<p><strong>诺和诺德</strong>（NVO 2.88%）在 2021 年 6 月首次获得美国对其著名的体重管理药物 Wegovy 的批准。这标志着该公司在股市上强劲表现的开始。然而，这家总部位于丹麦的制药公司在过去一年中放弃了大部分这些收益；自 1 月以来，股价下跌了 40%。</p>
<p>尽管最近遭遇不幸，诺和诺德的股票仍可能为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。原因如下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f21217b33d3c1d77bd318adc0c701ff4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f21217b33d3c1d77bd318adc0c701ff4.png"/></p>
<p>NVO 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>体重管理的机会</h2>
<p>诺和诺德主要开发用于糖尿病的药物，近年来也专注于体重管理。由于其财务业绩未能达到市场的预期，导致其股票在过去一年中暴跌。同时，其在核心市场的最大竞争对手 <strong>礼来</strong> 获得了一些重要胜利。</p>
<p>然而，事情并不止于此。抗肥胖药物的市场可能会以惊人的速度增长。一些分析师估计，到 2035 年，该市场的价值将达到 1500 亿美元，而去年仅为 150 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0NDMvcGhhcm1hY2lzdC10YWxraW5nLXRvLXBhdGllbnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0NDMvcGhhcm1hY2lzdC10YWxraW5nLXRvLXBhdGllbnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>诺和诺德仍然拥有行业中最深厚的产品线之一。事实上，除了礼来，很难找到其他公司拥有更有前景的产品。最近，诺和诺德通过各种许可协议扩展了其产品线。</p>
<p>还有一件最近对其有利的事情：礼来的口服 GLP-1 候选药物 orforglipron 在三期研究中的表现远不如预期。这为诺和诺德追赶其长期竞争对手打开了大门。</p>
<p>该公司的口服 Wegovy 目前正在等待美国监管机构的批准。口服版本在三期临床试验中导致平均体重减少 13.6%，略高于 orforglipron 在其晚期研究中最近公布的 12.4%。</p>
<p>虽然在临床试验之间进行比较总是很困难，但数据至少表明口服 Wegovy 与 orforglipron 相当——但只有前者正在接近批准。诺和诺德还有另一种有前景的抗肥胖候选药物 amycretin，目前正在进行三期研究，该丹麦制药巨头正在测试其皮下和口服制剂。</p>
<p>为什么开发口服减肥药物的竞争如此重要？药丸的生产、储存和运输更容易且成本更低。因此，与注射型减肥疗法相比，口服版本将使制药公司能够以更具成本效益的方式生产，并扩大减肥疗法的覆盖面。此外，一些患者对针头非常反感。由于当前领先的体重管理药物是皮下注射的，口服选择可能会占据相当大的市场份额。</p>
<p>诺和诺德可能会率先进入市场。该公司可能会在 amycretin 上跟进这一胜利。</p>
<h2>价格合理</h2>
<p>让我们回到诺和诺德最近令人失望的财务业绩。在上半年，收入同比增长 16%，达到 1549 亿丹麦克朗（242 亿美元），净利润为 555 亿丹麦克朗（87 亿美元）。也许这并不是市场所期待的，但对于一家制药巨头来说，这仍然是优秀的业绩——大多数规模的制药公司都乐于以高单位数或低双位数的速度增长收入。</p>
<p>与此同时，股票的估值似乎合理，交易的前瞻性市盈率为 13 倍，而医疗行业的平均市盈率为 16.2 倍。</p>
<p>结论是什么？考虑到诺和诺德在体重管理方面强大的产品线以及持续带来稳定利润的产品组合，当前水平的诺和诺德看起来很有吸引力。尽管最近遭遇挫折，但该股票在长期内有望实现出色的业绩。</p>

诺和诺德公司

<p>诺和诺德公司的股票今年下跌了 40%，尽管其收入增长强劲，且在体重管理方面有着良好的产品管线。该公司在不断扩大的抗肥胖市场中处于有利位置，预计到 2035 年市场规模将达到 1500 亿美元。竞争对手礼来公司的近期挫折可能为诺和诺德提供了追赶的机会，尤其是其口服版 Wegovy 正在等待批准。该股票目前的估值合理，对于寻求长期收益的耐心投资者来说，是一个具有吸引力的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Novo Nordisk</strong>(NVO 2.88%) first earned U.S. approval for its now-famous weight management medicine Wegovy in June 2021. That marked the beginning of a strong run for the company on the stock market. However, the Denmark-based drugmaker has given up most of these gains over the past year; the stock is down by 40% since January alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>诺和诺德</strong>（NVO 2.88%）在 2021 年 6 月首次获得美国对其著名的体重管理药物 Wegovy 的批准。这标志着该公司在股市上强劲表现的开始。然而，这家总部位于丹麦的制药公司在过去一年中放弃了大部分这些收益；自 1 月以来，股价下跌了 40%。</p>
</div><p>Despite its recent misfortunes, Novo Nordisk's shares could still deliver strong returns to patient investors. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管最近遭遇不幸，诺和诺德的股票仍可能为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。原因如下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f21217b33d3c1d77bd318adc0c701ff4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f21217b33d3c1d77bd318adc0c701ff4.png"/></p>
<p>NVO Total Return Level data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVO 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>The weight management opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>体重管理的机会</h2>
</div><p>Novo Nordisk primarily develops medicines for diabetes and, in recent years, weight management. Its stock has plunged over the past year because its financial results haven't been as impressive as the market had hoped. It also faced some clinical setbacks, while its biggest rival in its core markets, <strong>Eli Lilly</strong>, earned some important wins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺和诺德主要开发用于糖尿病的药物，近年来也专注于体重管理。由于其财务业绩未能达到市场的预期，导致其股票在过去一年中暴跌。同时，其在核心市场的最大竞争对手 <strong>礼来</strong> 获得了一些重要胜利。</p>
</div><p>However, there's more to the story. The market for anti-obesity medications could grow at an incredibly rapid rate. Some analysts estimate that it will be worth $150 billion by 2035, compared to $15 billion last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，事情并不止于此。抗肥胖药物的市场可能会以惊人的速度增长。一些分析师估计，到 2035 年，该市场的价值将达到 1500 亿美元，而去年仅为 150 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk0NDMvcGhhcm1hY2lzdC10YWxraW5nLXRvLXBhdGllbnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829443%2Fpharmacist-talking-to-patient.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Novo Nordisk still has one of the deepest pipelines in the industry. In fact, it's challenging to find a company other than Eli Lilly that has more promising products. Recently, Novo Nordisk expanded its pipeline through various licensing deals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺和诺德仍然拥有行业中最深厚的产品线之一。事实上，除了礼来，很难找到其他公司拥有更有前景的产品。最近，诺和诺德通过各种许可协议扩展了其产品线。</p>
</div><p>Here's one more thing that recently broke its way: Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, did not perform nearly as well as expected in a phase 3 study. This opens the door for Novo Nordisk to catch up to its longtime rival.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一件最近对其有利的事情：礼来的口服 GLP-1 候选药物 orforglipron 在三期研究中的表现远不如预期。这为诺和诺德追赶其长期竞争对手打开了大门。</p>
</div><p>The company's oral version of Wegovy is currently awaiting approval from regulators in the U.S. The oral version led to an average weight reduction of 13.6% in a phase 3 clinical trial, slightly higher than the 12.4% that orforglipron recently posted in its late-stage study.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的口服 Wegovy 目前正在等待美国监管机构的批准。口服版本在三期临床试验中导致平均体重减少 13.6%，略高于 orforglipron 在其晚期研究中最近公布的 12.4%。</p>
</div><p>While it's always hard to compare across clinical trials, the data at the very least suggests that oral Wegovy is comparable to orforglipron -- but only the former drug is closing in on approval. Novo Nordisk also has yet another promising anti-obesity candidate in phase 3 studies, amycretin, which the Denmark-based pharmaceutical giant is testing in both subcutaneous and oral formulations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在临床试验之间进行比较总是很困难，但数据至少表明口服 Wegovy 与 orforglipron 相当——但只有前者正在接近批准。诺和诺德还有另一种有前景的抗肥胖候选药物 amycretin，目前正在进行三期研究，该丹麦制药巨头正在测试其皮下和口服制剂。</p>
</div><p>Why is the race to develop an oral weight loss option so important? Pills are easier and cheaper to manufacture, store, and transport. So, compared to injectable weight loss therapies, oral versions would allow drugmakers to produce them more cost-effectively and to expand the reach of weight loss therapies. On top of that, some patients are strongly averse to needles. Because the current leading weight management drugs are administered subcutaneously, an oral option would likely take a decent share of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么开发口服减肥药物的竞争如此重要？药丸的生产、储存和运输更容易且成本更低。因此，与注射型减肥疗法相比，口服版本将使制药公司能够以更具成本效益的方式生产，并扩大减肥疗法的覆盖面。此外，一些患者对针头非常反感。由于当前领先的体重管理药物是皮下注射的，口服选择可能会占据相当大的市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Novo Nordisk is likely to be first to market. And the company could follow up that win with another oral product in amycretin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诺和诺德可能会率先进入市场。该公司可能会在 amycretin 上跟进这一胜利。</p>
</div><h2>The price is right</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格合理</h2>
</div><p>Let's go back to Novo Nordisk's recent and disappointing financial results. In the first half of the year, revenue rose by 16% year over year to 154.9 billion Danish kroner ($24.2 billion), while net profit came in at 55.5 billion DKK ($8.7 billion). Perhaps that's not quite what the market expected to see, but these are still excellent results for a pharmaceutical giant -- most drugmakers of that size would be happy to grow their revenue at high-single-digit or low-double-digit rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们回到诺和诺德最近令人失望的财务业绩。在上半年，收入同比增长 16%，达到 1549 亿丹麦克朗（242 亿美元），净利润为 555 亿丹麦克朗（87 亿美元）。也许这并不是市场所期待的，但对于一家制药巨头来说，这仍然是优秀的业绩——大多数规模的制药公司都乐于以高单位数或低双位数的速度增长收入。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the stock appears reasonably valued, trading at 13 times forward earnings, compared to the healthcare industry's average of 16.2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，股票的估值似乎合理，交易的前瞻性市盈率为 13 倍，而医疗行业的平均市盈率为 16.2 倍。</p>
</div><p>What's the verdict? Novo Nordisk looks attractive at current levels, given the company's strong pipeline in weight management and a lineup that continues to deliver consistent profits. Despite recent setbacks, the stock is well-positioned to deliver excellent results over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是什么？考虑到诺和诺德在体重管理方面强大的产品线以及持续带来稳定利润的产品组合，当前水平的诺和诺德看起来很有吸引力。尽管最近遭遇挫折，但该股票在长期内有望实现出色的业绩。</p>
</div>

今年下跌 40% 的股票，值得买入并长期持有