<p>沃伦·巴菲特正在向投资者传达某种信息——不是通过他所说的话，而是通过他在其投资集团 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 的资产负债表上的行动。这些行动应被视为警告信号，因为股市在最近几个月达到了较高的估值水平。</p>
<p>随着市场和伯克希尔哈撒韦股票的飙升，巴菲特却在收缩并建立巨额现金头寸。你应该跟随他的脚步吗？以下是巴菲特的举动可能对股市以及伯克希尔哈撒韦本身的意义。</p>
<h2>巨额现金储备与暂停股票回购</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的两个行动表明巴菲特目前的谨慎态度：现金储备的增加和暂停股票回购。上个季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金及现金等价物达到了 3440 亿美元，这一数额超过了全球除 27 家上市公司外的所有公司的市值。</p>
<p>巴菲特持续出售他投资组合中的股票，如 <strong>苹果</strong>，截至第二季度末，他的累计持仓减少至 2670 亿美元。这意味着伯克希尔哈撒韦有更多的资本处于观望状态，而不是投资于股市。</p>
<p>近年来，巴菲特利用其多余现金回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。但现在不再如此。在 2025 年第二季度，巴菲特完全停止了股票回购，这与 2020 年至 2022 年每季度数十亿美元的回购速度相比，显著放缓。伯克希尔利用现金减少流通股，但仅在巴菲特认为自己的股票交易价格低于其内在价值时才会进行。</p>
<p>在第二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的市净率 (P/B) 达到了近 10 年的最高点，接近 1.8。随着市净率的上升，回购股票的放缓表明巴菲特认为目前伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票对投资者来说并不便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>估值飙升应让投资者感到紧张</h2>
<p>尽管巴菲特的现金储备创下历史新高，并且在 2025 年前六个月中获得了 250 亿美元的运营收益，但他仍然保持观望，拒绝购买更多股票——这表明了巴菲特对整体股市的看法。</p>
<p>历史上，当估值过高时，巴菲特会增加现金头寸并退出股票市场，例如在 1968 年和 1999 年。短期内这看起来可能愚蠢，但从长远来看，在高市盈率 (P/E) 下购买股票将导致未来的回报更差，其他条件不变。如今，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的市盈率为 30，远高于其长期平均水平。快速增长的股票 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的市盈率为 59，而即使是增长较慢的 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 的市盈率也为 42。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，巴菲特在这种市场环境中发现很难找到便宜的股票可供购买。相反，他宁愿持有现金等价物，赚取保证的利息收入，等待出手的机会。这种耐心是巴菲特在几十年中成为历史上最优秀投资者之一的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>你该怎么做？</h2>
<p>投资者应关注巴菲特的行动。他在股市飙升时对伯克希尔哈撒韦的资产负债表变得越来越谨慎。</p>
<p>然而，你的应对措施完全取决于你的个人财务状况。如果你是 40 岁以下的年轻人，只要资金是为退休或未来多年储蓄的，你不必过于担心投资组合中股票的高市盈率。</p>
<p>另一方面，年长的投资者应更加关注巴菲特的行动。如果你正在提取退休金或计划用于即将到来的支出，切勿将整个投资组合都投入股票，因为此时的市盈率处于如此高的水平。存在重大回调和回归长期均值的风险。</p>
<p>相反，可以将资金投入现金等价物，如国债，或更便宜的分红股票。巴菲特在苹果的例子在这方面是一个很好的教训。他大幅削减了在这家低增长科技巨头的持仓，其市盈率在 30 到 40 之间，这并未给未来的强劲回报带来信心。</p>
<p>保持谨慎，不要在股市创下历史新高时过于乐观。铭记巴菲特的历史教训，并根据你的个人财务状况保持一个平衡的投资组合。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特通过他在伯克希尔哈撒韦的行动向投资者发出了谨慎的信号，他已建立了 3440 亿美元的现金头寸，并暂停了股票回购。这反映了他对股市估值过高的担忧，目前标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 30。巴菲特的策略表明，他在等待更好的投资机会，建议年长投资者要谨慎，并考虑现金等价物或支付股息的股票，而不是高市盈率的股票。他的历史方法强调在不确定的市场条件下保持投资组合的平衡</p>

<p>Warren Buffett is telling investors something -- not through what he has said, but through his actions with the balance sheet of his investment conglomerate <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%). These actions should be taken as a warning sign with the stock market reaching elevated valuation levels in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特正在向投资者传达某种信息——不是通过他所说的话，而是通过他在其投资集团 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 的资产负债表上的行动。这些行动应被视为警告信号，因为股市在最近几个月达到了较高的估值水平。</p>
</div><p>As the market and Berkshire Hathaway stock soar, Buffett is pulling back and building a huge cash position. Should you follow his lead? Here's what Buffett's moves could mean for the stock market as well as Berkshire Hathaway itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场和伯克希尔哈撒韦股票的飙升，巴菲特却在收缩并建立巨额现金头寸。你应该跟随他的脚步吗？以下是巴菲特的举动可能对股市以及伯克希尔哈撒韦本身的意义。</p>
</div><h2>Huge cash pile and halted share buybacks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨额现金储备与暂停股票回购</h2>
</div><p>Two actions from Berkshire Hathaway indicate a level of caution for Buffett at the moment: a rising cash pile and the halting of share buybacks. Last quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's level of cash and equivalents reached $344 billion, which is larger than the market capitalizations of all but 27 publicly traded companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的两个行动表明巴菲特目前的谨慎态度：现金储备的增加和暂停股票回购。上个季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金及现金等价物达到了 3440 亿美元，这一数额超过了全球除 27 家上市公司外的所有公司的市值。</p>
</div><p>Buffett keeps selling stocks in his portfolio such as <strong>Apple</strong>, reducing his cumulative position to $267 billion as of the end of the second quarter. This means Berkshire Hathaway has more of its capital sitting on the sidelines than invested in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特持续出售他投资组合中的股票，如 <strong>苹果</strong>，截至第二季度末，他的累计持仓减少至 2670 亿美元。这意味着伯克希尔哈撒韦有更多的资本处于观望状态，而不是投资于股市。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, Buffett has used his excess cash to repurchase shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock. No longer. In the second quarter of 2025, Buffett completely halted share repurchases, which is a huge slowdown compared to a quarterly rate in the billions of dollars back in 2020 to 2022. Berkshire uses the cash to reduce its shares outstanding, but only when Buffett believes his own stock is trading at a discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，巴菲特利用其多余现金回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。但现在不再如此。在 2025 年第二季度，巴菲特完全停止了股票回购，这与 2020 年至 2022 年每季度数十亿美元的回购速度相比，显著放缓。伯克希尔利用现金减少流通股，但仅在巴菲特认为自己的股票交易价格低于其内在价值时才会进行。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's price-to-book value (P/B), a good metric for evaluating an insurance and investment company, grew to a 10-year high of close to 1.8. Slowing share buybacks with the P/B rising like this indicates that Buffett does not believe Berkshire Hathaway stock is a bargain for investors at the moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的市净率 (P/B) 达到了近 10 年的最高点，接近 1.8。随着市净率的上升，回购股票的放缓表明巴菲特认为目前伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票对投资者来说并不便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxNzgvYnVmZmV0dDMtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828178%2Fbuffett3-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Soaring valuations should make investors nervous</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值飙升应让投资者感到紧张</h2>
</div><p>Even though Buffett has a record high cash pile and brought in $25 billion in operating earnings through the first six months of 2025, he has still sat on the sideline and declined to purchase more stocks -- an indicator of what Buffett thinks of the stock market in general.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管巴菲特的现金储备创下历史新高，并且在 2025 年前六个月中获得了 250 亿美元的运营收益，但他仍然保持观望，拒绝购买更多股票——这表明了巴菲特对整体股市的看法。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Buffett has increased his cash position and exited stocks when valuations got overheated, such as 1968 and 1999. In the near term this can look foolish, but over the long run buying stocks at an elevated price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) will lead to worse forward results, all else equal. Today, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index trades at a P/E ratio of 30, which is well above its long-term average. Fast-growing stock <strong>Nvidia</strong> trades at a P/E of 59, while even slower-growing <strong>Walmart</strong> trades at a P/E of 42.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，当估值过高时，巴菲特会增加现金头寸并退出股票市场，例如在 1968 年和 1999 年。短期内这看起来可能愚蠢，但从长远来看，在高市盈率 (P/E) 下购买股票将导致未来的回报更差，其他条件不变。如今，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的市盈率为 30，远高于其长期平均水平。快速增长的股票 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的市盈率为 59，而即使是增长较慢的 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 的市盈率也为 42。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, Buffett is finding it tough to identify bargain stocks to buy in this market environment. Instead, he would rather sit on a cash equivalent and earn guaranteed interest income, waiting for his opportunity to strike. This patience is why Buffett has crushed the market over the decades as one of the best investors of all time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，巴菲特在这种市场环境中发现很难找到便宜的股票可供购买。相反，他宁愿持有现金等价物，赚取保证的利息收入，等待出手的机会。这种耐心是巴菲特在几十年中成为历史上最优秀投资者之一的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e85f4824af5050516e9648ee5a331f68.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What should you do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你该怎么做？</h2>
</div><p>Investors should heed Buffett's actions. He is getting increasingly cautious with Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet as the market soars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应关注巴菲特的行动。他在股市飙升时对伯克希尔哈撒韦的资产负债表变得越来越谨慎。</p>
</div><p>What you do about it entirely depends on your personal financial situation, however. If you are a younger person under the age of 40, you do not necessarily need to worry about high P/E ratios from stocks in your investing portfolio, as long as the money is being saved for retirement or many years into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你的应对措施完全取决于你的个人财务状况。如果你是 40 岁以下的年轻人，只要资金是为退休或未来多年储蓄的，你不必过于担心投资组合中股票的高市盈率。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, older investors should pay much closer attention to Buffett's actions. You do not want your entire portfolio in stocks if you are drawing down money for retirement or plan to use it for any upcoming expenses with P/E ratios at such elevated levels. There is a major risk of a correction and regression to the long-term mean.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，年长的投资者应更加关注巴菲特的行动。如果你正在提取退休金或计划用于即将到来的支出，切勿将整个投资组合都投入股票，因为此时的市盈率处于如此高的水平。存在重大回调和回归长期均值的风险。</p>
</div><p>Instead, put money into cash equivalents like Treasury bonds, or cheaper dividend-paying stocks. Buffett's example with Apple is a good lesson in this regard. He greatly trimmed his position with the low-growth technology giant's P/E ratio between 30 and 40, which does not inspire confidence for strong forward returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，可以将资金投入现金等价物，如国债，或更便宜的分红股票。巴菲特在苹果的例子在这方面是一个很好的教训。他大幅削减了在这家低增长科技巨头的持仓，其市盈率在 30 到 40 之间，这并未给未来的强劲回报带来信心。</p>
</div><p>Stay cautious, and do not get over your skis with the stock market chugging to all-time highs. Take Buffett's historical lessons to heart and keep a balanced investment portfolio for your personal financial situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保持谨慎，不要在股市创下历史新高时过于乐观。铭记巴菲特的历史教训，并根据你的个人财务状况保持一个平衡的投资组合。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's Bright Warning to Wall Street: Here's What It Means for Berkshire Hathaway and the Stock Market

- 巴菲特通过增加现金储备和停止股票回购显示出谨慎态度。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金达到 3440 亿美元，表明市场估值过高。  
- 投资者应关注巴菲特的行动，保持投资组合的平衡。  

沃伦·巴菲特对华尔街的明确警告：这对伯克希尔哈撒韦和股市意味着什么