<p>微软公司 NASDAQ: MSFT 刚刚提醒投资者它为何值得溢价。然而，股票在财报发布后的波动可能为九月的反弹铺平了道路。</p>
<p>该公司第二季度的财报提醒投资者，微软仍然是市场上最受欢迎的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
<p>但即使是优秀的股票也会偶尔喘口气。在财报发布后跳空上涨后，MSFT 股票逐渐下滑。这并不算是抛售，但提醒我们即使是蓝筹科技股也需要市场成交量。</p>
<p>这种成交量即将回归。在九月，机构投资者可以重新进入市场，并微调他们的年末持仓。查看微软的 <strong>8 月 29 日期权链</strong> 显示出看涨的偏向，支持股票可能准备重新测试并突破财报发布后的高点。</p>
<h2>看涨的期权布局</h2>
<p>微软在 8 月 29 日的期权链显示出几个近期的行权价（例如：$550、$535、$530 和$540），这些行权价的看涨期权成交量明显高于看跌期权成交量。值得注意的是，其中几个行权价的未平仓合约数量出现净增加。这表明交易者正在增加新头寸，即使是在（例如：$550）价外的行权价上。</p>
<p>这些关键的看涨期权显示出隐含波动率正在上升，表明交易者愿意为更多的上涨敞口支付费用。高成交量支持这一点，增加了 <strong>看涨情绪</strong>。</p>
<p>公平地说，一些看跌期权的成交量也很可观。然而，负德尔塔并没有表现出强烈的看跌，这表明保护性对冲仍然可以被解读为看涨。</p>
<h2>分析师对 MSFT 股票的看法一致</h2>
<p>查看微软的看涨期权与分析师的目标价相比，可以说投资者过于保守。自微软在 7 月 30 日发布财报以来，大约 18 位分析师提高了他们的目标价和/或升级了 MSFT 股票。</p>
<p>其中最高的目标价来自 Jefferies，给该股票设定了 675 美元的目标价，较之前的 600 美元上调。这是相较于当前股价 <strong>30% 的上涨空间</strong>。</p>
<p>分析师们喜欢微软的基本面，包括强劲的经营现金流（OCF）和收入。在公司的财政年度第四季度，公司报告了超过 14% 的年同比 OCF 增长。55.79% 的 OCF 利润率比其在 FYQ2 报告的 32% 高出 75 个基点。</p>
<p>微软重申了其数据中心的资本支出（CapEx）计划。然而，分析师指出，资本支出增长的速度正在放缓，并将在 FY2026 继续放缓。这应该会提升公司的自由现金流，而在公司最后一个季度，自由现金流已经同比增长了 10%。</p>
<h2>为什么九月可能对 MSFT 股票波动较大</h2>
<p>九月历来是股票表现最差的月份。经济开始显现更多的清晰度，但关税、通货膨胀和利率等主题仍然是预计九月波动的原因。</p>
<p>这就是为什么投资者可能想关注 MSFT 股票可能形成的死亡交叉。在一个月的图表中，50 日简单移动平均线（SMA）接近于穿越 200 日 SMA。这可能意味着买入并持有的投资者可能会以（轻微的）折扣购买微软股票。</p>
<p>需要关注的区域包括：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>$515</strong> – 这与 7 月底的先前整合区间相符</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>$505</strong> – 这与 7 月初的低点相符，并与夏季中期的突破区间相一致。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>$495</strong> – 这与高成交量支撑位相符，并且是期权链中看跌兴趣较重的行权价。</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/logos/articles/med_20250814135744_msft814.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="549" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/logos/articles/med_20250814135744_msft814.png"/></p>
<p>然而，投资者可能没有太多时间反应。死亡交叉通常标志着下跌走势的中间，而不是开始，尤其是对于像微软这样基本面强劲的大型公司。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在微软吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑微软之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买... 而微软并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然微软目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的股票在九月份显示出看涨潜力，这主要受到看涨期权活动和分析师乐观情绪的推动。尽管在财报发布后出现了一定的回调，分析师们仍然提高了目标价，杰富瑞将目标价设定为 675 美元，暗示有 30% 的上涨空间。然而，由于历史趋势和经济因素，九月份可能会带来波动。需要关注的关键支撑位包括 515 美元、505 美元和 495 美元。虽然微软的评级为适度买入，但一些分析师建议其他股票可能提供更好的投资机会</p>

<p>Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ: MSFT just reminded investors why it’s worth its premium. However, the stock’s post-earnings drift could be setting up a bullish September rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软公司 NASDAQ: MSFT 刚刚提醒投资者它为何值得溢价。然而，股票在财报发布后的波动可能为九月的反弹铺平了道路。</p>
</div><p>The company’s second-quarter earnings report reminded investors that Microsoft continues to be one of the market's most sought-after artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司第二季度的财报提醒投资者，微软仍然是市场上最受欢迎的人工智能（AI）股票之一。</p>
</div><p>But even great stocks take a breather now and then. After gapping up after earnings, MSFT stock has drifted lower. It's hardly a sell-off, but it’s a reminder that even blue-chip technology stocks need market volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使是优秀的股票也会偶尔喘口气。在财报发布后跳空上涨后，MSFT 股票逐渐下滑。这并不算是抛售，但提醒我们即使是蓝筹科技股也需要市场成交量。</p>
</div><p>That volume is about to return. In September, institutional investors can jump back into the market and fine-tune their positions for the end of the year. A look at the <strong>August 29 options chain</strong> for Microsoft shows a bullish bias that supports a belief that the stock may be getting ready to retest and push past post-earnings highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种成交量即将回归。在九月，机构投资者可以重新进入市场，并微调他们的年末持仓。查看微软的 <strong>8 月 29 日期权链</strong> 显示出看涨的偏向，支持股票可能准备重新测试并突破财报发布后的高点。</p>
</div><h2>Call-Heavy Positioning Leans Bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看涨的期权布局</h2>
</div><p>The Microsoft options chain for August 29 shows several near-term strike prices (e.g., $550, $535, $530, and $540) where call volumes are significantly higher than put volumes. Notably, several of those strikes show net increases in open interest. This is a sign that traders are adding new positions, even at strike prices (e.g., $550) that are out-of-the-money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软在 8 月 29 日的期权链显示出几个近期的行权价（例如：$550、$535、$530 和$540），这些行权价的看涨期权成交量明显高于看跌期权成交量。值得注意的是，其中几个行权价的未平仓合约数量出现净增加。这表明交易者正在增加新头寸，即使是在（例如：$550）价外的行权价上。</p>
</div><p>Those key calls show that implied volatility is rising, suggesting that traders are willing to pay for more upside exposure. High volume supports this, adding to the <strong>bullish sentiment</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些关键的看涨期权显示出隐含波动率正在上升，表明交易者愿意为更多的上涨敞口支付费用。高成交量支持这一点，增加了 <strong>看涨情绪</strong>。</p>
</div><p>In fairness, some of the put options have solid volumes. However, the negative deltas are not aggressively bearish, which suggests protective hedging that can still be interpreted as bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，一些看跌期权的成交量也很可观。然而，负德尔塔并没有表现出强烈的看跌，这表明保护性对冲仍然可以被解读为看涨。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts Are All in on MSFT Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师对 MSFT 股票的看法一致</h2>
</div><p>Looking at the call options for Microsoft compared to analysts’ price targets, you could argue that investors are being too conservative. Since Microsoft reported earnings on July 30, approximately 18 analysts have raised their price targets and/or upgraded MSFT stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看微软的看涨期权与分析师的目标价相比，可以说投资者过于保守。自微软在 7 月 30 日发布财报以来，大约 18 位分析师提高了他们的目标价和/或升级了 MSFT 股票。</p>
</div><p>The highest of those price targets is from Jefferies, which gives the stock a $675 price target, up from $600. That’s a <strong>30% upside</strong> from the stock’s price as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中最高的目标价来自 Jefferies，给该股票设定了 675 美元的目标价，较之前的 600 美元上调。这是相较于当前股价 <strong>30% 的上涨空间</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Analysts love Microsoft’s fundamentals, which include strong operating cash flow (OCF) and revenue. In the company's fiscal year fourth quarter, the company reported year-over-year OCF growth of over 14%. The 55.79% OCF margin was 75 basis points higher than the 32% mark it reported in FYQ2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们喜欢微软的基本面，包括强劲的经营现金流（OCF）和收入。在公司的财政年度第四季度，公司报告了超过 14% 的年同比 OCF 增长。55.79% 的 OCF 利润率比其在 FYQ2 报告的 32% 高出 75 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft reiterated its capital expenditure (CapEx) spending for data centers. However, analysts note that the rate of CapEx growth is slowing and will continue to do so in FY2026. That should boost the company’s free cash flow, which was already up 10% year-over-year in the company’s last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软重申了其数据中心的资本支出（CapEx）计划。然而，分析师指出，资本支出增长的速度正在放缓，并将在 FY2026 继续放缓。这应该会提升公司的自由现金流，而在公司最后一个季度，自由现金流已经同比增长了 10%。</p>
</div><h2>Why September May Be Volatile for MSFT Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么九月可能对 MSFT 股票波动较大</h2>
</div><p>September is historically the worst month for stocks. The economy is starting to show more clarity, but the same themes of tariffs, inflation, and interest rates continue to be reasons to expect volatility in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>九月历来是股票表现最差的月份。经济开始显现更多的清晰度，但关税、通货膨胀和利率等主题仍然是预计九月波动的原因。</p>
</div><p>That’s why investors may want to pay attention to a potential death cross forming for MSFT stock. In the one-month chart, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is close to crossing below the 200-day SMA. That could mean that buy-and-hold investors may get to buy Microsoft stock at a (slight) discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么投资者可能想关注 MSFT 股票可能形成的死亡交叉。在一个月的图表中，50 日简单移动平均线（SMA）接近于穿越 200 日 SMA。这可能意味着买入并持有的投资者可能会以（轻微的）折扣购买微软股票。</p>
</div><p>Areas to watch include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要关注的区域包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>$515</strong> – This aligns with a prior consolidation zone in late July</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>$515</strong> – 这与 7 月底的先前整合区间相符</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>$505</strong> – This aligns with the stock’s low in early July pivot that aligns with a mid-summer breakout zone.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>$505</strong> – 这与 7 月初的低点相符，并与夏季中期的突破区间相一致。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>$495</strong> – This aligns with a high-volume support level and the strike with heavy put interest from the options chain.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>$495</strong> – 这与高成交量支撑位相符，并且是期权链中看跌兴趣较重的行权价。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.marketbeat.com/logos/articles/med_20250814135744_msft814.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.marketbeat.com/logos/articles/med_20250814135744_msft814.png"/></p>
<p>However, investors may not have much time to react. Death crosses often mark the middle of a down move rather than the start, especially for large-cap companies with strong fundamentals like Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者可能没有太多时间反应。死亡交叉通常标志着下跌走势的中间，而不是开始，尤其是对于像微软这样基本面强劲的大型公司。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Microsoft Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在微软吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Microsoft, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑微软之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Microsoft wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买... 而微软并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Microsoft currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然微软目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock: Bullish Bets Pile Up Before September

- 微软公司第二季度财报显示其在人工智能领域的强劲表现。  
- 机构投资者预计将在九月重新进入市场，可能推动股价反弹。  
- 分析师普遍看好微软，目标价上调至 675 美元，显示出 30% 的上涨潜力。

微软股票：看涨押注在九月前大量积累