<p>最近市场对 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) 并不太满意。这家电子商务巨头报告了相当出色的第二季度业绩，但关税仍然对其利润构成威胁，并且报告中的一些部分并不乐观。因此，尽管基准 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨超过 10%，亚马逊的股票年初至今基本持平。</p>
<p>但令人失望的更新实际上只是整体上令人鼓舞的报告中的一小部分。让我们回顾一下亚马逊的现状，并考虑它在五年后可能会处于何种位置。</p>
<h2>电子商务领域没有竞争对手</h2>
<p>自三十年前开始运营以来，亚马逊已成为美国电子商务的王者。没有国内竞争对手能够接近它。它通过改善交货时间和更广泛的产品种类不断巩固其领先地位，并通过机器人和无人机交付升级自己的履约链。它还与供应商和配送服务提供商建立了杠杆关系。这种组合为它提供了强大的护城河，使其保持在行业顶端。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<p>在第二季度报告中，市场担心的一个问题是关税的不确定性，这将广泛影响电子商务销售。亚马逊销售的商品中有很大一部分来自中国供应商。这些进口税对公司的影响程度可能会在未来几个月内得到澄清。</p>
<p>电子商务部门是其增长较慢的业务之一，但它提供的收入为其他领域的创新提供了资金。然而，第二季度的电子商务销售强劲，同比增长 11%。管理层表示，到年底，它将把同日或次日交付服务扩展到另外 4000 个小型社区，这一扩展趋势应该会持续下去。投资者可以预期，亚马逊的电子商务销售增长在未来五年将放缓，但它将加快交付速度并扩大护城河。</p>
<h2>仍然是云计算领域的领导者</h2>
<p>报告中另一个让投资者担忧的方面是亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售增长率。该部门的收入同比增长 17.5%，但远低于 <strong>微软</strong> Azure 的 34% 增长，后者是第二大云基础设施提供商。AWS 仍然比 Azure 大得多，因此其较慢的增长率不应被视为过于令人担忧。不过，这仍然是一个需要关注的点。</p>
<p>目前，亚马逊是全球最大的云基础设施提供商，市场份额为 30%，根据 Statista 的数据，几乎与 Azure 和第三大谷歌云的总和相当。亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）不断告诉股东，85% 到 90% 的客户信息技术支出仍然用于本地系统，但在未来 10 到 15 年内，这一支出将转向云计算。亚马逊正在投资云开发，以保持其主导地位并从这一转变中受益。</p>
<p>五年后，这一转变应该开始成为现实，AWS 的增长率可能会加速，或者至少保持稳定。</p>
<h2>在人工智能领域占据一席之地</h2>
<p>这将我们引向人工智能（AI），因为亚马逊的生成式 AI 业务在 AWS 的框架下运营。亚马逊仅在 2025 年就将投入超过 1000 亿美元来开发其平台，并为每个人提供服务。它已经通过其标志性的 AI 平台 Bedrock 提供了一系列服务，并专注于改善提供现成解决方案的平台顶层。</p>
<p>贾西设想了一个不久的将来，生成式 AI 将嵌入到每个新应用中，而这些工具的大部分开发将发生在云端。这就是为什么亚马逊正在开发一个综合平台，这可能会在未来五年内继续保持目前三位数百分比增长的业务的高增长。</p>
<h2>成为全球销售额最大的公司</h2>
<p>亚马逊是全球第二大公司，仅次于零售巨头 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。但它接近超越沃尔玛；亚马逊第二季度的销售额为 1677 亿美元，而沃尔玛最近报告的销售额为 1656 亿美元。</p>
<p>如果销售增长继续保持两位数的百分比，甚至滑落到高个位数的百分比，而其营业收入持续攀升，那么很难想象亚马逊的股票在五年后不会比今天高得多。随着公司的增长，其增长率可能会下降，但随着 AI 在其业务中扮演越来越重要的角色，它可能会保持增长率稳定。以下是两种潜在情景：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>情景 1</th>
<th>情景 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年复合增长率</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年后的总年收入</td>
<td>1.03 万亿美元</td>
<td>1.18 万亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>如果其市销率保持不变，这一增长将使亚马逊的市值达到 3700 亿到 4200 亿美元，尽管其市销率自然会根据市场情绪波动。不过，这些估计将意味着未来五年股价上涨 60% 到 85% 之间。这些数字并不惊人，仅代表众多可能性中的一部分，但我认为它们提供了一个合理的预期，说明亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会处于何种位置。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票表现今年一直平稳，尽管第二季度的业绩强劲。该公司在美国电子商务领域仍然处于领先地位，并计划提升配送服务。人们对关税以及 AWS 与微软 Azure 等竞争对手相比增长放缓表示担忧。然而，亚马逊正在大力投资于人工智能和云开发，这可能会维持其增长。随着销售额接近沃尔玛，亚马逊有可能在未来五年内成为按销售额计算的最大公司，这取决于增长率和市场条件</p>

<p>The market hasn't been thrilled with <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) lately. The e-commerce giant reported pretty outstanding second-quarter results, but tariffs remain a threat to its profits, and a few parts of the report were less than positive. As a result, Amazon stock is now roughly flat year to date, even as the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has climbed more than 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近市场对 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) 并不太满意。这家电子商务巨头报告了相当出色的第二季度业绩，但关税仍然对其利润构成威胁，并且报告中的一些部分并不乐观。因此，尽管基准 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数上涨超过 10%，亚马逊的股票年初至今基本持平。</p>
</div><p>But the disappointing updates were really a small part of what was largely an encouraging report. Let's review what's happening at Amazon and consider where it might be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但令人失望的更新实际上只是整体上令人鼓舞的报告中的一小部分。让我们回顾一下亚马逊的现状，并考虑它在五年后可能会处于何种位置。</p>
</div><h2>No rivals in e-commerce</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电子商务领域没有竞争对手</h2>
</div><p>In the years since it began operating three decades ago, Amazon has become the king of U.S. e-commerce. No domestic competitor has been able to come close to it. It keeps building on its lead with improved delivery times and wider assortments of products, and it's upgrading its own fulfillment chain with robotics and drone deliveries. It also has leverage with suppliers and delivery providers. It's a combination that provides it with a robust moat that has kept it on top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自三十年前开始运营以来，亚马逊已成为美国电子商务的王者。没有国内竞争对手能够接近它。它通过改善交货时间和更广泛的产品种类不断巩固其领先地位，并通过机器人和无人机交付升级自己的履约链。它还与供应商和配送服务提供商建立了杠杆关系。这种组合为它提供了强大的护城河，使其保持在行业顶端。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzgvYW1hem9uLWVsZWN0cmljLWRlbGl2ZXJ5LWJpa2UucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827178%2Famazon-electric-delivery-bike.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><p>One of the things that bothered the market in the second-quarter report was the uncertainty around tariffs, which will broadly impact e-commerce sales. A large portion of the goods sold on Amazon come from suppliers in China. How much of an issue those import taxes will be for the company is likely to be clarified over the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度报告中，市场担心的一个问题是关税的不确定性，这将广泛影响电子商务销售。亚马逊销售的商品中有很大一部分来自中国供应商。这些进口税对公司的影响程度可能会在未来几个月内得到澄清。</p>
</div><p>The e-commerce segment is one of its slower-growing businesses, but it provides income that fuels its innovation in other areas. However, e-commerce sales were strong in the second quarter, up 11% year over year. Management said that it will bring its same-day or next-day delivery services to another 4,000 smaller communities by the end of the year, and that trend of expansion should continue. Investors can expect that Amazon's e-commerce sales growth will slow down over the next five years, but that it will speed up deliveries and widen its moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务部门是其增长较慢的业务之一，但它提供的收入为其他领域的创新提供了资金。然而，第二季度的电子商务销售强劲，同比增长 11%。管理层表示，到年底，它将把同日或次日交付服务扩展到另外 4000 个小型社区，这一扩展趋势应该会持续下去。投资者可以预期，亚马逊的电子商务销售增长在未来五年将放缓，但它将加快交付速度并扩大护城河。</p>
</div><h2>Still the leader in the cloud</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然是云计算领域的领导者</h2>
</div><p>Something else that concerned investors in the report was the sales growth rate for Amazon Web Services (AWS). Revenues from the unit increased 17.5% year over year, but that was well below the 34% increase achieved by <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure, the No. 2 cloud infrastructure player. AWS is still much bigger than Azure, so its slower growth rate shouldn't be viewed as too alarming. Still, this is something to keep an eye on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告中另一个让投资者担忧的方面是亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的销售增长率。该部门的收入同比增长 17.5%，但远低于 <strong>微软</strong> Azure 的 34% 增长，后者是第二大云基础设施提供商。AWS 仍然比 Azure 大得多，因此其较慢的增长率不应被视为过于令人担忧。不过，这仍然是一个需要关注的点。</p>
</div><p>For now, Amazon is the largest cloud infrastructure provider in the world, with 30% of the market, according to Statista -- almost as much as Azure and No. 3 Google Cloud combined. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy constantly tells shareholders that 85% to 90% of client information technology spending is still for on-premises systems, but that that's going to shift over the next 10 to 15 years to the cloud. Amazon is investing in cloud development to keep its dominant position and benefit from that shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，亚马逊是全球最大的云基础设施提供商，市场份额为 30%，根据 Statista 的数据，几乎与 Azure 和第三大谷歌云的总和相当。亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）不断告诉股东，85% 到 90% 的客户信息技术支出仍然用于本地系统，但在未来 10 到 15 年内，这一支出将转向云计算。亚马逊正在投资云开发，以保持其主导地位并从这一转变中受益。</p>
</div><p>Five years from now, that should have started to become a reality, and the growth rate for AWS could accelerate, or at least hold steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年后，这一转变应该开始成为现实，AWS 的增长率可能会加速，或者至少保持稳定。</p>
</div><h2>Staking a position in AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在人工智能领域占据一席之地</h2>
</div><p>That brings us to artificial intelligence (AI), since Amazon's generative AI business operates under the AWS umbrella. Amazon is spending more than $100 billion in 2025 alone to develop its platform and offer something for everyone. It already offers a slew of services through its signature AI platform, Bedrock, and it's focusing on improving the top layer of the platform that offers ready-to-use solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将我们引向人工智能（AI），因为亚马逊的生成式 AI 业务在 AWS 的框架下运营。亚马逊仅在 2025 年就将投入超过 1000 亿美元来开发其平台，并为每个人提供服务。它已经通过其标志性的 AI 平台 Bedrock 提供了一系列服务，并专注于改善提供现成解决方案的平台顶层。</p>
</div><p>Jassy envisions a not-too-distant future where generative AI is built into every new app, and most of the development of those tools is going to take place in the cloud. That's why Amazon is developing a comprehensive platform, and that could lead to continued high growth in what is currently a triple-digit percentage growth business over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贾西设想了一个不久的将来，生成式 AI 将嵌入到每个新应用中，而这些工具的大部分开发将发生在云端。这就是为什么亚马逊正在开发一个综合平台，这可能会在未来五年内继续保持目前三位数百分比增长的业务的高增长。</p>
</div><h2>Becoming the biggest company in the world by sales</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成为全球销售额最大的公司</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is the second-largest company in the world by sales, behind retail giant <strong>Walmart</strong>. But it's close to overtaking it; Amazon's sales were $167.7 billion in the second quarter, while Walmart's were $165.6 billion in its most recently reported quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊是全球第二大公司，仅次于零售巨头 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。但它接近超越沃尔玛；亚马逊第二季度的销售额为 1677 亿美元，而沃尔玛最近报告的销售额为 1656 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>If sales growth continues at double-digit percentage rates, or even slips to the high single-digit percentages, and its operating income keeps climbing, it's hard to imagine Amazon stock not trading much higher in five years than it is today. As the company grows, its growth rates may come down, but as AI plays a larger role in its business, it could keep growth rates steady. Here are two potential scenarios:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果销售增长继续保持两位数的百分比，甚至滑落到高个位数的百分比，而其营业收入持续攀升，那么很难想象亚马逊的股票在五年后不会比今天高得多。随着公司的增长，其增长率可能会下降，但随着 AI 在其业务中扮演越来越重要的角色，它可能会保持增长率稳定。以下是两种潜在情景：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Scenario 1</th>
<th>Scenario 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Compound annual growth rate</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total annual revenue in 5 years</td>
<td>$1.03 trillion</td>
<td>$1.18 trillion</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>情景 1</th>
<th>情景 2</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年复合增长率</td>
<td>9%</td>
<td>12%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年后的总年收入</td>
<td>1.03 万亿美元</td>
<td>1.18 万亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>If its price-to-sales ratio remains constant, that growth would give Amazon a market cap of $3.7 to $4.2 billion, although its price-to-sales ratio will naturally fluctuate based on market sentiment. Those estimates, though, would equate to share price increases of somewhere between 60% and 85% over the next five years. Those are not earth-shattering numbers, and they only represent a couple of the many possibilities, but I think they offer a reasonable expectation of where Amazon stock could be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果其市销率保持不变，这一增长将使亚马逊的市值达到 3700 亿到 4200 亿美元，尽管其市销率自然会根据市场情绪波动。不过，这些估计将意味着未来五年股价上涨 60% 到 85% 之间。这些数字并不惊人，仅代表众多可能性中的一部分，但我认为它们提供了一个合理的预期，说明亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会处于何种位置。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 亚马逊第二季度业绩强劲，但关税不确定性影响市场反应。  
- 电子商务销售同比增长 11%，计划扩展送货服务。  
- 亚马逊云服务仍为市场领导者，未来五年有望加速增长。

五年后亚马逊的股票会达到什么水平？