<p>沃伦·巴菲特最近对股市并没有看到太多令人满意的地方。事实上，他和他的投资经理团队在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 已经连续 11 个季度净卖出股票。</p>
<p>巴菲特的股票销售在过去五个季度加速。这包括伯克希尔在 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 的巨额股份出售。同时，他停止了购买一只自 2018 年中以来每个季度都在买入的股票。因此，伯克希尔的现金储备已攀升至惊人的 3440 亿美元。</p>
<p>但市场可能正在给巴菲特提供一个机会，让他再次开始购买他最喜欢的股票，投资者也应该考虑这样做。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>巴菲特并没有试图把握市场时机</h2>
<p>巴菲特在过去几年的大规模股票销售以及缺乏购买，可能被一些人视为这位奥马哈的先知试图预测未来和把握市场时机。虽然这看起来像是市场时机把握，但巴菲特只是坚持了他作为投资者在过去 60 年左右所采用的有效策略。</p>
<p>“我们试图_定价_，而不是_时机_，” 巴菲特在 1994 年致股东的信中写道。伯克希尔的股票销售也可以这样理解。如果市场对伯克希尔的某项持股提供了巨额溢价，巴菲特就应该出售它，口袋里装上现金，然后寻找那些交易价格远低于其内在价值的股票机会。这甚至可能包括购买伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
<p>事实上，董事会在 2018 年更新了其股票回购政策，允许巴菲特在公司股票交易低于其内在价值时回购股票，内在价值是保守估算的。巴菲特在这一变化后迅速开始回购股票，表明该股票看起来像是个便宜货。在 2018 年至 2024 年 5 月之间，巴菲特花费了 780 亿美元回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
<p>然而，在过去 14 个月中，巴菲特并没有根据伯克希尔的季度财报花费一美元回购股票。他对自己设定的标准与他对所有伯克希尔投资公司的首席执行官所期望的标准一样高。“所有股票回购都应该依赖于价格。以商业价值的折扣进行的回购是合理的，但如果以溢价进行则变得愚蠢，” 他在 2023 年致股东的信中写道。</p>
<p>但自从巴菲特在 5 月的年度会议上宣布他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务以来，伯克希尔的股票价格大幅下跌。在第二季度财报引发的进一步抛售后，股票开始显得更加吸引人。这可能为巴菲特开始回购伯克希尔的股票打开了大门。</p>
<h2>巴菲特会再次开始购买吗？</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的收益让许多投资者失望，导致市场抛售该股票。</p>
<p>在 2024 年表现出色后，保险业务恢复到更正常的运营状态，包括由于加州野火而在今年早些时候的大额赔付。这导致承保利润下降，推动该综合企业的总运营收益在上个季度下降近 4%。然而，值得注意的是，伯克希尔在上个季度面临了显著的外汇逆风，这对运营收益产生了负面影响。</p>
<p>伯克希尔还将其 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 投资减记了 50 亿美元。这是在 2019 年进行的 30 亿美元减值后的进一步负面影响。</p>
<p>尽管如此，巴菲特看到伯克希尔哈撒韦的每股账面价值上升，包括第一季度的 2.1% 增长，以及与一年前相比的 10.9% 增长。结合过去三个月股票价格的下跌，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票现在的市净率约为 1.5。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A 每股账面价值数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>这是一个重要的估值，因为当巴菲特最后一次回购伯克希尔的股票时，该股票的交易价格低于该估值。自去年 5 月以来，该股票很少跌破该价格。但在抛售后，股票显然更具吸引力。</p>
<p>有几个因素可能会阻止巴菲特在当前价格下购买。首先，伯克希尔的可交易股权投资组合是其账面价值的重要因素。巴菲特可能仍然认为投资组合中的大多数股票被高估，尤其是在过去一年股票持续上涨的情况下。这将促使他对伯克希尔股票要求更低的倍数，因为回购伯克希尔股票也意味着购买其股权投资组合的一小部分。</p>
<p>另一个因素是，他可能希望在不久的将来用一大笔现金来增强铁路业务。<strong>联合太平洋</strong> 和 <strong>诺福克南方</strong> 已同意合并，这威胁到伯克希尔的伯灵顿北方圣菲的竞争力。</p>
<p>考虑到伯克希尔的资产负债表的强劲，以及目前不依赖保险浮存金进行任何资本运作，它的市净率应该高于历史水平。随着股票交易在账面价值的 1.5 倍左右，该股票终于看起来再次接近其内在价值，值得购买。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>沃伦·巴菲特在过去 11 个季度中一直是股票的净卖家，这使得伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备达到了 3440 亿美元。尽管最近进行了股票销售，但市场可能为巴菲特提供了回购伯克希尔股票的机会，因为其价格已经下跌。然而，他依然保持谨慎，遵循基于价值而非时机的购买原则。伯克希尔的股权投资组合估值以及对铁路业务的潜在投资等因素可能会影响他回购股票的决定</p>

<p>Warren Buffett hasn't seen a lot to like in the stock market recently. In fact, he and his team of investment managers at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) have been net sellers of stocks for 11 straight quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特最近对股市并没有看到太多令人满意的地方。事实上，他和他的投资经理团队在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.40%)(BRK.B 0.83%) 已经连续 11 个季度净卖出股票。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's stock sales have accelerated over the past five quarters. That includes monster sales of Berkshire's stakes in <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Bank of America</strong>. In the meantime, he's stopped buying one stock investors had seen him buy consistently each quarter since mid-2018. As a result, Berkshire's cash pile has climbed to a whopping $344 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的股票销售在过去五个季度加速。这包括伯克希尔在 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 的巨额股份出售。同时，他停止了购买一只自 2018 年中以来每个季度都在买入的股票。因此，伯克希尔的现金储备已攀升至惊人的 3440 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But the market may be offering Buffett an opportunity to start buying his favorite stock again, and investors should consider doing the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市场可能正在给巴菲特提供一个机会，让他再次开始购买他最喜欢的股票，投资者也应该考虑这样做。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg0OTAvYnVmZmV0dDgtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828490%2Fbuffett8-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett isn't timing the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特并没有试图把握市场时机</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's big stock sales over the last few years and his lack of purchases may be seen by some as the Oracle of Omaha trying to predict the future and time the market. While it might look like market timing, Buffett is merely sticking to what's worked for him as an investor for the last 60 years or so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在过去几年的大规模股票销售以及缺乏购买，可能被一些人视为这位奥马哈的先知试图预测未来和把握市场时机。虽然这看起来像是市场时机把握，但巴菲特只是坚持了他作为投资者在过去 60 年左右所采用的有效策略。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We try to <em>price,</em> rather than <em>time,</em> purchases,&#34; Buffett wrote in his 1994 letter to shareholders. The same could be said of Berkshire's stock sales. If the market is offering a massive premium on one of Berkshire's holdings, Buffett ought to sell it, pocket the cash, and look for opportunities in stocks trading well below their intrinsic value. That could even include buying Berkshire Hathaway shares themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们试图_定价_，而不是_时机_，” 巴菲特在 1994 年致股东的信中写道。伯克希尔的股票销售也可以这样理解。如果市场对伯克希尔的某项持股提供了巨额溢价，巴菲特就应该出售它，口袋里装上现金，然后寻找那些交易价格远低于其内在价值的股票机会。这甚至可能包括购买伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the board of directors updated its share repurchase policy in 2018, allowing Buffett to buy back shares of the company as long as it traded below its intrinsic value, conservatively determined. Buffett quickly went to work buying back shares following that change, indicating that the stock looked like a bargain. Between 2018 and May 2024, Buffett spent $78 billion buying back shares of Berkshire Hathaway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，董事会在 2018 年更新了其股票回购政策，允许巴菲特在公司股票交易低于其内在价值时回购股票，内在价值是保守估算的。巴菲特在这一变化后迅速开始回购股票，表明该股票看起来像是个便宜货。在 2018 年至 2024 年 5 月之间，巴菲特花费了 780 亿美元回购伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 14 months, however, Buffett hasn't spent a single dollar buying back the stock based on Berkshire's quarterly earnings reports. He holds himself to the same high standards he expects of the CEOs of all the companies Berkshire invests in. &#34;All stock repurchases should be price-dependent. What is sensible at a discount to business-value becomes stupid if done at a premium,&#34; he wrote in his 2023 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在过去 14 个月中，巴菲特并没有根据伯克希尔的季度财报花费一美元回购股票。他对自己设定的标准与他对所有伯克希尔投资公司的首席执行官所期望的标准一样高。“所有股票回购都应该依赖于价格。以商业价值的折扣进行的回购是合理的，但如果以溢价进行则变得愚蠢，” 他在 2023 年致股东的信中写道。</p>
</div><p>But Berkshire shares have fallen considerably since Buffett announced he would step down as CEO at the end of the year during the company's annual meeting in May. And after a further sell-off sparked by its second-quarter earnings report, shares are starting to look a lot more appealing. That could open the door for Buffett to start buying back Berkshire's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自从巴菲特在 5 月的年度会议上宣布他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务以来，伯克希尔的股票价格大幅下跌。在第二季度财报引发的进一步抛售后，股票开始显得更加吸引人。这可能为巴菲特开始回购伯克希尔的股票打开了大门。</p>
</div><h2>Will Buffett start buying again?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特会再次开始购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway's earnings disappointed many investors, leading the market to sell off the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的收益让许多投资者失望，导致市场抛售该股票。</p>
</div><p>After a stellar 2024, the insurance business is back to more normalized operations, including big payouts earlier this year due to the California wildfires. That's led to a drop in underwriting profits, which pushed the conglomerate's total operating earnings down nearly 4% last quarter. It's worth noting, however, that Berkshire faced significant foreign exchange headwinds last quarter, which negatively affected operating earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年表现出色后，保险业务恢复到更正常的运营状态，包括由于加州野火而在今年早些时候的大额赔付。这导致承保利润下降，推动该综合企业的总运营收益在上个季度下降近 4%。然而，值得注意的是，伯克希尔在上个季度面临了显著的外汇逆风，这对运营收益产生了负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire also wrote down its <strong>Kraft Heinz</strong> investment by $5 billion. That follows a $3 billion impairment charge it took in 2019. That further negatively affected reported earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔还将其 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 投资减记了 50 亿美元。这是在 2019 年进行的 30 亿美元减值后的进一步负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Buffett has seen the book value per share of Berkshire Hathaway climb, including a 2.1% gain from the first quarter, and a 10.9% increase from a year ago. Combined with the declining stock price over the last three months, Berkshire Hathaway shares now trade for a price-to-book ratio of about 1.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，巴菲特看到伯克希尔哈撒韦的每股账面价值上升，包括第一季度的 2.1% 增长，以及与一年前相比的 10.9% 增长。结合过去三个月股票价格的下跌，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票现在的市净率约为 1.5。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7468312d003d3ce3ab30b9edd8a84b85.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.A Book Value (Per Share) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.A 每股账面价值数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That's an important valuation, because when Buffett last repurchased shares of Berkshire, the stock traded below that valuation. The stock has rarely dipped below that price since last May. But shares are certainly more attractive after the sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个重要的估值，因为当巴菲特最后一次回购伯克希尔的股票时，该股票的交易价格低于该估值。自去年 5 月以来，该股票很少跌破该价格。但在抛售后，股票显然更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>A couple of factors could keep Buffett from buying at the current price. First, Berkshire's marketable equity portfolio is a significant factor in its book value. Buffett may still see most of the stocks in the portfolio as overpriced, especially as stocks continued to climb over the past year. That would push him to require a lower multiple for Berkshire stock, since repurchasing Berkshire shares would also mean purchasing a small piece of its equity portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有几个因素可能会阻止巴菲特在当前价格下购买。首先，伯克希尔的可交易股权投资组合是其账面价值的重要因素。巴菲特可能仍然认为投资组合中的大多数股票被高估，尤其是在过去一年股票持续上涨的情况下。这将促使他对伯克希尔股票要求更低的倍数，因为回购伯克希尔股票也意味着购买其股权投资组合的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>The other factor is that he may want to use a significant chunk of cash to bolster the railroad business in the near future. <strong>Union Pacific</strong> and <strong>Norfolk Southern</strong> have agreed to a merger, threatening the competitiveness of Berkshire's Burlington Northern Santa Fe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个因素是，他可能希望在不久的将来用一大笔现金来增强铁路业务。<strong>联合太平洋</strong> 和 <strong>诺福克南方</strong> 已同意合并，这威胁到伯克希尔的伯灵顿北方圣菲的竞争力。</p>
</div><p>When you consider the strength of Berkshire's balance sheet and that it's not relying on insurance float for any capital at this point, it should trade for a higher price-to-book value ratio than it has historically. With shares trading around 1.5 times book value, the stock finally looks to be trading near its intrinsic value again, making it worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到伯克希尔的资产负债表的强劲，以及目前不依赖保险浮存金进行任何资本运作，它的市净率应该高于历史水平。随着股票交易在账面价值的 1.5 倍左右，该股票终于看起来再次接近其内在价值，值得购买。</p>
</div>

After Sitting on the Sidelines For 14 Months, Warren Buffett Could Be Buying One of His Favorite Stocks Again

- 巴菲特及其团队在过去 11 个季度持续净卖出股票，现金储备达 3440 亿美元。  
- 由于市场下跌，伯克希尔的股票价格接近内在价值，可能吸引巴菲特回购。  
- 伯克希尔的运营收益因外汇和投资减值下滑，但每股账面价值仍在上升。  

在旁观了 14 个月后，沃伦·巴菲特可能会再次购买他钟爱的股票之一