<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) 最近发布了第二季度的财报，超出了分析师对收入和利润的预期。不仅如此，Upstart 还意外实现了盈利，提高了指导预期，报告中的几乎所有增长指标都表现强劲。</p>
<p>在财报发布后股价下跌 20% 后，Upstart 股票现在值得购买吗？让我们仔细看看这家贷款科技公司最近的表现，为什么股价在财报发布后下跌，以及未来可能存在的巨大上行潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>数据看起来 <em>非常</em> 强劲</h2>
<p>正如所提到的，Upstart 在第二季度的表现远超预期。贷款发放量同比增长 154%，达到 28 亿美元，尽管面临严峻的贷款环境。收入翻了一番，尽管 Upstart 自身预计第二季度会有小幅亏损，但该公司却给投资者带来了多年来首次实现 GAAP（公认会计原则）底线盈利的惊喜。</p>
<h2>为什么 Upstart 的股票下跌？</h2>
<p>需要明确的是，Upstart 的业务看起来 <em>强劲</em>。但这并不意味着股价下跌是没有原因的。有几个指标可能导致了这一变动：</p>
<ul>
<li>Upstart 的转化率从 19.1% 增加到 23.9%。这是指在 Upstart 上查询利率的人中最终获得贷款的比例。这可能表明 Upstart 正在显著放宽贷款标准以推动增长。</li>
<li>Upstart 在资产负债表上持有超过 10 亿美元的贷款，比第一季度末增加了约 25%。其中大部分是用于研究和开发（R&amp;D），但简单来说，资产负债表上的贷款越多，风险就越大。</li>
</ul>
<h2>从这里看有巨大的潜力</h2>
<p>Upstart 的核心业务是个人贷款，即使年化贷款量超过 100 亿美元，它在所有个人贷款量中仍然只占单一数字的市场份额。因此，它的核心业务仍然有很大的增长空间。</p>
<p>如果利率开始下降，这一点尤其成立。美国人有 1.2 万亿美元的信用卡债务，随着通过个人贷款再融资变得更加实惠，这可能是一个巨大的机会。</p>
<p>然而，Upstart 的两个新贷款领域——汽车贷款和住房贷款——最具前景。首先，汽车贷款市场的规模大约是个人贷款市场的 5 倍，而 Upstart 的汽车贷款量在过去一年中增长了六倍。</p>
<p>在住房贷款方面（这是两个领域中较新的），Upstart 的住房贷款发放量环比增长了 67%。这是一个巨大的机会——尤其是考虑到 Upstart 的重点：房屋净值信贷额度（HELOCs）。美国的房主拥有 35 万亿美元的房屋净值，创历史新高，随着利率下降，提取这些净值的需求非常旺盛。</p>
<p>尽管增长令人印象深刻，但汽车和住房贷款的发放量合计占 Upstart 业务的不到 7%。但如果当前的势头持续，这种情况不会持续太久。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买 Upstart 股票吗？</h2>
<p>即使在这次下跌之后，Upstart 也不是一只便宜的股票。它没有建立盈利记录，贷款环境仍然不佳，经济不确定性很大。在过去 12 个月的销售额超过 9 倍的情况下，Upstart 仍然以溢价交易。</p>
<p>然而，这是一份出色的财报。Upstart 不仅在收入和利润上超出了预期，还提高了指导预期，并在其新领域快速增长。我不愿意称 Upstart 为 “便宜货”，即使情况良好，它在可预见的未来可能仍会相当波动。因此，在决定投资之前，请记住这一点。</p>

UPST

<p>Upstart (UPST) 发布了强劲的第二季度财报，超出了分析师的预期，意外实现盈利并提高了指引。尽管财报发布后股价下跌了 20%，但公司在贷款发放量和盈利能力方面显示出显著增长。由于贷款风险增加和潜在的放宽贷款标准，市场上出现了一些担忧。Upstart 的核心个人贷款业务仍有增长空间，特别是在汽车贷款和房屋贷款方面。尽管股票仍处于溢价状态，但近期的表现暗示了潜在的上行空间，尽管预计会有波动</p>

<p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) recently released its second-quarter earnings results and beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines. Not only that, Upstart posted a surprise profit, raised guidance, and virtually every growth metric in the report looks strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST 0.45%) 最近发布了第二季度的财报，超出了分析师对收入和利润的预期。不仅如此，Upstart 还意外实现了盈利，提高了指导预期，报告中的几乎所有增长指标都表现强劲。</p>
</div><p>After a 20% post-earnings drop, is Upstart stock a buy now? Let's take a closer look at how the lending technology company has performed recently, why the stock might have dropped after earnings, and why there could be plenty of upside potential ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财报发布后股价下跌 20% 后，Upstart 股票现在值得购买吗？让我们仔细看看这家贷款科技公司最近的表现，为什么股价在财报发布后下跌，以及未来可能存在的巨大上行潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyODQvc3RvY2tzLWZhbGxpbmctMjAyMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829284%2Fstocks-falling-2022.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The numbers look <em>very</em> strong</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数据看起来 <em>非常</em> 强劲</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned, Upstart handily exceeded expectations in the second quarter. Loan origination volume grew by 154% year over year to $2.8 billion, and that's despite a challenging lending environment. Revenue more than doubled, and although Upstart itself called for a modest loss in the second quarter, the company surprised investors with its first quarter of GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) bottom-line profitability in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如所提到的，Upstart 在第二季度的表现远超预期。贷款发放量同比增长 154%，达到 28 亿美元，尽管面临严峻的贷款环境。收入翻了一番，尽管 Upstart 自身预计第二季度会有小幅亏损，但该公司却给投资者带来了多年来首次实现 GAAP（公认会计原则）底线盈利的惊喜。</p>
</div><h2>Why did Upstart's stock fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 Upstart 的股票下跌？</h2>
</div><p>To be perfectly clear, Upstart's business looks <em>strong</em>. But that doesn't mean the stock fell for no reason. There were a couple of metrics that could have caused the move:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，Upstart 的业务看起来 <em>强劲</em>。但这并不意味着股价下跌是没有原因的。有几个指标可能导致了这一变动：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Upstart's conversion rate increased sequentially from 19.1% to 23.9%. This is the percentage of people who check their rates on Upstart and end up getting loans. This could be an indicator that Upstart is significantly relaxing its lending standards to fuel growth.</li>
<li>Upstart is holding over $1 billion in loans on its balance sheet, about 25% more than at the end of the first quarter. Most of these are held for research and development (R&amp;D) purposes, but in a nutshell, more loans on the balance sheet means more risk.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Upstart 的转化率从 19.1% 增加到 23.9%。这是指在 Upstart 上查询利率的人中最终获得贷款的比例。这可能表明 Upstart 正在显著放宽贷款标准以推动增长。</li>
<li>Upstart 在资产负债表上持有超过 10 亿美元的贷款，比第一季度末增加了约 25%。其中大部分是用于研究和开发（R&amp;D），但简单来说，资产负债表上的贷款越多，风险就越大。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Massive potential from here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从这里看有巨大的潜力</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's core business is personal loans, and even with more than $10 billion in annualized volume, it still processes a single-digit market share of all personal loan volume. So, there could still be plenty of room to grow its core business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的核心业务是个人贷款，即使年化贷款量超过 100 亿美元，它在所有个人贷款量中仍然只占单一数字的市场份额。因此，它的核心业务仍然有很大的增长空间。</p>
</div><p>This is especially true if interest rates start to fall. Americans have $1.2 trillion in credit card debt, and as refinancing through personal loans gets more affordable, it could be a massive opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果利率开始下降，这一点尤其成立。美国人有 1.2 万亿美元的信用卡债务，随着通过个人贷款再融资变得更加实惠，这可能是一个巨大的机会。</p>
</div><p>However, it's Upstart's two newer loan verticals -- auto and home loans -- that are most promising. For starters, the auto loan market is roughly 5 times the size of the personal lending market, and Upstart's auto volume has grown sixfold over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Upstart 的两个新贷款领域——汽车贷款和住房贷款——最具前景。首先，汽车贷款市场的规模大约是个人贷款市场的 5 倍，而 Upstart 的汽车贷款量在过去一年中增长了六倍。</p>
</div><p>On the home loan side (which is the newer of the two), Upstart grew its home loan originations by 67% sequentially. And this is an enormous opportunity -- especially when it comes to Upstart's focus: home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Homeowners in the United States are sitting on $35 trillion in home equity, an all-time high, and as rates fall, there's a lot of pent-up demand for tapping into it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在住房贷款方面（这是两个领域中较新的），Upstart 的住房贷款发放量环比增长了 67%。这是一个巨大的机会——尤其是考虑到 Upstart 的重点：房屋净值信贷额度（HELOCs）。美国的房主拥有 35 万亿美元的房屋净值，创历史新高，随着利率下降，提取这些净值的需求非常旺盛。</p>
</div><p>Even though the growth has been impressive, auto and home loan originations combine for less than 7% of Upstart's business. But if the current momentum continues, that won't be the case for long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管增长令人印象深刻，但汽车和住房贷款的发放量合计占 Upstart 业务的不到 7%。但如果当前的势头持续，这种情况不会持续太久。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Upstart stock right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买 Upstart 股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Upstart isn't a cheap stock, even after this decline. It doesn't have an established record of profitability, the lending environment is still not great, and there's lots of economic uncertainty. At more than 9 times trailing-12-month sales, Upstart still trades at a premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在这次下跌之后，Upstart 也不是一只便宜的股票。它没有建立盈利记录，贷款环境仍然不佳，经济不确定性很大。在过去 12 个月的销售额超过 9 倍的情况下，Upstart 仍然以溢价交易。</p>
</div><p>However, this was a stellar earnings report. Not only did Upstart beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, but it also raised guidance and is growing rapidly in its new verticals. I'm hesitant to call Upstart a &#34;bargain,&#34; and it's likely to be rather volatile for the foreseeable future, even if things go well. So, keep that in mind before deciding to invest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这是一份出色的财报。Upstart 不仅在收入和利润上超出了预期，还提高了指导预期，并在其新领域快速增长。我不愿意称 Upstart 为 “便宜货”，即使情况良好，它在可预见的未来可能仍会相当波动。因此，在决定投资之前，请记住这一点。</p>
</div>

Upstart 的股票在财报发布后出现下跌——现在是否是一个极具吸引力的买入机会？