<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) 被许多人视为长期投资者可靠的股票。自从年轻的沃伦·巴菲特在 1965 年接管公司以来，它的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，并且从一个衰老的纺织制造商演变为一个多元化的企业集团，创造了百万富翁的收益。</p>
<p>但在过去的 12 个月里，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票仅上涨了 7.4%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 16%。下面，我将分析它为何表现不佳，以及在 11 月下次财报发布之前，为什么仍然值得增持。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦表现不佳？</h2>
<p>对伯克希尔股票影响最大的因素是巴菲特在 5 月初宣布他将在年底前退休，辞去首席执行官职务。他将由伯克希尔能源的董事长兼首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔接任。阿贝尔自 1999 年起就加入伯克希尔，但并不像巴菲特或他已故的长期合作伙伴查理·芒格那样是一位经验丰富的选股者。巴菲特将继续担任董事会主席。</p>
<p>伯克希尔的股票投资组合价值 2950 亿美元，占其市值 1.03 万亿美元的 29%。如果阿贝尔及其团队管理不善这一庞大的投资组合——其中包括对 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>美国银行</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 的重大投资——可能会侵蚀公司的长期盈利增长。伯克希尔对价值股的关注进一步限制了其今年的收益，因为许多投资者转向了增长型投资。</p>
<p>这还不是全部。阿吉特·贾因在伯克希尔担任保险主管近四十年，他在 2024 年出售了超过一半的股份。随后，伯克希尔暂停了股票回购，出售了大量顶级股票，并通过大规模购买短期国债将现金及其等价物提升至创纪录的高位。所有这些保守的举措表明，伯克希尔的股票和更广泛的市场都变得被高估。</p>
<h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦仍然是一个有吸引力的投资？</h2>
<p>这些挑战显然阻止了看涨者急于回归伯克希尔，但我认为其股票仍然看起来合理估值。在当前市值下，伯克希尔的交易价格为 2024 年运营收益的 21 倍（不包括与投资相关的收益和损失）。</p>
<p>回到 2019 年底，伯克希尔的股票仍以当年运营收益的 23 倍交易。如果你当时没有投资伯克希尔，因为你认为它看起来有点贵，你就错过了超过 110% 的收益。</p>
<p>从 2019 年到 2024 年，伯克希尔的运营收益以 15% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长——即使在疫情、通货膨胀、高利率、贸易战、地缘政治冲突和其他宏观逆风扰动全球市场的情况下。它实现了这种稳定增长，因为其核心业务从保险子公司中产生了大量利润——这些子公司比其他行业更能抵御经济衰退。随着利率下降和宏观环境稳定，其其他子公司——尤其是铁路、能源和消费品行业的子公司——应该会再次表现出色，并补充其保险业务的增长。</p>
<p>至于巴菲特的退休及其对伯克希尔投资组合的潜在影响，我认为阿贝尔不会突然改变这些股票。相反，他可能会坚持巴菲特的价值导向选股策略，而不是追逐风险更高、增长更快的投资。其核心业务应该继续产生新现金，以逐步扩大该投资组合。</p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦在巴菲特最终退休时可能会经历一些波折，但我相信他建立了一家将在未来几十年继续增长的公司。它可能不会像过去那样引起太多的兴奋，但现在仍然是最值得购买的股票之一。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦（BRK.A，BRK.B）被视为一个稳健的长期投资，尽管过去一年股价上涨了 7.4%，但仍落后于标准普尔 500 指数的 16% 的涨幅。首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特即将退休，引发了对格雷格·阿贝尔未来管理能力的担忧。然而，伯克希尔的股票在 2024 年运营收益的 21 倍估值下仍然合理，且公司拥有强劲的增长历史。公司的多元化投资组合和稳定的保险利润使其在未来增长中处于良好位置，使其在 11 月财报发布前成为一个引人注目的买入机会</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) is considered by many to be a reliable stock for long-term investors. It's outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> ever since a young Warren Buffett took over the company in 1965, and its evolution from an aging textile maker to a diversified conglomerate churned out millionaire-making gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.05%)(BRK.B 0.24%) 被许多人视为长期投资者可靠的股票。自从年轻的沃伦·巴菲特在 1965 年接管公司以来，它的表现超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，并且从一个衰老的纺织制造商演变为一个多元化的企业集团，创造了百万富翁的收益。</p>
</div><p>But over the past 12 months, Berkshire Hathaway's stock is only up 7.4%, as the S&amp;P 500 rallied 16%. Below, I'll examine why it underperformed the market -- and why it's still worth accumulating before its next earnings report in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在过去的 12 个月里，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票仅上涨了 7.4%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 16%。下面，我将分析它为何表现不佳，以及在 11 月下次财报发布之前，为什么仍然值得增持。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk2MTEvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829611%2Fwarren-buffett.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Why did Berkshire Hathaway underperform the market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦表现不佳？</h2>
</div><p>The heaviest weight on Berkshire's stock was Buffett's announcement in early May that he would retire by the end of the year from his role as CEO. He will be succeeded by Greg Abel, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Energy. Abel has been with Berkshire since 1999 but isn't a seasoned stock picker like Buffett or his longtime partner, the late Charlie Munger. Buffett will keep his title as board chairman.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对伯克希尔股票影响最大的因素是巴菲特在 5 月初宣布他将在年底前退休，辞去首席执行官职务。他将由伯克希尔能源的董事长兼首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔接任。阿贝尔自 1999 年起就加入伯克希尔，但并不像巴菲特或他已故的长期合作伙伴查理·芒格那样是一位经验丰富的选股者。巴菲特将继续担任董事会主席。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's stock portfolio is worth $295 billion, or 29% of its market cap of $1.03 trillion. If Abel and his team mismanage that massive portfolio -- which includes big stakes in <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Bank of America</strong>, and <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> -- it could erode the company's long-term earnings growth. Berkshire's focus on value stocks further capped its gains this year as many investors rotated toward growth plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔的股票投资组合价值 2950 亿美元，占其市值 1.03 万亿美元的 29%。如果阿贝尔及其团队管理不善这一庞大的投资组合——其中包括对 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>美国银行</strong> 和 <strong>可口可乐</strong> 的重大投资——可能会侵蚀公司的长期盈利增长。伯克希尔对价值股的关注进一步限制了其今年的收益，因为许多投资者转向了增长型投资。</p>
</div><p>That's not all. Ajit Jain, who served as Berkshire's insurance chief for nearly four decades, sold more than half of his shares in 2024. Berkshire then paused its buybacks, sold a lot of its top stocks, and boosted its cash and equivalents to record highs with its massive purchases of short-term Treasuries. All of those conservative moves suggested both Berkshire's stock and the broader market were getting overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这还不是全部。阿吉特·贾因在伯克希尔担任保险主管近四十年，他在 2024 年出售了超过一半的股份。随后，伯克希尔暂停了股票回购，出售了大量顶级股票，并通过大规模购买短期国债将现金及其等价物提升至创纪录的高位。所有这些保守的举措表明，伯克希尔的股票和更广泛的市场都变得被高估。</p>
</div><h2>Why is Berkshire Hathaway still a compelling investment?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦仍然是一个有吸引力的投资？</h2>
</div><p>Those challenges are clearly preventing the bulls from rushing back to Berkshire, but I think its stock still looks reasonably valued. At its current market cap, Berkshire trades at 21 times its operating earnings (which exclude its investment-related gains and losses) from 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些挑战显然阻止了看涨者急于回归伯克希尔，但我认为其股票仍然看起来合理估值。在当前市值下，伯克希尔的交易价格为 2024 年运营收益的 21 倍（不包括与投资相关的收益和损失）。</p>
</div><p>Flipping the calendar back to the end of 2019, Berkshire's stock was still trading at 23 times operating earnings for the year. If you didn't invest in Berkshire back then because you thought it looked a bit too pricey, you missed out on a gain of more than 110%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到 2019 年底，伯克希尔的股票仍以当年运营收益的 23 倍交易。如果你当时没有投资伯克希尔，因为你认为它看起来有点贵，你就错过了超过 110% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>From 2019 to 2024, Berkshire's operating earnings grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% -- even as the pandemic, inflation, high interest rates, trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and other macro headwinds rattled the global markets. It achieved that stable growth because its core business generates a lot of its profits from its insurance subsidiaries -- which are better insulated from economic downturns than other sectors. As interest rates decline and the macro environment stabilizes, its other subsidiaries -- especially those in the railroad, energy, and consumer staples sectors -- should shine again and complement the growth of its insurance businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2019 年到 2024 年，伯克希尔的运营收益以 15% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长——即使在疫情、通货膨胀、高利率、贸易战、地缘政治冲突和其他宏观逆风扰动全球市场的情况下。它实现了这种稳定增长，因为其核心业务从保险子公司中产生了大量利润——这些子公司比其他行业更能抵御经济衰退。随着利率下降和宏观环境稳定，其其他子公司——尤其是铁路、能源和消费品行业的子公司——应该会再次表现出色，并补充其保险业务的增长。</p>
</div><p>As for Buffett's retirement and its potential impact on Berkshire's portfolio, I don't think Abel will abruptly shake up those stocks. Instead, he'll probably stick with Buffett's value-oriented stock-picking strategies instead of chasing riskier and higher-growth plays. Its core business should keep generating fresh cash to gradually expand that portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于巴菲特的退休及其对伯克希尔投资组合的潜在影响，我认为阿贝尔不会突然改变这些股票。相反，他可能会坚持巴菲特的价值导向选股策略，而不是追逐风险更高、增长更快的投资。其核心业务应该继续产生新现金，以逐步扩大该投资组合。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway might experience a few hiccups as Buffett finally retires, but I believe he built a company that will keep growing for decades to come. It might not stir up as much excitement as it did in the past, but it's still one of the best stocks to buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦在巴菲特最终退休时可能会经历一些波折，但我相信他建立了一家将在未来几十年继续增长的公司。它可能不会像过去那样引起太多的兴奋，但现在仍然是最值得购买的股票之一。</p>
</div>

Here's Why Berkshire Hathaway Stock Is a Buy Before November

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票在过去 12 个月仅上涨 7.4%。  
- CEO 巴菲特宣布将于年底退休，接任者阿贝尔面临管理挑战。  
- 尽管面临困难，伯克希尔的核心业务仍具增长潜力，值得长期投资。

为什么伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票在 11 月之前值得购买