<p>每个季度，似乎总有一只股票开始落后于所谓的人工智能（AI）赢家，即 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>。这个夏天，开始落后的正是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.23%）。</p>
<p>这家云计算、电子商务平台和物流基础设施巨头的股票在报告其云计算部门的增长速度低于竞争对手后，股价从高点下跌了 10%。然而，如果你是一位关注长期投资的投资者，你会知道，关注整体大局比华尔街关注个别股票要更为重要。</p>
<p>以下是亚马逊股票在未来十年内将飙升并可能在 2030 年超越英伟达和 Palantir <em>总和</em> 的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在云计算领域落后？</h2>
<p>在第二季度，亚马逊的云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——实现了 17.5% 的收入增长，达到了 309 亿美元。年化收入为 1236 亿美元。然而，这一增长速度远低于竞争对手，例如微软 Azure，由于与 OpenAI 的紧密关系，其收入增长达到了 34%，而 OpenAI 在云计算服务上的支出如火如荼。</p>
<p>投资者将这种增长的二元性视为 AWS 的警告信号。它是否在落后于微软？虽然如果亚马逊赢得了与 OpenAI 的合作关系那将是件好事，但它在人工智能领域并没有被完全抛弃。</p>
<p>AWS 与第二大人工智能初创公司 Anthropic 有着密切的合作关系，该公司估值接近 2000 亿美元。Anthropic 的收入正在迅速增长，7 月份的年化销售额达到了 50 亿美元，而一个月前为 40 亿美元。Anthropic 已承诺在 AWS 上投入数十亿美元，这将有助于加速该部门的收入增长。</p>
<p>尽管微软等公司缩小了差距，但 AWS 今天仍然是云计算的领导者，并且应该能从未来几年人工智能支出上升的潮流中受益。这将推动该部门的收入和盈利增长。在过去 12 个月中，AWS 的营业收入为 430 亿美元，到 2030 年可能接近 1000 亿美元。</p>
<h2>利润扩张故事</h2>
<p>投资者可能已经忘记了亚马逊业务的原始核心：电子商务及其 Prime 订阅服务。北美电子商务销售仍在以两位数增长，上个季度增长了 11%，达到了 1000 亿美元，过去 12 个月的销售额为 4040 亿美元。国际市场——包括西欧、日本和印度等地区——在过去 12 个月的销售额达到了 1500 亿美元。</p>
<p>广告服务的 22% 增长正在推动亚马逊零售部门的利润扩张。在过去 12 个月中，北美零售的营业利润率为 7%，国际市场的利润率为 3.4%。</p>
<p>与此同时，亚马逊持续在 Alexa 和 Project Kuiper 等大胆项目上进行再投资，并在美国农村地区的快速配送服务上进行再投资。随着这些投资要么带来运营杠杆，要么逐步淘汰，亚马逊的零售部门将继续扩大利润率。我预计到 2030 年，北美的利润率将提升至至少 15%，国际市场的利润率将达到 10%，尽管这一过程可能不会是线性的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4f15d09b0cf11752439f17c0a9d8161.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4f15d09b0cf11752439f17c0a9d8161.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>为什么亚马逊可以超越英伟达和 Palantir</h2>
<p>这让我回到英伟达和 Palantir，这两家巨头的市值总和达到 5 万亿美元。我认为亚马逊能够超越这些人工智能赢家，并在 2030 年成为全球最大的公司的原因有三个。</p>
<p>首先，亚马逊背后有两个增长引擎：云计算和电子商务/零售。这大大扩展了亚马逊的可寻址市场。即使其整体收入超过 6700 亿美元，未来几年公司仍有很大的销售增长空间。利润扩张将导致公司获得更高的利润。</p>
<p>其次，亚马逊是英伟达的客户。它旨在减少对这家先进芯片制造商的依赖，其 Trainium 芯片每个季度都在增加产能。这是从英伟达手中夺取的市场份额。</p>
<p>第三，亚马逊的估值远低于英伟达或 Palantir。英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 41，而亚马逊为 33。Palantir 的市盈率高达 278，未来几年将对其股价造成重大拖累。综合考虑，我认为亚马逊在 2030 年有机会拥有更大的市值，而英伟达和 Palantir 将面临增长困难，这使得亚马逊在当前价格下成为投资者更好的选择。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票最近因其云计算部门 AWS 的增长速度较慢而下跌了 10%，与微软等竞争对手相比。尽管如此，长期投资者仍然看好亚马逊在 2030 年前超越英伟达和 Palantir 的潜力，这得益于其云计算和电子商务的强劲收入增长。亚马逊与人工智能初创公司 Anthropic 的合作，以及其相较于英伟达和 Palantir 的较低估值，使其在未来增长中处于有利位置。分析师预测显著的利润率扩张和利润增长，使亚马逊成为一个有吸引力的投资选择</p>

<p>Each quarter, another stock seems to start lagging the so-called winners in artificial intelligence (AI), namely <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, and <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>. This summer, it is <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.23%) that has begun to fall behind the pack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个季度，似乎总有一只股票开始落后于所谓的人工智能（AI）赢家，即 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>。这个夏天，开始落后的正是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.23%）。</p>
</div><p>The cloud computing, e-commerce platform, and logistical infrastructure giant saw its stock drop 10% from highs after reporting slower growth in its cloud computing division compared to the competition. However, if you are an investor focused on the long term, you know that it is better to focus on the broad forest while Wall Street looks at the individual trees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家云计算、电子商务平台和物流基础设施巨头的股票在报告其云计算部门的增长速度低于竞争对手后，股价从高点下跌了 10%。然而，如果你是一位关注长期投资的投资者，你会知道，关注整体大局比华尔街关注个别股票要更为重要。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Amazon stock is set to soar for the rest of the decade and can become larger than Nvidia and Palantir <em>combined</em> in 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是亚马逊股票在未来十年内将飙升并可能在 2030 年超越英伟达和 Palantir <em>总和</em> 的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgyOTkvYWktMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828299%2Fai-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Falling behind in cloud computing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在云计算领域落后？</h2>
</div><p>In the second quarter, Amazon's cloud computing division -- Amazon Web Services, or AWS -- posted 17.5% revenue growth to $30.9 billion. Or, an annualized rate of $123.6 billion. However, this was much slower growth than the competition such as Microsoft Azure, which posted 34% revenue growth due to its large relationship with OpenAI, which is spending like gangbusters on cloud computing services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，亚马逊的云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——实现了 17.5% 的收入增长，达到了 309 亿美元。年化收入为 1236 亿美元。然而，这一增长速度远低于竞争对手，例如微软 Azure，由于与 OpenAI 的紧密关系，其收入增长达到了 34%，而 OpenAI 在云计算服务上的支出如火如荼。</p>
</div><p>Investors see this dichotomy in growth as a warning sign for AWS. Is it falling behind Microsoft? While it would be nice if Amazon won the OpenAI relationship, it is not getting left out to dry in AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将这种增长的二元性视为 AWS 的警告信号。它是否在落后于微软？虽然如果亚马逊赢得了与 OpenAI 的合作关系那将是件好事，但它在人工智能领域并没有被完全抛弃。</p>
</div><p>AWS has a large relationship with Anthropic, the second-largest AI start-up, which is valued at close to $200 billion. Revenue for Anthropic is exploding, hitting $5 billion in annualized sales in July compared to $4 billion a month prior. Anthropic has committed billions of dollars to spend on AWS, which will help accelerate revenue growth for the division.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 与第二大人工智能初创公司 Anthropic 有着密切的合作关系，该公司估值接近 2000 亿美元。Anthropic 的收入正在迅速增长，7 月份的年化销售额达到了 50 亿美元，而一个月前为 40 亿美元。Anthropic 已承诺在 AWS 上投入数十亿美元，这将有助于加速该部门的收入增长。</p>
</div><p>While Microsoft and others have narrowed the gap, AWS is still the leader in cloud computing today and should benefit from the rising tide of AI spending in the years to come. This will drive revenue and earnings higher for the segment. Operating income was $43 billion for AWS over the last 12 months, and could rise to close to $100 billion by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管微软等公司缩小了差距，但 AWS 今天仍然是云计算的领导者，并且应该能从未来几年人工智能支出上升的潮流中受益。这将推动该部门的收入和盈利增长。在过去 12 个月中，AWS 的营业收入为 430 亿美元，到 2030 年可能接近 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>A margin expansion story</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利润扩张故事</h2>
</div><p>Investors may have forgotten the original heartbeat of Amazon's business: e-commerce and its Prime subscription service. North American e-commerce sales are still growing in the double digits, up 11% last quarter to $100 billion and $404 billion over the last 12 months. International -- which includes Western Europe, Japan, and India, among other regions -- has hit $150 billion in trailing-12-month sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能已经忘记了亚马逊业务的原始核心：电子商务及其 Prime 订阅服务。北美电子商务销售仍在以两位数增长，上个季度增长了 11%，达到了 1000 亿美元，过去 12 个月的销售额为 4040 亿美元。国际市场——包括西欧、日本和印度等地区——在过去 12 个月的销售额达到了 1500 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Growth of 22% in advertising services is driving margin expansion for Amazon's retail divisions. Over the last 12 months, North American retail has an operating margin of 7% and international a margin of 3.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>广告服务的 22% 增长正在推动亚马逊零售部门的利润扩张。在过去 12 个月中，北美零售的营业利润率为 7%，国际市场的利润率为 3.4%。</p>
</div><p>This is while Amazon keeps reinvesting in moonshot projects such as Alexa and Project Kuiper, as well as reinvestments into fast delivery services into rural areas of the United States. As these investments either bear operating leverage or are phased out, Amazon's retail divisions will keep expanding profit margins. I expect North American margin to scale to at least 15% due to advertising revenue and 10% for international by 2030, although the path will likely not be linear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，亚马逊持续在 Alexa 和 Project Kuiper 等大胆项目上进行再投资，并在美国农村地区的快速配送服务上进行再投资。随着这些投资要么带来运营杠杆，要么逐步淘汰，亚马逊的零售部门将继续扩大利润率。我预计到 2030 年，北美的利润率将提升至至少 15%，国际市场的利润率将达到 10%，尽管这一过程可能不会是线性的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4f15d09b0cf11752439f17c0a9d8161.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4f15d09b0cf11752439f17c0a9d8161.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why Amazon can beat Nvidia and Palantir</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么亚马逊可以超越英伟达和 Palantir</h2>
</div><p>Which brings me back to Nvidia and Palantir, two behemoths with a combined market cap of $5 trillion. There are three reasons I think Amazon can outpace these AI winners and be the largest company in the world by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我回到英伟达和 Palantir，这两家巨头的市值总和达到 5 万亿美元。我认为亚马逊能够超越这些人工智能赢家，并在 2030 年成为全球最大的公司的原因有三个。</p>
</div><p>First, Amazon has two growth engines at its back: cloud computing and e-commerce/retail. This greatly expands Amazon's addressable market. Even with its overall revenue pushing past $670 billion, there is still plenty of room for the company to keep growing its sales in the years to come. Margin expansion will lead to even high profits for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，亚马逊背后有两个增长引擎：云计算和电子商务/零售。这大大扩展了亚马逊的可寻址市场。即使其整体收入超过 6700 亿美元，未来几年公司仍有很大的销售增长空间。利润扩张将导致公司获得更高的利润。</p>
</div><p>Second, Amazon is a customer of Nvidia. It aims to reduce its reliance on the advanced computer chip maker, with its Trainium chip taking on more capacity every quarter. This is market share being taken away from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，亚马逊是英伟达的客户。它旨在减少对这家先进芯片制造商的依赖，其 Trainium 芯片每个季度都在增加产能。这是从英伟达手中夺取的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon has a much cheaper valuation than Nvidia or Palantir. Nvidia has a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 41 compared to 33 for Amazon. Palantir's is a sky-high 278 and will be a major drag on the stock in the coming years. Add it all up, and I think Amazon has a chance to have a much larger market cap by 2030 while Nvidia and Palantir will struggle to grow, making Amazon a better buy for investors at current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亚马逊的估值远低于英伟达或 Palantir。英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 41，而亚马逊为 33。Palantir 的市盈率高达 278，未来几年将对其股价造成重大拖累。综合考虑，我认为亚马逊在 2030 年有机会拥有更大的市值，而英伟达和 Palantir 将面临增长困难，这使得亚马逊在当前价格下成为投资者更好的选择。</p>
</div>

This AI Stock Just Sank 10% but Could Be Worth More Than Nvidia and Palantir Combined in 2030

- 亚马逊股价因云计算增长放缓下跌 10%。
- AWS 仍是云计算领导者，预计收入将持续增长。
- 亚马逊有望在 2030 年超越 Nvidia 和 Palantir，成为全球最大公司。

这只 AI 股票刚刚下跌了 10%，但到 2030 年可能会比英伟达和 Palantir 的总和更具价值