<p>7 月份的通胀报告将于周二上午 8:30（东部时间）发布，预计将确认 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 的贸易关税开始在消费者篮子中的更多类别中产生影响。这一变化可能会为联邦储备委员会在考虑降息时带来另一个障碍。</p>
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<li>IWM ETF 正在测试一个关键阻力位。查看最新价格请点击这里。</li>
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<h2>7 月通胀预览：关税对决开始</h2>
<p>华尔街经济学家预计消费者价格指数将连续第三个月上涨。</p>
<p>普遍预期年 CPI 将达到 2.9%，高于 6 月的 2.8%，并与 2 月以来的最高水平持平。</p>
<p>按月计算，预计价格将上涨 0.2%，略低于 6 月观察到的 0.3% 的增幅。预计大部分涨幅将来自零售商将更高的进口关税转嫁给消费者，特别是在家居用品和休闲商品方面。</p>
<p>剔除食品和能源后，核心通胀预计将加速。经济学家预测核心 CPI 月度增长 0.3%，为六个月以来的最大增幅，高于 6 月的 0.2%。年核心通胀率预计将从 2.9% 上升至 3%。</p>
<p>剔除食品和能源的核心通胀预计将从 6 月的 2.9% 上升至 3%，月度核心 CPI 预计将增长 0.3%，为六个月以来的最大增幅，此前为 0.2%。</p>
<h2><strong>经济学家看到更广泛的价格压力</strong> 在 7 月</h2>
<p>&#34;看起来通胀将进一步上升，超过 6 月的 2.7%，因为特朗普的 ‘解放日’ 关税的后果变得不可避免，&#34;<strong>Richard Potts</strong>，Bondford 的经济学家在一封电子邮件中评论道。</p>
<p>他补充说，越来越多的公司已经&#34;耗尽了他们在 4 月关税上涨前积累的便宜进口商品库存&#34;，现在&#34;几乎没有选择，只能将这些关税的新成本转嫁给消费者。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>Stephen Juneau</strong>，美国银行的经济学家，预计 7 月份核心商品价格将环比上涨 0.3%，增速快于 6 月。</p>
<p>&#34;关税应继续对价格施加上行压力，&#34;他说，强调服装价格上涨 1.2% 是主要驱动因素，即使新车和二手车价格预计再次下降。</p>
<p><strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 在高盛看到四个关键趋势影响 7 月数据。</p>
<p>她预测由于拍卖价格上涨，二手车价格将反弹 0.75%，新车价格因经销商激励措施而下降 0.2%，汽车保险费下降 0.1%，机票价格上涨 2%。</p>
<p>Rindel 还预计，尽管基础通胀趋势向下，未来几个月月度核心 CPI 将保持在 0.3% 到 0.4% 之间，受关税影响。高盛预计年末核心 CPI 将为 3.3%。</p>
<p>现在阅读：</p>
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<li>华尔街的 “壮丽七人” 热潮再次回归，股票达到创纪录的高估值</li>
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<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>七月份的通胀报告即将发布，预计消费者物价指数（CPI）将上升至 2.9%，这受到唐纳德·特朗普贸易关税的影响。经济学家预测整体价格将月增 0.2%，核心 CPI 将上升 0.3%，为六个月以来的最大增幅。这些关税导致零售商将更高的进口成本转嫁给消费者，尤其是在家庭用品方面。分析师预见价格将持续承压，预计核心通胀到年底将达到 3%</p>

<p>July's inflation report, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is likely to confirm that <strong>Donald Trump</strong>'s trade tariffs are beginning to ripple across more categories in the consumer basket. That shift could create another obstacle for the Federal Reserve as it weighs the timing of interest rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月份的通胀报告将于周二上午 8:30（东部时间）发布，预计将确认 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 的贸易关税开始在消费者篮子中的更多类别中产生影响。这一变化可能会为联邦储备委员会在考虑降息时带来另一个障碍。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>IWM ETF is testing a key resistance. Check the latest price here.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>IWM ETF 正在测试一个关键阻力位。查看最新价格请点击这里。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>July Inflation Preview: Tariffs Showdown Begins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>7 月通胀预览：关税对决开始</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street economists expect the Consumer Price Index to rise for a third straight month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街经济学家预计消费者价格指数将连续第三个月上涨。</p>
</div><p>The consensus view is for annual CPI to print at 2.9%, above June’s 2.8% and matching the highest level since February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普遍预期年 CPI 将达到 2.9%，高于 6 月的 2.8%，并与 2 月以来的最高水平持平。</p>
</div><p>On a monthly basis, prices are projected to rise by 0.2%, which is slightly below the 0.3% increase observed in June. Much of the increase is expected to come from retailers passing along higher import duties, especially in household furnishings and recreational goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按月计算，预计价格将上涨 0.2%，略低于 6 月观察到的 0.3% 的增幅。预计大部分涨幅将来自零售商将更高的进口关税转嫁给消费者，特别是在家居用品和休闲商品方面。</p>
</div><p>Excluding food and energy, core inflation is expected to accelerate. Economists forecast a 0.3% monthly gain in core CPI, the largest in six months, up from 0.2% in June. The annual core rate is projected to tick up from 2.9% to 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除食品和能源后，核心通胀预计将加速。经济学家预测核心 CPI 月度增长 0.3%，为六个月以来的最大增幅，高于 6 月的 0.2%。年核心通胀率预计将从 2.9% 上升至 3%。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to edge up to 3% from 2.9% in June, with the monthly core CPI expected to increase 0.3%, its sharpest rise in six months, after 0.2% previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除食品和能源的核心通胀预计将从 6 月的 2.9% 上升至 3%，月度核心 CPI 预计将增长 0.3%，为六个月以来的最大增幅，此前为 0.2%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Economists See Broader Price Pressures</strong> In July</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>经济学家看到更广泛的价格压力</strong> 在 7 月</h2>
</div><p>&#34;It seems likely that inflation will advance further over June's rate of 2.7% as the consequences of Trump's ‘Liberation Day' tariffs become inescapable,&#34; <strong>Richard Potts</strong>, economist at Bondford, said in an emailed comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;看起来通胀将进一步上升，超过 6 月的 2.7%，因为特朗普的 ‘解放日’ 关税的后果变得不可避免，&#34;<strong>Richard Potts</strong>，Bondford 的经济学家在一封电子邮件中评论道。</p>
</div><p>He added that a growing number of companies have &#34;exhausted the cheaper stockpiles of imported goods that they had built up in advance of April's tariff hikes&#34; and will now &#34;have little option but to pass on the new cost of these tariffs to consumers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，越来越多的公司已经&#34;耗尽了他们在 4 月关税上涨前积累的便宜进口商品库存&#34;，现在&#34;几乎没有选择，只能将这些关税的新成本转嫁给消费者。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Stephen Juneau</strong>, economist at Bank of America, expects core goods prices to rise 0.3% month-on-month in July, faster than in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Stephen Juneau</strong>，美国银行的经济学家，预计 7 月份核心商品价格将环比上涨 0.3%，增速快于 6 月。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Tariffs should continue to put upward pressure on prices,&#34; he said, highlighting a 1.2% surge in apparel prices as a leading driver, even as both new and used vehicle prices are projected to decline again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;关税应继续对价格施加上行压力，&#34;他说，强调服装价格上涨 1.2% 是主要驱动因素，即使新车和二手车价格预计再次下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> at Goldman Sachs sees four key trends shaping the July data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 在高盛看到四个关键趋势影响 7 月数据。</p>
</div><p>She forecasts a 0.75% rebound in used car prices due to higher auction prices, a 0.2% decline in new car prices resulting from stronger dealer incentives, a 0.1% decrease in car insurance premiums, and a 2% increase in airfares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她预测由于拍卖价格上涨，二手车价格将反弹 0.75%，新车价格因经销商激励措施而下降 0.2%，汽车保险费下降 0.1%，机票价格上涨 2%。</p>
</div><p>Rindel also expects monthly core CPI to remain between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to tariff effects, even as underlying inflation trends lower. Goldman expects the year-end core CPI to be 3.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rindel 还预计，尽管基础通胀趋势向下，未来几个月月度核心 CPI 将保持在 0.3% 到 0.4% 之间，受关税影响。高盛预计年末核心 CPI 将为 3.3%。</p>
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</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

July Inflation Set To Rise As Trump's Tariffs Bite

- 7 月的通胀报告预计将显示特朗普的贸易关税影响扩大。  
- 消费者价格指数预计年增 2.9%，核心通胀将升至 3%。  
- 关税将继续对价格施加上行压力，尤其在服装和家居用品领域。  

由于特朗普的关税开始产生影响，七月的通胀预计将上升