<p>不可避免的事情似乎正在发生。霍华德·斯特恩——这位有争议且标志性的早间节目主持人，二十年前让 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) 声名鹊起——可能将告别卫星广播。消息人士上周告诉《太阳报》，Sirius XM 将在其第四个五年合同结束后取消该节目。</p>
<p>自上周的消息披露以来，很多报道将其渲染为这位广播传奇的 “解雇”，你要么爱他要么恨他。但这并不完全正确。《太阳报》的消息来源表示，Sirius XM 将提出一个报价，但远低于斯特恩团队过去所获得的年收入九位数。</p>
<p>“Sirius 和斯特恩在他想要的金额上永远不会达成一致，” 这位匿名消息人士表示。“这笔投资不再值得。”</p>
<p>这也是市场面临的重大问题：Sirius XM 本身是否不再值得投资？该公司的股票价格和受欢迎程度都在下降。让我们仔细看看这个游走的媒体垄断接下来会走向何方。</p>
<h2>二十年的奢华衰退</h2>
<p>颠覆者终将被颠覆。十多年前，Sirius XM 是成长型投资者心目中的媒体股票宠儿，但如今它吸引的是因其低估值和丰厚分红而来的价值投资者。自 2014 年以来，公司的有机收入增长一直停留在个位数，这将是连续第三年出现负增长。</p>
<p>斯特恩在 2006 年从地面广播转向 Sirius，对这个新兴平台来说是个巨大的转折。Sirius 当时只有 330 万订阅用户，而更大的竞争对手 XM 则向其 600 万账户传输音频内容。斯特恩的到来使两者之间的竞争格局发生了变化，几年后，Sirius 在合并中占据了主导地位。</p>
<p>这发生在智能手机和联网汽车尚未普及之前，那时几乎每个驾驶者都能通过汽车音响无缝访问各种应用。然而，即使在观众数量收缩的情况下，Sirius XM 的听众人数仍是斯特恩转型前两家公司的总和的三倍多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>打断渐隐的声音</h2>
<p>Sirius XM 仍然盈利。它每年仍在产生十位数的自由现金流。如果这真的是斯特恩在该平台的终结——即使 Sirius XM 愿意为节目支付费用，这种可能性也一直存在——这并不意味着卫星广播的终结。如今，Sirius XM 面临的最大问题并不是留住听众。每月 1.5% 的流失率仍然徘徊在公司的历史平均水平附近。真正的挑战是寻找新听众。</p>
<p>年轻驾驶者体验免费试用服务的渠道已经干涸多年。联网汽车是一个因素，但工作场所的变化也很重要，长时间通勤的情况在居家办公的世界中不再普遍。而斯特恩对新听众的吸引力与 20 年前相比也有所不同。这并不是斯特恩的错。Sirius XM 是一个封闭的花园：如果你不是订阅者，就无法访问。斯特恩试图让自己在卫星广播粉丝群体之外变得相关。他曾在《美国达人秀》中担任主持人几年。然而，这并不是能激励人们注册高端车载和流媒体服务的工作。</p>
<p>过去 20 年，播客的兴起吸引了听众的耳朵。即使你在车里，你也会花更少的时间听广播，因为如果你不想听音乐流媒体应用，你现在可以流式播放你最喜欢的播客。Sirius XM 在这方面也在积极布局，签约了包括亚历克斯·库珀、Rotten 和 Smartless 等受欢迎的播客。这在斯特恩上次与 Sirius XM 续约时并不是一个重要的举措，但现在却成为了优先事项——尤其是如果该平台想要重返增长，就需要吸引年轻用户。</p>
<p>斯特恩会没事的。Sirius XM 也会没事的。投资者——在等待过程中——也会没事的。该股票目前的交易价格不到明年预期收益的 7 倍，且有 5.1% 的股息收益率。斯特恩不太可能以低价回归 Sirius XM，但投资者现在可以这样做。</p>

天狼星XM广播

<p>Sirius XM Holdings 可能会与霍华德·斯特恩分道扬镳，因为他的合同即将到期，有报道称公司将提供的薪酬远低于他之前的收入。尽管股价和订阅用户增长有所下降，Sirius XM 仍然保持盈利，并拥有可观的自由现金流。挑战在于在媒体消费习惯变化的背景下吸引新听众，包括播客的兴起。虽然斯特恩的离开可能会影响平台，但 Sirius XM 正在探索新的内容策略，以吸引年轻观众。投资者可能会发现该股票具有价值，目前的估值较低，且股息收益率不错</p>

<p>The inevitable appears to be happening. Howard Stern -- the controversial and iconic morning show host that put <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) on the map two decades ago -- could be moving on from satellite radio. Sources told <em>The Sun</em> last week that Sirius XM would be canceling the show after its fourth five-year contract concludes at the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可避免的事情似乎正在发生。霍华德·斯特恩——这位有争议且标志性的早间节目主持人，二十年前让 <strong>Sirius XM Holdings</strong>(SIRI 0.17%) 声名鹊起——可能将告别卫星广播。消息人士上周告诉《太阳报》，Sirius XM 将在其第四个五年合同结束后取消该节目。</p>
</div><p>A lot of stories since last week's revelation have been playing this up as the &#34;firing&#34; of the radio legend that you either love or hate. It's not technically true. <em>The Sun</em>'s source is saying that Sirius XM will make an offer, but that it will be well below the annual nine figures that Stern's camp has received in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上周的消息披露以来，很多报道将其渲染为这位广播传奇的 “解雇”，你要么爱他要么恨他。但这并不完全正确。《太阳报》的消息来源表示，Sirius XM 将提出一个报价，但远低于斯特恩团队过去所获得的年收入九位数。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Sirius and Stern are never going to meet on the money he is going to want,&#34; the unnamed source says. &#34;It's no longer worth the investment.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“Sirius 和斯特恩在他想要的金额上永远不会达成一致，” 这位匿名消息人士表示。“这笔投资不再值得。”</p>
</div><p>This is also the big question for the market: Is Sirius XM itself no longer worth the investment? The stock has fallen both in price and in favor. Let's take a closer look at where the meandering media monopoly goes from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是市场面临的重大问题：Sirius XM 本身是否不再值得投资？该公司的股票价格和受欢迎程度都在下降。让我们仔细看看这个游走的媒体垄断接下来会走向何方。</p>
</div><h2>Two decades of decadence</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>二十年的奢华衰退</h2>
</div><p>Disruptors get disrupted. Sirius XM was a media stock darling for growth investors more than a decade ago, but these days it's attracting value investors with its low valuation and chunky payouts. Organic revenue growth hasn't shifted out of a single-digit gear since 2014, and this will be the third consecutive year of negative top-line growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>颠覆者终将被颠覆。十多年前，Sirius XM 是成长型投资者心目中的媒体股票宠儿，但如今它吸引的是因其低估值和丰厚分红而来的价值投资者。自 2014 年以来，公司的有机收入增长一直停留在个位数，这将是连续第三年出现负增长。</p>
</div><p>Stern's migration from terrestrial radio to Sirius in 2006 was huge for the nascent platform. Sirius had just 3.3 million subscribers. Larger rival XM was beaming audio content to its 6 million accounts. Stern's arrival leveled the playing field between the two players, and a couple of years later it was Sirius in the driver's seat, executing a merger of equals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特恩在 2006 年从地面广播转向 Sirius，对这个新兴平台来说是个巨大的转折。Sirius 当时只有 330 万订阅用户，而更大的竞争对手 XM 则向其 600 万账户传输音频内容。斯特恩的到来使两者之间的竞争格局发生了变化，几年后，Sirius 在合并中占据了主导地位。</p>
</div><p>This was before the smartphone and connected car gave nearly everyone behind the wheel access to a world of apps that could play seamlessly through their car stereos. However, even with its audience contracting, Sirius XM entertains more than triple the listeners that the two players combined were reaching before Stern made his move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这发生在智能手机和联网汽车尚未普及之前，那时几乎每个驾驶者都能通过汽车音响无缝访问各种应用。然而，即使在观众数量收缩的情况下，Sirius XM 的听众人数仍是斯特恩转型前两家公司的总和的三倍多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5NDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE1Njg1NjY3MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828941%2Fgettyimages-1156856671.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Interrupting the fadeout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>打断渐隐的声音</h2>
</div><p>Sirius XM remains profitable. It's still cranking out 10-figure annual free cash flow. If this is the end of Stern on the platform -- and that was always a possibility, even if Sirius XM were willing to pay up for show -- it doesn't mean the end for satellite radio. The biggest problem at Sirius XM these days isn't keeping listeners around. The monthly churn rate of 1.5% continues to hover around the company's historical average. The real trick is finding new listeners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sirius XM 仍然盈利。它每年仍在产生十位数的自由现金流。如果这真的是斯特恩在该平台的终结——即使 Sirius XM 愿意为节目支付费用，这种可能性也一直存在——这并不意味着卫星广播的终结。如今，Sirius XM 面临的最大问题并不是留住听众。每月 1.5% 的流失率仍然徘徊在公司的历史平均水平附近。真正的挑战是寻找新听众。</p>
</div><p>The funnel of young drivers hopping on free trials of the service has been dry for years. The connected car is a factor, but so is a changing workplace that no longer revolves around long commutes in a world of working from home. And the current appeal of Stern to new listeners is different from 20 years ago. It's not Stern's fault. Sirius XM is a walled garden: If you're not a subscriber, you don't have access. Stern has tried to make himself relevant outside his satellite radio fan base. He was a host on <em>America's Got Talent</em> for a couple of years. However, that's not the kind of gig that will motivate someone to sign up for a premium in-car and streaming service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年轻驾驶者体验免费试用服务的渠道已经干涸多年。联网汽车是一个因素，但工作场所的变化也很重要，长时间通勤的情况在居家办公的世界中不再普遍。而斯特恩对新听众的吸引力与 20 年前相比也有所不同。这并不是斯特恩的错。Sirius XM 是一个封闭的花园：如果你不是订阅者，就无法访问。斯特恩试图让自己在卫星广播粉丝群体之外变得相关。他曾在《美国达人秀》中担任主持人几年。然而，这并不是能激励人们注册高端车载和流媒体服务的工作。</p>
</div><p>Another revolution that has grabbed the ears of listeners over the past 20 years is podcasting. Even if you're in your car, you're going to spend less time listening to radio because now you can stream your favorite podcast if you're not in the mood for a music streaming app. Sirius XM has been making moves on that front, lining up popular podcasters including Alex Cooper, Rotten, and Smartless. This wasn't much of an initiative the last time Stern renewed with Sirius XM, but it is a priority now -- especially with the need for the platform to skew younger if it wants a shot at returning to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去 20 年，播客的兴起吸引了听众的耳朵。即使你在车里，你也会花更少的时间听广播，因为如果你不想听音乐流媒体应用，你现在可以流式播放你最喜欢的播客。Sirius XM 在这方面也在积极布局，签约了包括亚历克斯·库珀、Rotten 和 Smartless 等受欢迎的播客。这在斯特恩上次与 Sirius XM 续约时并不是一个重要的举措，但现在却成为了优先事项——尤其是如果该平台想要重返增长，就需要吸引年轻用户。</p>
</div><p>Stern will be fine. Sirius XM will be fine. Investors -- while they wait out the process -- will be fine. The stock is now trading for less than 7 times next year's projected earnings with a 5.1% dividend yield. Stern isn't likely to come back to Sirius XM on the cheap, but investors can do so right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯特恩会没事的。Sirius XM 也会没事的。投资者——在等待过程中——也会没事的。该股票目前的交易价格不到明年预期收益的 7 倍，且有 5.1% 的股息收益率。斯特恩不太可能以低价回归 Sirius XM，但投资者现在可以这样做。</p>
</div>

天狼星 XM 广播是否能在没有霍华德·斯特恩的情况下继续运营？