<p>自 2022 年 10 月以来，<strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值已增加超过 4 万亿美元。为了更好地理解这一点，目前没有其他公司市值甚至达到 4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>这家图形处理单元（GPU）制造商的市值大幅上涨，源于一些大型科技公司每年在其芯片上的支出达到数千亿美元。四大超大规模云服务商预计今年将在人工智能基础设施上支出约 3800 亿美元，并且他们预计明年的支出将显著增加。</p>
<p>英伟达将在一段时间内成为这一支出增加的主要受益者，但这并不意味着其股票将继续上涨。市场价格是基于投资者对未来的预期，而对英伟达的预期仍然很高。</p>
<p>但另外两只人工智能股票看起来可能会超出投资者的预期，推动这两家公司在 2030 年前超过英伟达的市值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达能否继续上涨？</h2>
<p>人工智能支出的持续增长使投资者对英伟达能够保持快速销售增长的信心越来越强。</p>
<p>三大主要公共云服务提供商都重申了需求超过计算能力，这意味着他们将继续支出越来越多的资金以满足客户的需求。同时，英伟达正在尽可能快地销售芯片。这导致该公司第一季度的收入增长了 69%，调整后的收入增长了 59%。</p>
<p>但以这种速度继续增长的可能性不大。所有四大超大规模云服务商都在为自己的人工智能训练开发定制硅解决方案。<strong>微软</strong> 据报道计划在 2026 年底将其支出的很大一部分转向其 Maia300 芯片。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 0.38%）正在努力扩展其定制的 Meta 训练和推理加速（MTIA）芯片能够处理的人工智能工作负载。</p>
<p>此外，<strong>AMD</strong> 也开始在追赶英伟达方面取得进展，同时继续提供出色的性价比。</p>
<p>投资者应该预期，随着英伟达面临激烈的竞争以争夺数据中心服务器的市场份额，并与大数法则作斗争，销售增长将显著放缓。随着供需力量达到平衡，这家芯片制造商可能无法维持如此高的毛利率。这可能会对盈利增长产生压力。</p>
<p>但目前股票的交易价格超过 42 倍的预期收益，投资者似乎认为这些风险不会实现。我认为，更可能的是，这些风险将阻止英伟达继续以如此快速的速度超越市场，限制其未来的上涨空间。</p>
<p>如果投资者想购买一家大型科技公司的股票，以利用人工智能的增长，以下两家行业巨头提供了更好的价值和更大的上涨空间。事实上，我预计到 2030 年它们的市值都将超过英伟达。</p>
<h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.00%）是全球最大的公共云计算提供商，拥有亚马逊网络服务（AWS），使其成为英伟达最大的客户之一。虽然该公司在 2022 年生成式人工智能迅速崛起时措手不及，但管理层迅速赶上了竞争，这在一定程度上得益于其对 Anthropic 的投资。</p>
<p>管理层继续看到其人工智能服务的强劲需求，收入同比增长超过一倍。然而，AWS 的规模掩盖了这一强劲增长。</p>
<p>云服务部门在过去 12 个月内产生了 1160 亿美元的收入。这比其下一个竞争对手微软大约大 55%。但 AWS 的年增长率为 17%，与微软上个季度 39% 的云服务增长相比显得令人失望。尽管如此，亚马逊在竞争对手强劲增长的情况下，仍然基本保持了其市场份额。</p>
<p>更重要的是，AWS 的利润率非常强劲。过去 12 个月的营业利润率为 36.8%，高于一年前的 33.4%。虽然在第二季度有所下降，但这是由于股权补偿的时机所致。长期趋势显示利润率持续改善。</p>
<p>与此同时，亚马逊的零售业务本身也变得非常盈利。北美部门的营业利润率在上个季度攀升至 7%，而国际部门的利润率为 3.4%。两者的强劲收入增长均为 11%，这得益于高利润率广告收入增长 22%。</p>
<p>长期趋势有利于亚马逊各业务的稳定收入增长，尤其是在其高利润率业务（即 AWS 和广告）方面。这应该导致其盈利增长远高于平均水平。</p>
<p>随着其在 AWS 上的支出增长放缓，自由现金流预计将在本十年末达到新高。这为公司提供了更多的投资增长机会，正如它在历史上所做的那样。当前股票在小幅回调中看起来很有吸引力。</p>
<h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p>Meta 是另一家主要的英伟达客户，但与亚马逊不同，它仅将英伟达的芯片用于自身的人工智能需求。事实上，它可能在自身的人工智能需求上花费的比世界上任何其他公司都要多。Meta 的第二季度业绩清楚地表明了它为何愿意花费如此之多。</p>
<p>上个季度销售增长了 22%，营业利润率扩大了 5 个百分点。为了提供一些背景，这比 <strong>Snap</strong> 和 <strong>Pinterest</strong> 的收入增长速度更快，尽管在社交媒体广告中占据了更大的市场份额。Meta 的人工智能能力显然是其表现优异的原因。</p>
<p>人工智能使得广告和有机内容的推荐变得更好。因此，该公司投放了更多广告，并能够对每次广告展示收取更高的价格。同时，它还看到其生成式人工智能广告创作工具的强劲需求，这使得营销人员更容易创建和测试新想法。</p>
<p>人工智能可以解锁许多其他机会。这些机会包括在 WhatsApp 和 Messenger 中为企业提供的人工智能聊天机器人，这可能会推动 Facebook 和 Instagram 上点击消息广告的增加。</p>
<p>管理层表示，其内置于应用程序中的 Meta AI 聊天机器人目前拥有 10 亿月活跃用户，为其提供了另一个通过广告获利的渠道。它最近才开始在 WhatsApp 和 Threads 上展示广告。随着需求因其生成式人工智能工具而增加，这应该为其增长供应提供空间。</p>
<p>最后，Meta 在增强现实和虚拟现实的开发方面处于前沿。人工智能可以在一个也能感知周围环境的环境中解锁大量价值。该公司已经看到其内置人工智能的 Meta 眼镜的早期采用情况非常强劲。</p>
<p>考虑到企业价值约为未来息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预估的 16 倍，股票看起来非常有吸引力。尽管数据中心的折旧将对其利润率产生压力，但公司正在证明这些投资正在带来丰厚的收入增长，并在长期内释放出大量潜在利润。</p>

<p>文章预测，到 2030 年，两只人工智能股票，亚马逊和另一家未透露名称的公司，可能会超过英伟达的市值。由于对其芯片的高需求，英伟达的价值已经大幅上升，但竞争正在加剧，尤其是主要云服务提供商正在开发的定制硅解决方案。尽管英伟达的增长令人印象深刻，但文章指出，由于这些竞争压力，其股票可能不会继续以相同的速度上涨。作为领先的云服务提供商，亚马逊因其强劲的增长和盈利能力而受到关注，特别是在其 AWS 业务部门，这可能使其在未来获得更好的收益</p>

<p>Since October 2022, <strong>Nvidia</strong> has seen its value increase by more than $4 trillion. To put that into perspective, no other company is even worth $4 trillion today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月以来，<strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值已增加超过 4 万亿美元。为了更好地理解这一点，目前没有其他公司市值甚至达到 4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The huge surge in value for the maker of graphics processing units (GPUs) stems from a few big tech companies spending hundreds of billions on its chips every year. The four biggest hyperscalers are set to spend around $380 billion on AI infrastructure this year, and they have guided for significant steps up in spending next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家图形处理单元（GPU）制造商的市值大幅上涨，源于一些大型科技公司每年在其芯片上的支出达到数千亿美元。四大超大规模云服务商预计今年将在人工智能基础设施上支出约 3800 亿美元，并且他们预计明年的支出将显著增加。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is set to be the prime beneficiary of that increased spending for some time, but that doesn't mean the stock will continue to climb. Market prices are based on what investors expect in the future, and the expectations for Nvidia remain high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达将在一段时间内成为这一支出增加的主要受益者，但这并不意味着其股票将继续上涨。市场价格是基于投资者对未来的预期，而对英伟达的预期仍然很高。</p>
</div><p>But two other AI stocks look like they could surpass investor expectations, pushing both companies to exceed Nvidia's value by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但另外两只人工智能股票看起来可能会超出投资者的预期，推动这两家公司在 2030 年前超过英伟达的市值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829266%2Fgettyimages-ai-chip-on-a-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Can Nvidia keep climbing from here?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达能否继续上涨？</h2>
</div><p>Continued growth in AI spending is giving investors more and more confidence that Nvidia can keep up its torrid sales growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能支出的持续增长使投资者对英伟达能够保持快速销售增长的信心越来越强。</p>
</div><p>The three main public cloud providers all reiterated that demand exceeds computing capacity, which means they will continue to spend growing amounts to meet their customers' needs. Meanwhile, Nvidia is selling chips as fast as it can make them. That led to a 69% rise in revenue in the company's first quarter, and a 59% increase in adjusted income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三大主要公共云服务提供商都重申了需求超过计算能力，这意味着他们将继续支出越来越多的资金以满足客户的需求。同时，英伟达正在尽可能快地销售芯片。这导致该公司第一季度的收入增长了 69%，调整后的收入增长了 59%。</p>
</div><p>But it's unlikely to see growth continue at this pace. All four hyperscalers are working on custom silicon solutions for their own AI training. <strong>Microsoft</strong> is reportedly planning to shift a significant portion of its spending to its Maia300 chip in late 2026. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.38%) is working on expanding the AI workloads that its custom Meta Training and Inference Accelerating (MTIA) chips can handle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但以这种速度继续增长的可能性不大。所有四大超大规模云服务商都在为自己的人工智能训练开发定制硅解决方案。<strong>微软</strong> 据报道计划在 2026 年底将其支出的很大一部分转向其 Maia300 芯片。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 0.38%）正在努力扩展其定制的 Meta 训练和推理加速（MTIA）芯片能够处理的人工智能工作负载。</p>
</div><p>And on top of all of that, <strong>AMD</strong> is starting to show progress in catching up to Nvidia, while continuing to offer excellent price performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，<strong>AMD</strong> 也开始在追赶英伟达方面取得进展，同时继续提供出色的性价比。</p>
</div><p>Investors should expect a significant slowdown in sales as Nvidia faces fierce competition for its share of data center servers and it battles with the law of large numbers. As supply-demand forces reach equilibrium, the chipmaker might not be able to command such high gross margins, either. That could weigh on earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该预期，随着英伟达面临激烈的竞争以争夺数据中心服务器的市场份额，并与大数法则作斗争，销售增长将显著放缓。随着供需力量达到平衡，这家芯片制造商可能无法维持如此高的毛利率。这可能会对盈利增长产生压力。</p>
</div><p>But with the stock currently trading at more than 42 times forward earnings, investors seem to think those risks aren't going to materialize. I think it's more likely they will keep Nvidia from continuing to outperform the market at such a torrid pace, limiting how much more upside there is from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前股票的交易价格超过 42 倍的预期收益，投资者似乎认为这些风险不会实现。我认为，更可能的是，这些风险将阻止英伟达继续以如此快速的速度超越市场，限制其未来的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>If investors want to buy shares of a big tech company capitalizing on the growth of AI, the following two industry giants present better value with more upside. In fact, I expect they will both be worth more than Nvidia by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投资者想购买一家大型科技公司的股票，以利用人工智能的增长，以下两家行业巨头提供了更好的价值和更大的上涨空间。事实上，我预计到 2030 年它们的市值都将超过英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.00%) is the largest provider of public cloud computing in the world with Amazon Web Services (AWS), making it one of Nvidia's biggest customers. While the company was caught flat-footed as generative AI took off in 2022, management quickly caught up with the competition thanks in part to its investment in Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.00%）是全球最大的公共云计算提供商，拥有亚马逊网络服务（AWS），使其成为英伟达最大的客户之一。虽然该公司在 2022 年生成式人工智能迅速崛起时措手不及，但管理层迅速赶上了竞争，这在一定程度上得益于其对 Anthropic 的投资。</p>
</div><p>Management continues to see strong demand for its AI services, with revenue more than doubling year over year. However, AWS's scale has masked that strong growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层继续看到其人工智能服务的强劲需求，收入同比增长超过一倍。然而，AWS 的规模掩盖了这一强劲增长。</p>
</div><p>The cloud services segment generated $116 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. That's roughly 55% larger than its next closest competitor, Microsoft. But AWS's 17% year-over-year growth looks disappointing compared to Microsoft's 39% growth in cloud services last quarter. Nonetheless, Amazon has mostly kept its market share despite strong growth by its competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>云服务部门在过去 12 个月内产生了 1160 亿美元的收入。这比其下一个竞争对手微软大约大 55%。但 AWS 的年增长率为 17%，与微软上个季度 39% 的云服务增长相比显得令人失望。尽管如此，亚马逊在竞争对手强劲增长的情况下，仍然基本保持了其市场份额。</p>
</div><p>What's more important is that the margin profile on AWS is extremely strong. The operating margin of 36.8% over the last 12 months is up from 33.4% a year ago. And while it took a dip in the second quarter, that's due to the timing of share-based compensation. The long-term trend shows continued improvement in margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，AWS 的利润率非常强劲。过去 12 个月的营业利润率为 36.8%，高于一年前的 33.4%。虽然在第二季度有所下降，但这是由于股权补偿的时机所致。长期趋势显示利润率持续改善。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Amazon's retail business is becoming very profitable in its own right. The North American segment saw its operating margin climb to 7% last quarter while the international segment's margin came in at 3.4%. Strong top-line growth of 11% for both helped, which was bolstered by high-margin ad revenue growth of 22%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，亚马逊的零售业务本身也变得非常盈利。北美部门的营业利润率在上个季度攀升至 7%，而国际部门的利润率为 3.4%。两者的强劲收入增长均为 11%，这得益于高利润率广告收入增长 22%。</p>
</div><p>The long-term trends favor steady revenue growth across Amazon's businesses with particular strength in its high-margin operations (namely AWS and advertising). That should result in earnings growth well above average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期趋势有利于亚马逊各业务的稳定收入增长，尤其是在其高利润率业务（即 AWS 和广告）方面。这应该导致其盈利增长远高于平均水平。</p>
</div><p>And as its spending growth on AWS slows down, free cash flow should rise to new records by the end of the decade. That gives the company more opportunities to invest for growth, just as it has managed to do throughout its history. The stock currently looks attractive amid a small pullback in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着其在 AWS 上的支出增长放缓，自由现金流预计将在本十年末达到新高。这为公司提供了更多的投资增长机会，正如它在历史上所做的那样。当前股票在小幅回调中看起来很有吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p>Meta is another major Nvidia customer, but unlike Amazon, it only uses Nvidia chips for its own AI needs. In fact, it might be spending more on its own AI needs than any other company in the world. And Meta's second-quarter results are a clear example of why it's willing to spend so much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 是另一家主要的英伟达客户，但与亚马逊不同，它仅将英伟达的芯片用于自身的人工智能需求。事实上，它可能在自身的人工智能需求上花费的比世界上任何其他公司都要多。Meta 的第二季度业绩清楚地表明了它为何愿意花费如此之多。</p>
</div><p>Sales grew 22% last quarter, and its operating margin expanded 5 percentage points. For some perspective, that's faster revenue growth than both <strong>Snap</strong> and <strong>Pinterest</strong> despite being a much bigger force in social media advertising. Meta's AI capabilities are a clear reason for the outperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个季度销售增长了 22%，营业利润率扩大了 5 个百分点。为了提供一些背景，这比 <strong>Snap</strong> 和 <strong>Pinterest</strong> 的收入增长速度更快，尽管在社交媒体广告中占据了更大的市场份额。Meta 的人工智能能力显然是其表现优异的原因。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence has led to better recommendations for both advertisements and organic content. As a result, the company served up more ads and was able to command higher pricing per ad impression. Meanwhile, it's seeing strong uptake of its generative AI tools for ad creation, which makes it easier for marketers to create and test new ideas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能使得广告和有机内容的推荐变得更好。因此，该公司投放了更多广告，并能够对每次广告展示收取更高的价格。同时，它还看到其生成式人工智能广告创作工具的强劲需求，这使得营销人员更容易创建和测试新想法。</p>
</div><p>There are a number of other opportunities that AI could unlock. Those include AI chatbots for businesses in WhatsApp and Messenger, which could drive increased click-to-message ads in Facebook and Instagram.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能可以解锁许多其他机会。这些机会包括在 WhatsApp 和 Messenger 中为企业提供的人工智能聊天机器人，这可能会推动 Facebook 和 Instagram 上点击消息广告的增加。</p>
</div><p>And management has said its Meta AI chatbot built into its apps now has 1 billion monthly active users, giving it yet another surface to monetize with ads. It only recently started showing ads in WhatsApp and Threads. That should give it room to grow supply as demand increases due to its generative AI tools making advertising easier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层表示，其内置于应用程序中的 Meta AI 聊天机器人目前拥有 10 亿月活跃用户，为其提供了另一个通过广告获利的渠道。它最近才开始在 WhatsApp 和 Threads 上展示广告。随着需求因其生成式人工智能工具而增加，这应该为其增长供应提供空间。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Meta is at the forefront of development in augmented and virtual reality. AI can unlock a lot of value in an environment that's also aware of your surroundings. The company has already seen strong early adoption of its Meta Glasses with AI built in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Meta 在增强现实和虚拟现实的开发方面处于前沿。人工智能可以在一个也能感知周围环境的环境中解锁大量价值。该公司已经看到其内置人工智能的 Meta 眼镜的早期采用情况非常强劲。</p>
</div><p>Shares look very attractive with an enterprise value around 16 times forward estimates on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). While depreciation of its data centers will weigh on its margins, the company is proving the investments are paying off with very strong revenue growth and by unlocking a lot of potential profits in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到企业价值约为未来息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）预估的 16 倍，股票看起来非常有吸引力。尽管数据中心的折旧将对其利润率产生压力，但公司正在证明这些投资正在带来丰厚的收入增长，并在长期内释放出大量潜在利润。</p>
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Prediction: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia by 2030

- 自 2022 年 10 月以来，Nvidia 的市值增长超过 4 万亿美元。  
- 四大超大规模云服务商预计今年在 AI 基础设施上的支出将达到 3800 亿美元。  
- 预计到 2030 年，亚马逊和 Meta 的市值将超过 Nvidia。  

Motley Fool

亚马逊

英伟达

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

预测：到 2030 年，两只人工智能（AI）股票的市值将超过英伟达