<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 4.24%）刚刚公布了 2025 财年第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）的财务结果，令投资者感到满意。收入同比飙升 9.6%，达到 940 亿美元，而摊薄每股收益增长了 12.1%。这些头条数字超出了华尔街的预期。</p>
<p>尽管结果乐观，但苹果的股价却让人失望。截至 8 月 6 日，2025 年股价下跌了 15%。在过去的 12 个月里，股价基本持平。而同期 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨了 22%。这一趋势并未激励投资者信心。</p>
<p>但也许未来会带来乐观。这个消费品股票在一年后会处于何种状态？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyNjEvcG9pbnRpbmctYW5kLXBvbmRlcmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyNjEvcG9pbnRpbmctYW5kLXBvbmRlcmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>把握人工智能机会</h2>
<p>普遍观点是，苹果在持续进行的人工智能（AI）竞争中迄今为止落后。苹果智能是其与设备和软件集成的 AI 系统，已为用户推出了 20 种不同的功能。但它并没有给人们带来苹果一贯的惊艳效果。</p>
<p>原本预计将在 2024 年底推出一款 AI 驱动的 Siri。然而，这款更个性化的语音助手要到 2026 年才会推出。与此同时，其他大型科技公司已经全速前进，而苹果似乎在追赶。</p>
<p>不过，在最新的财报电话会议上，首席执行官蒂姆·库克给投资者带来了乐观的理由。他在 2025 财年第三季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们认为人工智能是我们这一生中最深刻的技术之一。” 也许他终于开始将人工智能视为一种能够对其业务产生巨大影响的重大范式转变。</p>
<p>苹果正在增加在与人工智能相关的资本支出（capex）上的投入。首席财务官凯文·帕雷克表示，资本支出 “将大幅增长”。在第三季度，公司资本支出总额为 35 亿美元。并购可能是计划的一部分。</p>
<p>因此，投资者不应对苹果在人工智能项目上更加积极的推进感到惊讶。从战略角度来看，这似乎是正确的举措。归根结底，这一切都是关于苹果能够增强其竞争地位。很难说接下来会推出什么新产品或服务。</p>
<p>同样，很难看到对公司财务状况的任何实质性影响。对苹果而言，这意味着能够销售更多设备，同时增长服务部门。根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，苹果的收入将在 2025 财年增长 6.3%，在 2026 财年增长 4.8%。</p>
<h2>准确预测是困难的</h2>
<p>对于投资者来说，了解企业当前的状况以及未来可能发生的事情是一个有价值的练习。然而，正确预测股票的走势几乎是不可能的。涉及的变量太多。</p>
<p>就其价值而言，苹果股票的共识目标价为 233.61 美元，这意味着从今天的价格来看有 10.9% 的上涨空间。这无疑将是过去 12 个月表现的改善。这是一个我不会感到惊讶的收益。</p>
<p>但关注苹果的投资者不应基于未来 12 个月可能发生的事情做出决策。相反，值得评估这是否是一个你希望在未来五年内持有的业务。这是以长期思维进行投资的正确方式。</p>
<p>目前，苹果股票的市盈率为 31.9。这对于一家如今增长较难的公司来说是一个高估值。公平地说，苹果拥有全球最强大的品牌之一，其产品和服务需求巨大，盈利能力也令人惊叹。然而，我不相信持有这只股票的投资者在 2030 年前会实现超越市场的回报，无论未来一年发生什么。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果公司报告 2025 年第三季度收入增长 9.6%，达到 940 亿美元，稀释每股收益增长 12.1%，超出华尔街预期。尽管如此，2025 年股价下跌了 15%。首席执行官蒂姆·库克强调了人工智能的重要性，并计划增加在人工智能方面的资本支出。分析师预测 2025 财年的收入将增长 6.3%。苹果股票的共识目标价为 233.61 美元，暗示有 10.9% 的上涨空间。然而，股票的高估值可能限制到 2030 年市场超越回报，促使投资者采取长期投资的视角</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 4.24%) just reported third-quarter 2025 (ended June 28) financial results that pleased investors. Revenue soared 9.6% year over year to $94 billion, while diluted earnings per share climbed 12.1%. These headline figures beat Wall Street estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 4.24%）刚刚公布了 2025 财年第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）的财务结果，令投资者感到满意。收入同比飙升 9.6%，达到 940 亿美元，而摊薄每股收益增长了 12.1%。这些头条数字超出了华尔街的预期。</p>
</div><p>Despite the upbeat results, Apple shares have disappointed. They're down 15% in 2025 (as of Aug. 6). And in the last 12 months, they are essentially flat. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index is up 22% during the same time. This trend doesn't inspire confidence among the investment community.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管结果乐观，但苹果的股价却让人失望。截至 8 月 6 日，2025 年股价下跌了 15%。在过去的 12 个月里，股价基本持平。而同期 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨了 22%。这一趋势并未激励投资者信心。</p>
</div><p>But maybe the future will bring optimism. Where will this consumer discretionary stock be one year from now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也许未来会带来乐观。这个消费品股票在一年后会处于何种状态？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyNjEvcG9pbnRpbmctYW5kLXBvbmRlcmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828261%2Fpointing-and-pondering.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Leaning into the AI opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>把握人工智能机会</h2>
</div><p>The general view is that Apple has so far fallen behind in the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) race. Apple Intelligence, its AI system that's integrated with its devices and software, has launched 20 different features for users. But it hasn't exactly had that wow factor that people are accustomed to seeing from Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普遍观点是，苹果在持续进行的人工智能（AI）竞争中迄今为止落后。苹果智能是其与设备和软件集成的 AI 系统，已为用户推出了 20 种不同的功能。但它并没有给人们带来苹果一贯的惊艳效果。</p>
</div><p>There was also supposed to be an AI-powered Siri launching in late 2024. However, this more personalized voice assistant won't be introduced until sometime in 2026. Big tech peers have gone full steam ahead in the meantime, while it appears that Apple is playing catch-up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原本预计将在 2024 年底推出一款 AI 驱动的 Siri。然而，这款更个性化的语音助手要到 2026 年才会推出。与此同时，其他大型科技公司已经全速前进，而苹果似乎在追赶。</p>
</div><p>On the latest earnings call, though, CEO Tim Cook gave investors a reason to be bullish. &#34;We see AI as one of the most profound technologies of our lifetime,&#34; he said on the Q3 2025 earnings call. Maybe he's finally starting to regard AI as a serious paradigm shift that can have huge implications for his business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在最新的财报电话会议上，首席执行官蒂姆·库克给投资者带来了乐观的理由。他在 2025 财年第三季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们认为人工智能是我们这一生中最深刻的技术之一。” 也许他终于开始将人工智能视为一种能够对其业务产生巨大影响的重大范式转变。</p>
</div><p>Apple is raising the amount of money it's spending on AI-related capital expenditures (capex). CFO Kevan Parekh said capex spending &#34;is going to grow substantially.&#34; In Q3, the company's capex totaled $3.5 billion. Mergers and acquisitions could be part of the plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果正在增加在与人工智能相关的资本支出（capex）上的投入。首席财务官凯文·帕雷克表示，资本支出 “将大幅增长”。在第三季度，公司资本支出总额为 35 亿美元。并购可能是计划的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, investors shouldn't be surprised for Apple to push more aggressively into AI initiatives. This seems to be the right move from a strategic perspective. At the end of the day, it's all about Apple being able to bolster its competitive position. It's hard to say what new products or services will come next from this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投资者不应对苹果在人工智能项目上更加积极的推进感到惊讶。从战略角度来看，这似乎是正确的举措。归根结底，这一切都是关于苹果能够增强其竞争地位。很难说接下来会推出什么新产品或服务。</p>
</div><p>It's also difficult to see any meaningful effect on the company's financials. For Apple, this means being able to sell more devices and simultaneously grow the services segment. According to Wall Street consensus analyst estimates, Apple's revenue will rise 6.3% in fiscal 2025 and 4.8% in fiscal 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，很难看到对公司财务状况的任何实质性影响。对苹果而言，这意味着能够销售更多设备，同时增长服务部门。根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，苹果的收入将在 2025 财年增长 6.3%，在 2026 财年增长 4.8%。</p>
</div><h2>Making accurate predictions is hard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>准确预测是困难的</h2>
</div><p>It can be a valuable exercise for investors to understand the current situation that a business is in, as well as what the near future might hold. However, making correct predictions about the direction of a stock is almost impossible to do. There are so many variables at play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，了解企业当前的状况以及未来可能发生的事情是一个有价值的练习。然而，正确预测股票的走势几乎是不可能的。涉及的变量太多。</p>
</div><p>For what it's worth, the consensus price target for Apple shares is $233.61, which implies 10.9% upside from today's price. That would certainly be an improvement from the last 12 months' performance. It's a gain that I wouldn't be surprised by.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就其价值而言，苹果股票的共识目标价为 233.61 美元，这意味着从今天的价格来看有 10.9% 的上涨空间。这无疑将是过去 12 个月表现的改善。这是一个我不会感到惊讶的收益。</p>
</div><p>But investors looking at Apple shouldn't make a decision based on what could happen over the next 12 months. Instead, it's worth assessing whether or not this is a business that you'd want to own for the next five years. That's the proper way to invest, with a long-term mindset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但关注苹果的投资者不应基于未来 12 个月可能发生的事情做出决策。相反，值得评估这是否是一个你希望在未来五年内持有的业务。这是以长期思维进行投资的正确方式。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Apple stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.9. That's a high valuation to pay for a company whose growth is harder to come by these days. To be fair, Apple possesses one of the world's strongest brands, its products and services are hugely in demand, and its profitability is incredible. However, I don't believe investors who own this stock will achieve market-beating returns between now and 2030, regardless of what happens in the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，苹果股票的市盈率为 31.9。这对于一家如今增长较难的公司来说是一个高估值。公平地说，苹果拥有全球最强大的品牌之一，其产品和服务需求巨大，盈利能力也令人惊叹。然而，我不相信持有这只股票的投资者在 2030 年前会实现超越市场的回报，无论未来一年发生什么。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Be in 1 Year?

- 苹果公司第三季度财报显示收入增长 9.6%，达 940 亿美元。  
- 尽管业绩向好，股价在 2025 年下跌 15%。  
- CEO 库克表示将加大对人工智能的投资，未来可能会推出新产品。

一年后苹果公司将处于什么位置？