<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.54%）是全球市值最大的公司之一，今天的市值略超过 1 万亿美元。该公司是电动汽车、自动驾驶软件和可再生能源的先驱，并全力进军机器人出租车和类人机器人领域。</p>
<p>从表面上看，这家科技公司有很多值得称道的地方。但深入挖掘后，考虑到其过去的成功和巨大的估值，特斯拉作为投资的风险要大得多。</p>
<p>当然，特斯拉的上限很高，但它的下限也非常低。这就是为什么我预测 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOG 1.25%）（GOOGL 1.14%）和 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>（TM 2.56%）在三年后都将超过特斯拉的价值。</p>
<p>这并不是听起来那么不可思议。以下是你需要知道的内容。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>特斯拉 Optimus 机器人的手。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉雄心勃勃的计划可能需要时间，这可能会在短期内带来麻烦</h2>
<p>特斯拉的叙述正在从其传统电动汽车业务转向机器人出租车和类人机器人，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和越来越多的投资者预计这将推动公司的未来价值。</p>
<p>特斯拉的电动汽车销量已经开始下降，这可能至少部分是由于埃隆·马斯克有时颇具争议的政治化形象。问题在于，特斯拉刚刚开始推出其机器人出租车业务，该业务仅限于少量车辆，并采取了多项安全措施。特斯拉希望迅速扩大其车队，但由于地方和州级法规，这可能比大多数人想象的要花更长的时间。请记住，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术仍然仅获得了 2 级能力，这要求在车辆自主运行时必须有一名人类驾驶员在场。</p>
<p>Optimus，特斯拉的类人机器人，仍处于早期阶段。虽然公司计划今年生产 5000 个 Optimus 单元，但报告显示特斯拉在这方面进展缓慢。也许 Optimus 有一天会产生埃隆·马斯克所相信的数万亿美元的收入，但特斯拉以往设定的多个时间表都未能如承诺那样执行。</p>
<p>除非特斯拉能够在接下来的一年左右迅速提升机器人出租车和 Optimus 的进展，否则公司最近的销售困境可能会对股价产生重大影响：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，收入增长停止并转为负值。利润率大幅下降。如果投资者将特斯拉视为一个 “证明自己” 的故事，当前股价超过 12 倍收入的特斯拉，合理地可能会看到至少 50% 的下行空间，因为其估值将更接近于汽车制造商而非科技公司。</p>
<h2>投资者可能对丰田的重视不足</h2>
<p>以丰田为例，它是全球最有价值的传统汽车公司。其收入持续增长至新高，利润率远高于特斯拉，超过 3 个百分点。具有讽刺意味的是，丰田的市值仅为 2460 亿美元，股票的市销率（P/S）低于 1.0，远低于特斯拉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>公平地说，我认为特斯拉的股价估值不太可能降到丰田的水平。如果特斯拉如投资者所希望的那样在机器人出租车和 Optimus 上取得成功，潜在的上行空间太大——即使这需要比预期更长的时间。</p>
<p>但如果两者在某个中间点相遇，丰田可能会超过特斯拉的价值。根据各自的过去 12 个月收入，如果特斯拉的市销率降至约 3，丰田的估值将在市销率为 1 时超过特斯拉。这一比较更多是关于特斯拉的下行风险，而非丰田的上行潜力，但它突显了如果特斯拉未能实现一些非常雄心勃勃的目标，可能面临的风险。</p>
<h2>字母表是自动驾驶车辆的真正市场领导者</h2>
<p>可以安全地说，Waymo 目前是领先的自动驾驶叫车公司。这使得母公司字母表处于有利位置。</p>
<p>字母表的市值超过 2.3 万亿美元，已经超过特斯拉，但有些人可能认为这种情况不会持续。Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德认为，特斯拉的价值将在机器人出租车增长中飙升。但就我而言，我对如此短期的时间框架持怀疑态度，原因如上所述。此外，字母表在人工智能领域是一个核心参与者，拥有蓬勃发展的云计算业务和产生现金流的数字广告业务。</p>
<p>有些人可能不会将字母表与自动驾驶车辆联系在一起。然而，字母表无疑是追求该市场的完美公司，因为它拥有如此强大的现有业务，可以为开发自动驾驶车队的投资提供资金，并在美国各地扩展。Waymo 继续宣布新市场，直到特斯拉和机器人出租车缩小差距，很难不看好字母表的前景。</p>

丰田汽车

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>文章预测，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和丰田汽车将在三年内超过特斯拉的市值。特斯拉面临着其雄心勃勃的 Robotaxi 和人形机器人计划的挑战，这些计划的实现可能比预期的时间更长。与此同时，丰田的收入和利润率持续增长，而特斯拉的销售额却出现下滑。凭借其在自动驾驶技术领域的领先地位，Alphabet 通过 Waymo 也具备良好的增长潜力。分析强调了特斯拉的潜在风险以及其竞争对手的对比优势</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 0.54%) is one of the world's largest companies by market value, worth a little over $1 trillion today. The company is a pioneer in electric vehicles, autonomous driving software, and renewable energy, and is charging full steam into Robotaxis and humanoid robotics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.54%）是全球市值最大的公司之一，今天的市值略超过 1 万亿美元。该公司是电动汽车、自动驾驶软件和可再生能源的先驱，并全力进军机器人出租车和类人机器人领域。</p>
</div><p>At face value, there is a lot to like about this technology company. But when you dig deeper, Tesla is far riskier as an investment, given its past success and massive valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，这家科技公司有很多值得称道的地方。但深入挖掘后，考虑到其过去的成功和巨大的估值，特斯拉作为投资的风险要大得多。</p>
</div><p>Sure, Tesla has a high ceiling, but it also has a very low floor. That's why I predict that <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.25%)(GOOGL 1.14%) and <strong>Toyota Motor</strong>(TM 2.56%) will both be worth more than Tesla three years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，特斯拉的上限很高，但它的下限也非常低。这就是为什么我预测 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOG 1.25%）（GOOGL 1.14%）和 <strong>丰田汽车</strong>（TM 2.56%）在三年后都将超过特斯拉的价值。</p>
</div><p>It's not as far-fetched as it sounds. Here is what you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是听起来那么不可思议。以下是你需要知道的内容。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjgwMjQvdGVzbGEtYm90LWhhbmQtY2xvc2V1cC1hcnRpZmljaWFsLWludGVsbGlnZW5jZS1haS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828024%2Ftesla-bot-hand-closeup-artificial-intelligence-ai.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>The hand of a Tesla Optimus robot. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉 Optimus 机器人的手。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's ambitious plans will likely take time, and that could spell near-term trouble</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉雄心勃勃的计划可能需要时间，这可能会在短期内带来麻烦</h2>
</div><p>The narrative around Tesla is shifting from its legacy electric vehicle business to Robotaxi and humanoid robotics, which CEO Elon Musk and an increasing number of investors expect to carry the company's value moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的叙述正在从其传统电动汽车业务转向机器人出租车和类人机器人，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克和越来越多的投资者预计这将推动公司的未来价值。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's electric vehicle sales have started to decline, which could be at least partially due to Elon Musk's sometimes controversial, politicized persona. The issue here is that Tesla has only just begun launching its Robotaxi business, which is limited to a small number of vehicles with multiple safety measures in place. Tesla wants to expand its fleet rapidly, but that may take longer than most want to believe due to local and state-level regulations. Remember, Tesla's self-driving technology has still only obtained Level 2 capability, which mandates a human driver be present in the vehicle while it is autonomously operating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的电动汽车销量已经开始下降，这可能至少部分是由于埃隆·马斯克有时颇具争议的政治化形象。问题在于，特斯拉刚刚开始推出其机器人出租车业务，该业务仅限于少量车辆，并采取了多项安全措施。特斯拉希望迅速扩大其车队，但由于地方和州级法规，这可能比大多数人想象的要花更长的时间。请记住，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术仍然仅获得了 2 级能力，这要求在车辆自主运行时必须有一名人类驾驶员在场。</p>
</div><p>Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, is also still in early stages. While the company aims to build 5,000 Optimus units this year, reports indicate that Tesla is behind on that. Perhaps Optimus will someday generate the trillions of dollars in revenue Elon Musk believes it can, but Tesla has infamously established numerous timetables before that have failed to execute as promised.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Optimus，特斯拉的类人机器人，仍处于早期阶段。虽然公司计划今年生产 5000 个 Optimus 单元，但报告显示特斯拉在这方面进展缓慢。也许 Optimus 有一天会产生埃隆·马斯克所相信的数万亿美元的收入，但特斯拉以往设定的多个时间表都未能如承诺那样执行。</p>
</div><p>Unless Tesla can ramp Robotaxi and Optimus very quickly over the next year or so, the company's recent sales struggles could weigh significantly on the stock:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非特斯拉能够在接下来的一年左右迅速提升机器人出租车和 Optimus 的进展，否则公司最近的销售困境可能会对股价产生重大影响：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/29403eede5c2c9b1321b3fb17a543652.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Over the past few years, revenue growth ceased and then turned negative. Profit margins have cratered. If investors make Tesla a &#34;prove it&#34; story, the stock, trading at over 12 times revenue, could reasonably see at least 50% downside as its valuation shifts to more closely resemble that of an automotive manufacturer than a technology company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，收入增长停止并转为负值。利润率大幅下降。如果投资者将特斯拉视为一个 “证明自己” 的故事，当前股价超过 12 倍收入的特斯拉，合理地可能会看到至少 50% 的下行空间，因为其估值将更接近于汽车制造商而非科技公司。</p>
</div><h2>Investors may not appreciate Toyota enough</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者可能对丰田的重视不足</h2>
</div><p>Take Toyota, for example, which is the world's most valuable legacy automotive company. Its revenue continues to grow to new highs, and its profit margin is far higher, clearing Tesla by over 3 percentage points. Ironically, Toyota has a market cap of just $246 billion, valuing the stock at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of less than 1.0, and a fraction of Tesla's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以丰田为例，它是全球最有价值的传统汽车公司。其收入持续增长至新高，利润率远高于特斯拉，超过 3 个百分点。具有讽刺意味的是，丰田的市值仅为 2460 亿美元，股票的市销率（P/S）低于 1.0，远低于特斯拉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5a0ff9f0af5f842d8dd25b19e2df5086.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>To be fair to Tesla, I don't think it's likely that the stock's valuation drops all the way down to Toyota's level. The upside is too high if it delivers on Robotaxi and Optimus as investors hope -- even if it takes longer than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，我认为特斯拉的股价估值不太可能降到丰田的水平。如果特斯拉如投资者所希望的那样在机器人出租车和 Optimus 上取得成功，潜在的上行空间太大——即使这需要比预期更长的时间。</p>
</div><p>But Toyota could surpass Tesla's value if the two meet somewhere in the middle. Using each's trailing-12-month revenue, Toyota's valuation would overtake Tesla's at a P/S ratio of 1, if Tesla's fell to about 3. This comparison is more about Tesla's downside than Toyota's upside, but it highlights Tesla's potential risks if the company doesn't follow through on some very ambitious goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果两者在某个中间点相遇，丰田可能会超过特斯拉的价值。根据各自的过去 12 个月收入，如果特斯拉的市销率降至约 3，丰田的估值将在市销率为 1 时超过特斯拉。这一比较更多是关于特斯拉的下行风险，而非丰田的上行潜力，但它突显了如果特斯拉未能实现一些非常雄心勃勃的目标，可能面临的风险。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is the true market leader in self-driving vehicles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表是自动驾驶车辆的真正市场领导者</h2>
</div><p>It seems safe to say that Waymo is currently the leading autonomous ride-hailing company. That puts parent company Alphabet in the driver's seat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以安全地说，Waymo 目前是领先的自动驾驶叫车公司。这使得母公司字母表处于有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet, valued at over $2.3 trillion, is already worth more than Tesla, but some may not feel it will remain that way. Ark Invest's Cathie Wood believes that Tesla's value will skyrocket on Robotaxi growth. But I'm skeptical, at least of such a short time frame, for the reasons I walked through above. Additionally, Alphabet is a central player in artificial intelligence, with a blossoming cloud-computing business and digital advertising business that generates cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的市值超过 2.3 万亿美元，已经超过特斯拉，但有些人可能认为这种情况不会持续。Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德认为，特斯拉的价值将在机器人出租车增长中飙升。但就我而言，我对如此短期的时间框架持怀疑态度，原因如上所述。此外，字母表在人工智能领域是一个核心参与者，拥有蓬勃发展的云计算业务和产生现金流的数字广告业务。</p>
</div><p>Some might not associate Alphabet with self-driving vehicles. Yet Alphabet is arguably the perfect company to go after that market because it has such strong existing businesses that can fund the investments to develop a self-driving fleet and expand it across the United States. Waymo continues to announce new markets, and until Tesla and Robotaxi close the gap, it's hard not to like Alphabet's prospects better than Tesla's moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有些人可能不会将字母表与自动驾驶车辆联系在一起。然而，字母表无疑是追求该市场的完美公司，因为它拥有如此强大的现有业务，可以为开发自动驾驶车队的投资提供资金，并在美国各地扩展。Waymo 继续宣布新市场，直到特斯拉和机器人出租车缩小差距，很难不看好字母表的前景。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Tesla 3 Years From Now

- 特斯拉市值超过 1 万亿美元，正全力进军 Robotaxi 和人形机器人领域。  
- 但其电动车销售下滑，且自驾技术仍处于初级阶段，面临投资风险。  
- 预计三年后，Alphabet 和丰田的市值将超过特斯拉。

预测：三年后价值将超过特斯拉的两只股票