<p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.97%）的季度业绩大幅超出预期，短暂推动其市值突破 4 万亿美元大关，使这家科技巨头成为与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.60%）唯一实现这一成就的公司。现在，随着两家竞争对手突破 4 万亿美元的门槛，问题转向哪家公司将首先达到 5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>从 4 万亿美元攀升至 5 万亿美元要比从 3 万亿美元到 4 万亿美元容易得多，因为这只需要 25% 的增长，而不是 33% 的增长。因此，这些公司将更快地突破这些市值障碍，但我们何时可以期待这两家公司达到这一标志呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODQvc29mdHdhcmUtZW5naW5lZXItd3JpdGluZy1jb2RlLWZvci1hLXByb2dyYW0tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODQvc29mdHdhcmUtZW5naW5lZXItd3JpdGluZy1jb2RlLWZvci1hLXByb2dyYW0tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>微软和英伟达的成功得益于一些共同的顺风因素</h2>
<p>微软已成为最突出的科技巨头之一，提供从商业软件到云计算再到游戏设备的多种产品。然而，焦点显然集中在其智能云部门，尤其是其云计算服务 Azure。</p>
<p>随着微软成为构建云工作负载的顶级平台，Azure 正在经历巨大的增长。云计算可以运行传统的商业工作负载，如数据处理、信息存储或网站托管，但它对于运行 AI 工作负载也非常有用。云计算所获得的双重顺风因素令人印象深刻，并且可能在未来许多年内持续存在。</p>
<p>当像微软这样的公司建立新的云服务器以满足需求时，它们通常会配备来自英伟达的计算硬件。英伟达的图形处理单元（GPU）在同类产品中表现最佳，并且在运行各种工作负载时极具灵活性。这种灵活性使它们非常适合数据中心，因为相同的计算单元可以在需要时运行各种工作负载。</p>
<p>英伟达有多种用途的 GPU，但其最大的用途无疑是数据中心。由于同样的顺风因素正在增加对云计算和 AI 的需求，英伟达预计数据中心的资本支出将从 2024 年的 4000 亿美元上升到 2028 年的 1 万亿美元。这对英伟达的增长故事是个好兆头，并表明它可以继续以快速的速度增长。</p>
<p>英伟达和微软都有良好的增长故事，但数字显示了什么？</p>
<h2>微软似乎产生的利润超过英伟达</h2>
<p>如果你看看每家公司产生的收入，就会清楚微软在英伟达之前占据了优势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de3b7b89319cac0de10a1e1981c1cb57.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de3b7b89319cac0de10a1e1981c1cb57.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，一些因素正在拖累英伟达。首先，第一季度的净收入数字不佳，因为美国撤销了其对中国的出口许可证。英伟达已重新申请该许可证，并保证会获得批准。不过，英伟达的 H20 芯片的销售损失将对其第一季度和第二季度的净收入数据造成影响。其次，英伟达尚未公布第二季度的业绩（预计本月晚些时候公布），因此微软在这方面有些领先。</p>
<p>最后，也是最重要的一点，英伟达的增长速度远快于微软。在 2025 财年第四季度（截至 6 月 30 日），微软的净收入增长了 24%。考虑到微软的规模和成熟度，这一增长令人印象深刻，投资者对微软的业绩不应有任何疑虑。然而，英伟达在 2025 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）的净收入增长了 26%，尽管受到 H20 芯片减记的严重影响。</p>
<p>由于预计英伟达的盈利增长速度将快于微软，因此其相对于微软有一定的溢价。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/90238c8fd5b2231625284ff00c7cec3c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/90238c8fd5b2231625284ff00c7cec3c.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>正是由于这种溢价，尽管英伟达的净收入较少，但其市值仍高于微软。</p>
<p>由于英伟达的增长速度更快且估值溢价，我认为它可能会比微软更早达到 5 万亿美元的市值。虽然微软的增长令人印象深刻，但仍然慢于英伟达，尽管英伟达的业绩受到了一定的影响。我认为这两只股票在目前都是优秀的投资选择，但英伟达仍然占据优势。</p>

<p>微软和英伟达的市值均已超过 4 万亿美元，这引发了哪个公司将首先达到 5 万亿美元的讨论。微软受益于其智能云部门，而英伟达的增长则受到数据中心 GPU 需求的推动。尽管微软目前的利润更高，但英伟达更快的增长率表明它可能会首先达到 5 万亿美元的市值。这两家公司都是强劲的投资选择，但由于增长潜力，英伟达略占优势</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>'s (MSFT -0.97%) blowout quarter briefly propelled the stock across the $4 trillion threshold, allowing the tech giant to join <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.60%) as the only companies ever to achieve this feat. Now that two competitors have broken the $4 trillion threshold, the question shifts to which company will reach $5 trillion first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.97%）的季度业绩大幅超出预期，短暂推动其市值突破 4 万亿美元大关，使这家科技巨头成为与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.60%）唯一实现这一成就的公司。现在，随着两家竞争对手突破 4 万亿美元的门槛，问题转向哪家公司将首先达到 5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Climbing from $4 trillion to $5 trillion is much easier than going from $3 trillion to $4 trillion, as it only requires a 25% rise versus a 33% rise. As a result, these companies are going to continue breaking these market cap barriers more quickly, but when can we expect these two to hit that mark?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 4 万亿美元攀升至 5 万亿美元要比从 3 万亿美元到 4 万亿美元容易得多，因为这只需要 25% 的增长，而不是 33% 的增长。因此，这些公司将更快地突破这些市值障碍，但我们何时可以期待这两家公司达到这一标志呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2ODQvc29mdHdhcmUtZW5naW5lZXItd3JpdGluZy1jb2RlLWZvci1hLXByb2dyYW0tYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827684%2Fsoftware-engineer-writing-code-for-a-program-artificial-intelligence-ai.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft and Nvidia are succeeding thanks to a few shared tailwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软和英伟达的成功得益于一些共同的顺风因素</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has become one of the most prominent tech giants, and offers a wide variety of products ranging from business software to cloud computing to gaming devices. However, the show's focus is clearly on its Intelligent Cloud division, led by Azure, its cloud computing service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软已成为最突出的科技巨头之一，提供从商业软件到云计算再到游戏设备的多种产品。然而，焦点显然集中在其智能云部门，尤其是其云计算服务 Azure。</p>
</div><p>Azure is seeing massive growth as Microsoft has become the top platform for building cloud workloads. Cloud computing can run traditional business workloads like data processing, information storage, or website hosting, but it's also useful for running AI workloads. The dual tailwind that cloud computing is receiving is impressive and will likely be around for many more years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着微软成为构建云工作负载的顶级平台，Azure 正在经历巨大的增长。云计算可以运行传统的商业工作负载，如数据处理、信息存储或网站托管，但它对于运行 AI 工作负载也非常有用。云计算所获得的双重顺风因素令人印象深刻，并且可能在未来许多年内持续存在。</p>
</div><p>When a company like Microsoft builds new cloud servers to meet demand, they're often filled with computing hardware from Nvidia. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are best in class and are extremely flexible for running various workloads. This flexibility makes them ideal for data centers, as the same computing units can run various workloads when needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当像微软这样的公司建立新的云服务器以满足需求时，它们通常会配备来自英伟达的计算硬件。英伟达的图形处理单元（GPU）在同类产品中表现最佳，并且在运行各种工作负载时极具灵活性。这种灵活性使它们非常适合数据中心，因为相同的计算单元可以在需要时运行各种工作负载。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has GPUs for multiple use cases, but its biggest by far is data centers. Thanks to the same tailwinds that are increasing demand for cloud computing and AI, Nvidia expects data center capital expenditures to rise from $400 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2028. This bodes well for Nvidia's growth story and shows that it can continue rising at its rapid pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达有多种用途的 GPU，但其最大的用途无疑是数据中心。由于同样的顺风因素正在增加对云计算和 AI 的需求，英伟达预计数据中心的资本支出将从 2024 年的 4000 亿美元上升到 2028 年的 1 万亿美元。这对英伟达的增长故事是个好兆头，并表明它可以继续以快速的速度增长。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia and Microsoft have solid growth stories, but what do the numbers say?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和微软都有良好的增长故事，但数字显示了什么？</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft appears to produce more profits than Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软似乎产生的利润超过英伟达</h2>
</div><p>If you look at how much income each company is generating, it's clear that Microsoft has a head start over Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你看看每家公司产生的收入，就会清楚微软在英伟达之前占据了优势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de3b7b89319cac0de10a1e1981c1cb57.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de3b7b89319cac0de10a1e1981c1cb57.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>However, a few factors are holding Nvidia back. First, Q1 had poor net income numbers because the U.S. revoked its export license to China. Nvidia has reapplied for that license with assurances that it will be approved. Still, the lost sales of Nvidia's H20 chips will harm its net income figures in both Q1 and Q2. Second, Nvidia hasn't reported Q2 results yet (it's due to report them later this month), so Microsoft has a bit of a head start that way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一些因素正在拖累英伟达。首先，第一季度的净收入数字不佳，因为美国撤销了其对中国的出口许可证。英伟达已重新申请该许可证，并保证会获得批准。不过，英伟达的 H20 芯片的销售损失将对其第一季度和第二季度的净收入数据造成影响。其次，英伟达尚未公布第二季度的业绩（预计本月晚些时候公布），因此微软在这方面有些领先。</p>
</div><p>Last, and likely the most important, Nvidia is growing much faster than Microsoft. In Q4 of fiscal 2025 (ending June 30), Microsoft's net income rose 24%. Considering Microsoft's size and maturity, that's impressive growth, and investors shouldn't have any qualms with the results Microsoft delivered. However, Nvidia's net income increased by 26% in Q1 fiscal year 2025 (ending April 27), despite being severely hampered by a write-off of H20 chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，也是最重要的一点，英伟达的增长速度远快于微软。在 2025 财年第四季度（截至 6 月 30 日），微软的净收入增长了 24%。考虑到微软的规模和成熟度，这一增长令人印象深刻，投资者对微软的业绩不应有任何疑虑。然而，英伟达在 2025 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）的净收入增长了 26%，尽管受到 H20 芯片减记的严重影响。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia expected to grow earnings faster than Microsoft, it has a slight premium to Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于预计英伟达的盈利增长速度将快于微软，因此其相对于微软有一定的溢价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/90238c8fd5b2231625284ff00c7cec3c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/90238c8fd5b2231625284ff00c7cec3c.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>This premium is why Nvidia is worth more than Microsoft despite having a smaller net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正是由于这种溢价，尽管英伟达的净收入较少，但其市值仍高于微软。</p>
</div><p>Because of Nvidia's faster growth rate and premium valuation, I think it will likely beat Microsoft to the $5 trillion mark. While Microsoft's growth is impressive, it's still slower than Nvidia's, despite Nvidia's results being hampered. I think both stocks are excellent companies to own at these points, but Nvidia still has the edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于英伟达的增长速度更快且估值溢价，我认为它可能会比微软更早达到 5 万亿美元的市值。虽然微软的增长令人印象深刻，但仍然慢于英伟达，尽管英伟达的业绩受到了一定的影响。我认为这两只股票在目前都是优秀的投资选择，但英伟达仍然占据优势。</p>
</div>

Which Stock Will Win the Race to $5 Trillion: Microsoft or Nvidia?

- 微软和英伟达成为首个市值突破 4 万亿美元的公司。  
- 随着云计算和 AI 需求增长，英伟达数据中心支出预计将从 4000 亿美元增至 1 万亿美元。  
- 尽管微软利润较高，英伟达因更快的增长率可能更早达到 5 万亿美元市值。  

微软和英伟达，哪只股票将率先达到 5 万亿美元市值？