features, there hasn't been a strong upgrade cycle with users buying new iPhones. There hasn't been an overwhelming reason to do so, especially if people are anticipating new AI features on the horizon; there's been arguably more of a reason to wait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，苹果面临的一个挑战是其增长率的下降。由于人工智能推出的问题，导致公司推迟了一些功能，用户购买新 iPhone 的升级周期并不强劲。尤其是如果人们期待即将推出的新 AI 功能，似乎没有强烈的理由去购买新产品；可以说，等待似乎是更合理的选择。</p>
</div><p>The company recently reported earnings, and it did experience an unusual uptick in sales, with its top line rising by close to 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司最近公布了财报，销售额出现了异常增长，营收增长接近 10%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f1f3c30f85a45ad7d4ac7525c1efa34f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f1f3c30f85a45ad7d4ac7525c1efa34f.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For the period ending June 28, iPhone sales rose by 13%. But a big reason for that is likely to do with tariffs. The fear of rising prices in the future may have resulted in many people deciding to upgrade their devices sooner rather than later. Thus, it wasn't necessarily innovative new products that pushed demand up, but rather, a fear of challenging macroeconomic conditions ahead. As a result, investors haven't been buying up Apple's stock despite the seemingly strong growth -- the best the company has achieved in multiple years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月 28 日的期间，iPhone 销售增长了 13%。但这很大程度上可能与关税有关。对未来价格上涨的担忧可能导致许多人决定提前升级设备。因此，推动需求上升的并不一定是创新的新产品，而是对未来宏观经济挑战的担忧。因此，尽管公司取得了多年来最强劲的增长，投资者仍未购买苹果的股票。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that the company's revenue may be stronger next year. Apple is launching a new foldable phone (without creases), which may give customers an exciting new product to buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，公司的收入在明年可能会更强。苹果正在推出一款新的可折叠手机（没有折痕），这可能会给客户带来令人兴奋的新产品。</p>
</div><h2>Just how cheap is Apple stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今天苹果股票有多便宜？</h2>
</div><p>There's little doubt about how strong Apple's business is. This is still a company that generates more than $400 billion in annual revenue, with excellent profit margins of around 24%. The big question, however, is whether the stock is <em>too expensive</em>, especially if its growth rate may not be all that high going forward. Shares of Apple are down big this year, and that has pushed the stock's price-to-earnings multiple down to around its five-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，苹果的业务非常强劲。这仍然是一家年收入超过 4000 亿美元的公司，利润率约为 24%。然而，最大的问题是股票是否_太贵_，尤其是如果其未来的增长率可能不会太高。苹果的股票今年大幅下跌，这使得股票的市盈率降至其五年平均水平左右。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce323ad4f223bb63a080e41ee9882992.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ce323ad4f223bb63a080e41ee9882992.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Apple is still nowhere near its 52-week low of $169.21, which it reached in April when U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. But the consensus analyst price target for the stock is set to around $237, indicating that analysts do see Apple rising by around 17% in value from where it is right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股价仍远未达到 52 周低点 169.21 美元，该价格是在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布互惠关税时达到的。但分析师对该股票的共识目标价设定在约 237 美元，表明分析师预计苹果的价值将上涨约 17%。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Apple stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你应该今天购买苹果股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Apple's stock has been having a challenging year in 2025. With a vast user base and the business expanding its array of services over the years, there's still room for the company to become much larger in the future. But at 30 times its earnings, I can understand the apprehension from investors in buying the stock, as that's a steep multiple for a company where double-digit sales growth may simply not be the norm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股票在 2025 年面临挑战。凭借庞大的用户基础和多年来不断扩展的服务，未来公司仍有很大的发展空间。但以 30 倍的市盈率来看，我能理解投资者对购买该股票的顾虑，因为对于一家双位数销售增长可能并不常见的公司来说，这个倍数确实很高。</p>
</div><p>While it's still a good business to invest in for the long term, I don't think Apple's valuation is cheap enough where there's enough margin of safety to make it worth buying, given the uncertainty around tariffs and the economy. Although it's down this year, the stock is by no means a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然从长远来看，投资苹果仍然是一个不错的选择，但我认为苹果的估值并不便宜，缺乏足够的安全边际使其值得购买，考虑到关税和经济的不确定性。尽管今年股价下跌，但这支股票绝不是一个便宜的选择。</p>
</div>

Down 19% This Year, Has Apple Stock Become a Bargain Buy?

- 苹果公司市值达 3 万亿美元，拥有 15 亿活跃 iPhone 用户。  
- 尽管销售增长 10%，但因宏观经济担忧，投资者仍未积极买入。  
- 分析师目标价为 237 美元，预计股价有 17% 上涨空间。  

今年下跌了 19%，苹果股票是否已经成为一个值得购买的便宜选择？