<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) 股票一直是市场上最好的投资之一，几十年来超越了市场。想象一下，如果你在 20 年前投资了 10,000 美元在苹果股票上，而不是在 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上，今天你会有多少钱；随着时间的推移，这个差距会越来越大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>在过去五年中，它也超越了市场，但仅仅是微弱的优势。这在很大程度上是由于它今年的表现非常糟糕。</p>
<p>然而，在过去，苹果股票曾多次暴跌，有时甚至在低迷状态下持续数年，直到大幅反弹。例如，它在 2007 年达到高点，随后在抵押贷款危机后直到 2009 年才再次达到该高点。让我们看看苹果目前的情况以及五年后可能会在哪里。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="452" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>关税、iPhone 和人工智能</h2>
<p>目前有几个因素共同对苹果股票产生负面影响，通常在出现剧烈变化时会出现这些因素。它们主要集中在关税不确定性、iPhone 销售和人工智能（AI）上。</p>
<h3>关税不确定性对其造成压力</h3>
<p>市场一直担心苹果将如何受到关税的影响，因为它依赖于在中国制造产品。虽然它已经在很大程度上将供应链多元化到印度，但关税也影响到了那里，并似乎将其逼入了一个角落，最近宣布将在美国投资 6000 亿美元用于制造。</p>
<p>关税问题正在稳定，五年后应该只是一个小插曲。然而，随着其供应链的变化，可能会产生大规模的后续影响。更多的国内运营可能会导致许多今天无法预见的不同方向，例如拥有更高成本的劳动力，但关税率较低。</p>
<h3>iPhone 占据了销售的大部分</h3>
<p>还有人担心它的产品种类太少，这意味着其中任何一个产品的变化都可能对业务产生重大影响。iPhone 占据了近一半的总销售额，随着人工智能改变人们与技术的互动方式，iPhone 业务面临来自竞争对手在新领域创新的脆弱性。</p>
<p>苹果仍然拥有一个紧密的生态系统，用户对其产品非常忠诚，因此这并不是短期内的担忧。但在五年内，市场格局可能会大不相同，其他类型的设备可能会取代智能手机来执行许多操作。我认为即使在五年内，iPhone 也不会过时，但苹果需要对其主要产品进行一些重大改动，以保持客户购买新产品的意愿。</p>
<h3>人工智能进展缓慢</h3>
<p>首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财政第三季度的财报电话会议上对苹果智能的前景表示乐观（截至 6 月 28 日的期间），但到目前为止，这并没有给投资者留下深刻印象，他们觉得苹果在竞争中落后。</p>
<p>然而，正如库克所指出的那样，“在我们所做的一切中，我们都受到变革性创新的驱动，提供我们所创造的最卓越的产品和服务，我们对未来充满期待。” 我认为这总结了苹果对其消费品业务的态度。它并不像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 那样，试图为每个人提供一切。许多用户仍然记得其 “与众不同” 的广告活动，这仍然定义了其模式，投资者不应期望它以与其他公司相同的方式行事。如果这样做，那就不是苹果了。</p>
<h2>情况可能会好转，但程度如何？</h2>
<p>也就是说，苹果现在是全球市值第三大的公司，是否能在这个规模上继续超越市场是一个问题。它仍然提供价值，并可能继续增长，但其增长是有限的。例如，如果我们假设它在未来五年内的收入年复合增长率为 8%，这是考虑到其近期表现的一个宽松估计，并假设市销率保持不变，收入和股票价格将增加 47%。这只是众多可能性中的一种，新的产品或人工智能的进展可能会推动收入增长。</p>
<p>考虑到其近期的下跌，我预计它会收复损失，并很快变得更大更好。但在未来五年内，我不指望苹果能像过去那样快速增长。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果股票历史上一直是一个强劲的投资，几十年来表现优于市场。然而，由于关税不确定性、对 iPhone 销售的依赖以及人工智能进展缓慢，近期表现平平。尽管苹果正在多元化其供应链，并在消费者忠诚度方面保持领先，但在创新方面面临挑战。分析师预测未来五年可能实现 47% 的收入增长，但警告称增长可能无法与过去的表现相匹配。总体而言，预计苹果将从近期的损失中恢复，但增长速度可能不如以前那么快</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) stock has been one of the best-ever investments on the market, crushing the market over several decades. Consider how much money you'd have today if you'd invested $10,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago vs. in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>; the difference gets wider as you go back in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.55%) 股票一直是市场上最好的投资之一，几十年来超越了市场。想象一下，如果你在 20 年前投资了 10,000 美元在苹果股票上，而不是在 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上，今天你会有多少钱；随着时间的推移，这个差距会越来越大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/64a530baec02b05070846a6d0f24c734.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Total Return Level data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>It has outperformed the market over the past five years, too, but only by a hair's breadth. That's largely due to its performance this year, which has been dismal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年中，它也超越了市场，但仅仅是微弱的优势。这在很大程度上是由于它今年的表现非常糟糕。</p>
</div><p>However, there have been many times in the past when Apple stock plunged, and there were times it remained low even for several years before rebounding in a big way. For example, it hit a high in 2007 before the mortgage crisis and didn't reach it again until 2009. Let's see what's happening at Apple and where it might be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在过去，苹果股票曾多次暴跌，有时甚至在低迷状态下持续数年，直到大幅反弹。例如，它在 2007 年达到高点，随后在抵押贷款危机后直到 2009 年才再次达到该高点。让我们看看苹果目前的情况以及五年后可能会在哪里。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjcxNzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLWNyZWRpdC1jYXJkLWFuZC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827179%2Fa-person-holding-a-credit-card-and-a-mobile-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tariffs, iPhones, and AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税、iPhone 和人工智能</h2>
</div><p>There are several factors working together against Apple stock these days, as there usually are when there's a drastic change from the norm. They are mostly concentrated in tariff uncertainty, iPhone sales, and artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前有几个因素共同对苹果股票产生负面影响，通常在出现剧烈变化时会出现这些因素。它们主要集中在关税不确定性、iPhone 销售和人工智能（AI）上。</p>
</div><h3>Tariff uncertainty is weighing on it</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关税不确定性对其造成压力</h3>
</div><p>The market has been worried about how Apple will be impacted by tariffs, considering its reliance on getting its products made in China. It has already diversified its supply chain to include India to a large degree, but tariffs went there, too, and seem to have chased it into a corner where it recently announced that it would invest $600 billion in manufacturing in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场一直担心苹果将如何受到关税的影响，因为它依赖于在中国制造产品。虽然它已经在很大程度上将供应链多元化到印度，但关税也影响到了那里，并似乎将其逼入了一个角落，最近宣布将在美国投资 6000 亿美元用于制造。</p>
</div><p>The tariff issue is stabilizing, and should be a blip five years from now. However, there could be large-scale aftereffects as it changes its supply chain. Having more operations domestically could lead it in many different directions that are unforeseeable today, such as having a more expensive workforce but a lower tariff rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税问题正在稳定，五年后应该只是一个小插曲。然而，随着其供应链的变化，可能会产生大规模的后续影响。更多的国内运营可能会导致许多今天无法预见的不同方向，例如拥有更高成本的劳动力，但关税率较低。</p>
</div><h3>iPhones account for a large part of sales</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>iPhone 占据了销售的大部分</h3>
</div><p>There's also been concern that it has too few products, which means that any change in one of them could impact the business in a big way. iPhones account for nearly half of total sales, and as artificial intelligence changes how people engage with technology, the iPhone business is vulnerable to innovation in new areas from competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有人担心它的产品种类太少，这意味着其中任何一个产品的变化都可能对业务产生重大影响。iPhone 占据了近一半的总销售额，随着人工智能改变人们与技术的互动方式，iPhone 业务面临来自竞争对手在新领域创新的脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Apple still has a tight ecosystem with users who are loyal to its products, so it's not a near-term worry. But in five years, the landscape could look a lot different, with other kinds of devices taking the place of smartphones for many actions. I don't see iPhones becoming obsolete even in five years, but Apple would need to make some major changes to its premier products to keep customers buying new ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然拥有一个紧密的生态系统，用户对其产品非常忠诚，因此这并不是短期内的担忧。但在五年内，市场格局可能会大不相同，其他类型的设备可能会取代智能手机来执行许多操作。我认为即使在五年内，iPhone 也不会过时，但苹果需要对其主要产品进行一些重大改动，以保持客户购买新产品的意愿。</p>
</div><h3>Slow progress in AI</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>人工智能进展缓慢</h3>
</div><p>CEO Tim Cook gave an upbeat outlook about Apple Intelligence on the fiscal third-quarter earnings call (for the period ended June 28), but so far, it hasn't suitably impressed investors, who feel it's falling behind the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财政第三季度的财报电话会议上对苹果智能的前景表示乐观（截至 6 月 28 日的期间），但到目前为止，这并没有给投资者留下深刻印象，他们觉得苹果在竞争中落后。</p>
</div><p>However, as Cook noted, &#34;In everything we do, we're driven by transformative innovation, delivering the most exceptional products and services we've ever created, and we're especially excited about what's ahead.&#34; I think that sums up Apple's approach to its consumer goods business. It's not, for example, like <strong>Amazon</strong>, which tries to be everything to everyone. Many users still remember its &#34;Think Different&#34; campaign, which still defines its model, and investors shouldn't expect it to do things the same way as other companies. It wouldn't be Apple if it did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如库克所指出的那样，“在我们所做的一切中，我们都受到变革性创新的驱动，提供我们所创造的最卓越的产品和服务，我们对未来充满期待。” 我认为这总结了苹果对其消费品业务的态度。它并不像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 那样，试图为每个人提供一切。许多用户仍然记得其 “与众不同” 的广告活动，这仍然定义了其模式，投资者不应期望它以与其他公司相同的方式行事。如果这样做，那就不是苹果了。</p>
</div><h2>Things could get better, but how much?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>情况可能会好转，但程度如何？</h2>
</div><p>That said, Apple is now the third-largest company in the world by market cap, and it's questionable whether it can continue beating the market at this size. It still offers value and is likely to keep growing, but there's a cap on how much it can gain. For example, if we surmise it can grow its revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 8% over the next five years, which is a generous estimate considering its recent performance, and assume the price-to-sales ratio remains constant, revenue and the stock price would increase 47%. That's one possibility of many, and a new product or advances in AI could boost revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，苹果现在是全球市值第三大的公司，是否能在这个规模上继续超越市场是一个问题。它仍然提供价值，并可能继续增长，但其增长是有限的。例如，如果我们假设它在未来五年内的收入年复合增长率为 8%，这是考虑到其近期表现的一个宽松估计，并假设市销率保持不变，收入和股票价格将增加 47%。这只是众多可能性中的一种，新的产品或人工智能的进展可能会推动收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Considering its recent drop, I would expect it to recoup the loss and go on to be bigger and better sooner rather than later. But over the next five years, I wouldn't count on Apple gaining as quickly as it has in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到其近期的下跌，我预计它会收复损失，并很快变得更大更好。但在未来五年内，我不指望苹果能像过去那样快速增长。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 苹果股票在过去几十年中表现优异，超越市场。  
- 目前面临关税不确定性、iPhone 销售和人工智能等挑战。  
- 未来五年，苹果需进行重大产品调整以维持增长。  

五年后苹果的股票会达到什么水平？