<p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>“对于股票投资者来说，在进入杰克逊霍尔之前，可能明智的做法是减持一些头寸，” Renaissance Macro 的 Neil Dutta 表示。</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周五发言。</p>
<p>本周晚些时候，经济学家、中央银行官员和商业媒体成员将齐聚怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔，参加堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的年度杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会。</p>
<p>此次聚会已成为美联储观察者夏季日历中的亮点，也是经济学界名流的常年目的地。对于投资者来说，主要活动通常在周五进行，美联储主席发表的演讲会实时向金融市场参与者播出。</p>
<p>鲍威尔定于周五上午 10 点（东部时间）发言。对一些人来说，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的发言可能会唤起不愉快的回忆。早在 2022 年，他在坚持美联储致力于通过保持高利率来压制通胀时，阻止了一场猛烈的熊市反弹，即使这种做法给美国消费者和企业带来了痛苦。</p>
<p>参见：鲍威尔会在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中对九月降息的希望进行反驳吗？</p>
<p>但根据 Bespoke Investment Group 的一组策略师的说法，标准普尔 500 指数在那一周下跌 4% 并不代表市场在杰克逊霍尔周的历史反应。</p>
<p>自 2009 年以来，这一周通常为股票投资者带来正回报，Bespoke 发现标准普尔 500 指数的中位数涨幅为 0.8%。自那以来，股票仅有五次在这一周结束时下跌，总共 16 个例子。只有两次的下跌超过 1%：分别是在 2019 年和 2022 年。</p>
<p>国债的走势通常也呈上升趋势，尽管其回报并没有股票投资者经历的那么强劲。Bespoke 团队发现，iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF TLT 在杰克逊霍尔周的中位回报为 +0.2%。国债收益率在价格上涨时下降。</p>
<p>抛开历史表现数据，Bespoke 团队表示，投资者似乎在为这次可能的波动做好准备，理由充分。鲍威尔面临来自白宫的巨大压力，要求他在美联储下次会议上于九月降息。</p>
<p>到目前为止，美联储政策制定者在是否在此时开始再次降息的问题上似乎越来越分歧。早在七月，美联储董事会的两名成员与其他成员意见相左，投票支持将美联储政策利率目标下调 25 个基点，这是自 1993 年以来董事会成员中最多的异议。一个轮换的地区联邦储备分行行长小组也有权在利率政策上投票，连同美联储华盛顿总部的董事会成员。</p>
<p>美联储基金期货交易者正在为九月降息定价，市场基于概率的数据显示，周一加息的可能性超过 80%。一些人想知道鲍威尔是否会在周五对这些预期进行反驳。但即使鲍威尔暗示美联储可能会继续降息，周五的结果对投资者来说可能是个两难境地。</p>
<p>Renaissance Macro 的经济研究负责人 Neil Dutta 表示，他的宏观经济模型强烈表明美联储的政策利率应该降低。但如果鲍威尔暗示利率应该下降，他可能需要承认劳动力市场实际上正在减弱。投资者已经收到了很多关于这一方面的令人失望的数据——七月的就业报告糟糕到特朗普总统甚至解雇了劳工统计局局长，声称没有证据表明数据被操纵。</p>
<p>但直接听到鲍威尔本人对劳动力市场的担忧，可能会帮助金融市场参与者更好地理解这一点。</p>
<p>“对于股票投资者来说，在进入杰克逊霍尔之前，可能明智的做法是减持一些头寸，” Dutta 在与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中表示。股票估值飙升至历史高位，可能使股票在任何被认为的失望面前变得脆弱。</p>
<p>需要注意：没有这个杰克逊霍尔信号，股票可能在秋季下滑 15%，一位策略师表示。</p>
<p>当然，杰克逊霍尔并不是本周唯一可能影响市场的事件。投资者将听到多位高级美联储官员的发言，收到美联储最新政策会议的纪要，并消化一些主要美国零售商的企业财报。</p>
<p>主要指数在本周开局时表现疲软，标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 和纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 略微下跌，而道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 在最近的交易中变化不大。</p>
<p>不要错过：投资者正在涌入建筑商股票。杰克逊霍尔会证明他们是错的吗？</p>
<p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>股票通常在美联储杰克逊霍尔会议周上涨，但今年可能会有所不同。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将发表的讲话可能会影响市场预期，特别是关于潜在降息的预期。历史数据显示，自 2009 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在这一周的中位数涨幅为 0.8%，但投资者正准备迎接波动。分析师建议，由于股市估值较高，投资者在活动前减少风险敞口可能是明智之举，因为鲍威尔传递的失望信号可能导致市场下跌</p>

<p>By Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>'For equity investors, it might be wise to take some chips off the table heading into Jackson Hole,' says Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于股票投资者来说，在进入杰克逊霍尔之前，可能明智的做法是减持一些头寸，” Renaissance Macro 的 Neil Dutta 表示。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周五发言。</p>
</div><p>Later this week, economists, central bankers and members of the business press will gather in Jackson Hole, Wyo. for the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周晚些时候，经济学家、中央银行官员和商业媒体成员将齐聚怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔，参加堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的年度杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会。</p>
</div><p>The gathering has become a highlight of the summer calendar for Fed watchers, and a perennial destination for luminaries of the economics profession. For investors, the main event usually takes place on Friday, when the chair of the Federal Reserve delivers an address that is broadcast live to participants in financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次聚会已成为美联储观察者夏季日历中的亮点，也是经济学界名流的常年目的地。对于投资者来说，主要活动通常在周五进行，美联储主席发表的演讲会实时向金融市场参与者播出。</p>
</div><p>Powell is due to speak Friday at 10 a.m. ET. For some, Powell stepping up to the microphone in Jackson Hole might stir unpleasant memories. Back in 2022, he stopped a torrid bear-market rally in its tracks when he insisted that the central bank remained committed to crushing inflation by keeping interest rates high, even if this approach resulted in some pain for American consumers and businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔定于周五上午 10 点（东部时间）发言。对一些人来说，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的发言可能会唤起不愉快的回忆。早在 2022 年，他在坚持美联储致力于通过保持高利率来压制通胀时，阻止了一场猛烈的熊市反弹，即使这种做法给美国消费者和企业带来了痛苦。</p>
</div><p>See: Will Powell use Jackson Hole speech to push back on hopes for September rate cut?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参见：鲍威尔会在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中对九月降息的希望进行反驳吗？</p>
</div><p>But according to a team of strategists at Bespoke Investment Group, the S&amp;P 500's 4% drop that week hardly typifies how markets have historically reacted during the week of Jackson Hole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但根据 Bespoke Investment Group 的一组策略师的说法，标准普尔 500 指数在那一周下跌 4% 并不代表市场在杰克逊霍尔周的历史反应。</p>
</div><p>Going back to 2009, the week has generally seen positive returns for equity investors, with a median gain of 0.8% for the S&amp;P 500, Bespoke found. Stocks have only finished the week lower five times since then, out of 16 total examples. Only twice has the selloff been greater than 1%: In 2019, and 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2009 年以来，这一周通常为股票投资者带来正回报，Bespoke 发现标准普尔 500 指数的中位数涨幅为 0.8%。自那以来，股票仅有五次在这一周结束时下跌，总共 16 个例子。只有两次的下跌超过 1%：分别是在 2019 年和 2022 年。</p>
</div><p>Treasurys have generally trended higher, too, although their returns haven't been quite as robust as what equity investors have experienced. The Bespoke team found that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF TLT has seen a median return of +0.2% during the week of Jackson Hole. Treasury yields fall as prices rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国债的走势通常也呈上升趋势，尽管其回报并没有股票投资者经历的那么强劲。Bespoke 团队发现，iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF TLT 在杰克逊霍尔周的中位回报为 +0.2%。国债收益率在价格上涨时下降。</p>
</div><p>Setting aside historical performance figures, investors appear to be bracing for potential volatility this time around, the Bespoke team said. And with good reason. Powell is facing tremendous pressure from the White House to deliver a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抛开历史表现数据，Bespoke 团队表示，投资者似乎在为这次可能的波动做好准备，理由充分。鲍威尔面临来自白宫的巨大压力，要求他在美联储下次会议上于九月降息。</p>
</div><p>So far, Fed policymakers have appeared increasingly divided on whether starting to cut interest rates again here would be the right approach. Back in July, two members of the Fed's board of governors broke with their peers to vote in favor of a 25 basis point cut to the Fed's policy rate target, the most dissents by members of the board of governors since 1993. A rotating group of regional Federal Reserve branch presidents also gets to vote on rate policy, alongside members of the Fed's Washington-based governors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，美联储政策制定者在是否在此时开始再次降息的问题上似乎越来越分歧。早在七月，美联储董事会的两名成员与其他成员意见相左，投票支持将美联储政策利率目标下调 25 个基点，这是自 1993 年以来董事会成员中最多的异议。一个轮换的地区联邦储备分行行长小组也有权在利率政策上投票，连同美联储华盛顿总部的董事会成员。</p>
</div><p>Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a strong chance of a rate cut in September. The market-based probability put chances of a hike at more than 80% as of Monday, according to data from CME Group. Some have wondered whether Powell might push back on these expectations come Friday. But even if Powell hints that the central bank could move ahead with more rate cuts, the result on Friday might be a Catch-22 for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储基金期货交易者正在为九月降息定价，市场基于概率的数据显示，周一加息的可能性超过 80%。一些人想知道鲍威尔是否会在周五对这些预期进行反驳。但即使鲍威尔暗示美联储可能会继续降息，周五的结果对投资者来说可能是个两难境地。</p>
</div><p>Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, said his macroeconomic models make a strong case that the Fed's policy rate should be lower. But by suggesting that rates should come down, Powell would likely need to acknowledge that the labor market is, in fact, weakening. Investors have already received plenty of disappointing data on that front - the July jobs report was dismal enough that President Trump even fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, alleging without evidence that the numbers had been rigged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Renaissance Macro 的经济研究负责人 Neil Dutta 表示，他的宏观经济模型强烈表明美联储的政策利率应该降低。但如果鲍威尔暗示利率应该下降，他可能需要承认劳动力市场实际上正在减弱。投资者已经收到了很多关于这一方面的令人失望的数据——七月的就业报告糟糕到特朗普总统甚至解雇了劳工统计局局长，声称没有证据表明数据被操纵。</p>
</div><p>But something about hearing concerns about the labor market straight from Powell himself could help drive the point home to financial market participants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但直接听到鲍威尔本人对劳动力市场的担忧，可能会帮助金融市场参与者更好地理解这一点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;For equity investors, it might be wise to take some chips off the table heading into Jackson Hole,&#34; Dutta said in commentary shared with MarketWatch. The fact that equity valuations have soared into historically high territory could leave stocks vulnerable to any perceived disappointment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于股票投资者来说，在进入杰克逊霍尔之前，可能明智的做法是减持一些头寸，” Dutta 在与 MarketWatch 分享的评论中表示。股票估值飙升至历史高位，可能使股票在任何被认为的失望面前变得脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Need to Know: Without this Jackson Hole signal, stocks could slide 15% in the fall, says one strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意：没有这个杰克逊霍尔信号，股票可能在秋季下滑 15%，一位策略师表示。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, Jackson Hole isn't the only potentially market-moving event this week. Investors will hear from a number of senior Fed officials, received the minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, and digest a handful of corporate earnings reports from major American retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，杰克逊霍尔并不是本周唯一可能影响市场的事件。投资者将听到多位高级美联储官员的发言，收到美联储最新政策会议的纪要，并消化一些主要美国零售商的企业财报。</p>
</div><p>Major indexes were kicking off the week on a soft note, with the S&amp;P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP marginally lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was little changed in recent trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要指数在本周开局时表现疲软，标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 和纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 略微下跌，而道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 在最近的交易中变化不大。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Investors are plowing into homebuilder stocks. Will Jackson Hole prove them wrong?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：投资者正在涌入建筑商股票。杰克逊霍尔会证明他们是错的吗？</p>
</div><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div>

股票通常会在美联储杰克逊霍尔大会周上涨。今年可能不会出现这种情况