<p>在过去近 30 年的大部分时间里，投资者都有一项颠覆性的技术或下一个大趋势来吸引他们的注意力和钱包。这些被炒作的进步包括互联网、基因解码、区块链技术和元宇宙。但自互联网普及以来，投资者对人工智能（AI）崛起的热情程度前所未有。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师将人工智能的可寻址机会，包括生产力提升和消费侧效应，估计到 2030 年全球将达到 15.7 万亿美元。正是这样的庞大数字推动了华尔街对 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.40%）的近乎抛物线式的攀升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>截至 8 月 10 日，Palantir 已跃升为美国第 19 大上市公司，市值超过 4430 亿美元。为了将其自 2023 年初以来超过 2800% 的涨幅放入背景中，它现在的市值已超过：</p>
<ul>
<li>医疗保健巨头 <strong>强生公司</strong>，在 COVID-19 大流行之前连续 35 年实现调整后的营业收入增长。</li>
<li>仓储俱乐部 <strong>好市多</strong>，在过去 20 年中仅有几年的下滑。</li>
<li>家居改善连锁店 <strong>家得宝</strong>，在新房建设、翻新和维修中扮演着核心角色。</li>
</ul>
<p>再上涨 2%，Palantir 将超越 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong>，成为美国最大的上市能源公司。</p>
<p>说 Palantir 的上涨令人印象深刻，实在是低估了它在如此短的时间内所取得的成就。但这也突显了 Palantir 的上升可能是多么危险。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的崛起源于其不可替代性</h2>
<p>Palantir Technologies 在两年内从一只普通科技股转变为该行业最重要的企业之一，并非偶然。这反映了其带来了明确且可持续的竞争优势。</p>
<p>Palantir 的主要运营部门是 Gotham。这个基于人工智能和机器学习（ML）的软件即服务（SaaS）平台被联邦政府用于收集和分析数据，以及规划和监督军事任务。通常，Gotham 会从美国政府获得多年合同，这为其每年的运营现金流提供了高度可预测性。</p>
<p>Palantir 的另一个核心运营部门是 Foundry。这个受人工智能和机器学习启发的 SaaS 平台帮助企业理解其数据，以便简化/自动化其运营。与 Gotham 相比，这是一个较新的部门，因此能够提供更高的增长率。</p>
<p>Gotham 和 Foundry 都没有大型竞争对手在争夺客户。被认为不可替代的企业通常在华尔街享有健康的溢价。</p>
<p>Palantir 还通过在共识预期之前实现持续盈利来帮助自己。亚历克斯·卡普的公司始终超越了即使是最乐观的增长和盈利预测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>预测：这座纸牌屋崩溃只是时间问题</h2>
<p>虽然毫无疑问，考虑到其可持续的竞争优势，Palantir 值得一个溢价估值，但这个溢价的理性上限是存在的。直言不讳地说，Palantir 具备了纸牌屋的所有特征，最终将会崩溃。</p>
<p>请不要误解我的论点：我并不是试图准确预测 Palantir 股票的顶部。如果华尔街在过去 27 年中教会我任何事情，那就是股票可以在非理性状态下维持的时间比空头卖空者能保持的时间要长。但在某个时刻，我认为不久的将来，这种近乎抛物线的上升将以不光彩的方式结束。</p>
<p>首先，Palantir 必须克服宏观压力。例如，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.32%）的 Shiller 市盈率最近达到了 154 年来的第三高水平。历史告诉我们，当股票估值如此高时，华尔街的主要指数必然会经历熊市下跌。如果历史重演，华尔街的一些最大赢家（咳，Palantir）在市场普遍下跌时可能会受到最严重的打击。</p>
<p>在这方面，过去三十多年没有任何颠覆性的技术进步或创新能够避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
<p>包括互联网在内，每一个被炒作的趋势最终都会衰退，投资者始终高估颠覆性技术的效用或采用率。尽管企业在人工智能基础设施上花费巨额资金，但早期回报表明，大多数企业尚未优化其人工智能解决方案或产生正回报。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，Palantir 将成为众矢之的。</p>
<p>但我们不妨直言不讳：Palantir 的估值完全无法辩解。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
<p>在标准普尔 500 指数和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在互联网泡沫破裂期间分别损失 49% 和 78% 的价值之前，华尔街的领先企业的市销率（P/S）比率达到了 31 到 43 的峰值。也许并非巧合，人工智能巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 在去年夏天的市销率达到了 42。关键在于，30 到 40 的市销率在历史上一直是大型公司的上限。</p>
<p>截至 8 月 8 日收盘，Palantir 的市销率为 137！这不是因为打错字而变成的 37。这是第 19 大国内上市公司的过去 12 个月销售额的 137 倍。在历史上，没有任何一家大型公司能够接近证明或维持如此高的溢价估值。</p>
<p>即使 Palantir 的股票在接下来的四年里横盘整理，它的估值仍然是预测每股收益的 116 倍，交易价格为预测销售额的 38 倍，这再次与之前泡沫破裂时的情况相符。</p>
<p>一个无法忽视的最终担忧是，关于 2028 年之后 Gotham 的国防支出缺乏明确性。虽然特朗普总统的政府将国防支出和内部人工智能创新作为优先事项，但中期选举和特朗普在 2029 年 1 月离开白宫可能会改变一切。</p>
<p>Palantir 的定价确实是为了完美。不幸的是，没有任何情况是完美的。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies 已成为美国第 19 大上市公司，市值超过 4430 亿美元，这得益于其人工智能和机器学习平台 Gotham 和 Foundry。尽管增长令人瞩目，分析师警告称 Palantir 的估值可能不可持续，将其比作一座在宏观经济压力和潜在市场下滑下可能崩溃的 “纸牌屋”。该公司面临着与过去科技泡沫类似的风险，因为许多企业在优化其人工智能投资方面遇到困难，这引发了人们对 Palantir 成功持久性的担忧</p>

<p>For the better part of the past 30 years, investors have had a game-changing technology or next-big-thing trend to captivate their attention and wallets. Some of these hyped advancements include the internet, genome decoding, blockchain technology, and the metaverse. But not since the proliferation of the internet have investors demonstrated the level of enthusiasm they have for the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去近 30 年的大部分时间里，投资者都有一项颠覆性的技术或下一个大趋势来吸引他们的注意力和钱包。这些被炒作的进步包括互联网、基因解码、区块链技术和元宇宙。但自互联网普及以来，投资者对人工智能（AI）崛起的热情程度前所未有。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC pegged the addressable opportunity for AI, inclusive of productivity improvements and consumption-side effects, at $15.7 trillion globally by 2030. It's mammoth figures like this that have fueled a near-parabolic climb in Wall Street's AI darling, <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.40%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师将人工智能的可寻址机会，包括生产力提升和消费侧效应，估计到 2030 年全球将达到 15.7 万亿美元。正是这样的庞大数字推动了华尔街对 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.40%）的近乎抛物线式的攀升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828800%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing on Aug. 10, Palantir has ascended the ladder to become the 19th largest publicly traded company in the U.S., with a market cap topping $443 billion. To put its more than 2,800% gain since the start of 2023 into context, it's now larger than:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 10 日，Palantir 已跃升为美国第 19 大上市公司，市值超过 4430 亿美元。为了将其自 2023 年初以来超过 2800% 的涨幅放入背景中，它现在的市值已超过：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Healthcare conglomerate <strong>Johnson &amp; Johnson</strong>, which had delivered adjusted operating earnings growth for 35 consecutive years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.</li>
<li>Warehouse club <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>, which has had just a couple of down years over the last two decades.</li>
<li>Home improvement chain <strong>Home Depot</strong>, which is a core player in new home construction, remodeling, and repairs.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>医疗保健巨头 <strong>强生公司</strong>，在 COVID-19 大流行之前连续 35 年实现调整后的营业收入增长。</li>
<li>仓储俱乐部 <strong>好市多</strong>，在过去 20 年中仅有几年的下滑。</li>
<li>家居改善连锁店 <strong>家得宝</strong>，在新房建设、翻新和维修中扮演着核心角色。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Another 2% upside and Palantir will eclipse <strong>ExxonMobil</strong>, which is the largest publicly traded energy company in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再上涨 2%，Palantir 将超越 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong>，成为美国最大的上市能源公司。</p>
</div><p>To say that Palantir's rally has been impressive would understate just how far it's come in such a short period. But it also highlights how perilous Palantir's ascent just might be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说 Palantir 的上涨令人印象深刻，实在是低估了它在如此短的时间内所取得的成就。但这也突显了 Palantir 的上升可能是多么危险。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's ascent has been driven by its irreplaceability</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的崛起源于其不可替代性</h2>
</div><p>Palantir Technologies transitioning from just another tech stock to one of the sector's most important businesses in two years wasn't an accident. It's a reflection of bringing well-defined and sustainable competitive advantages to the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir Technologies 在两年内从一只普通科技股转变为该行业最重要的企业之一，并非偶然。这反映了其带来了明确且可持续的竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's premier operating segment is Gotham. This AI- and machine learning (ML)-powered software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform is used by federal governments to collect and analyze data, as well as plan and oversee military missions. Typically, Gotham secures multiyear contracts from the U.S. government, which provides highly predictable operating cash flow year after year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的主要运营部门是 Gotham。这个基于人工智能和机器学习（ML）的软件即服务（SaaS）平台被联邦政府用于收集和分析数据，以及规划和监督军事任务。通常，Gotham 会从美国政府获得多年合同，这为其每年的运营现金流提供了高度可预测性。</p>
</div><p>The other core operating segment for Palantir is Foundry. This AI- and ML-inspired SaaS platform helps businesses make sense of their data in order to streamline/automate their operations. This is a newer segment, relative to Gotham, and is therefore capable of delivering a juicier growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的另一个核心运营部门是 Foundry。这个受人工智能和机器学习启发的 SaaS 平台帮助企业理解其数据，以便简化/自动化其运营。与 Gotham 相比，这是一个较新的部门，因此能够提供更高的增长率。</p>
</div><p>Neither Gotham nor Foundry has large-scale competitors angling for their clients. Businesses that are deemed irreplaceable are usually bestowed with a healthy premium on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gotham 和 Foundry 都没有大型竞争对手在争夺客户。被认为不可替代的企业通常在华尔街享有健康的溢价。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has also helped its cause by becoming profitable on a recurring basis well ahead of consensus expectations. Alex Karp's company has consistently blown past even the loftiest growth and profit projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 还通过在共识预期之前实现持续盈利来帮助自己。亚历克斯·卡普的公司始终超越了即使是最乐观的增长和盈利预测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg4MDAvamVuZ2EtdG93ZXItd29vZC1yaXNrLW1vcnRnYWdlLXN0b2NrLWVjb25vbXktY3Jpc2lzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828800%2Fjenga-tower-wood-risk-mortgage-stock-economy-crisis-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Prediction: It's not a matter of if but when this house of cards comes crashing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测：这座纸牌屋崩溃只是时间问题</h2>
</div><p>While there's no denying Palantir is worthy of a premium valuation given its sustainable competitive edges, there's a rational limit to what this premium entails. Put bluntly, Palantir has all the hallmarks of a house of cards that will, eventually, collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然毫无疑问，考虑到其可持续的竞争优势，Palantir 值得一个溢价估值，但这个溢价的理性上限是存在的。直言不讳地说，Palantir 具备了纸牌屋的所有特征，最终将会崩溃。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake about the following argument: I'm not attempting to precisely call a top in Palantir stock. If Wall Street has taught me anything about investing over the past 27 years, it's that stocks can stay irrational longer than short-sellers can remain solvent. But at some point, in what I'd presume is the not-too-distant future, this near-parabolic ascent will end in an unceremonious fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请不要误解我的论点：我并不是试图准确预测 Palantir 股票的顶部。如果华尔街在过去 27 年中教会我任何事情，那就是股票可以在非理性状态下维持的时间比空头卖空者能保持的时间要长。但在某个时刻，我认为不久的将来，这种近乎抛物线的上升将以不光彩的方式结束。</p>
</div><p>First, Palantir will have to overcome macro pressures. For instance, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (^GSPC 0.32%) Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio recently hit its third priciest multiple when backtested 154 years. History tells us that when stock valuations become this extended, it's simply a matter of time before Wall Street's major indexes endure a bear market decline. If history were to follow suit, some of Wall Street's biggest winners (ahem, Palantir) would likely be hit hardest during a marketwide downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Palantir 必须克服宏观压力。例如，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.32%）的 Shiller 市盈率最近达到了 154 年来的第三高水平。历史告诉我们，当股票估值如此高时，华尔街的主要指数必然会经历熊市下跌。如果历史重演，华尔街的一些最大赢家（咳，Palantir）在市场普遍下跌时可能会受到最严重的打击。</p>
</div><p>Along these same lines, there hasn't been a game-changing technological advance or innovation that's avoided a bubble-bursting event in more than three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这方面，过去三十多年没有任何颠覆性的技术进步或创新能够避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
</div><p>Including the internet, every hyped trend has eventually fallen off, with investors consistently overestimating the utility or adoption rates of game-changing technologies. Even though businesses are spending big bucks on AI infrastructure, early returns suggest most have yet to optimize their AI solutions or generate a positive return on their investments. If the AI bubble bursts, Palantir would have a bullseye on its proverbial back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括互联网在内，每一个被炒作的趋势最终都会衰退，投资者始终高估颠覆性技术的效用或采用率。尽管企业在人工智能基础设施上花费巨额资金，但早期回报表明，大多数企业尚未优化其人工智能解决方案或产生正回报。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，Palantir 将成为众矢之的。</p>
</div><p>But let's not beat around the bush: Palantir's valuation is completely unjustifiable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我们不妨直言不讳：Palantir 的估值完全无法辩解。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/462db4db3c348456becd1514f693f901.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来自 YCharts。PS 比率=市销率。</p>
</div><p>Before the S&amp;P 500 and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> lost 49% and 78% of their respective value during the bursting of the dot-com bubble, Wall Street's leading businesses peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 31 to 43. Perhaps not coincidentally, AI powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong> topped out at a P/S ratio of 42 last summer. The point being that P/S ratios of 30 to 40 have historically served as ceilings for megacap companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在标准普尔 500 指数和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 在互联网泡沫破裂期间分别损失 49% 和 78% 的价值之前，华尔街的领先企业的市销率（P/S）比率达到了 31 到 43 的峰值。也许并非巧合，人工智能巨头 <strong>英伟达</strong> 在去年夏天的市销率达到了 42。关键在于，30 到 40 的市销率在历史上一直是大型公司的上限。</p>
</div><p>As of the closing bell on Aug. 8, Palantir's P/S ratio was 137! That's not 37 with an accidental typo. That's 137 times trailing-12-month sales for the 19th-largest domestic public company. There isn't a megacap company that's come even remotely close to justifying or sustaining such a premium valuation throughout history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 8 日收盘，Palantir 的市销率为 137！这不是因为打错字而变成的 37。这是第 19 大国内上市公司的过去 12 个月销售额的 137 倍。在历史上，没有任何一家大型公司能够接近证明或维持如此高的溢价估值。</p>
</div><p>Even if Palantir's stock went sideway for the next four years, it would be still be valued at 116 times forecast earnings per share and trade at 38 times projected sales, which again is right in line with where previous bubbles popped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Palantir 的股票在接下来的四年里横盘整理，它的估值仍然是预测每股收益的 116 倍，交易价格为预测销售额的 38 倍，这再次与之前泡沫破裂时的情况相符。</p>
</div><p>A final concern that can't be swept under the rug is the lack of clarity on defense spending for Gotham beyond 2028. While President Trump's administration has made defense spending and internal AI innovation a priority, midterm elections and Trump's departure from the White House in January 2029 can change everything.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个无法忽视的最终担忧是，关于 2028 年之后 Gotham 的国防支出缺乏明确性。虽然特朗普总统的政府将国防支出和内部人工智能创新作为优先事项，但中期选举和特朗普在 2029 年 1 月离开白宫可能会改变一切。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is truly priced for perfection. Unfortunately, no situation is ever perfect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的定价确实是为了完美。不幸的是，没有任何情况是完美的。</p>
</div>

Palantir Is Now the 19th Largest Public Company. Is This House of Cards About to Come Crashing Down?

- Palantir Technologies 市值已达 4430 亿美元，成为美国第 19 大上市公司。  
- 其 P/S 比率高达 137，远超历史上其他巨头的 30-40。  
- AI 泡沫破裂风险加大，Palantir 可能面临重大下行压力。

Palantir 现在已成为第 19 大上市公司。这座纸牌屋是否即将倒塌？