<p>大约三十年前，互联网的出现和普及改变了美国企业的增长轨迹。自这一变革性事件以来，投资者一直在等待下一个真正的技术飞跃的出现。人工智能（AI）的崛起似乎就是答案。</p>
<p>具备人工智能解决方案的软件和系统能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出瞬间决策，这对全球大多数行业来说都是一个潜在的游戏规则改变者。这就是为什么普华永道在《Sizing the Prize》中将全球可寻址的人工智能市场估计为到 2030 年高达 15.7 万亿美元的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但与所有下一个重大创新一样，这种乐观并非普遍存在。尽管绝大多数华尔街分析师对人工智能革命的代表性公司——<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.04%) 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 7.64%) 持有买入评级和高昂的目标价，但仍然存在例外。</p>
<p>根据两位华尔街分析师的报告和发布的目标价，这些人工智能发展的基础性公司在未来一年内可能分别暴跌 42% 和 74%。</p>
<h2>Nvidia：隐含下行空间 42%</h2>
<p>可以说，没有哪只人工智能股票比 Nvidia 更受华尔街的喜爱。其图形处理单元（GPU）占据了大部分人工智能数据中心市场份额，并作为瞬时决策、生成式人工智能解决方案和大型语言模型训练的核心。66 位对 Nvidia 发布买入、持有或卖出评级的分析师中，有 59 位给予其股票买入评级。</p>
<p>阻碍 Nvidia 股票被普遍喜爱的原因是 Seaport Global 的分析师 Jay Goldberg。Goldberg 是唯一对 Nvidia 持有卖出评级的华尔街分析师，目标价为 100 美元。如果 Goldberg 的悲观预测成真，这家最大的上市公司将下跌 42%。</p>
<p>Goldberg 对 Nvidia 的主要批评之一是我在过去一年中一直强调的问题：内部竞争。尽管外部竞争对手正在加大人工智能 GPU 的生产，但 Nvidia 最大的威胁可能来自其自身的主要客户。</p>
<p>“七大奇迹” 中的大多数成员恰好是 Nvidia 的顶级客户，他们正在开发用于数据中心的人工智能芯片。尽管这些芯片在计算能力上无法与 Nvidia 的 GPU 相提并论，但它们的成本显著更低且没有积压。换句话说，它们将减少人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，这种稀缺性帮助 Nvidia 提高了定价能力和毛利率。</p>
<p>Goldberg 对人工智能支出周期的可持续性也持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋在维持公司竞争优势方面毫不吝啬。他的目标是每年推出一款新的先进人工智能芯片，Blackwell Ultra 是下一个将面向客户的产品。虽然更新更快的芯片在理论上应该帮助 Nvidia 维持其高价，但也可能迅速贬值之前一代的人工智能芯片，例如 Hopper（H100）。如果之前一代的人工智能 GPU 迅速贬值，可能会延迟升级周期和/或激怒关键客户。</p>
<p>另一个考虑因素是，自互联网普及以来的每一项下一个重大技术都经历过早期的泡沫破裂事件。尽管无法预测何时音乐会停止，因为泡沫通常是由情绪驱动的，但历史先例并不骗人。投资者一贯高估了颠覆性技术的采用和实用性。</p>
<p>如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，没有哪只人工智能股票会比 Nvidia 受到更直接的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Palantir Technologies：隐含下行空间 74%</h2>
<p>但从比较的角度来看，人工智能数据挖掘专家 Palantir Technologies 在未来一年的预期下行空间甚至更为明显。</p>
<p>根据 RBC Capital Markets 的长期 Palantir 看空者 Rishi Jaluria 的说法，Palantir 股票的目标价为 40 美元，这将比该公司在 8 月 1 日收盘时的股价下跌 74%。值得注意的是，Jaluria 此前对 Palantir 的目标价为 11 美元，预计到 2025 年。</p>
<p>自 2023 年初以来，Palantir 股票因其转向持续盈利以及不可替代性而上涨超过 2300%。尽管 Palantir 以企业为中心的 Foundry 平台面临一些小规模竞争，但无论是 Foundry 还是其政府驱动的 Gotham 平台（协助军事任务规划和执行）都没有大型竞争对手。这导致其经营现金流和销售额年增长率持续保持在 25% 以上。</p>
<p>Jaluria 对 Palantir 的不满归结为两个因素。</p>
<p>首先，RBC Capital 的软件分析师对 Foundry 的销售势头持怀疑态度。在 Palantir 第一季度运营结果公布之前发布的一份报告中，Jaluria 表达了他对 Foundry 快速上升的利润率是一次性交易的结果的担忧。考虑到满足客户需求所需的个性化程度，目前尚不清楚这是否是一个快速可扩展的领域。</p>
<p>但毫无疑问，在 Rishi Jaluria 看来，Palantir 最大的问题在于其估值。截至 8 月 1 日收盘，Palantir 的市销率（P/S）达到了 123。为了让人们了解这一数字远远超出历史常规，行业领先的公司在互联网泡沫时期的市销率大约在 30 到 40 之间。没有任何一家大型公司能够维持超过 30 的市销率，更不用说是其四倍了。</p>
<p>另一个需要考虑的因素是 Gotham 潜在客户的狭窄范围。一个依赖人工智能和机器学习的平台，用于数据收集和军事任务规划，并不是中国、俄罗斯或其他几十个国家能够获得的。实际上，只有美国及其直接盟友才是这些解决方案的潜在买家。这对 Gotham 的增长潜力形成了真正的上限，这对于一只以高估值交易的股票来说并不理想。</p>

英伟达

PLTR

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>华尔街分析师对人工智能股票英伟达和 Palantir 的看法不一。分析师 Jay Goldberg 表示，作为人工智能 GPU 的领导者，英伟达面临着潜在的 42% 的下跌，原因是内部竞争和对人工智能支出可持续性的担忧。与此同时，Palantir Technologies 可能会出现高达 74% 的跌幅，分析师 Rishi Jaluria 预计其股价将跌至 40 美元，理由是尽管最近盈利有所增长，但对其销售势头持怀疑态度。这两家公司在人工智能革命中至关重要，但分析师警告未来存在重大风险</p>

<p>Roughly three decades ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet changed the growth arc for corporate America. Since this transformational event, investors have been waiting for the next true technological leap forward to emerge. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) looks to be the answer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约三十年前，互联网的出现和普及改变了美国企业的增长轨迹。自这一变革性事件以来，投资者一直在等待下一个真正的技术飞跃的出现。人工智能（AI）的崛起似乎就是答案。</p>
</div><p>The capacity for software and systems empowered with AI solutions to make split-second decisions without human intervention is a potential game-changer for most industries around the globe. It's the reason PwC pegged the global addressable market for AI at a staggering $15.7 trillion by 2030 in <em>Sizing the Prize</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>具备人工智能解决方案的软件和系统能够在没有人类干预的情况下做出瞬间决策，这对全球大多数行业来说都是一个潜在的游戏规则改变者。这就是为什么普华永道在《Sizing the Prize》中将全球可寻址的人工智能市场估计为到 2030 年高达 15.7 万亿美元的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827829%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But as is the case with all next-big-thing innovations, this optimism isn't universal. Although an overwhelming percentage of Wall Street analysts have buy ratings and lofty price targets attached to the faces of the AI revolution -- <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.04%) and <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 7.64%) -- there <em>are</em> exceptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与所有下一个重大创新一样，这种乐观并非普遍存在。尽管绝大多数华尔街分析师对人工智能革命的代表性公司——<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.04%) 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 7.64%) 持有买入评级和高昂的目标价，但仍然存在例外。</p>
</div><p>Based on reports and issued price targets from two select Wall Street analysts, these foundational pieces to the evolution of artificial intelligence can plummet 42% and 74%, respectively, over the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据两位华尔街分析师的报告和发布的目标价，这些人工智能发展的基础性公司在未来一年内可能分别暴跌 42% 和 74%。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia: Implied downside of 42%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia：隐含下行空间 42%</h2>
</div><p>Arguably no AI stock is more loved by Wall Street than Nvidia. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) hold the bulk of AI-data center market share and act as the brains powering split-second decision-making, generative AI solutions, and the training of large language models. Out of the 66 analysts who've issued a buy-, hold-, or sell-equivalent rating on Nvidia, 59 rate its stock a buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，没有哪只人工智能股票比 Nvidia 更受华尔街的喜爱。其图形处理单元（GPU）占据了大部分人工智能数据中心市场份额，并作为瞬时决策、生成式人工智能解决方案和大型语言模型训练的核心。66 位对 Nvidia 发布买入、持有或卖出评级的分析师中，有 59 位给予其股票买入评级。</p>
</div><p>What keeps Nvidia stock from being universally loved is analyst Jay Goldberg of Seaport Global. Goldberg is the lone Wall Street analyst to have a sell rating on Nvidia, with a price target of $100. If Goldberg's pessimistic prognostication was to come to fruition, the largest publicly traded company would tumble 42%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阻碍 Nvidia 股票被普遍喜爱的原因是 Seaport Global 的分析师 Jay Goldberg。Goldberg 是唯一对 Nvidia 持有卖出评级的华尔街分析师，目标价为 100 美元。如果 Goldberg 的悲观预测成真，这家最大的上市公司将下跌 42%。</p>
</div><p>One of Goldberg's top criticism's of Nvidia is something I've been beating the drum on for the last year: internal competition. Though external competitors are ramping up their production of AI-GPUs, Nvidia's top threat may very well come from its own top customers by net sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 对 Nvidia 的主要批评之一是我在过去一年中一直强调的问题：内部竞争。尽管外部竞争对手正在加大人工智能 GPU 的生产，但 Nvidia 最大的威胁可能来自其自身的主要客户。</p>
</div><p>Most members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; which happen to be some of Nvidia's top clients, are developing AI chips to use in their data centers. Even though these chips can't stand up to Nvidia's GPUs on a compute basis, they're considerably cheaper and not backlogged. In other words, they're going to minimize the AI-GPU scarcity that's helped drive Nvidia's pricing power and gross margin higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇迹” 中的大多数成员恰好是 Nvidia 的顶级客户，他们正在开发用于数据中心的人工智能芯片。尽管这些芯片在计算能力上无法与 Nvidia 的 GPU 相提并论，但它们的成本显著更低且没有积压。换句话说，它们将减少人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性，这种稀缺性帮助 Nvidia 提高了定价能力和毛利率。</p>
</div><p>Goldberg is also skeptical of the sustainability of the AI spending cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 对人工智能支出周期的可持续性也持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang isn't sparing any expense when it comes to sustaining his company's competitive edge. He aims to bring a new advanced AI chip to market annually, with Blackwell Ultra being the next in line to reach clients. While newer and faster chips should, on paper, help Nvidia support its premium pricing, it could also quickly depreciate prior-generation AI chips, such as the Hopper (H100). If previous generation AI-GPUs rapidly depreciate, it may delay upgrade cycles and/or irritate key customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋在维持公司竞争优势方面毫不吝啬。他的目标是每年推出一款新的先进人工智能芯片，Blackwell Ultra 是下一个将面向客户的产品。虽然更新更快的芯片在理论上应该帮助 Nvidia 维持其高价，但也可能迅速贬值之前一代的人工智能芯片，例如 Hopper（H100）。如果之前一代的人工智能 GPU 迅速贬值，可能会延迟升级周期和/或激怒关键客户。</p>
</div><p>The other consideration here is that every next-big-thing technology since (and including) the proliferation of the internet has endured a bubble-bursting event early in its existence. Though it's impossible to predict when the music will stop since bubbles are typically driven by emotions, historical precedent doesn't lie. Investors consistently overestimate the adoption and utility of game-changing technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个考虑因素是，自互联网普及以来的每一项下一个重大技术都经历过早期的泡沫破裂事件。尽管无法预测何时音乐会停止，因为泡沫通常是由情绪驱动的，但历史先例并不骗人。投资者一贯高估了颠覆性技术的采用和实用性。</p>
</div><p>If an artificial intelligence bubble was to form and burst, there's not an AI stock that would be more directly impacted than Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，没有哪只人工智能股票会比 Nvidia 受到更直接的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc4MjkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827829%2Fmilitary-army-soldiers-saas-artificial-intelligence-computer-mission-plan-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir Technologies: Implied downside of 74%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir Technologies：隐含下行空间 74%</h2>
</div><p>But on a comparative basis, the projected downside for AI-data mining specialist Palantir Technologies over the next year is even more pronounced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但从比较的角度来看，人工智能数据挖掘专家 Palantir Technologies 在未来一年的预期下行空间甚至更为明显。</p>
</div><p>According to longtime Palantir bear Rishi Jaluria of RBC Capital Markets, Palantir stock is headed to $40, which would represent a 74% pullback from where shares of the company closed on August 1. It's worth noting that Jaluria previously had an $11 target on Palantir entering 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 RBC Capital Markets 的长期 Palantir 看空者 Rishi Jaluria 的说法，Palantir 股票的目标价为 40 美元，这将比该公司在 8 月 1 日收盘时的股价下跌 74%。值得注意的是，Jaluria 此前对 Palantir 的目标价为 11 美元，预计到 2025 年。</p>
</div><p>Palantir stock has rallied more than 2,300% since the start of 2023 due to its shift to recurring profitability, as well as its irreplaceability. Though Palantir's enterprise-focused Foundry platform has some small-scale competition, neither Foundry nor its government-driven Gotham platform, which assists with military mission planning and execution, have large-scale challengers. This has led to consistent operating cash flow and sales growth of 25% or greater on an annual basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以来，Palantir 股票因其转向持续盈利以及不可替代性而上涨超过 2300%。尽管 Palantir 以企业为中心的 Foundry 平台面临一些小规模竞争，但无论是 Foundry 还是其政府驱动的 Gotham 平台（协助军事任务规划和执行）都没有大型竞争对手。这导致其经营现金流和销售额年增长率持续保持在 25% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Jaluria's displeasure with Palantir boils down to two factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jaluria 对 Palantir 的不满归结为两个因素。</p>
</div><p>First, RBC Capital's software analyst is skeptical of Foundry's sales momentum. In a note released prior to Palantir's first-quarter operating results being revealed, Jaluria expressed his concerns that Foundry's rapidly rising margins were the result of one-off deals. Given the level of personalization needed of Foundry to satisfy its clients needs, it's not yet clear if this is a rapidly scalable segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，RBC Capital 的软件分析师对 Foundry 的销售势头持怀疑态度。在 Palantir 第一季度运营结果公布之前发布的一份报告中，Jaluria 表达了他对 Foundry 快速上升的利润率是一次性交易的结果的担忧。考虑到满足客户需求所需的个性化程度，目前尚不清楚这是否是一个快速可扩展的领域。</p>
</div><p>But make no mistake about it, the biggest problem with Palantir, in the eyes of Rishi Jaluria, is its valuation. As of the closing bell on Aug. 1, Palantir was tipping the scales at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 123. To offer some idea of how far outside of historical norms this is, industry-leading companies on the cutting-edge of the dot-com bubble topped out at P/S ratios of roughly 30 to 40. No megacap company has ever been able to sustain a P/S ratio above 30, let alone four times that amount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但毫无疑问，在 Rishi Jaluria 看来，Palantir 最大的问题在于其估值。截至 8 月 1 日收盘，Palantir 的市销率（P/S）达到了 123。为了让人们了解这一数字远远超出历史常规，行业领先的公司在互联网泡沫时期的市销率大约在 30 到 40 之间。没有任何一家大型公司能够维持超过 30 的市销率，更不用说是其四倍了。</p>
</div><p>Something else that should be taken into consideration is Gotham's narrow pool of potential clients. An AI- and machine learning-driven platform that assists with data collection and military mission planning isn't something that China, Russia, or dozens of other countries will be granted access to. In fact, only America and its immediate allies are potential buyers of these solutions. This places a genuine ceiling on Gotham's growth potential, which isn't ideal for a stock trading at a nosebleed valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个需要考虑的因素是 Gotham 潜在客户的狭窄范围。一个依赖人工智能和机器学习的平台，用于数据收集和军事任务规划，并不是中国、俄罗斯或其他几十个国家能够获得的。实际上，只有美国及其直接盟友才是这些解决方案的潜在买家。这对 Gotham 的增长潜力形成了真正的上限，这对于一只以高估值交易的股票来说并不理想。</p>
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The Faces of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution -- Nvidia and Palantir -- Can Plunge 42% and 74%, According to Select Wall Street Analysts

- 人工智能被视为下一个技术飞跃，市场潜力达 15.7 万亿美元。  
- Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股价预计分别下跌 42% 和 74%。  
- 分析师对两家公司未来的盈利能力和估值表示担忧。

根据部分华尔街分析师的预测，人工智能革命的代表——英伟达和 Palantir——可能分别下跌 42% 和 74%