<p>根据 Etf.com 的数据，截至 8 月 8 日的一周内，美国上市的 ETF 吸引了近 190 亿美元，固定收益策略明显领先投资者配置。</p>
<p>债券 ETF 吸引了 153 亿美元，约为 22 亿美元投资于股票的七倍。这一模式反映出市场情绪对美联储降息的强烈防御性需求。</p>
<p><em>SGOV ETF 正在经历显著的资金流入。实时跟踪其价格。</em></p>
<h2><strong>降息押注成为焦点</strong></h2>
<p>这一举动源于对美联储将在 9 月开始放松货币政策的日益信心。来自 CME FedWatch 工具的信息显示，期货市场现在认为降息 25 个基点的概率超过 94%。投资者被视为提前布局，固定收益工具，特别是短期国债，因低利率情景而受益匪浅。</p>
<p>在这一周内，债券收益率大多保持不变，10 年期国债收益率维持在中 3% 的水平，短期收益率则高企但稳定。政策利率的下调往往会缩小短期和长期收益率之间的利差，有利于国债及相应的 ETF 持有者。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：美联储降息呼声愈发高涨：这会是成长型 ETF 的突破时刻吗？</strong></p>
<h2><strong>短期国债需求旺盛</strong></h2>
<p>固定收益流入最多的是 <strong>iShares 0–3 个月国债 ETF</strong> SGOV，吸引了 23 亿美元，其次是 <strong>SPDR Bloomberg 1–3 个月国库券 ETF</strong> BIL，吸引了 16 亿美元。这两只基金受到希望获得流动性和稳定性而不承担极端利率风险的投资者的欢迎。这些产品常被用作现金管理工具，其收益率仍能捕捉到美联储的高政策利率，但避免了与长期到期相关的价格波动。</p>
<p>其他值得注意的固定收益赢家包括 <strong>iShares 20 年以上国债 ETF</strong> TLT，尽管最近波动较大，但仍不断吸引希望在美联储转向后资本收益下降时获利的投资者。</p>
<h2><strong>选择性股票购买</strong></h2>
<p>尽管大部分资金流入债券，但一些股票 ETF 仍然受到关注。<strong>通信服务选择性行业 SPDR 基金</strong> XLC 以 38 亿美元的新资金领先所有股票产品。该行业的强劲表现得益于 <strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> META 和 <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGL 的持续强劲表现，这两家公司都享受到了强劲的广告收入和由人工智能推动的增长故事。</p>
<p><strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO 紧随其后，吸引了 33 亿美元的资金流入，表明投资者仍然愿意将资金投入广泛的股票投资，即使在整体配置上转向防御性。标准普尔 500 指数在本周接近历史高点，但未能突破。</p>
<p>相反，一些知名的股票 ETF 遭遇了赎回，尤其是在小型股和新兴市场领域，这些领域更容易受到全球增长和利率政策变化的担忧影响。</p>
<h2><strong>宏观背景强化防御性倾向</strong></h2>
<p>上周资金流向债券而非股票，显示出市场的谨慎情绪。尽管主要指数在历史高位交易，但地缘政治紧张局势、经济数据不均衡以及通胀的不确定轨迹仍然影响着前景。</p>
<p>9 月降息将标志着美联储紧缩政策的转变，而该政策已实施超过两年。虽然低成本借贷可能为风险资产提供助力，但这一举动也表明中央银行认为有必要支持经济增长，可能是对劳动力市场疲软或其他经济挑战的回应。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，短期国债和其他低期限固定收益策略被视为在今天获得有利收益的手段，同时在市场条件变化时仍具有投资组合再平衡的灵活性。</p>
<p>如果美联储如大多数人预期的那样降息，固定收益 ETF，特别是那些长期的，可能会因价格上涨而获利，而股票可能会因折现率下降而获得新的支持。如果中央银行决定维持现状，交易可能会迅速逆转，强调当前布局的事件驱动特性。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>更便宜的汽油，更贵的航班：航空股因 7 月通胀报告而上涨</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

主动管理债券 ETF - PIMCO

<p>截至 8 月 8 日的一周，美国上市的 ETF 吸引了近 190 亿美元的资金流入，其中债券 ETF 吸引了 153 亿美元，显著超过了 22 亿美元的股票 ETF。这一趋势反映出一种防御性投资策略，因为市场对美联储降息的预期不断增加，期货显示出超过 94% 的概率将进行 25 个基点的降息。短期国债 ETF 的资金流入最多，而一些股票基金，特别是在通信服务行业，也引起了关注。总体来看，市场在地缘政治紧张局势和经济不确定性中表现出谨慎态度</p>

<p>U.S.-listed ETFs attracted nearly $19 billion during the week ended Aug. 8, with fixed income approaches decisively leading investor allocations, according to data from Etf.com.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Etf.com 的数据，截至 8 月 8 日的一周内，美国上市的 ETF 吸引了近 190 亿美元，固定收益策略明显领先投资者配置。</p>
</div><p>Bond ETFs lured $15.3 billion, which was approximately seven times more than the $2.2 billion invested in equities. This pattern mirrored an unmistakable desire for defensive positioning as market sentiment for Federal Reserve rate cutting intensifies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券 ETF 吸引了 153 亿美元，约为 22 亿美元投资于股票的七倍。这一模式反映出市场情绪对美联储降息的强烈防御性需求。</p>
</div><p><em>SGOV ETF is seeing remarkable inflows. Track its prices live.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>SGOV ETF 正在经历显著的资金流入。实时跟踪其价格。</em></p>
</div><h2><strong>Rate Cut Bets Take Center Stage</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>降息押注成为焦点</strong></h2>
</div><p>The move follows growing belief that the Fed will start to ease monetary policy as early as September. Information from the CME FedWatch tool indicates futures markets now giving over a 94% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Investors are seen front-running that choice, with fixed income instruments, particularly short-term Treasury exposure, hugely benefiting from a lower-rate scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动源于对美联储将在 9 月开始放松货币政策的日益信心。来自 CME FedWatch 工具的信息显示，期货市场现在认为降息 25 个基点的概率超过 94%。投资者被视为提前布局，固定收益工具，特别是短期国债，因低利率情景而受益匪浅。</p>
</div><p>Bond yields were mostly unchanged during the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting in the mid-3% area and short-term yields elevated but stable. A policy rate cut would tend to close the spread between short- and long-term yields to the advantage of Treasuries and corresponding ETF holders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一周内，债券收益率大多保持不变，10 年期国债收益率维持在中 3% 的水平，短期收益率则高企但稳定。政策利率的下调往往会缩小短期和长期收益率之间的利差，有利于国债及相应的 ETF 持有者。</p>
</div><p><strong>Also Read: Fed Rate-Cut Chorus Grows Louder: Could This Be A Breakout Moment For Growth ETFs?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：美联储降息呼声愈发高涨：这会是成长型 ETF 的突破时刻吗？</strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Short-Duration Treasuries in Demand</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>短期国债需求旺盛</strong></h2>
</div><p>Top fixed income inflows were the <strong>iShares 0–3 Month Treasury Bond ETF</strong> SGOV, with $2.3 billion, and the <strong>SPDR Bloomberg 1–3 Month T-Bill ETF</strong> BIL, with $1.6 billion. Both of these funds are popular with investors that want liquidity and stability without extreme interest rate risk. These products are frequently being employed as cash management tools, with yields that still capture the Fed’s high policy rate but circumvent price volatility associated with longer-term maturities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>固定收益流入最多的是 <strong>iShares 0–3 个月国债 ETF</strong> SGOV，吸引了 23 亿美元，其次是 <strong>SPDR Bloomberg 1–3 个月国库券 ETF</strong> BIL，吸引了 16 亿美元。这两只基金受到希望获得流动性和稳定性而不承担极端利率风险的投资者的欢迎。这些产品常被用作现金管理工具，其收益率仍能捕捉到美联储的高政策利率，但避免了与长期到期相关的价格波动。</p>
</div><p>Other fixed income winners of note were the <strong>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</strong> TLT, which has been all over the map lately but keeps raking in money from investors hoping to capitalize on capital gains if long-term yields drop following a Fed turn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他值得注意的固定收益赢家包括 <strong>iShares 20 年以上国债 ETF</strong> TLT，尽管最近波动较大，但仍不断吸引希望在美联储转向后资本收益下降时获利的投资者。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Selective Equity Buying</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>选择性股票购买</strong></h2>
</div><p>Though most of the flows were directed into bonds, some equity ETFs continued to enjoy attention. The <strong>Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> XLC led all equity products with $3.8 billion in new money. Sector strength has been fueled by ongoing strength in heavyweight members <strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> META and <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGLGOOG, both of which have enjoyed strong advertising revenue and AI-fueled growth stories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管大部分资金流入债券，但一些股票 ETF 仍然受到关注。<strong>通信服务选择性行业 SPDR 基金</strong> XLC 以 38 亿美元的新资金领先所有股票产品。该行业的强劲表现得益于 <strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> META 和 <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGL 的持续强劲表现，这两家公司都享受到了强劲的广告收入和由人工智能推动的增长故事。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO was next with $3.3 billion of inflows, indicating that investors are still ready to put money into broad equity exposure even as they move into a defensive tilt on overall allocations. The S&amp;P 500 toyed with record highs for the week but was just short of breaking through.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO 紧随其后，吸引了 33 亿美元的资金流入，表明投资者仍然愿意将资金投入广泛的股票投资，即使在整体配置上转向防御性。标准普尔 500 指数在本周接近历史高点，但未能突破。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, some well-known equity ETFs suffered redemptions, especially in the small-cap and emerging markets space, which are more vulnerable to concerns about global growth and changes in interest rate policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，一些知名的股票 ETF 遭遇了赎回，尤其是在小型股和新兴市场领域，这些领域更容易受到全球增长和利率政策变化的担忧影响。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Macro Backdrop Reinforces Defensive Tilt</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>宏观背景强化防御性倾向</strong></h2>
</div><p>The bond preference over stock in last week’s flows is a sign of larger market caution. While major indexes trade at or near historic peaks, geopolitical tensions, uneven economic readings, and the uncertain trajectory of inflation still hang over the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周资金流向债券而非股票，显示出市场的谨慎情绪。尽管主要指数在历史高位交易，但地缘政治紧张局势、经济数据不均衡以及通胀的不确定轨迹仍然影响着前景。</p>
</div><p>A September rate cut would represent a shift away from the Fed’s tight policy, which has been in effect for over two years. While cheap borrowing may add a tailwind to risk assets, the action would also indicate that the central bank believes there is a necessity to prop up growth, perhaps as a response to a weakening labor market or other economic challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9 月降息将标志着美联储紧缩政策的转变，而该政策已实施超过两年。虽然低成本借贷可能为风险资产提供助力，但这一举动也表明中央银行认为有必要支持经济增长，可能是对劳动力市场疲软或其他经济挑战的回应。</p>
</div><p>In this context, short Treasuries and other low-duration fixed income strategies are seen as a means of getting favorable yields today while still having flexibility for portfolio rebalancing if market conditions change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，短期国债和其他低期限固定收益策略被视为在今天获得有利收益的手段，同时在市场条件变化时仍具有投资组合再平衡的灵活性。</p>
</div><p>If the Fed does cut as most anticipate, fixed-income ETFs, especially those with longer duration, might profit from price appreciation, and equities might experience renewed support from declining discount rates. If the central bank does decide to stand pat, the trade might reverse rather promptly, emphasizing the event-driven nature of the current positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储如大多数人预期的那样降息，固定收益 ETF，特别是那些长期的，可能会因价格上涨而获利，而股票可能会因折现率下降而获得新的支持。如果中央银行决定维持现状，交易可能会迅速逆转，强调当前布局的事件驱动特性。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Cheaper Gas, Pricier Flights: Airline Stocks Rally On July Inflation Report</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>更便宜的汽油，更贵的航班：航空股因 7 月通胀报告而上涨</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bond ETFs Outshine Equities In Weekly Flows As Rate Cut Bets Build

- 美国上市的 ETF 在截至 8 月 8 日的一周内吸引了近 190 亿美元资金。  
- 债券 ETF 吸引了 153 亿美元，显示出投资者对防御性配置的明显偏好。  
- 预计美联储将在 9 月开始降息，推动固定收益工具的需求上升。  

随着降息预期的增加，债券 ETF 在每周资金流动中表现优于股票