<p>在 8 月 5 日以每股 202.69 美元收盘后，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.55%）的股票在短短三天内飙升了惊人的 13%，在 8 月 8 日以每股 229.09 美元收盘。</p>
<p>这一举动使得这家科技巨头的市值达到了 3.404 万亿美元，增加了惊人的 3940 亿美元。这就像凭空创造了一家与 <strong>家得宝</strong> 相当的公司。</p>
<p>在经历了大部分时间的低迷后，让我们来判断苹果是否具备与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.85%）和 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.40%）一起加入 4 万亿美元市值俱乐部的能力，以及这只成长股现在是否值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果的重大新闻</h2>
<p>苹果的突然上涨是由于其 1000 亿美元的制造计划。该计划上周宣布，将创造美国就业机会，并将苹果复杂的供应链部分回流到美国。</p>
<p>由于苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克访问白宫以及苹果的制造承诺，特朗普总统表示苹果将 100% 免除对进口半导体的特定关税。苹果有可能减少其高昂的关税支出，甚至可能获得政府对其回流努力的支持，这无疑对公司的短期前景是个利好。</p>
<p>苹果并不是唯一一家试图与现任政府在关税问题上合作的巨头公司。周一，有报道称英伟达与特朗普总统达成了一项协议，允许这家芯片制造商恢复出口其 H20 芯片，以换取向美国政府支付 15% 的中国收入。H20 是英伟达最先进芯片的缩小版，专为符合贸易限制的中国市场定制。现任政府打算保留某些关税，但似乎也愿意与大企业谈判达成协议。</p>
<p>苹果的制造新闻是积极的，基于关税的短期影响。这项投资可能帮助苹果减少对贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险的敏感性。然而，目前尚不清楚这将如何影响苹果的长期投资论点。苹果已经掌握了管理全球供应链以实现成本优势和提高利润率的艺术。将部分供应链回流可能会导致成本上升。</p>
<p>然而，苹果在人工智能（AI）领域尚未取得显著进展，这也是这家科技巨头落后于其他更明确的 AI 赢家如英伟达和微软的主要原因之一。</p>
<p>为了为苹果辩护，该公司在苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）基础上进行了构建，并发布了一项名为液态玻璃（Liquid Glass）的新设计更新。总体而言，考虑到苹果近年来增长缓慢，市场对该公司的 AI 努力并不感到满意。</p>
<h2>苹果的盈利增长无法证明其高估值的合理性</h2>
<p>苹果在很大程度上依赖其高利润率的服务部门和股票回购来推动盈利，以抵消其产品部门的疲软表现。苹果的服务，包括 iCloud、Apple Music 和 Apple TV+，多年来一直是亮点。但苹果的底线更依赖于关键产品，如 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴设备。</p>
<p>在苹果最新的财报——2025 财年的第三季度发布后，投资者松了一口气，该财报显示其产品部门有显著改善。收入增长了 10%，稀释后每股收益（EPS）跃升了 12%，其中 iPhone、Mac 和服务均实现了两位数的增长。尽管这一季度表现良好，苹果的净收入在过去三年中略有下降，因此其盈利仅因回购而上升。但股价大幅上涨，使得苹果相对昂贵。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="539" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>苹果的业绩朝着正确的方向发展，但估值远非便宜。实际上，苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E），即股价除以分析师对未来 12 个月 EPS 的共识预期，已高于其五年和十年的中位数 P/E 比率。即使苹果按预期表现，股价在一年内不变，它仍然会相对昂贵。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>苹果必须艰难地赚取 4 万亿美元</h2>
<p>苹果在其产品系列中整合 AI 的方式是正确的。苹果的竞争优势在于其设计、用户友好的产品、软件和硬件的无缝集成，以及为消费者和企业提供的全面产品。换句话说，苹果 AI 功能的日常实用性是最重要的绩效指标。</p>
<p>同意苹果在 AI 方面谨慎做法的投资者，尽管估值较高，仍可能希望现在购买该股票。然而，考虑到苹果的高价，其达到 4 万亿美元市值的道路可能需要依靠盈利增长，而非估值扩张。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，苹果的市值为 3.418 万亿美元，要跨越 4 万亿美元，它需要上涨 17%。在一两年内，它当然可以实现如此规模的盈利增长。如果投资者喜欢公司在 AI 方面的举措，它可能会维持高于历史水平的估值。</p>
<p>总的来说，我预计苹果将在 2026 年底之前跨越 4 万亿美元的市值，但投资者不应指望公司能在一夜之间实现这一目标——即使在短短三天内增加了 3920 亿美元的市值。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在三天内飙升了 13%，市值增加了 3940 亿美元，达到了 3.404 万亿美元。这一增长是在宣布了一项 1000 亿美元的制造计划之后，该计划旨在创造美国就业机会并减少关税支出。尽管短期前景乐观，但人们对苹果的长期增长仍然存在担忧，特别是在人工智能领域，苹果在竞争中落后于英伟达和微软。尽管最近的财报显示出改善，但苹果的高估值引发了人们对其未来表现及能否加入 4 万亿美元市值俱乐部的质疑</p>

<p>After closing at $202.69 per share on Aug. 5, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) stock soared a staggering 13% in just three days to finish Aug. 8 at $229.09 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 8 月 5 日以每股 202.69 美元收盘后，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.55%）的股票在短短三天内飙升了惊人的 13%，在 8 月 8 日以每股 229.09 美元收盘。</p>
</div><p>The move pole-vaulted the tech giant's market cap to $3.404 trillion -- a whopping $394 billion gain. That's like creating a company the size of <strong>Home Depot</strong> out of thin air.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动使得这家科技巨头的市值达到了 3.404 万亿美元，增加了惊人的 3940 亿美元。这就像凭空创造了一家与 <strong>家得宝</strong> 相当的公司。</p>
</div><p>After languishing for most of the year, let's determine if Apple has what it takes to join <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.85%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.40%) in the $4 trillion market cap club, and if the growth stock is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了大部分时间的低迷后，让我们来判断苹果是否具备与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.85%）和 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.40%）一起加入 4 万亿美元市值俱乐部的能力，以及这只成长股现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg5OTYvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxlYW5pbmctb24tYS1yYWlsaW5nLWluLWFuLXVyYmFuLXNldHRpbmctYnktYS1ib2R5LW9mLXdhdGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828996%2Fa-person-smiles-while-leaning-on-a-railing-in-an-urban-setting-by-a-body-of-water.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's massive news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的重大新闻</h2>
</div><p>Apple's sudden pop came in response to its $100 billion manufacturing program. Announced last week, the program will create American jobs and onshore some of Apple's complex supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的突然上涨是由于其 1000 亿美元的制造计划。该计划上周宣布，将创造美国就业机会，并将苹果复杂的供应链部分回流到美国。</p>
</div><p>Due to Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to the White House and Apple's manufacturing commitment, President Trump said that Apple would be 100% exempt from a specific tariff on imported semiconductors. The potential for Apple to reduce its costly tariff expense, and maybe even get government support for its onshoring efforts, is undoubtedly a boon for the company's near-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克访问白宫以及苹果的制造承诺，特朗普总统表示苹果将 100% 免除对进口半导体的特定关税。苹果有可能减少其高昂的关税支出，甚至可能获得政府对其回流努力的支持，这无疑对公司的短期前景是个利好。</p>
</div><p>Apple isn't the only mega-cap company that is trying to work with the current administration on tariffs. On Monday, reports indicated that Nvidia made a deal with President Trump, allowing the chipmaker to resume exporting its H20 chips in exchange for giving the U.S. government 15% of its revenue from China. The H20 is a scaled-down version of Nvidia's most advanced chips, which are custom-built for Chinese markets to comply with trade restrictions. The current administration intends to retain certain tariffs, but it also appears willing to negotiate deals with big businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果并不是唯一一家试图与现任政府在关税问题上合作的巨头公司。周一，有报道称英伟达与特朗普总统达成了一项协议，允许这家芯片制造商恢复出口其 H20 芯片，以换取向美国政府支付 15% 的中国收入。H20 是英伟达最先进芯片的缩小版，专为符合贸易限制的中国市场定制。现任政府打算保留某些关税，但似乎也愿意与大企业谈判达成协议。</p>
</div><p>Apple's manufacturing news is positive, based on the near-term impact of tariffs. The investment could help Apple reduce its sensitivity to trade tensions and geopolitical risk. However, it's unclear how it impacts Apple's long-term investment thesis. Apple has mastered the art of managing a global supply chain to achieve cost advantages and boost its profit margins. Onshoring some of its supply chain could lead to higher costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的制造新闻是积极的，基于关税的短期影响。这项投资可能帮助苹果减少对贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险的敏感性。然而，目前尚不清楚这将如何影响苹果的长期投资论点。苹果已经掌握了管理全球供应链以实现成本优势和提高利润率的艺术。将部分供应链回流可能会导致成本上升。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple has yet to make a meaningful splash in artificial intelligence (AI) -- which is one of the main reasons why the tech giant has been lagging behind the performance of other, more defined AI winners like Nvidia and Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果在人工智能（AI）领域尚未取得显著进展，这也是这家科技巨头落后于其他更明确的 AI 赢家如英伟达和微软的主要原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In Apple's defense, the company has built on Apple Intelligence and released a new design update called Liquid Glass. Overall, the market is not impressed with the company's AI efforts, considering how sluggish Apple's growth has been in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了为苹果辩护，该公司在苹果智能（Apple Intelligence）基础上进行了构建，并发布了一项名为液态玻璃（Liquid Glass）的新设计更新。总体而言，考虑到苹果近年来增长缓慢，市场对该公司的 AI 努力并不感到满意。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's earnings growth doesn't justify its lofty valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的盈利增长无法证明其高估值的合理性</h2>
</div><p>Apple has heavily relied on its high-margin services segment and stock buybacks to drive earnings to offset weak results from its product segment. Apple's services, which include iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple TV+, have been the standout for years now. But Apple's bottom line depends more on key products, like iPhone, Mac, iPad, and wearables.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在很大程度上依赖其高利润率的服务部门和股票回购来推动盈利，以抵消其产品部门的疲软表现。苹果的服务，包括 iCloud、Apple Music 和 Apple TV+，多年来一直是亮点。但苹果的底线更依赖于关键产品，如 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴设备。</p>
</div><p>Investors breathed a sigh of relief after Apple's latest quarter -- the third quarter of fiscal 2025 -- which showed a significant improvement in its product segment. Revenue grew 10% and diluted earnings per share (EPS) jumped 12% including double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac, and services. Despite the solid quarter, Apple's net income has slightly declined over the last three years, so its earnings are only up due to buybacks. But the stock price has gone up substantially, which has made Apple relatively expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在苹果最新的财报——2025 财年的第三季度发布后，投资者松了一口气，该财报显示其产品部门有显著改善。收入增长了 10%，稀释后每股收益（EPS）跃升了 12%，其中 iPhone、Mac 和服务均实现了两位数的增长。尽管这一季度表现良好，苹果的净收入在过去三年中略有下降，因此其盈利仅因回购而上升。但股价大幅上涨，使得苹果相对昂贵。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3170ce65c9090cd3edb1d1828bb3f1c6.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Apple's results are headed in the right direction, but the valuation is far from cheap. In fact, Apple's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is the stock price divided by analyst consensus EPS estimates over the next 12 months, is higher than its five-year and 10-year median P/E ratios. Even if Apple performs as expected and the stock price doesn't move for a year, it will still be relatively expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的业绩朝着正确的方向发展，但估值远非便宜。实际上，苹果的前瞻市盈率（P/E），即股价除以分析师对未来 12 个月 EPS 的共识预期，已高于其五年和十年的中位数 P/E 比率。即使苹果按预期表现，股价在一年内不变，它仍然会相对昂贵。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ffe3e00ceb14cedba401d4ad0777706b.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Apple has to earn $4 trillion the hard way</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果必须艰难地赚取 4 万亿美元</h2>
</div><p>Apple is taking the right approach to integrating AI across its product suite. Apple's competitive advantages are its design, user-friendly products, seamless integration of software and hardware, and comprehensive product offerings for consumers and businesses. In other words, the everyday usefulness of Apple's AI features is the most important performance indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在其产品系列中整合 AI 的方式是正确的。苹果的竞争优势在于其设计、用户友好的产品、软件和硬件的无缝集成，以及为消费者和企业提供的全面产品。换句话说，苹果 AI 功能的日常实用性是最重要的绩效指标。</p>
</div><p>Investors who agree with Apple's deliberate approach to AI may still want to consider buying the stock now, despite the premium valuation. However, given how pricey Apple is, its road to $4 trillion in market cap will likely need to come from earnings growth rather than valuation expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同意苹果在 AI 方面谨慎做法的投资者，尽管估值较高，仍可能希望现在购买该股票。然而，考虑到苹果的高价，其达到 4 万亿美元市值的道路可能需要依靠盈利增长，而非估值扩张。</p>
</div><p>With a market cap of $3.418 trillion at the time of this writing, Apple would have to jump 17% to cross $4 trillion. It could certainly grow earnings by that much in a year or two. And if investors like what the company is doing with AI, it could maintain its higher-than-historical valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，苹果的市值为 3.418 万亿美元，要跨越 4 万亿美元，它需要上涨 17%。在一两年内，它当然可以实现如此规模的盈利增长。如果投资者喜欢公司在 AI 方面的举措，它可能会维持高于历史水平的估值。</p>
</div><p>All told, I expect Apple to cross $4 trillion in market cap by the end of 2026 -- but investors shouldn't expect the company to get there overnight -- even after adding $392 billion in market cap in just three days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，我预计苹果将在 2026 年底之前跨越 4 万亿美元的市值，但投资者不应指望公司能在一夜之间实现这一目标——即使在短短三天内增加了 3920 亿美元的市值。</p>
</div>

After Gaining $394 Billion in Market Cap in 3 Days, Is Apple Stock on Its Way to Joining Nvidia and Microsoft in the $4 Trillion Club?

- 苹果股价在三天内上涨 13%，市值达 3.404 万亿美元，增加 3940 亿美元。  
- 苹果宣布 1000 亿美元制造计划，可能降低关税支出，提升短期前景。  
- 尽管产品收入增长，苹果估值仍高，需依靠盈利增长实现 4 万亿美元市值。

在三天内市值增加 3940 亿美元后，苹果股票是否有望与英伟达和微软一起进入 4 万亿美元俱乐部？