<p><strong>礼来</strong>(LLY -14.23%) 的股票今年大幅下跌。截至 2025 年 8 月 7 日，它的价值已经损失了 17%。考虑到近年来取得的巨大增长，这对于顶级医疗保健股票来说并不寻常。周四，尽管最近的财报看起来相当强劲，但该股票在公布财报后暴跌了 14%。</p>
<p>该股票表现不佳，如果短期内情况没有改善，礼来将面临自 2008 年以来最糟糕的表现。公司是否陷入了重大困境，或者这实际上是投资于这只医疗保健股票的好时机，因为它最近创下了 52 周的新低？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>盈利失望，尽管上调了指引</h2>
<p>周四，礼来公布了 2025 年第二季度的财务数据。截止到 6 月 30 日，该公司的销售额增长了 38%，达到了 156 亿美元，超出了分析师预测的 147 亿美元。净收入几乎翻了一番，增长了 91%，达到了 57 亿美元。其调整后的每股利润为 6.31 美元，超过了华尔街预期的 5.57 美元。</p>
<p>公司上调了全年销售和净收入的指引，但警告称这些估计并未考虑到对进口药品征收关税可能对其业务产生的影响。另一个对股票造成压力的因素是公司肥胖药物 orforglipron 的临床试验数据。在最高剂量下，患者的体重减少超过 12%，这并没有达到分析师的预期。考虑到使用公司 GLP-1 减肥药 Zepbound 的患者可以减轻超过 25% 的体重，投资者可能担心礼来的未来增长可能没有之前看起来那么乐观。</p>
<h2>礼来的股票自大萧条以来表现不佳</h2>
<p>在周四的抛售之前，该股票正处于自 2016 年以来最糟糕的一年。但在 orforglipron 试验的令人失望的消息之后，该股票现在看起来可能会比 2016 年近 13% 的下跌表现更差。它现在可能正朝着自 2008 年大萧条以来最糟糕的表现迈进，当时其股价下跌了近 25%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>标普 500 回报</th>
<th>礼来股票回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>表格由作者提供。数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>礼来的股票突显了投资于高估值股票的一个重大风险——预期也很高。它通常的市盈率超过 60 倍，有时甚至超过 100 倍的历史利润。由于预期礼来在未来几年将实现更大的增长，投资者为礼来支付了高额溢价，因为其前景看好的 GLP-1 药物。当消息传出 orforglipron 可能没有预期的那么好时，股票应声下跌。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买礼来股票吗？</h2>
<p>礼来是一家值得长期投资的顶级医疗保健公司，我认为只要你不急于快速获利，它可以成为一个绝佳的买入机会。不幸的是，市场有时会反复无常，对任何负面消息做出强烈反应。但事实是，礼来在 GLP-1 领域处于领先地位，其业务并不依赖于单一药物。它正在努力扩大规模并开发更多产品。orforglipron 的临床试验结果不佳可能令人失望，但这不应阻止你投资于这家整体上仍然优秀的企业。</p>
<p>礼来的股票自 2024 年初以来未曾如此低迷，现在可能是长期投资于该业务的好时机。</p>

礼来

<p>礼来的股票在 2025 年下跌了 17%，在最近的财报发布后大幅下滑 14%，尽管销售和净收入增长强劲。公司提高了业绩指引，但警告可能受到药品关税的影响。由于其减肥药 orforglipron 的试验结果令人失望，市场对未来增长产生了担忧。该股票有望创下自 2008 年以来的最差表现，这让投资者对是否现在买入产生了疑问，因为它仍然是 GLP-1 市场的领导者，并且正在开发更多产品</p>

<p><strong>Eli Lilly</strong>(LLY -14.23%) stock is down big this year. It has lost 17% of its value thus far in 2025 (returns as of Aug. 7). It's not usual territory for the top healthcare stock to be in, given the tremendous growth it has achieved in recent years. On Thursday, the stock crashed 14% after reporting its recent earnings numbers, despite them seemingly looking strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>礼来</strong>(LLY -14.23%) 的股票今年大幅下跌。截至 2025 年 8 月 7 日，它的价值已经损失了 17%。考虑到近年来取得的巨大增长，这对于顶级医疗保健股票来说并不寻常。周四，尽管最近的财报看起来相当强劲，但该股票在公布财报后暴跌了 14%。</p>
</div><p>The stock is struggling badly, and if things don't improve in short order, Eli Lilly will be on track for its worst performance since 2008. Is the company in big trouble, or could this actually be a great time to invest in the healthcare stock, with it recently hitting a new 52-week low?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票表现不佳，如果短期内情况没有改善，礼来将面临自 2008 年以来最糟糕的表现。公司是否陷入了重大困境，或者这实际上是投资于这只医疗保健股票的好时机，因为它最近创下了 52 周的新低？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1NTMvY29uY2VybmVkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWEtcGllY2Utb2YtcGFwZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828553%2Fconcerned-person-looking-at-a-piece-of-paper.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings disappointment, despite guidance raise</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利失望，尽管上调了指引</h2>
</div><p>On Thursday, Eli Lilly reported its second-quarter numbers for 2025. For the period ending June 30, its sales rose by 38% to $15.6 billion, which was better than what analysts were projecting -- $14.7 billion. Net income nearly doubled, rising by 91% to $5.7 billion. Its adjusted per-share profit of $6.31 came in better than Wall Street estimates of $5.57.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，礼来公布了 2025 年第二季度的财务数据。截止到 6 月 30 日，该公司的销售额增长了 38%，达到了 156 亿美元，超出了分析师预测的 147 亿美元。净收入几乎翻了一番，增长了 91%，达到了 57 亿美元。其调整后的每股利润为 6.31 美元，超过了华尔街预期的 5.57 美元。</p>
</div><p>The company boosted its guidance for the year on both the top and bottom lines, but it cautioned that those estimates did not factor in the effect that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals may have on its business. Another factor which weighed on the stock was trial data on the company's obesity pill, orforglipron. On the highest dose, patients lost over 12% of their body weight, which wasn't as much as analysts were expecting. Given that people using the company's GLP-1 weight loss drug, Zepbound, can lose over 25% of their body weight, investors may be worried that Eli Lilly's future growth may not be as promising as it may have looked before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司上调了全年销售和净收入的指引，但警告称这些估计并未考虑到对进口药品征收关税可能对其业务产生的影响。另一个对股票造成压力的因素是公司肥胖药物 orforglipron 的临床试验数据。在最高剂量下，患者的体重减少超过 12%，这并没有达到分析师的预期。考虑到使用公司 GLP-1 减肥药 Zepbound 的患者可以减轻超过 25% 的体重，投资者可能担心礼来的未来增长可能没有之前看起来那么乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Eli Lilly stock hasn't been performing this badly since the Great Recession</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>礼来的股票自大萧条以来表现不佳</h2>
</div><p>Prior to Thursday's sell-off, the stock was on track for its worst year since 2016. But after the underwhelming news from the orforglipron trial, the stock is now looking like it may do worse than the near 13% decline it incurred in 2016. It could now be headed for its worst performance since the Great Recession, in 2008, when its shares fell by almost 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四的抛售之前，该股票正处于自 2016 年以来最糟糕的一年。但在 orforglipron 试验的令人失望的消息之后，该股票现在看起来可能会比 2016 年近 13% 的下跌表现更差。它现在可能正朝着自 2008 年大萧条以来最糟糕的表现迈进，当时其股价下跌了近 25%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
<th>Eli Lilly Stock Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>标普 500 回报</th>
<th>礼来股票回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.31%</td>
<td>32.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.23%</td>
<td>59.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>-19.44%</td>
<td>32.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.89%</td>
<td>63.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.26%</td>
<td>28.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.88%</td>
<td>13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>-6.24%</td>
<td>37.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.42%</td>
<td>14.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.54%</td>
<td>-12.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>-0.73%</td>
<td>22.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>11.39%</td>
<td>35.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>29.60%</td>
<td>3.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>13.41%</td>
<td>18.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
<td>18.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>12.78%</td>
<td>-1.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>23.45%</td>
<td>-11.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>-38.49%</td>
<td>-24.57%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Table by author. Data source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>表格由作者提供。数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Eli Lilly's stock highlights one of the big risks with investing in a stock that's trading at a high valuation -- expectations are also elevated. It's normally trading at over 60 times earnings and sometimes even more than 100 times its trailing profits. Investors have been paying a big premium for Eli Lilly because of the expectation that it will achieve even more growth in the years ahead, due to its promising GLP-1 drugs. When news came that orforglipron perhaps wouldn't be as good as expected, the stock nosedived.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的股票突显了投资于高估值股票的一个重大风险——预期也很高。它通常的市盈率超过 60 倍，有时甚至超过 100 倍的历史利润。由于预期礼来在未来几年将实现更大的增长，投资者为礼来支付了高额溢价，因为其前景看好的 GLP-1 药物。当消息传出 orforglipron 可能没有预期的那么好时，股票应声下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Eli Lilly stock right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买礼来股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Eli Lilly is a top healthcare company to invest in for the long haul, and I think that as long as you aren't in a rush to turn a quick profit, it can make for an excellent buy. Unfortunately, the market can sometimes be fickle and react strongly to any kind of negative developments. But the fact remains that Eli Lilly is a leader in the GLP-1 space and its business isn't dependent on just a single drug. It's working on getting bigger and developing more products. Poor trial results from orforglipron may be disappointing, but they shouldn't deter you from investing in what's still an excellent business overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来是一家值得长期投资的顶级医疗保健公司，我认为只要你不急于快速获利，它可以成为一个绝佳的买入机会。不幸的是，市场有时会反复无常，对任何负面消息做出强烈反应。但事实是，礼来在 GLP-1 领域处于领先地位，其业务并不依赖于单一药物。它正在努力扩大规模并开发更多产品。orforglipron 的临床试验结果不佳可能令人失望，但这不应阻止你投资于这家整体上仍然优秀的企业。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Eli Lilly haven't been this low since early 2024, and now may be a great time to invest in the business for the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>礼来的股票自 2024 年初以来未曾如此低迷，现在可能是长期投资于该业务的好时机。</p>
</div>

礼来的股票正面临自 2008 年以来的最差表现。投资者是否应该感到担忧？