<p>截至 8 月 12 日收盘，数据挖掘明星 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）的股价年初至今飙升了 147%——连续两年成为 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中表现最佳的股票。</p>
<p>显而易见的讨论点是，Palantir 在人工智能（AI）革命期间经历了巨大的增长。怀疑者指出，Palantir 的高估值是看跌论点的基石，因为该股票的交易水平接近于互联网泡沫时期的水平。虽然这确实是事实，但这些担忧并没有阻止该股屡次创下新高。</p>
<p>我认为围绕 Palantir 股票还有一个更微妙的细节，鲜有讨论。如果历史可以作为指导，它可能为一次史诗般的逆转铺平道路。</p>
<p>现在是卖出 Palantir 股票的时候吗？继续阅读以了解更多。</p>
<h2>重新定义 “昂贵” 的估值</h2>
<p>在 1990 年代末，互联网公司通常通过基于用户参与度的非财务指标来衡量。像 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>思科</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和雅虎这样的企业是根据浏览量和点击量而非销售和利润来估值的。在互联网狂热的巅峰期，这些互联网先驱的市销率（P/S）倍数在 30 到 40 之间——当时被认为是不可持续的高水平。</p>
<p>然而，Palantir 完全重新定义了下一代科技企业的估值。截至 8 月 12 日，Palantir 的市值接近 4440 亿美元——超过了 <strong>Salesforce</strong>、<strong>SAP</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong>，这些公司都是更成熟、多元化的企业。更引人注目的是，Palantir 的 P/S 为 137，完全处于自己的天际线——与其软件即服务（SaaS）同行相比，完全不在同一维度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市销率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>一些人认为，传统的估值方法如市销率或收益倍数并不能完全捕捉 Palantir 的真实价值或其全部潜力。相反，他们敦促投资者关注行业特定和财务工程化的指标，如 40 法则，以了解 Palantir 股票到底有多 “便宜”。</p>
<p>我认为这个论点是有缺陷的。有一个更具说明性的指标——几乎没有人谈论——让我觉得 Palantir 股票可能正与历史发生碰撞。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>“聪明的钱” 在试图告诉我们什么吗？</h2>
<p>下图跟踪了自 2020 年底首次公开募股（IPO）以来，机构投资者在 Palantir 股票上的买入活动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 机构投资者购买的股票数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>最初，在 2021 年初出现了一波 “聪明的钱” 买入，但在那年下半年遭遇了大量抛售。Palantir 的机构持股在公司几年前进入 AI 领域后再次上升。我认为正是这种动态让散户投资者错过了更大的图景，陷入了幻影之中。</p>
<p>正如上图所示，Palantir 股票的机构买入和卖出之间正在发生收敛。当净需求收紧——意味着买入不再明显高于卖出——时，施加的下行压力会更小，从而引发股价的急剧下跌。我认为上图所示的动态是 Palantir 股票的一个拐点。</p>
<p>此外，银行、财富管理公司、共同基金和对冲基金都有不同的优先事项。这些机构中的许多被要求持有大盘股以进行基准比较，而不是因为他们认为该股票被低估，或者因为他们对股票会在当前异常波动中上涨抱有某种 “坚定信念”。当一只股票相对于整体投资组合的权重异常高时，机构投资者通常会削减其持仓。这被称为投资组合再平衡。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron 谈特斯拉</p>
<p>&#34;我是最后一个进的，我会是最后一个出的。我不会在为客户卖出所有股票之前，个人卖出一股；我个人没有卖出一股&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- 特斯拉硅谷车主（@teslaownersSV）2025 年 3 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这种情况可以完美地通过上面的视频片段来解释，其中共同基金亿万富翁 Ron Baron 描述了他在即使是他最有信心的投资中，如 <strong>特斯拉</strong>，也要时不时获利的受托责任。如果一只股票变得过于膨胀，机构将利用这种市场流动性作为机制，以溢价将其股票出售给散户。这种动态更通俗地被称为让散户 “持有包袱”，当炒作叙事消退时。</p>
<p>虽然我不能确定 Palantir 股票的未来走向，但我认为基金投资者将会施压投资组合经理削减对 Palantir 的持仓，并从中获利，就像 Baron 所经历的那样。我认为这种压力将根植于对 Palantir 估值重置的预期，因为相对于同行，其定位过于火热。</p>
<h2>历史会重演吗？</h2>
<p>虽然历史并不总是完美的预测工具，但在这种情况下，我认为它是一个强有力的晴雨表。虽然几乎不可能选择卖出股票的完美时机，但我认为有一些引人注目的——且被忽视的——细节表明，Palantir 股票可能会比许多看涨者预期的更早地从当前价格点下跌。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies 的股票今年迄今已上涨 147%，成为标准普尔 500 指数中表现最佳的股票。然而，关于其高估值的担忧，市销率达到 137，令人联想到互联网泡沫时代。机构买卖动态暗示潜在的反转，因为净需求正在收紧。如果股票变得过于膨胀，机构投资者可能会削减其持仓，这将使散户投资者处于脆弱的境地。文章质疑在这些市场动态下，现在是否是出售 Palantir 股票的时机</p>

<p>As of the closing bell on Aug. 12, shares of data mining darling <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.14%) have skyrocketed by 147% year to date -- making it the top-performing stock in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> for two years running.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 8 月 12 日收盘，数据挖掘明星 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）的股价年初至今飙升了 147%——连续两年成为 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中表现最佳的股票。</p>
</div><p>The obvious talking point here is that Palantir has been on a monster run throughout the course of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Skeptics point to Palantir's lofty valuation as the cornerstone of the bear argument, as the stock trades at levels encroaching on dot-com-era bubble territory. While that's true, such concerns haven't stopped the stock from repeatedly notching new highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显而易见的讨论点是，Palantir 在人工智能（AI）革命期间经历了巨大的增长。怀疑者指出，Palantir 的高估值是看跌论点的基石，因为该股票的交易水平接近于互联网泡沫时期的水平。虽然这确实是事实，但这些担忧并没有阻止该股屡次创下新高。</p>
</div><p>I think there is a far subtler detail surrounding Palantir stock that rarely gets discussed. If history is any guide, it could set the stage for an epic reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为围绕 Palantir 股票还有一个更微妙的细节，鲜有讨论。如果历史可以作为指导，它可能为一次史诗般的逆转铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>Is now the time to sell Palantir stock? Read on to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在是卖出 Palantir 股票的时候吗？继续阅读以了解更多。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation that redefines what it means to be &#34;expensive&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>重新定义 “昂贵” 的估值</h2>
</div><p>During the late 1990s, internet companies were often measured by non-financial metrics based on user engagement. Businesses such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Cisco</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and Yahoo! were valued based on eyeballs and clicks rather than sales and profits. At the peak of dot-com euphoria, many of these internet pioneers traded at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples between 30 and 40 -- considered unsustainably high at the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1990 年代末，互联网公司通常通过基于用户参与度的非财务指标来衡量。像 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>思科</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和雅虎这样的企业是根据浏览量和点击量而非销售和利润来估值的。在互联网狂热的巅峰期，这些互联网先驱的市销率（P/S）倍数在 30 到 40 之间——当时被认为是不可持续的高水平。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has completely redefined how next-generation technology businesses are valued, though. As of Aug. 12, Palantir boasts a market cap of nearly $444 billion -- larger than <strong>Salesforce</strong>, <strong>SAP</strong>, and <strong>Adobe</strong>, which are far more mature, diversified businesses. Perhaps even more striking is that Palantir's P/S of 137 exists in its own stratosphere -- completely outside the dimensions of its software-as-a-service (SaaS) peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Palantir 完全重新定义了下一代科技企业的估值。截至 8 月 12 日，Palantir 的市值接近 4440 亿美元——超过了 <strong>Salesforce</strong>、<strong>SAP</strong> 和 <strong>Adobe</strong>，这些公司都是更成熟、多元化的企业。更引人注目的是，Palantir 的 P/S 为 137，完全处于自己的天际线——与其软件即服务（SaaS）同行相比，完全不在同一维度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8e5865234594026c778181460dce3662.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市销率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Some argue that traditional valuation methodologies such as P/S or earnings multiples don't fully capture Palantir's true value or its full potential. Instead, they urge investors to focus on industry-specific and financially engineered metrics such as the Rule of 40 to see just how &#34;cheap&#34; Palantir stock really is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人认为，传统的估值方法如市销率或收益倍数并不能完全捕捉 Palantir 的真实价值或其全部潜力。相反，他们敦促投资者关注行业特定和财务工程化的指标，如 40 法则，以了解 Palantir 股票到底有多 “便宜”。</p>
</div><p>I think this argument is flawed. There's a more telling metric -- and one that almost nobody talks about -- that makes me think Palantir stock could be on a collision course with history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这个论点是有缺陷的。有一个更具说明性的指标——几乎没有人谈论——让我觉得 Palantir 股票可能正与历史发生碰撞。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkwMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE2MDk1NzQ4My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829025%2Fgettyimages-1160957483.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is &#34;smart money&#34; trying to tell us something?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“聪明的钱” 在试图告诉我们什么吗？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below tracks buying activity in Palantir stock across institutional investors since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图跟踪了自 2020 年底首次公开募股（IPO）以来，机构投资者在 Palantir 股票上的买入活动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3fe71dc18da92b76bdec1224a4b6e127.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Shares Bought By Institutional Investors data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 机构投资者购买的股票数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Initially, there was a wave of &#34;smart money&#34; buying during early 2021, which was met with substantial selling during the latter half of that year. Palantir's institutional ownership picked up again following the company's splash into the AI realm a couple of years ago. It's this dynamic where I think the retail investing crowd is missing the bigger picture and buying into a mirage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，在 2021 年初出现了一波 “聪明的钱” 买入，但在那年下半年遭遇了大量抛售。Palantir 的机构持股在公司几年前进入 AI 领域后再次上升。我认为正是这种动态让散户投资者错过了更大的图景，陷入了幻影之中。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above illustrates, there is a convergence happening between the institutional buying and selling in Palantir stock. When net demand tightens -- meaning that buying is no longer materially higher than selling -- it takes less downside pressure to inspire a precipitous drop in share price. I see the dynamics illustrated in the chart above as an inflection point for Palantir stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如上图所示，Palantir 股票的机构买入和卖出之间正在发生收敛。当净需求收紧——意味着买入不再明显高于卖出——时，施加的下行压力会更小，从而引发股价的急剧下跌。我认为上图所示的动态是 Palantir 股票的一个拐点。</p>
</div><p>In addition, banks, wealth management firms, mutual funds, and hedge funds all have different priorities. Many of these institutions are required to hold large-cap stocks for benchmarking purposes, not because they think the stock is undervalued or because they carry some &#34;diamond hands&#34; conviction that shares are going higher despite abnormal volatility in the present. When a stock becomes an abnormally high weight relative to the overall portfolio, institutional investors often trim their exposure. This is known as portfolio rebalancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，银行、财富管理公司、共同基金和对冲基金都有不同的优先事项。这些机构中的许多被要求持有大盘股以进行基准比较，而不是因为他们认为该股票被低估，或者因为他们对股票会在当前异常波动中上涨抱有某种 “坚定信念”。当一只股票相对于整体投资组合的权重异常高时，机构投资者通常会削减其持仓。这被称为投资组合再平衡。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron on Tesla</p>
<p>&#34;I'm the last in, I'll be the last out. I won't sell a single share personally until I sell all the shares for clients; I have not sold a single share personally&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) March 12, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>Ron Baron 谈特斯拉</p>
<p>&#34;我是最后一个进的，我会是最后一个出的。我不会在为客户卖出所有股票之前，个人卖出一股；我个人没有卖出一股&#34; pic.twitter.com/EBT1esY14A</p>
<p>-- 特斯拉硅谷车主（@teslaownersSV）2025 年 3 月 12 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>This scenario can be perfectly explained in the video clip above in which mutual fund billionaire Ron Baron describes his fiduciary responsibility to take profits from time to time in even his highest-conviction positions, such as <strong>Tesla</strong>. If a stock becomes overinflated, institutions will use this market liquidity as a mechanism to sell their shares to retail at a premium. This dynamic is more colloquially referred to leaving retail &#34;holding the bag&#34; when the hype narrative fades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况可以完美地通过上面的视频片段来解释，其中共同基金亿万富翁 Ron Baron 描述了他在即使是他最有信心的投资中，如 <strong>特斯拉</strong>，也要时不时获利的受托责任。如果一只股票变得过于膨胀，机构将利用这种市场流动性作为机制，以溢价将其股票出售给散户。这种动态更通俗地被称为让散户 “持有包袱”，当炒作叙事消退时。</p>
</div><p>While I can't say for certain where Palantir stock is headed, my thought is that fund investors are going to pressure portfolio managers to trim exposure to Palantir and take some money off the table, much like what Baron experienced. I think the pressure will be rooted in the anticipation of a valuation reset for Palantir given its frothy positioning relative to peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我不能确定 Palantir 股票的未来走向，但我认为基金投资者将会施压投资组合经理削减对 Palantir 的持仓，并从中获利，就像 Baron 所经历的那样。我认为这种压力将根植于对 Palantir 估值重置的预期，因为相对于同行，其定位过于火热。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史会重演吗？</h2>
</div><p>Although history is not always a perfect predictor, I think it's a strong barometer in this case. While it's virtually impossible to pick the perfect time to sell a stock, I think there are some compelling -- and overlooked -- details that suggest Palantir stock could be headed lower from current price points sooner than many bulls expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然历史并不总是完美的预测工具，但在这种情况下，我认为它是一个强有力的晴雨表。虽然几乎不可能选择卖出股票的完美时机，但我认为有一些引人注目的——且被忽视的——细节表明，Palantir 股票可能会比许多看涨者预期的更早地从当前价格点下跌。</p>
</div>

History Shows That Palantir Stock's Monster Run Is Speeding Toward an Epic Crash -- and It All Might Come Down to 1 Detail That No One Is Talking About

- Palantir Technologies 股价年初至今上涨 147%，成为 S&P 500 的最佳表现股票。  
- 机构投资者的买卖动态显示出净需求收紧，可能导致股价大幅下跌。  
- 历史经验表明，当前高估值可能促使投资者减持 Palantir 股票。

历史表明，Palantir 股票的迅猛上涨正在加速走向一场史诗般的崩盘——而这一切可能都与一个无人提及的细节有关