<p><strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）在过去几年的令人印象深刻的增长简直不可思议。然而，围绕 Palantir 能否兑现股价中内嵌的高期望值也存在疑问。分析师们对 Palantir 的下跌呼声不绝于耳（包括我自己），原因在于其极端的估值。</p>
<p>这让我想起了另一只估值指标并不合理的股票：<strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA -1.64%）。然而，Tesla 继续无视传统的估值指标，并在一段时间内保持了较高的股价。</p>
<p>Palantir 会陷入同样的境地吗？还是说它的估值已经如此膨胀，以至于即将崩溃？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg3NjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWluLXNob2NrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg3NjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWluLXNob2NrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Tesla 和 Palantir 的增长看起来相似</h2>
<p>Tesla 股票的主要上涨始于 2020 年，从每股约 24 美元一路上涨到今天的约 340 美元。在此期间回报超过 1100%，这样的增长是少数股票能够匹配的。</p>
<p>Palantir 的增长同样迅速且令人印象深刻。其股票从约 16 美元上涨到 185 美元，获得了约 1000% 的收益。尽管在此期间未将收入增加 10 倍（或更多），但两家公司在极短的时间内都实现了令人瞩目的表现。</p>
<p>因此，大多数投资者认为它们的增长过快，随时可能回调。但这种分析忽略了投资论点中的一个重要方面。</p>
<h2>Palantir 和 Tesla 的机构持股比例低</h2>
<p>Tesla 股票在此期间表现良好的原因之一是个人投资者的持有。个人投资者的思维方式与机构投资者不同。各种基金和其他资金管理者更可能专注于传统的估值指标。如果他们的贴现现金流（DCF）模型不奏效，他们就会完全避开该股票。</p>
<p>然而，像 Tesla 和 Palantir 这样的公司打破了传统金融所教的模式，这可能使这些模型的假设失效。</p>
<p>个人投资者更有可能采取长期视角，并注意到 Tesla 的技术和愿景可能使其在长期内实现巨大的增长。这显示了两者在方法上的巨大差异：机构投资者利用历史指标来预测未来，而个人投资者则观察世界，看看未来可能的发展方向。</p>
<p>这种差异使得像 Tesla 和 Palantir 这样的股票得以蓬勃发展，导致市场表现大幅超越，因为个人投资者对传统估值指标的关注较少。</p>
<p>无论你认为这种方法对这两只股票是否正确都无关紧要；这就是现实情况。</p>
<p>幸运的是，我们可以访问一个衡量机构持有的流通股比例的指标。对于 Tesla，约 49% 的流通股由机构持有。与其他科技巨头相比，这个比例相对较低。作为比较，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 各自约有 78% 的流通股由机构投资者持有。</p>
<p>这差异相当明显，显示出个人投资者而非大型机构对 Tesla 的持有比例。Palantir 的机构持股比例与 Tesla 相似，约有 53% 的流通股由机构持有。与 Palantir 市值最接近的两家公司 <strong>Costco</strong> 和 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 相比，这两家公司的机构持股比例分别为 69% 和 67%。</p>
<p>由于 Palantir 的机构持股比例与 Tesla 相似，该股票可能会继续以一些人认为不理性的方式表现。投资 Palantir 的决定在于你，但投资者需要意识到，在 Tesla 经历了大幅上涨后，该股票变得极其波动。Palantir 可能正接近这一点，但我们将在未来几年内得知答案。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir 的股票经历了显著的上涨，类似于特斯拉，近年来涨幅约为 1000%。然而，关于其高估值的担忧依然存在，分析师预测可能会出现下跌。这两家公司都拥有较低的机构持股比例，Palantir 的机构持股约为 53%，而特斯拉为 49%。这表明，通常采取长期投资视角的个人投资者正在推动股票表现。投资者应保持谨慎，因为 Palantir 可能面临类似于特斯拉在上涨后经历的更大波动</p>

<p><strong>Palantir</strong>'s (PLTR -2.14%) impressive rise over the past few years has been nothing short of incredible. Still, there have also been questions surrounding Palantir's ability to deliver on the high expectations baked into the stock price. There has been no shortage of analysts calling for Palantir's fall (myself included) due to extreme valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -2.14%）在过去几年的令人印象深刻的增长简直不可思议。然而，围绕 Palantir 能否兑现股价中内嵌的高期望值也存在疑问。分析师们对 Palantir 的下跌呼声不绝于耳（包括我自己），原因在于其极端的估值。</p>
</div><p>This reminds me of another stock whose valuation metrics do not make a lot of sense: <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -1.64%). However, Tesla has continued to defy traditional valuation metrics and has stayed at an elevated stock price for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我想起了另一只估值指标并不合理的股票：<strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA -1.64%）。然而，Tesla 继续无视传统的估值指标，并在一段时间内保持了较高的股价。</p>
</div><p>Could Palantir fall into this same realm? Or is it so inflated that a crash is coming?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 会陷入同样的境地吗？还是说它的估值已经如此膨胀，以至于即将崩溃？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjg3NjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItc2NyZWVuLWluLXNob2NrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F828764%2Fperson-looking-at-computer-screen-in-shock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla and Palantir's rise look similar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Tesla 和 Palantir 的增长看起来相似</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock's primary rise started in 2020, increasing from about $24 per share all the way to around today's $340 per share. It returned over 1,100% over that time frame, resulting in a rise that few stocks have ever matched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tesla 股票的主要上涨始于 2020 年，从每股约 24 美元一路上涨到今天的约 340 美元。在此期间回报超过 1100%，这样的增长是少数股票能够匹配的。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's rise has similarly been rapid and impressive. Its stock rose from around $16 to $185 at the time of this writing, resulting in about 1,000% gains. Both companies delivered impressive performance in a very short amount of time, despite not increasing their revenue by 10 times (or more) over that time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的增长同样迅速且令人印象深刻。其股票从约 16 美元上涨到 185 美元，获得了约 1000% 的收益。尽管在此期间未将收入增加 10 倍（或更多），但两家公司在极短的时间内都实现了令人瞩目的表现。</p>
</div><p>As a result, most investors assume that they've grown too fast and are ripe for a pullback. But this analysis excludes a significant aspect of the investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，大多数投资者认为它们的增长过快，随时可能回调。但这种分析忽略了投资论点中的一个重要方面。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir and Tesla have low institutional ownership</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 和 Tesla 的机构持股比例低</h2>
</div><p>One of the reasons why Tesla's stock did so well over that time frame is that individual investors owned it. Individual investors don't have the same mindset as institutions. Various funds and other money managers are likely more devoted to traditional valuation metrics. If their discounted cash flow (DCF) models don't work out, then they avoid the stock entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tesla 股票在此期间表现良好的原因之一是个人投资者的持有。个人投资者的思维方式与机构投资者不同。各种基金和其他资金管理者更可能专注于传统的估值指标。如果他们的贴现现金流（DCF）模型不奏效，他们就会完全避开该股票。</p>
</div><p>However, companies like Tesla and Palantir break the mold of what traditional finance teaches, which can invalidate the assumptions that go into these models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，像 Tesla 和 Palantir 这样的公司打破了传统金融所教的模式，这可能使这些模型的假设失效。</p>
</div><p>Individual investors are far more likely to take a long-term view and note that Tesla's technology and vision could allow it to deliver massive growth over the long term. This illustrates a huge difference in approaches: Institutional investors utilize trailing metrics to predict the future, while individual investors look at the world and see where it could go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>个人投资者更有可能采取长期视角，并注意到 Tesla 的技术和愿景可能使其在长期内实现巨大的增长。这显示了两者在方法上的巨大差异：机构投资者利用历史指标来预测未来，而个人投资者则观察世界，看看未来可能的发展方向。</p>
</div><p>This difference has allowed stocks like Tesla and Palantir to thrive, leading to massive market outperformance as individual investors are less concerned with traditional valuation measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种差异使得像 Tesla 和 Palantir 这样的股票得以蓬勃发展，导致市场表现大幅超越，因为个人投资者对传统估值指标的关注较少。</p>
</div><p>Whether you think that's a correct approach to these two stocks or not is irrelevant; it's what's going on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论你认为这种方法对这两只股票是否正确都无关紧要；这就是现实情况。</p>
</div><p>Luckily, we have access to a metric that measures the percentage of shares outstanding that institutions own. For Tesla, about 49% of shares outstanding are institutionally owned. Compared to other tech giants, this is rather low. For comparison, <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> each have about 78% of shares outstanding owned by institutional investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幸运的是，我们可以访问一个衡量机构持有的流通股比例的指标。对于 Tesla，约 49% 的流通股由机构持有。与其他科技巨头相比，这个比例相对较低。作为比较，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 各自约有 78% 的流通股由机构投资者持有。</p>
</div><p>That's quite the difference and shows how much individuals, rather than large institutions, own Tesla. Palantir is in the same territory as Tesla, with about 53% of shares owned by institutions. Compared to the two closest companies in market cap to Palantir, <strong>Costco</strong> and <strong>ExxonMobil</strong>, these two have 69% and 67% of shares owned by institutional investors, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这差异相当明显，显示出个人投资者而非大型机构对 Tesla 的持有比例。Palantir 的机构持股比例与 Tesla 相似，约有 53% 的流通股由机构持有。与 Palantir 市值最接近的两家公司 <strong>Costco</strong> 和 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 相比，这两家公司的机构持股比例分别为 69% 和 67%。</p>
</div><p>Because Palantir has a similarly small amount of shares owned by institutional investors as Tesla, the stock will likely continue to perform in a manner that some may consider irrational. The decision to invest in Palantir is up to you, but investors need to be aware that after Tesla's massive run, the stock became incredibly volatile. Palantir could be approaching that point, but we'll find out in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Palantir 的机构持股比例与 Tesla 相似，该股票可能会继续以一些人认为不理性的方式表现。投资 Palantir 的决定在于你，但投资者需要意识到，在 Tesla 经历了大幅上涨后，该股票变得极其波动。Palantir 可能正接近这一点，但我们将在未来几年内得知答案。</p>
</div>

Is Palantir the Next Tesla?

- Palantir 股价在过去几年中上涨约 1,000%，引发市场关注。  
- 与特斯拉相似，Palantir 的机构持股比例较低，约为 53%。  
- 投资者需警惕 Palantir 可能面临的波动性风险。  

Palantir 会成为下一个特斯拉吗？