<p>X-bagger 指的是一种股票，其价值增长了 X 倍。在这种情况下，7-bagger 是指一种股票增长了 600%——而这正是 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.53%）在过去 12 个月中所实现的。这对于一家之前市值约为 540 亿美元的公司来说，确实是一个传奇的表现，也使其成为一个理想的买入并持有的候选者。</p>
<p>尽管 Palantir 最近的股价飙升令人印象深刻（轻描淡写），但对于在此期间没有持有任何股份的人来说，这并没有太大意义。对于考虑投资该股票的人来说，这一涨幅可能会带来谨慎，因为似乎回调是不可避免的。</p>
<p>考虑到未来五年，Palantir 是否具备继续其爆炸性增长的能力？虽然没有人能确定，但有一些因素可以帮助我们了解这种可能性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxMjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA0NTI2MjkzNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxMjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA0NTI2MjkzNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Palantir 当前的估值可能限制其爆炸性上涨空间</h2>
<p>每当我最近谈论 Palantir 的股票时，我都会指出这只股票在几乎所有标准下都是多么昂贵。这一点在任何时候都很重要，尤其是如果你在考虑其爆炸性增长的机会时。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，它的交易价格是明年预期收益的 274 倍和预期收入的 98.5 倍。其企业价值（市值 + 债务 - 现金）目前的交易价格约为其未来预期收入的 97 倍。为了提供一个参考，这些数字分别比 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 高出 6.5 倍和 4.5 倍，而后者在大多数标准下也被认为是非常昂贵的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96c1910bb006ae78f9086d431d7dbb35.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96c1910bb006ae78f9086d431d7dbb35.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>在这种情况下，Palantir 的前瞻市盈率是重要的，因为它显示投资者已经将大量未来增长的预期计入了价格。实际上，没有办法为 Palantir 当前的交易水平辩护，但如果你期待这只股票在未来五年内实现爆炸性增长，请知道这需要数年的前所未有和完美的执行才能实现。</p>
<p>这可能发生吗？当然。但这在很大程度上取决于你对 “爆炸性增长” 的定义。如果你期待更多短期内的 600% 增长，从这个点来看，这可能不是一个现实的展望。</p>
<h2>Palantir 在第二季度的财务表现令人印象深刻</h2>
<p>Palantir 在过去一年中的财务增长是其股价增长的部分原因。（强调 “部分”，因为这并不一定证明了 <em>如此</em> 大幅的上涨。）</p>
<p>在第二季度（Q2），其收入首次突破 10 亿美元。其美国政府收入占据了大部分，同比增长 53% 达到 4.26 亿美元。然而，其美国商业部门的增长最为显著，同比增长 93% 达到 3.06 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d767e105199c91b4b011a27e5d60138e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d767e105199c91b4b011a27e5d60138e.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>Palantir 的美国商业部门可能会成为其近期增长最快的部门，其首席执行官 Alex Karp 预测公司在未来五年内可以将美国收入提高十倍。即使能够实现这一目标，其当前的估值在未来收入的基础上仍然会显得非常昂贵。</p>
<h2>以长期思维看待 Palantir</h2>
<p>股市总是表现得不理性；这就是它的本质。因此，单纯从财务数据来看，认为 Palantir 的股票在未来五年内无法实现更多爆炸性增长并不能保证事情会如此发展。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我会建议谨慎对待这种预期。如果有的话，我会投资于 Palantir，计划长期持有这只股票，因为高波动性似乎是不可避免的。</p>
<p>一个很好的方法是采用定投策略，而不是在当前价格一次性投资。通过定投，你可以逐步获取股份，同时保护自己免受剧烈回调或在高估水平买入的风险。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 在过去一年中股价增长了惊人的 600%，使其成为一个潜在的买入并持有的候选者。然而，其当前估值较高，交易价格为预期收益的 274 倍和预期收入的 98.5 倍，这引发了对未来增长的担忧。尽管第二季度财务表现令人印象深刻，收入达到 10 亿美元，但投资者应谨慎行事，并考虑采用长期投资策略，例如定投，以降低与波动性相关的风险</p>

<p>A X-bagger refers to a stock that has multiplied in value by X times. In this case, a 7-bagger is a stock that has increased by 600% -- and that's exactly what <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 2.53%) has done over the past 12 months. That's a legendary run for a company that started off with a market cap of around $54 billion beforehand, and one that makes it a prime buy-and-hold candidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>X-bagger 指的是一种股票，其价值增长了 X 倍。在这种情况下，7-bagger 是指一种股票增长了 600%——而这正是 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.53%）在过去 12 个月中所实现的。这对于一家之前市值约为 540 亿美元的公司来说，确实是一个传奇的表现，也使其成为一个理想的买入并持有的候选者。</p>
</div><p>Although Palantir's recent stock price surge is impressive (to put it lightly), it doesn't mean too much for people who haven't owned any shares over that span. For people considering investing in the stock, this run may bring caution, with the worry that a pullback is seemingly inevitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Palantir 最近的股价飙升令人印象深刻（轻描淡写），但对于在此期间没有持有任何股份的人来说，这并没有太大意义。对于考虑投资该股票的人来说，这一涨幅可能会带来谨慎，因为似乎回调是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>With the next five years in mind, does Palantir have what it takes to continue its explosive growth? Although nobody can say for certain, there are a few factors in play that can help us get an idea of the likelihood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到未来五年，Palantir 是否具备继续其爆炸性增长的能力？虽然没有人能确定，但有一些因素可以帮助我们了解这种可能性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgxMjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjA0NTI2MjkzNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828127%2Fgettyimages-2045262936.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's current valuation could limit its explosive upside</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 当前的估值可能限制其爆炸性上涨空间</h2>
</div><p>Anytime I've talked about Palantir's stock recently, I've pointed out just how expensive the stock is by virtually any standard. It's important to know at any time, but especially if you're wondering about its chances for explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每当我最近谈论 Palantir 的股票时，我都会指出这只股票在几乎所有标准下都是多么昂贵。这一点在任何时候都很重要，尤其是如果你在考虑其爆炸性增长的机会时。</p>
</div><p>At the time of this writing, it's trading at 274 times its expected earnings for next year and 98.5 times its expected revenue. Its enterprise value (market cap + debt – cash) is currently trading around 97 times its forward expected revenue. For perspective, those are more than 6.5 and 4.5 times higher than <strong>Nvidia</strong>, respectively, which is also considered very expensive by most standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，它的交易价格是明年预期收益的 274 倍和预期收入的 98.5 倍。其企业价值（市值 + 债务 - 现金）目前的交易价格约为其未来预期收入的 97 倍。为了提供一个参考，这些数字分别比 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 高出 6.5 倍和 4.5 倍，而后者在大多数标准下也被认为是非常昂贵的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96c1910bb006ae78f9086d431d7dbb35.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/96c1910bb006ae78f9086d431d7dbb35.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In this case, Palantir's forward P/E ratio is what's important because it shows that investors have already priced in a lot of future growth. There's really no way to justify the levels Palantir is trading at, but if you're approaching the stock expecting explosive growth in the next five years, know that it would take years of unprecedented and flawless execution to pull it off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，Palantir 的前瞻市盈率是重要的，因为它显示投资者已经将大量未来增长的预期计入了价格。实际上，没有办法为 Palantir 当前的交易水平辩护，但如果你期待这只股票在未来五年内实现爆炸性增长，请知道这需要数年的前所未有和完美的执行才能实现。</p>
</div><p>Can it happen? Sure. But that largely depends on your definition of &#34;explosive growth.&#34; If you're expecting more short-term 600% gains, it's probably not a realistic outlook from this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能发生吗？当然。但这在很大程度上取决于你对 “爆炸性增长” 的定义。如果你期待更多短期内的 600% 增长，从这个点来看，这可能不是一个现实的展望。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir impressed with its second-quarter financials</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 在第二季度的财务表现令人印象深刻</h2>
</div><p>Palantir's impressive financial growth over the past year is part of the reason for its stock price growth. (Emphasis on &#34;part&#34; because it hasn't necessarily justified <em>this</em> much of a surge.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在过去一年中的财务增长是其股价增长的部分原因。（强调 “部分”，因为这并不一定证明了 <em>如此</em> 大幅的上涨。）</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter (Q2), its revenue hit $1 billion for the first time in company history. Its U.S. government revenue made up the bulk of it, growing 53% year over year (YOY) to $426 million. However, the growth of its U.S. commercial segment was the most impressive, growing 93% to $306 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度（Q2），其收入首次突破 10 亿美元。其美国政府收入占据了大部分，同比增长 53% 达到 4.26 亿美元。然而，其美国商业部门的增长最为显著，同比增长 93% 达到 3.06 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d767e105199c91b4b011a27e5d60138e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d767e105199c91b4b011a27e5d60138e.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Palantir's U.S. commercial segment will likely be its fastest-growing segment for the near future, and its CEO, Alex Karp, predicts that the company can increase its U.S. revenue tenfold in the next five years. Even if it's able to accomplish this, its current valuation with that future revenue would still be awfully expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的美国商业部门可能会成为其近期增长最快的部门，其首席执行官 Alex Karp 预测公司在未来五年内可以将美国收入提高十倍。即使能够实现这一目标，其当前的估值在未来收入的基础上仍然会显得非常昂贵。</p>
</div><h2>Approach Palantir with a long-term mindset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以长期思维看待 Palantir</h2>
</div><p>The stock market behaves irrationally all the time; that's just what it does. So, strictly looking at financials and saying Palantir's stock can't experience more explosive growth in the next five years isn't a guarantee of how things will play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市总是表现得不理性；这就是它的本质。因此，单纯从财务数据来看，认为 Palantir 的股票在未来五年内无法实现更多爆炸性增长并不能保证事情会如此发展。</p>
</div><p>That said, I would caution against approaching the stock with those expectations. If anything, I would invest in Palantir, planning to hold onto the stock for quite some time because high volatility seems inevitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我会建议谨慎对待这种预期。如果有的话，我会投资于 Palantir，计划长期持有这只股票，因为高波动性似乎是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>A great approach would be to dollar-cost average instead of investing a lump sum at its current price. By dollar-cost averaging, you can gradually acquire shares, while protecting yourself against sharp pullbacks or buying in at overinflated levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个很好的方法是采用定投策略，而不是在当前价格一次性投资。通过定投，你可以逐步获取股份，同时保护自己免受剧烈回调或在高估水平买入的风险。</p>
</div>

Is This 7-Bagger Stock Poised for Explosive Growth Over the Next 5 Years?

- Palantir Technologies 的股票在过去 12 个月内增长了 600%，成为 7-bagger。  
- 第二季度收入首次突破 10 亿美元，主要来自美国政府和商业部门。  
- 投资者应以长期视角看待 Palantir，避免短期内的高波动风险。  

这只七倍股是否有望在未来五年内实现爆炸性增长？