<p>大约 30 年前，互联网的出现和普及开始积极改变美国企业的增长轨迹。互联网为企业提供了与潜在和现有客户互动的新方式，以及市场营销其产品的新途径。几十年来，投资者一直在等待下一个技术飞跃，而人工智能（AI）革命似乎就是这个飞跃。</p>
<p>根据普华永道（PwC）分析师的预测，随着人工智能的崛起，生产力和消费侧效应的结合预计将在 2030 年前使全球国内生产总值增加 15700 亿美元。这一庞大的可寻址市场是我们目睹华尔街的人工智能宠儿——<strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 0.28%）、<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.78%）和 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）（AMD -1.81%）自 2023 年开始飙升的主要原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>英伟达的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）占据了在 AI 加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的大部分。同时，超微半导体的 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的生产正在扩大，预计将为企业数据中心的 AI-GPU 市场占据一席之地。</p>
<p>至于 Palantir，其基于 AI 和机器学习的软件即服务平台 Gotham 和 Foundry 提供了可持续的护城河。联邦政府依赖 Gotham 进行军事任务规划和执行，以及数据收集和分析。同时，Foundry 是一个基于订阅的企业平台，旨在帮助企业理解其大数据并简化/自动化其运营。</p>
<p>尽管它们各自的股价上涨表明英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体一切顺利，但这三家公司共同向华尔街发出了近 130 亿美元的警告。真正的问题是：你或其他投资者是否在关注这个警告？</p>
<h2>英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体共同发出近 130 亿美元的警告</h2>
<p>在未来几个季度和几年中，AI 股票可能面临多种潜在的逆风，其中一些我稍后会提到。然而，更为显著的担忧之一与公司内部人士如何看待其公司股票有关。</p>
<p>好消息是：由于需要向证券交易委员会提交的 4 号表格，投资者可以追踪高管和董事会成员的买卖活动。这些活动详细记录了普通股的买卖以及期权活动。</p>
<p>就英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体而言，在过去五年中有一个非常明显的趋势（注意：Palantir 的首次公开募股是在 2020 年 9 月 30 日）：内部人士的卖出。</p>
<p>在过去五年中，净卖出活动总计：</p>
<ul>
<li>英伟达超过 47.1 亿美元。</li>
<li>Palantir 超过 74.3 亿美元。</li>
<li>超微半导体约 7.62 亿美元。</li>
</ul>
<p>在过去的五年中，这三家具有高度影响力的 AI 企业的内部人士共售出了超过 129 亿美元的普通股。</p>
<p>然而，内部人士的卖出并不像表面上看起来那么简单。这就是说，内部人士可能会出于多种原因出售其公司的股票，而这些原因并不全是恶意的。</p>
<p>例如，大多数高管会获得基于股票的薪酬和/或期权。期权必须在特定时间内行使，否则将失效。由于一些高管的薪酬大部分以股票或期权形式支付，他们必须出售公司股票以支付联邦和/或州税。关键点是，并非所有的内部人士卖出都是坏事。</p>
<p>但与此同时，高管和董事会成员购买公司股票的唯一原因是：他们预计股票会升值。在过去五年中，高管和董事会成员在英伟达只进行了一次购买，在 Palantir 进行了一次购买，在超微半导体进行了两次购买。</p>
<p>这里的结论很简单：如果英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体的内部人士不愿意购买自己公司的股票，为什么普通投资者应该相信这三只股票仍然有显著的上涨空间？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>内部活动并不是唯一的担忧</h2>
<p>不幸的是，这近 130 亿美元的警告并不是投资者唯一的担忧。历史先例是一个多方面的逆风，可能会显著拖累 AI 股票的估值。</p>
<p>在讨论以下内容之前，历史并不总是保证在华尔街重演。如果有某种指标可以明确保证股票的短期方向性变动，你可以放心，大家现在都会在使用它。</p>
<p>尽管如此，确实存在与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和华尔街其他主要指数的方向性变动完美相关的历史事件和指标。正是这些相关性表明英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体可能面临麻烦。</p>
<p>例如，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一次改变游戏规则的创新都经历过一次泡沫破裂事件，通常发生在其扩张的早期。这一系列备受关注的创新经历泡沫的过程表明，投资者一贯高估新技术的实用性和早期采用情况。</p>
<p>尽管对人工智能基础设施的支出一直很强劲，正如英伟达和 AMD 的运营结果所示，但大多数企业尚未优化其人工智能解决方案或实现其人工智能投资的正回报。人工智能不太可能避免之前那些下一个大趋势的命运。</p>
<p>历史先例影响的另一个领域是估值。尽管 AMD 的估值并不算过高，但英伟达和 Palantir 的情况就不那么乐观，它们与历史发生了冲突。</p>
<p>在 25 年前互联网泡沫破裂之前，处于互联网革命前沿的企业的市销率通常在过去 12 个月销售额的 30 到 40 倍之间。截止到 8 月 12 日，英伟达的市销率接近 31，而 Palantir 的市销率为 137，这是我在 27 年的投资生涯中见过的最大市销率。</p>
<p>虽然这两家公司都提供了值得溢价估值的竞争优势，但历史非常清楚，这种程度的长期溢价是不可持续的。</p>
<p>在持续的内部人士卖出、几乎没有内部人士买入以及不断增加的历史阻力下，英伟达、Palantir 和 AMD 的风险与回报的天平无疑倾向于 “风险”。</p>

英伟达

PLTR

<p>英伟达、Palantir 和 AMD 联合向华尔街发出了近 130 亿美元的警告，主要是由于过去五年内内部人士的重大减持，总额超过 129 亿美元。尽管人工智能行业具有增长潜力，但内部人士几乎没有进行股票购买，这引发了对未来股票表现的质疑。此外，历史趋势表明人工智能股票估值可能面临阻力，投资者应对这些公司的前景保持谨慎</p>

<p>Roughly 30 years ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet began positively altering the growth arc for corporate America. The internet offered businesses new ways to interact with prospective and existing clients, as well as market their products. For decades, investors have been waiting for the next technological leap forward, and the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution looks to be it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约 30 年前，互联网的出现和普及开始积极改变美国企业的增长轨迹。互联网为企业提供了与潜在和现有客户互动的新方式，以及市场营销其产品的新途径。几十年来，投资者一直在等待下一个技术飞跃，而人工智能（AI）革命似乎就是这个飞跃。</p>
</div><p>The combination of increased productivity and consumption-side effects associated with the rise of AI is expected to increase global gross domestic product by $15.7 trillion come 2030, according to analysts at PwC. This sky-high addressable market is the primary reason we've witnessed Wall Street's AI darlings -- <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.28%), <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.78%), and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.81%), which is commonly known as &#34;AMD&#34; -- soar since 2023 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据普华永道（PwC）分析师的预测，随着人工智能的崛起，生产力和消费侧效应的结合预计将在 2030 年前使全球国内生产总值增加 15700 亿美元。这一庞大的可寻址市场是我们目睹华尔街的人工智能宠儿——<strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 0.28%）、<strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.78%）和 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（Advanced Micro Devices）（AMD -1.81%）自 2023 年开始飙升的主要原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829052%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) account for the bulk of the GPUs deployed in AI-accelerated data centers. Meanwhile, production for AMD's Instinct series AI-accelerating chips is expanding, with the expectation that it'll carve out a healthy share of the AI-GPU market for enterprise data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 图形处理单元（GPU）占据了在 AI 加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的大部分。同时，超微半导体的 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的生产正在扩大，预计将为企业数据中心的 AI-GPU 市场占据一席之地。</p>
</div><p>As for Palantir, its AI- and machine learning-powered software-as-a-service Gotham and Foundry platforms offer sustainable moats. Federal governments turn to Gotham for military mission planning and execution, along with data collection and analysis. Meanwhile, Foundry is a subscription-driven platform for businesses looking to make sense of their big data and streamline/automate their operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于 Palantir，其基于 AI 和机器学习的软件即服务平台 Gotham 和 Foundry 提供了可持续的护城河。联邦政府依赖 Gotham 进行军事任务规划和执行，以及数据收集和分析。同时，Foundry 是一个基于订阅的企业平台，旨在帮助企业理解其大数据并简化/自动化其运营。</p>
</div><p>While their respective share price appreciation indicates everything is going great for Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD, all three companies have, collectively, offered up a nearly $13 billion warning to Wall Street. The real question is: Are you, or any other investors, heeding this warning?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管它们各自的股价上涨表明英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体一切顺利，但这三家公司共同向华尔街发出了近 130 亿美元的警告。真正的问题是：你或其他投资者是否在关注这个警告？</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD combine for close to a $13 billion warning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体共同发出近 130 亿美元的警告</h2>
</div><p>There are a number of potential headwinds that can come into play for AI stocks over the coming quarters and years, some of which I'll touch on a bit later. However, one of the more front-and-center concerns has to do with the how corporate insiders have approached their company's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来几个季度和几年中，AI 股票可能面临多种潜在的逆风，其中一些我稍后会提到。然而，更为显著的担忧之一与公司内部人士如何看待其公司股票有关。</p>
</div><p>Here's the good news: Thanks to required Form 4 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, investors have the ability to track the purchasing and selling activity of executives and board members. This activity details the buying and selling of common stock, as well as options activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是：由于需要向证券交易委员会提交的 4 号表格，投资者可以追踪高管和董事会成员的买卖活动。这些活动详细记录了普通股的买卖以及期权活动。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD, there's been a very clear trend over the last five years (note: Palantir's initial public offering was Sept. 30, 2020): insider selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体而言，在过去五年中有一个非常明显的趋势（注意：Palantir 的首次公开募股是在 2020 年 9 月 30 日）：内部人士的卖出。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period, net selling activity has totaled:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，净卖出活动总计：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>More than $4.71 billion for Nvidia.</li>
<li>Over $7.43 billion for Palantir.</li>
<li>Approximately $762 million for AMD.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英伟达超过 47.1 亿美元。</li>
<li>Palantir 超过 74.3 亿美元。</li>
<li>超微半导体约 7.62 亿美元。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Collectively, the insiders of these three highly influential AI businesses have sold north of $12.9 billion worth of their common stock over the trailing half-decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的五年中，这三家具有高度影响力的 AI 企业的内部人士共售出了超过 129 亿美元的普通股。</p>
</div><p>However, insider selling isn't as cut-and-dried as it might appear on the surface. This is to say there are a lot of reasons insiders might sell their company's stock -- and they're not all nefarious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，内部人士的卖出并不像表面上看起来那么简单。这就是说，内部人士可能会出于多种原因出售其公司的股票，而这些原因并不全是恶意的。</p>
</div><p>For instance, most executives receive stock-based compensation and/or options. Options are required to be exercised within a certain time frame, otherwise they expire worthless. With some executives receiving the lion's share of their compensation in stock or options, they have to sell their company's stock to cover their federal and/or state tax bill. The key point here is that not all insider selling is necessarily bad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，大多数高管会获得基于股票的薪酬和/或期权。期权必须在特定时间内行使，否则将失效。由于一些高管的薪酬大部分以股票或期权形式支付，他们必须出售公司股票以支付联邦和/或州税。关键点是，并非所有的内部人士卖出都是坏事。</p>
</div><p>But at the same time, there's only one reason executives and board members purchase their company's stock: they expect it to head higher. Over the trailing five-year period, executives and board members have made exactly one purchase at Nvidia, one purchase at Palantir, and two purchases at AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但与此同时，高管和董事会成员购买公司股票的唯一原因是：他们预计股票会升值。在过去五年中，高管和董事会成员在英伟达只进行了一次购买，在 Palantir 进行了一次购买，在超微半导体进行了两次购买。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway here is simple: if insiders at Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD aren't willing to purchase their own company's stock, why should everyday investors believe these three stocks still offer significant upside?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里的结论很简单：如果英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体的内部人士不愿意购买自己公司的股票，为什么普通投资者应该相信这三只股票仍然有显著的上涨空间？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwNTIvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829052%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Insider activity isn't the only concern</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>内部活动并不是唯一的担忧</h2>
</div><p>Unfortunately, this nearly $13 billion warning isn't the only worry for investors. Historical precedent is a multipronged headwind that has the potential to meaningfully drag down AI stock valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，这近 130 亿美元的警告并不是投资者唯一的担忧。历史先例是一个多方面的逆风，可能会显著拖累 AI 股票的估值。</p>
</div><p>To preface the following discussion, history is never guaranteed to repeat on Wall Street. If there was an indicator that concretely guaranteed short-term directional moves in stocks, you can rest assured that everyone would be using it by now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在讨论以下内容之前，历史并不总是保证在华尔街重演。如果有某种指标可以明确保证股票的短期方向性变动，你可以放心，大家现在都会在使用它。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, there <em>are</em> historical events and metrics that have flawlessly correlated with directional moves for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and Wall Street's other major indexes in the past. It's these correlations that suggest Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD could be in a world of trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，确实存在与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和华尔街其他主要指数的方向性变动完美相关的历史事件和指标。正是这些相关性表明英伟达、Palantir 和超微半导体可能面临麻烦。</p>
</div><p>For example, every game-changing innovation since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has endured a bubble-bursting event fairly early in its expansion. This long line of hyped innovations navigating their way through bubbles signals that investors consistently overestimate the utility and early stage adoption of new technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一次改变游戏规则的创新都经历过一次泡沫破裂事件，通常发生在其扩张的早期。这一系列备受关注的创新经历泡沫的过程表明，投资者一贯高估新技术的实用性和早期采用情况。</p>
</div><p>Although spending on AI infrastructure has been robust, as Nvidia's and AMD's operating results suggest, most businesses have yet to optimize their AI solutions or generate a positive return on their AI investments. It's unlikely that artificial intelligence will avoid the fate of previous next-big-thing trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对人工智能基础设施的支出一直很强劲，正如英伟达和 AMD 的运营结果所示，但大多数企业尚未优化其人工智能解决方案或实现其人工智能投资的正回报。人工智能不太可能避免之前那些下一个大趋势的命运。</p>
</div><p>The other area where historical precedent comes into play is valuations. Though AMD's valuation isn't egregiously high, the same can't be said for Nvidia or Palantir, which are butting heads with history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史先例影响的另一个领域是估值。尽管 AMD 的估值并不算过高，但英伟达和 Palantir 的情况就不那么乐观，它们与历史发生了冲突。</p>
</div><p>Before the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter of a century ago, businesses on the leading edge of the internet revolution consistently peaked at around 30 to 40 times trailing-12-month sales. As of this writing on Aug. 12, Nvidia is tipping the scales at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of nearly 31, while Palantir's P/S ratio is 137, which is the highest I've ever witnessed for a megacap company in 27 years of investing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 25 年前互联网泡沫破裂之前，处于互联网革命前沿的企业的市销率通常在过去 12 个月销售额的 30 到 40 倍之间。截止到 8 月 12 日，英伟达的市销率接近 31，而 Palantir 的市销率为 137，这是我在 27 年的投资生涯中见过的最大市销率。</p>
</div><p>While both companies offer competitive advantages that are worthy of valuation premiums, history is quite clear that extended premiums of this magnitude aren't sustainable over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这两家公司都提供了值得溢价估值的竞争优势，但历史非常清楚，这种程度的长期溢价是不可持续的。</p>
</div><p>Between persistent insider selling, a virtual lack of insider buying, and mounting historical headwinds, the risk-versus-reward pendulum for Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD has undeniably swung toward &#34;risk.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在持续的内部人士卖出、几乎没有内部人士买入以及不断增加的历史阻力下，英伟达、Palantir 和 AMD 的风险与回报的天平无疑倾向于 “风险”。</p>
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Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD Have a Nearly $13 Billion Warning for Wall Street -- but Are You Paying Attention?

- 人工智能预计到 2030 年将推动全球 GDP 增长 1.57 万亿美元。  
- Nvidia、Palantir 和 AMD 的高管在过去五年内共售出超过 129 亿美元股票。  
- 历史数据显示，技术股常面临泡沫破裂风险，当前估值过高。  

英伟达、Palantir Tech 和 AMD 对华尔街发出了近 130 亿美元的警告——你是否在关注？