<p>七月份的联邦储备会议可能成为三十多年来最分裂的一次，因为两位关键的董事会成员，<strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>，投票支持降息，而主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 和大多数人则维持利率不变。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF 突破了阻力位。查看图表。</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>但令人失望的七月就业报告显示，之前几个月的就业人数大幅削减了 258,000 个，这引发了中央银行家和华尔街分析师的新紧迫感，推动降息的呼声——甚至来自一些美联储最鹰派的声音。</p>
<h3>Kashkari 转向鸽派：“经济正在放缓”</h3>
<p>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长 <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>，长期以来以支持紧缩政策而闻名，在周三的 CNBC《Squawk Box》节目中表示，经济前景正在迅速恶化。</p>
<p>“真实的基础经济正在放缓，” Kashkari 说。“在短期内，可能需要开始调整联邦基金利率。”</p>
<p>他表示，如果当前趋势持续，降息可能是必要的，并对特朗普时代关税的通胀影响表示怀疑，指出其影响可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>
<p>“我对关税对通胀的最终影响尚无信心，” Kashkari 说。“关税现在是一个未知数。”</p>
<h3>高盛认为经济接近 ‘停滞速度’</h3>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 的经济学家们呼应了 Kashkari 的担忧，强调就业市场的疲软是由更广泛的经济放缓加剧的贸易摩擦所驱动。</p>
<p>在周三分享的一份报告中，首席经济学家 <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> 警告称，裁员和修正正在自我强化。</p>
<p>“周五的就业数据强化了我们对美国经济增长接近停滞速度的看法，” Hatzius 说。</p>
<p>高盛指出，美国实际 GDP 在 2025 年上半年仅增长了 1.2% 的年化率，几乎比他们的潜在产出估计低了整整一个百分点。该公司预计下半年也将出现类似疲软的增长。</p>
<p>Hatzius 将当前的疲软部分归因于更高的关税，这导致产出放缓、消费者支出减少和招聘疲软。</p>
<p>“实际可支配收入和消费者支出可能会非常缓慢地增长，不仅是因为就业增长疲软，还因为关税对消费者价格的传导效应仍在后面，” 他说。</p>
<h3>高盛预计一年内降息五次</h3>
<p>高盛的基本预期仍然是九月、十月和十二月各降息 25 个基点，随后在 2026 年上半年再降两次。</p>
<p>然而，如果下一个就业报告显示失业率再次上升或初请失业金人数激增，九月可能会考虑降息 50 个基点。</p>
<p>市场目前预计九月降息 25 个基点的概率为 93%，十月再次降息的概率为 61%。</p>
<p>立即阅读：<strong>通胀警报已开启——特朗普的关税是罪魁祸首</strong></p>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

高盛

<p>七月份的联邦储备会议上，关于降息的投票出现分歧，博曼和沃勒表示反对。由于裁员 25.8 万个的糟糕就业报告，市场呼吁提前降息。明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的卡什卡里指出经济正在放缓，而高盛则警告增长接近停滞速度，预测到年底将有三次降息，并在 2026 年再降两次。市场预计九月份降息 25 个基点的概率为 93%</p>

<p>The July Federal Reserve meeting may go down as the most divided in over three decades, as two key board members, <strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> and <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>, broke ranks by voting for a rate cut, while Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> and the majority held rates steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七月份的联邦储备会议可能成为三十多年来最分裂的一次，因为两位关键的董事会成员，<strong>Michelle Bowman</strong> 和 <strong>Christopher Waller</strong>，投票支持降息，而主席 <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> 和大多数人则维持利率不变。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF is breaking past resistance. Check the chart here.</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>TLT ETF 突破了阻力位。查看图表。</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p>But a dismal July jobs report, which saw a massive 258,000 jobs slashed from prior months' figures, has sparked new urgency among central bankers and Wall Street analysts to pull forward rate cuts—even from some of the Fed's most hawkish voices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但令人失望的七月就业报告显示，之前几个月的就业人数大幅削减了 258,000 个，这引发了中央银行家和华尔街分析师的新紧迫感，推动降息的呼声——甚至来自一些美联储最鹰派的声音。</p>
</div><h3>Kashkari Turns Dovish: “The Economy Is Slowing”</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>Kashkari 转向鸽派：“经济正在放缓”</h3>
</div><p>Minneapolis Fed president <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>, long known for supporting tighter policy, told CNBC's Squawk Box on Wednesday that the economic outlook is softening fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长 <strong>Neel Kashkari</strong>，长期以来以支持紧缩政策而闻名，在周三的 CNBC《Squawk Box》节目中表示，经济前景正在迅速恶化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The real underlying economy is slowing,&#34; Kashkari said. &#34;In the near term, it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“真实的基础经济正在放缓，” Kashkari 说。“在短期内，可能需要开始调整联邦基金利率。”</p>
</div><p>He signaled that rate cuts could be necessary if current trends continue and cast doubt on the inflationary impact of Trump-era tariffs, noting that their effects may take several quarters to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，如果当前趋势持续，降息可能是必要的，并对特朗普时代关税的通胀影响表示怀疑，指出其影响可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't have confidence yet in what the ultimate effects of tariffs are going to be on inflation,&#34; Kashkari said. &#34;Tariffs are just such an unknown right now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我对关税对通胀的最终影响尚无信心，” Kashkari 说。“关税现在是一个未知数。”</p>
</div><h3>Goldman Sachs Sees Economy Near ‘Stall Speed'</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>高盛认为经济接近 ‘停滞速度’</h3>
</div><p>Economists at <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> echoed Kashkari's concerns, highlighting that job market weakness is being driven by a broader economic slowdown exacerbated by trade frictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 的经济学家们呼应了 Kashkari 的担忧，强调就业市场的疲软是由更广泛的经济放缓加剧的贸易摩擦所驱动。</p>
</div><p>In a note shared Wednesday, chief economist <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> warned that job cuts and revisions are becoming self-reinforcing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周三分享的一份报告中，首席经济学家 <strong>Jan Hatzius</strong> 警告称，裁员和修正正在自我强化。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Friday's jobs numbers reinforced our view that US growth is near stall speed,&#34; Hatzius said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“周五的就业数据强化了我们对美国经济增长接近停滞速度的看法，” Hatzius 说。</p>
</div><p>Goldman notes that U.S. real GDP grew just 1.2% annualized in the first half of 2025, nearly a full point below their estimate of potential output. The firm expects similarly weak growth in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，美国实际 GDP 在 2025 年上半年仅增长了 1.2% 的年化率，几乎比他们的潜在产出估计低了整整一个百分点。该公司预计下半年也将出现类似疲软的增长。</p>
</div><p>Hatzius attributes the current softness in part to higher tariffs, which are feeding through to slower output, reduced consumer spending, and weaker hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hatzius 将当前的疲软部分归因于更高的关税，这导致产出放缓、消费者支出减少和招聘疲软。</p>
</div><p>“Real disposable income and consumer spending are likely to grow very slowly, not just because of the weakness in job growth but also because most of the pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices is still ahead of us,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“实际可支配收入和消费者支出可能会非常缓慢地增长，不仅是因为就业增长疲软，还因为关税对消费者价格的传导效应仍在后面，” 他说。</p>
</div><h3>Goldman Eyes Five Rate Cuts In A Year</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>高盛预计一年内降息五次</h3>
</div><p>Goldman's base case remains for three 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December, followed by two more cuts in the first half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的基本预期仍然是九月、十月和十二月各降息 25 个基点，随后在 2026 年上半年再降两次。</p>
</div><p>However, if the next jobs report shows another uptick in unemployment or a spike in initial claims, a 50-basis-point cut in September could be on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果下一个就业报告显示失业率再次上升或初请失业金人数激增，九月可能会考虑降息 50 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Markets currently price in a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with odds of a second cut in October at 61%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场目前预计九月降息 25 个基点的概率为 93%，十月再次降息的概率为 61%。</p>
</div><p>Read now: <strong>The Inflation Alarm Is On—And Trump’s Tariffs Are To Blame</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>立即阅读：<strong>通胀警报已开启——特朗普的关税是罪魁祸首</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Another Fed Official Backs A Rate Cut—Goldman Sees Trouble Ahead If The Fed Waits

- 美联储七月会议出现分歧，部分成员支持降息。  
- 经济放缓和就业数据疲软引发降息紧迫感。  
- 高盛预计未来一年将有五次降息。

又一位美联储官员支持降息——高盛警告称，如果美联储继续观望，可能会面临麻烦