<p>数字广告老将 <strong>Trade Desk</strong>(TTD 2.90%) 曾经是热门股票。到 2024 年 12 月初，该股在两年内上涨了 156%，表现出色。该股的市场估值倍数如自由现金流 134 倍和销售额 30 倍，令人瞩目。相比之下，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.98%) 的股票显得相对便宜。</p>
<p>但情况已经改变。</p>
<p>Trade Desk 最近的财报表现强劲，但伴随而来的是令人警醒的市场分析和温和的前瞻性指引。残酷的市场反应抹去了 Trade Desk 投资者几年的收益。</p>
<p>因此，如果你在五年前投资了 500 美元在 Trade Desk 上，那么今天这笔投资的价值仅为 576 美元：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4347d6dcda65cc0ded29fd50b3f9610.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4347d6dcda65cc0ded29fd50b3f9610.png"/></p>
<p>TTD 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>在同一时期，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.11%) 的总回报翻了一番，年复合增长率 (CAGR) 达到 15.6%，而 Trade Desk 的增长率仅为 2.9%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0ODIvY29uZnVzZWQtY29tcHV0ZXItdXNlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0ODIvY29uZnVzZWQtY29tcHV0ZXItdXNlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>现实检查的银 lining</h2>
<p>如今，你可以以 33 倍自由现金流和 9 倍销售额的相对合理估值购买 Trade Desk 的股票。如果今天股价翻倍，股票的估值倍数仍低于 Nvidia 的 62 倍自由现金流和 30 倍销售额。</p>
<p>请注意，Trade Desk 仍然远未成为深度折扣价值股。这些倍数适合于一家快速增长、目标市场广阔的企业。</p>
<p>我认为 Trade Desk 符合这个描述。多年来，其销售额一直在飙升，自由现金流也比以往更加丰厚：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0cb31eacc0a5990bc4b9912d51f2d5e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0cb31eacc0a5990bc4b9912d51f2d5e.png"/></p>
<p>TTD 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>该公司的短期前景在最近几个季度不太乐观，但管理层仍预计第三季度报告的销售增长约为 14%。这个增长故事远未结束。2025 年的股价下调只是让这家顶尖公司变得更加实惠。</p>

<p>Trade Desk (TTD) 的股票在过去五年中 modest 增加了 2.9%，目前价值为 576 美元，相对于 500 美元的投资。尽管收益强劲，但该股票的估值已降至自由现金流的 33 倍和销售额的 9 倍，相较于 Nvidia 更具吸引力。公司预计在即将到来的季度销售增长 14%，这表明数字广告行业仍有持续增长的潜力</p>

<p>Digital advertising veteran <strong>The Trade Desk</strong>(TTD 2.90%) used to be hot stuff. In early December 2024, the stock had posted a market-stomping 156% gain in two years. The stock traded at market-darling valuation multiples such as 134 times free cash flow and 30 times sales. The Trade Desk made mighty <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA -0.98%) stock look affordable by comparison.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字广告老将 <strong>Trade Desk</strong>(TTD 2.90%) 曾经是热门股票。到 2024 年 12 月初，该股在两年内上涨了 156%，表现出色。该股的市场估值倍数如自由现金流 134 倍和销售额 30 倍，令人瞩目。相比之下，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.98%) 的股票显得相对便宜。</p>
</div><p>But things have changed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但情况已经改变。</p>
</div><p>The Trade Desk's recent earnings reports have been robust, but they were accompanied by a sobering market analysis and modest forward-looking guidance. The brutal market reaction wiped out several years of The Trade Desk's investor gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Trade Desk 最近的财报表现强劲，但伴随而来的是令人警醒的市场分析和温和的前瞻性指引。残酷的市场反应抹去了 Trade Desk 投资者几年的收益。</p>
</div><p>So if you invested $500 in The Trade Desk five years ago, that position would be worth just $576 today:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果你在五年前投资了 500 美元在 Trade Desk 上，那么今天这笔投资的价值仅为 576 美元：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4347d6dcda65cc0ded29fd50b3f9610.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4347d6dcda65cc0ded29fd50b3f9610.png"/></p>
<p>TTD Total Return Level data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TTD 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.11%) market index more than doubled over the same period, in terms of total returns. That's an above-average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% versus The Trade Desk's anemic 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在同一时期，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.11%) 的总回报翻了一番，年复合增长率 (CAGR) 达到 15.6%，而 Trade Desk 的增长率仅为 2.9%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0ODIvY29uZnVzZWQtY29tcHV0ZXItdXNlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829482%2Fconfused-computer-user.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Silver lining of the reality check</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现实检查的银 lining</h2>
</div><p>These days, you can buy The Trade Desk's stock at a less outrageous valuation of 33 times free cash flow and 9 times sales. If the stock price doubled today, the shares would still carry lower valuation multiples than Nvidia's 62 times free cash flow and 30 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，你可以以 33 倍自由现金流和 9 倍销售额的相对合理估值购买 Trade Desk 的股票。如果今天股价翻倍，股票的估值倍数仍低于 Nvidia 的 62 倍自由现金流和 30 倍销售额。</p>
</div><p>Mind you, The Trade Desk is still far from a deep-discount value stock. These multiples are appropriate for a fast-growing business addressing a large target market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，Trade Desk 仍然远未成为深度折扣价值股。这些倍数适合于一家快速增长、目标市场广阔的企业。</p>
</div><p>And I would argue that The Trade Desk fits that description. Its sales have been soaring for years, and free cash flows are richer than ever:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为 Trade Desk 符合这个描述。多年来，其销售额一直在飙升，自由现金流也比以往更加丰厚：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0cb31eacc0a5990bc4b9912d51f2d5e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d0cb31eacc0a5990bc4b9912d51f2d5e.png"/></p>
<p>TTD Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TTD 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The company's near-term outlook has been less bullish in recent quarters, but management still expects roughly 14% sales growth in the third-quarter report. This growth story is far from over. The 2025 stock price cuts simply made this top-notch company more affordable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的短期前景在最近几个季度不太乐观，但管理层仍预计第三季度报告的销售增长约为 14%。这个增长故事远未结束。2025 年的股价下调只是让这家顶尖公司变得更加实惠。</p>
</div>

如果你在五年前投资了 500 美元于 Trade Desk 的股票，那么今天你会拥有多少