<p>根据最新报告，中国与美国之间的集装箱运输活动再次下滑，交通量达到两年来的最低水平。</p>
<h2>两年来的最低读数</h2>
<p>周日，在 X 平台上，The Kobeissi Letter 分享了 <strong>Apollo Global Management</strong> 关于中美之间集装箱运输的最新数据，指出其已降至自 5 月以来的最低水平，并且是 “过去两年来的最低读数之一”。</p>
<p>该帖子还指出了这一放缓的急剧程度，称 “过去一个月的运输量下降了 40%”，突显出贸易流动的显著下降，尽管 “中美关税休战仍在继续，并已延长 90 天。”</p>
<p>它表示，“实际上，根据彭博社的数据，美国对中国商品的平均关税率仍然高达 55%”，这被视为导致这一下降的关键原因。</p>
<p>该帖子最后指出，“中美贸易正在放缓”，附带的图表显示运输能力和使用能力同步下降。</p>
<h2>关税对供应链造成严重影响</h2>
<p>多伦多大学经济学家 <strong>William Sheehan</strong> 上周强调了来自中国的货物大幅减少的影响。引用 <strong>Paul Krugman</strong> 在《滚石》上的一篇专栏，Sheehan 指出，这一下降意味着将减少超过 58,000 个集装箱和 700,000 个卡车装载量。</p>
<p>电子商务平台如 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> AMZN、<strong>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</strong> BABA 和 <strong>PDD Holdings Inc.</strong> PDD 正在为即将结束的免税豁免做准备，该豁免允许对价值低于 800 美元的低价值商品进行免税进口，预计将于 8 月 29 日结束。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Shopify Inc.</strong> SHOP、<strong>Commerce.com Inc.</strong> CMRC 和 <strong>Lightspeed Commerce Inc.</strong> LSPD 这样的平台最容易受到这一变化的影响，因为它们依赖于较小的商家和进口商。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Walmart Inc.</strong> WMT、<strong>Target Corp.</strong> TGT 和 <strong>Nike Inc.</strong> NKE 这样的较大零售商对免税豁免的依赖较小，主要用于直接面向消费者的运输，但来自中国的整体货物减少无疑令人担忧。</p>
<p>在 5 月，洛杉矶港作为美国最大的进口门户，警告货物量呈下降趋势。</p>
<p>根据港口执行董事 <strong>Gene Seroka</strong> 的说法，即使是关税的休战和临时减免也不足以逆转当前的局面，因为他说，“你不会以 30% 的关税提前装载货物”，指的是降低的关税。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock.com 上的工程师工作室</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>特朗普的关税风暴可能很快会影响美国消费者：原因在这里</strong></li>
</ul>

<p>中美之间的集装箱运输活动已降至两年来的最低水平，尽管达成了关税休战，但过去一个月的运输量下降了 40%。美国对中国商品的平均关税税率仍维持在 55%，这加剧了放缓的趋势。经济学家警告称，这将对供应链产生重大影响，电子商务平台如亚马逊和阿里巴巴也面临即将到来的免税进口豁免变化带来的挑战。洛杉矶港也报告了货物运输量下降，显示出持续的贸易问题</p>

<p>Container shipping activity between China and the United States is sliding again, with traffic hitting its weakest levels in two years, according to the latest reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最新报告，中国与美国之间的集装箱运输活动再次下滑，交通量达到两年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><h2>Lowest Reading In 2 Years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两年来的最低读数</h2>
</div><p>On Sunday, in a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter, shared the latest figures from <strong>Apollo Global Management</strong> on container shipping between China and the U.S., noting that it has dropped to its lowest level since May, and is also “one of the lowest readings in 2 years.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周日，在 X 平台上，The Kobeissi Letter 分享了 <strong>Apollo Global Management</strong> 关于中美之间集装箱运输的最新数据，指出其已降至自 5 月以来的最低水平，并且是 “过去两年来的最低读数之一”。</p>
</div><p>The post also notes the sharpness of this slowdown, saying, “Shipping volumes have declined by 40% over the last month,” highlighting a significant drop in trade flows, which comes “despite the ongoing US-China tariff truce, which was extended for another 90 days.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该帖子还指出了这一放缓的急剧程度，称 “过去一个月的运输量下降了 40%”，突显出贸易流动的显著下降，尽管 “中美关税休战仍在继续，并已延长 90 天。”</p>
</div><p>It says that “in reality, average US tariff rates on Chinese goods still stand at 55%, according to Bloomberg,” referring to it as a key reason behind this decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它表示，“实际上，根据彭博社的数据，美国对中国商品的平均关税率仍然高达 55%”，这被视为导致这一下降的关键原因。</p>
</div><p>The post concludes by saying, “US-China trade is slowing,” with the accompanying chart showing shipping capacity and used capacity dropping in tandem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该帖子最后指出，“中美贸易正在放缓”，附带的图表显示运输能力和使用能力同步下降。</p>
</div><h2>Tariffs Wreaking Havoc On Supply Chains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税对供应链造成严重影响</h2>
</div><p>University of Toronto economist <strong>William Sheehan</strong> highlighted the ramifications of this major drop in shipments from China last week. Referring to a Rolling Stone column by <strong>Paul Krugman</strong>, Sheehan notes that this dip would mean over 58,000 fewer containers and 700,000 fewer truckloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多伦多大学经济学家 <strong>William Sheehan</strong> 上周强调了来自中国的货物大幅减少的影响。引用 <strong>Paul Krugman</strong> 在《滚石》上的一篇专栏，Sheehan 指出，这一下降意味着将减少超过 58,000 个集装箱和 700,000 个卡车装载量。</p>
</div><p>E-commerce platforms such as <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> AMZN, <strong>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</strong> BABA and <strong>PDD Holdings Inc.</strong> PDD are bracing for the end of de-minimis exemptions, which allowed for the duty-free import of low-value goods under $800, which is set to come to an end on August 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务平台如 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> AMZN、<strong>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</strong> BABA 和 <strong>PDD Holdings Inc.</strong> PDD 正在为即将结束的免税豁免做准备，该豁免允许对价值低于 800 美元的低价值商品进行免税进口，预计将于 8 月 29 日结束。</p>
</div><p>Platforms such as <strong>Shopify Inc.</strong> SHOP, <strong>Commerce.com Inc.</strong> CMRC and <strong>Lightspeed Commerce Inc.</strong> LSPD are most exposed to this change, given their reliance on smaller merchants and importers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Shopify Inc.</strong> SHOP、<strong>Commerce.com Inc.</strong> CMRC 和 <strong>Lightspeed Commerce Inc.</strong> LSPD 这样的平台最容易受到这一变化的影响，因为它们依赖于较小的商家和进口商。</p>
</div><p>Larger retailers such as <strong>Walmart Inc.</strong> WMT, <strong>Target Corp.</strong> TGT and <strong>Nike Inc.</strong> NKE aren’t that exposed to de-minimis exemptions, which is primarily used for direct-to-consumer shipments, but the drop in shipments from China as a whole is certainly cause for concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Walmart Inc.</strong> WMT、<strong>Target Corp.</strong> TGT 和 <strong>Nike Inc.</strong> NKE 这样的较大零售商对免税豁免的依赖较小，主要用于直接面向消费者的运输，但来自中国的整体货物减少无疑令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>In May, the port of Los Angeles, the largest import gateway into the U.S., warned that cargo volumes have been trending downward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月，洛杉矶港作为美国最大的进口门户，警告货物量呈下降趋势。</p>
</div><p>According to the port's executive director, <strong>Gene Seroka</strong>, even the truce and temporary reprieves on the tariffs aren’t enough to reverse what’s happening, because he says, “you’re not going to be frontloading at 30%,” referring to the reduced tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据港口执行董事 <strong>Gene Seroka</strong> 的说法，即使是关税的休战和临时减免也不足以逆转当前的局面，因为他说，“你不会以 30% 的关税提前装载货物”，指的是降低的关税。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo Courtesy: Engineer studio on Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock.com 上的工程师工作室</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Trump’s Tariff Storm Could Soon Hit American Consumers: Here’s Why</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>特朗普的关税风暴可能很快会影响美国消费者：原因在这里</strong></li>
</ul>
</div>

Trump's Tariff Ceasefire Is Failing To Stop US-China Trade Collapse: Container Ship Traffic Hits Lowest Readings In 2 Years

- 中美之间的集装箱运输活动降至两年来最低水平。  
- 运输量在过去一个月下降了 40%，尽管关税休战延长。  
- 预计将减少 58,000 个集装箱和 700,000 个卡车运输量。  

特朗普的关税停火未能阻止美中贸易的崩溃：集装箱船运输量达到两年来的最低水平