<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) 是全球最大的公司，市值约为 4.4 万亿美元。它之所以能达到这个地位，得益于其在处理数据中心训练和推理工作负载的人工智能 (AI) 芯片市场中的主导地位。</p>
<p>对 AI 芯片的强劲需求帮助英伟达在过去几个季度实现了卓越的增长。尽管 2025 年开局艰难，但截至 8 月 4 日市场收盘，其出色的增长使其在过去一年中市场收益达到了 68%。事实上，英伟达股票的回报轻松超过了同期 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的 18% 增长。</p>
<p>然而，投资者可能会想知道英伟达是否有能力在未来一年内维持其势头，特别是考虑到其巨大的市值和高估值。在本文中，我将更仔细地研究英伟达的催化因素，并看看该股票在一年后可能会处于何种状态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这些发展表明英伟达还有更多上涨空间</h2>
<p>全球云计算巨头和各国政府的大规模支出在推动英伟达最近几个季度的卓越收入和盈利增长中发挥了核心作用。好的一面是，英伟达可以继续依靠这些增长渠道。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等大型科技公司的资本支出预计将在今年达到 3640 亿美元，高于之前估计的 3250 亿美元。这些公司正在大力投资于 AI 数据中心基础设施，以向客户提供更多以 AI 为中心的云解决方案。</p>
<p>更新后的资本支出预测显示，与去年支出相比，预计将增加 63%。预计这笔支出的相当一部分将用于为 AI 基础设施提供动力的芯片。麦肯锡估计，60% 的 AI 基础设施支出可能会用于芯片和计算硬件。</p>
<p>因此，英伟达的可寻址市场可能会扩大。重要的是，该公司在 AI 芯片市场中处于领先地位，预计在去年年底的市场份额超过 90%。</p>
<p>另一个将为英伟达股票带来良好提振的因素是其进入中国市场的机会。今年 4 月，由于对其 AI 芯片销售到中国的出口限制，该公司被迫退出中国市场。然而，英伟达最近指出，它已获得保证，可以再次向中国客户销售其 AI 芯片。</p>
<p>据报道，该公司已向其代工合作伙伴 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> (TSMC) 下单 30 万个针对中国市场的 AI 芯片。这是除了英伟达目前持有的 60 万到 70 万个现有 H20 AI 处理器之外的订单。预计英伟达将在下半年从对中国客户的销售中产生约 150 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，英伟达在 2026 财年第一季度因对中国客户的发货限制而遭受了 45 亿美元的费用。该公司还强调，由于这些出口限制，其 2026 财年第二季度的收入将受到 80 亿美元的影响。同时，各国政府在 AI 基础设施上的积极支出预计将使英伟达的年收入增加 100 亿到 150 亿美元。</p>
<p>因此，不要惊讶于看到英伟达在当前财年（将于 2026 年 1 月结束）的收入超过华尔街对 2010 亿美元的预期，这将比去年增长 54%。</p>
<h2>但估值如何？</h2>
<p>英伟达股票最近的上涨使其市销率 (P/S) 达到 29，市盈率 (P/E) 达到 56。为了证明其高估值，该公司需要以比市场预期更快的速度继续增长。</p>
<p>上述潜在增长表明它确实有能力做到这一点。该公司计划重新进入中国市场，加上大型科技公司在购买英伟达数据中心处理器方面的 AI 相关支出大幅增加，可能会轻松帮助其在未来一年超越市场共识预期。</p>
<p>预计英伟达将实现的令人印象深刻的增长是其前瞻性盈利倍数远低于历史倍数的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>因此，成长型投资者仍应考虑购买这只 AI 股票，最乐观的分析师为其设定了未来 12 个月的目标价为 250 美元。这意味着从当前水平潜在收益为 39%，而且由于未来一年在 AI 基础设施上的健康支出，英伟达很有可能达到这一目标。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达（Nvidia，股票代码：NVDA）的市值为 4.4 万亿美元，得益于其在人工智能芯片领域的主导地位。过去一年，该股上涨了 68%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数。随着科技巨头增加资本支出以及可能重新进入中国市场，英伟达的收入可能会超过华尔街对 2024 财年的预期，即 2010 亿美元。尽管估值较高，但增长前景依然强劲，分析师预测目标价为 250 美元，意味着潜在的 39% 上涨空间</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) is the world's largest company, with a market cap around $4.4 trillion. It has reached this place thanks to its dominant position in the market for artificial intelligence (AI) chips that handle training and inference workloads in data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.05%) 是全球最大的公司，市值约为 4.4 万亿美元。它之所以能达到这个地位，得益于其在处理数据中心训练和推理工作负载的人工智能 (AI) 芯片市场中的主导地位。</p>
</div><p>The booming demand for AI chips has helped Nvidia deliver outstanding growth over the past several quarters. Its terrific growth has led to healthy market gains of 68% in the past year as of market close Aug. 4, despite a difficult start to 2025. In fact, Nvidia stock's returns have easily outpaced the 18% gains clocked by the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index during this same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 AI 芯片的强劲需求帮助英伟达在过去几个季度实现了卓越的增长。尽管 2025 年开局艰难，但截至 8 月 4 日市场收盘，其出色的增长使其在过去一年中市场收益达到了 68%。事实上，英伟达股票的回报轻松超过了同期 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的 18% 增长。</p>
</div><p>Investors, however, may be wondering whether Nvidia has the ability to sustain its momentum in the coming year, especially considering its huge market cap and high valuation. In this article, I will take a closer look at Nvidia's catalysts and see where the stock could be after a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者可能会想知道英伟达是否有能力在未来一年内维持其势头，特别是考虑到其巨大的市值和高估值。在本文中，我将更仔细地研究英伟达的催化因素，并看看该股票在一年后可能会处于何种状态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwNDQvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jaXJjdWl0LWJvYXJkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828044%2Fai-written-on-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>These developments suggest Nvidia has room for more upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这些发展表明英伟达还有更多上涨空间</h2>
</div><p>Massive spending by cloud computing giants and governments around the globe has played a central role in driving Nvidia's outstanding revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters. The good part is that Nvidia can continue counting on these avenues for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球云计算巨头和各国政府的大规模支出在推动英伟达最近几个季度的卓越收入和盈利增长中发挥了核心作用。好的一面是，英伟达可以继续依靠这些增长渠道。</p>
</div><p>For instance, the capital expenses of big tech players <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> are expected to hit $364 billion this year, up from an earlier estimate of $325 billion. All these companies are investing substantially in AI data center infrastructure to bring more AI-focused cloud solutions to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等大型科技公司的资本支出预计将在今年达到 3640 亿美元，高于之前估计的 3250 亿美元。这些公司正在大力投资于 AI 数据中心基础设施，以向客户提供更多以 AI 为中心的云解决方案。</p>
</div><p>The updated capital spending forecast points toward a 63% increase from last year's outlay. A nice chunk of this spending can be expected to be directed toward chips that power AI infrastructure. McKinsey estimates that 60% of AI infrastructure spending is likely to be directed toward chips and computing hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更新后的资本支出预测显示，与去年支出相比，预计将增加 63%。预计这笔支出的相当一部分将用于为 AI 基础设施提供动力的芯片。麦肯锡估计，60% 的 AI 基础设施支出可能会用于芯片和计算硬件。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's addressable market, therefore, is likely to expand. Importantly, the company is the leading player in the AI chip market, with an estimated share of more than 90% at the end of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，英伟达的可寻址市场可能会扩大。重要的是，该公司在 AI 芯片市场中处于领先地位，预计在去年年底的市场份额超过 90%。</p>
</div><p>Another factor that's going to give Nvidia stock a nice boost is its access to the Chinese market. The company was frozen out of China in April of this year following export restrictions on the sales of its AI chips to that country. However, Nvidia recently pointed out that it has received assurances it will be able to sell its AI chips to Chinese customers once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个将为英伟达股票带来良好提振的因素是其进入中国市场的机会。今年 4 月，由于对其 AI 芯片销售到中国的出口限制，该公司被迫退出中国市场。然而，英伟达最近指出，它已获得保证，可以再次向中国客户销售其 AI 芯片。</p>
</div><p>The company has reportedly placed orders for 300,000 China-specific AI chips with its foundry partner <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company</strong> (TSMC). That's in addition to the stockpile of 600,000 to 700,000 existing H20 AI processors that Nvidia is currently sitting on. Nvidia is expected to generate an estimated $15 billion in revenue from sales to Chinese customers in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，该公司已向其代工合作伙伴 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> (TSMC) 下单 30 万个针对中国市场的 AI 芯片。这是除了英伟达目前持有的 60 万到 70 万个现有 H20 AI 处理器之外的订单。预计英伟达将在下半年从对中国客户的销售中产生约 150 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>It is worth noting that Nvidia incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 on account of restrictions on shipments to Chinese customers. The company also highlighted that its fiscal Q2 revenue would take an $8 billion hit because of those export restrictions. Meanwhile, the aggressive spending on AI infrastructure by governments across the globe is expected to boost Nvidia's annual revenue by $10 billion to $15 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，英伟达在 2026 财年第一季度因对中国客户的发货限制而遭受了 45 亿美元的费用。该公司还强调，由于这些出口限制，其 2026 财年第二季度的收入将受到 80 亿美元的影响。同时，各国政府在 AI 基础设施上的积极支出预计将使英伟达的年收入增加 100 亿到 150 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>As such, don't be surprised to see Nvidia's revenue in the current fiscal year (which will end in January 2026) coast past Wall Street's expectations of $201 billion, which would translate into an increase of 54% from last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，不要惊讶于看到英伟达在当前财年（将于 2026 年 1 月结束）的收入超过华尔街对 2010 亿美元的预期，这将比去年增长 54%。</p>
</div><h2>But what about the valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但估值如何？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia stock's recent rally has brought its price-to-sales (P/S) multiple to 29 and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 56. The company needs to keep growing at a faster pace than the market's expectations to justify its rich valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达股票最近的上涨使其市销率 (P/S) 达到 29，市盈率 (P/E) 达到 56。为了证明其高估值，该公司需要以比市场预期更快的速度继续增长。</p>
</div><p>The potential growth outlined above suggest it is indeed capable of doing so. The company's planned re-entry into the Chinese market, along with the substantial increase in AI-related spending by big tech companies that have been buying Nvidia's data center processors, could easily help it eclipse consensus expectations in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上述潜在增长表明它确实有能力做到这一点。该公司计划重新进入中国市场，加上大型科技公司在购买英伟达数据中心处理器方面的 AI 相关支出大幅增加，可能会轻松帮助其在未来一年超越市场共识预期。</p>
</div><p>The impressive growth Nvidia is expected to deliver is the reason its forward earnings multiples are much lower than the trailing ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计英伟达将实现的令人印象深刻的增长是其前瞻性盈利倍数远低于历史倍数的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/810165463169d85682b1b2de2d56fc1d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来源于 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>So, growth investors should still consider buying this AI stock, which the most optimistic analyst gives a price target of $250 for the next 12 months. That points toward potential gains of 39% from current levels, and there is a good chance that Nvidia could end up hitting that mark thanks to the healthy spending on AI infrastructure in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，成长型投资者仍应考虑购买这只 AI 股票，最乐观的分析师为其设定了未来 12 个月的目标价为 250 美元。这意味着从当前水平潜在收益为 39%，而且由于未来一年在 AI 基础设施上的健康支出，英伟达很有可能达到这一目标。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 1 Year?

- Nvidia 市值约 4.4 万亿美元，主导 AI 芯片市场，增长强劲。  
- 大型科技公司预计资本支出将达 3640 亿美元，推动 Nvidia 收入增长。  
- Nvidia 预计在中国市场销售将带来 150 亿美元收入，超出华尔街预期。  

一年后英伟达的股票会达到什么水平？