<p>围绕人工智能（AI）的热潮已经进入了过度阶段，并带动了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.53%）的股票。作为一家为大型企业和美国政府提供软件和分析服务的公司，Palantir 现在是全球市值第 22 大的公司。过去一年，该股票上涨了近 600%。</p>
<p>投资者对 Palantir 情有独钟。然而，分析师的估计目标价为 150 美元，而截至 8 月 7 日的当前价格为 180 美元。这可能意味着 Palantir 的股票将从高点下跌 17%。</p>
<p>事实上，我认为下行风险可能更为严重。以下是股东在其巨额涨幅后应考虑抛售 Palantir 的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1MjMvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1MjMvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一家增长加速的优秀企业</h2>
<p>Palantir 的基础业务表现相当出色。上个季度，收入增长加速至 48%，达到了 10 亿美元。按年化计算，这大约为 40 亿美元。</p>
<p>其其他一些业务板块表现甚至更好。美国商业收入同比增长惊人，达到了 93%，达到了 3.06 亿美元，在此期间关闭了 157 笔超过 100 万美元的交易。</p>
<p>总体而言，Palantir 在此期间签署了 22.7 亿美元的合同价值，同比增长 140%。</p>
<p>尽管收入增长加速，利润率却在上升，这在快速增长的销售需要增加成本的情况下并不常见。上个季度，Palantir 的营业利润率为 27%，即 2.69 亿美元的营业收益。年化计算，这对公司来说超过了 10 亿美元的营业收入。</p>
<p>截至 2023 年底，Palantir 的市值仅为 130 亿美元，与其当前的盈利能力相比，正是一个绝佳的买入时机。</p>
<p>那么问题出在哪里？并不是 Palantir 的业务表现，而是股票的涨幅远远超过了自身的价值。</p>
<h2>有限的可寻址市场与股票规模的对比</h2>
<p>Palantir 为企业和政府提供分析和监控解决方案，针对每个企业量身定制。这对拥有大量数据需要解析的组织来说是一个宝贵的资产。</p>
<p>然而，它并没有一个无限的可寻址市场。首先，Palantir 仅对非常大的公司有价值，并且仅可供美国政府及其盟友使用。这在一定程度上减少了可寻址客户的长尾，至少在今天是如此。</p>
<p>其次，公司的当前市值并不支持即使是最大的可寻址市场假设。</p>
<p>我们可以用一家可比公司 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 来说明。Salesforce 是一个为市场部门和销售组织提供的软件平台，在美国有数百万家（更不用说全球）。在过去 12 个月中，它的收入接近 400 亿美元，并且预计在未来几年将稳步增长。</p>
<p>Palantir 在上个季度的年化收入为 40 亿美元，而其市值为 4250 亿美元，几乎是 Salesforce 的两倍。这是 10% 的收入，但市值却是两倍，市盈率（P/S）超过 100。</p>
<p>Palantir 无疑是目前所有软件股票中估值最高的，尤其是如果只考虑全球最大的几家软件企业。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaa84fd12ebd273fed9faec98a1883ba.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaa84fd12ebd273fed9faec98a1883ba.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>为什么你应该卖掉 Palantir 的股票</h2>
<p>宽泛地说，合理的市盈率（P/E）对于一家经常性收入的软件企业是 30。这是市值与过去收益的 30 倍。</p>
<p>在过去 12 个月中，Palantir 的净收入为 7.63 亿美元，年化收入为 40 亿美元。保持极度乐观，假设 Palantir 在未来五年内以 50% 的年增长率增长收入，并将净收入率提升至 40%（这在行业中将是最佳水平）。在七年后，Palantir 将产生惊人的 303 亿美元收入和 120 亿美元净收入，基于当前市值的市盈率为 35。</p>
<p>即使做出最乐观的假设，从今天的股票价格来看，投资者也无法获得正向的未来回报。对于 Palantir 来说，数学计算根本无法支持其为股东提供合理的回报。尽管该股票已经是一个巨大的赢家，但投资者在今天的交易价格下，明智的做法是削减、出售或避免购买 Palantir 的股票。</p>

PLTR

<p>华尔街分析师建议出售 Palantir Technologies（PLTR）股票，该股在过去一年中上涨了近 600%，可能会从当前的 180 美元价格下跌 17%。尽管上个季度收入增长了 48%，合同价值显著增加，但分析师认为该股的估值相对于其有限的可服务市场和收入潜力而言过高。该公司的市值为 4250 亿美元，市销率超过 100，因此该股被认为被高估，分析师建议减持或出售股票</p>

<p>The hype around artificial intelligence (AI) has gone into overdrive, and taken <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 2.53%) stock with it. A software and analytics provider for big business and the United States government, Palantir is now the 22nd-largest company in the world measured by market capitalization. The stock is up close to 600% in the last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕人工智能（AI）的热潮已经进入了过度阶段，并带动了 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.53%）的股票。作为一家为大型企业和美国政府提供软件和分析服务的公司，Palantir 现在是全球市值第 22 大的公司。过去一年，该股票上涨了近 600%。</p>
</div><p>Investors have fallen in love with Palantir. However, analyst estimates have a price target of $150 for the stock versus $180 as of this writing on Aug. 7. This could mean Palantir stock is set to fall 17% from highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对 Palantir 情有独钟。然而，分析师的估计目标价为 150 美元，而截至 8 月 7 日的当前价格为 180 美元。这可能意味着 Palantir 的股票将从高点下跌 17%。</p>
</div><p>In fact, I think the downside may be even more severe. Here's why shareholders should consider dumping Palantir after its monster run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，我认为下行风险可能更为严重。以下是股东在其巨额涨幅后应考虑抛售 Palantir 的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg1MjMvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828523%2Fai.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A great business with accelerating growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家增长加速的优秀企业</h2>
</div><p>The underlying business of Palantir is doing remarkably well. Revenue growth accelerated to 48% last quarter, hitting $1 billion. That is around $4 billion when annualized to a full year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的基础业务表现相当出色。上个季度，收入增长加速至 48%，达到了 10 亿美元。按年化计算，这大约为 40 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Some of its other segments are doing even better. United States commercial revenue grew an astonishing 93% year over year to $306 million, with 157 deals closed worth more than $1 million in the period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其其他一些业务板块表现甚至更好。美国商业收入同比增长惊人，达到了 93%，达到了 3.06 亿美元，在此期间关闭了 157 笔超过 100 万美元的交易。</p>
</div><p>On the whole, Palantir signed on $2.27 billion in contract value for the period, up 140% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，Palantir 在此期间签署了 22.7 亿美元的合同价值，同比增长 140%。</p>
</div><p>Profit margins are increasing even though revenue growth is accelerating, which is atypical due to increased costs needed to support fast-growing sales. Palantir had a 27% operating margin last quarter, or $269 million in operating earnings. Annualized, that is more than $1 billion in operating income for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管收入增长加速，利润率却在上升，这在快速增长的销售需要增加成本的情况下并不常见。上个季度，Palantir 的营业利润率为 27%，即 2.69 亿美元的营业收益。年化计算，这对公司来说超过了 10 亿美元的营业收入。</p>
</div><p>At the end of 2023, Palantir had a market cap of just $13 billion, making it a great time to scoop up shares when you compare it to the business' current earnings output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2023 年底，Palantir 的市值仅为 130 亿美元，与其当前的盈利能力相比，正是一个绝佳的买入时机。</p>
</div><p>So what's the problem? It is not what Palantir's business is doing, but the stock getting way ahead of itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么问题出在哪里？并不是 Palantir 的业务表现，而是股票的涨幅远远超过了自身的价值。</p>
</div><h2>Limited addressable market versus size of the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有限的可寻址市场与股票规模的对比</h2>
</div><p>Palantir offers businesses and the government analytical and monitoring solutions, custom-built for each enterprise. This is a valuable asset for organizations with tons of data to parse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 为企业和政府提供分析和监控解决方案，针对每个企业量身定制。这对拥有大量数据需要解析的组织来说是一个宝贵的资产。</p>
</div><p>However, it does not have a limitless addressable market. For one, Palantir is only valuable for very large companies, and it's only available to use for the U.S. government and its allies. This cuts down the long tail of addressable customers, at least today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它并没有一个无限的可寻址市场。首先，Palantir 仅对非常大的公司有价值，并且仅可供美国政府及其盟友使用。这在一定程度上减少了可寻址客户的长尾，至少在今天是如此。</p>
</div><p>Second, the company's current market cap does not justify even the largest addressable market assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，公司的当前市值并不支持即使是最大的可寻址市场假设。</p>
</div><p>Let's use a comparable company such as <strong>Salesforce</strong> to illustrate. Salesforce is a software platform for marketing departments and sales organizations, of which there are millions around the United States (not to mention globally). It generated close to $40 billion in revenue over the last 12 months and looks to steadily grow in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们可以用一家可比公司 <strong>Salesforce</strong> 来说明。Salesforce 是一个为市场部门和销售组织提供的软件平台，在美国有数百万家（更不用说全球）。在过去 12 个月中，它的收入接近 400 亿美元，并且预计在未来几年将稳步增长。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is generating $4 billion in annualized revenue based on this last quarter and is valued at a market cap of $425 billion, which is close to double Salesforce. That is 10% of the revenue but double the market cap, for a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) topping 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在上个季度的年化收入为 40 亿美元，而其市值为 4250 亿美元，几乎是 Salesforce 的两倍。这是 10% 的收入，但市值却是两倍，市盈率（P/S）超过 100。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has by far the most premium valuation of any software stock out there today, especially if you consider only the largest software businesses in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 无疑是目前所有软件股票中估值最高的，尤其是如果只考虑全球最大的几家软件企业。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaa84fd12ebd273fed9faec98a1883ba.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaa84fd12ebd273fed9faec98a1883ba.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why you should sell Palantir stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么你应该卖掉 Palantir 的股票</h2>
</div><p>Being generous, a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for a recurring revenue software business is 30. That is a 30x multiple of the market cap to trailing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宽泛地说，合理的市盈率（P/E）对于一家经常性收入的软件企业是 30。这是市值与过去收益的 30 倍。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 12 months, Palantir generated $763 million in net income and is on a $4 billion revenue run rate. Staying ultra-optimistic, let's assume that Palantir can grow its revenue at a 50% annual rate for the next five years and juice its net income margin to 40% (which would be best-in-class for the industry). In seven years, Palantir would be generating a staggering $30.3 billion in revenue and $12 billion in net income, or a P/E of 35 based on the current market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 12 个月中，Palantir 的净收入为 7.63 亿美元，年化收入为 40 亿美元。保持极度乐观，假设 Palantir 在未来五年内以 50% 的年增长率增长收入，并将净收入率提升至 40%（这在行业中将是最佳水平）。在七年后，Palantir 将产生惊人的 303 亿美元收入和 120 亿美元净收入，基于当前市值的市盈率为 35。</p>
</div><p>Even making the most optimistic assumptions doesn't provide investors with positive forward returns from today's stock price. The math just simply doesn't compute for Palantir to deliver reasonable returns for shareholders going forward. Even though the stock has been a monster winner, investors would be wise to trim, sell, or avoid buying Palantir stock at today's trading prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使做出最乐观的假设，从今天的股票价格来看，投资者也无法获得正向的未来回报。对于 Palantir 来说，数学计算根本无法支持其为股东提供合理的回报。尽管该股票已经是一个巨大的赢家，但投资者在今天的交易价格下，明智的做法是削减、出售或避免购买 Palantir 的股票。</p>
</div>

1 Popular AI Stock to Sell Before It Falls 17%, According to Wall Street Analysts (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- Palantir Technologies 股价在过去一年上涨近 600%，市值达 4250 亿美元。  
- 然而，分析师目标价为 150 美元，可能下跌 17%。  
- 尽管业务增长强劲，当前估值不合理，建议投资者考虑减持或卖出。

根据华尔街分析师的建议，有一只热门 AI 股票应该在下跌 17% 之前出售（提示：这只股票不是英伟达）