<p>我对甜腻的格言并不太感兴趣，但传奇投资者 <strong>沃伦·巴菲特</strong> 的经得起时间考验的建议在周二的市场抛售中浮现在脑海中：“当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。” 当然，这种情绪的问题在于，实证上很难确定在所谓的折扣时应该买入哪些股票。然而，深入细节来看，科技巨头 <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGGOOGL 为自己提供了一个令人信服的案例。</p>
<p>从年初至今，C 类 GOOG 股票的表现并不是最强劲的，涨幅约为 6%。然而，与其他上市创新公司一样，自 4 月低点以来，GOOG（连同 A 类 GOOGL）大幅上涨。它在最近之前一直稳步上升，但最近前进的势头似乎减弱了。在周二的早午时分，该证券下跌超过 1%。</p>
<p>这可能是投资者简单地从市场中获利了结的结果。上个月，Alphabet 公布了强劲的第二季度业绩，收入达到 964.3 亿美元，超出市场共识目标的 937.2 亿美元。在底线方面，该公司每股收益为 2.31 美元，超过市场共识的 2.16 美元。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，管理层将 2025 年的资本支出预期上调至约 850 亿美元，理由是对云产品和服务的 “强劲和持续增长的需求”。在积极因素似乎多于消极因素的情况下，投资者可能只是锁定了一些收益——尤其是在不确定的宏观环境中。</p>
<p>技术分析师可能会指出 GOOG 股票可能形成头肩顶形态。作为该领域中最常被引用的形态之一，它吸引了零售和专业交易者的关注。从象征意义上讲，它暗示多头的动力正在减弱——最终，空头将接管。</p>
<p>然而，技术分析的一个问题是，这种形态通常只有在事后才有意义。如果 GOOG 股票改变其轨迹，信号可能会消失。无论如何，相信头肩顶形态需要确认——而等待这种确认可能会使今天刚刚显现的实证方法失效。</p>
<h2>GOOG 股票提供了一个统计上诱人的提议</h2>
<p>公平地说，持有看跌框架的交易者有证据支持他们的担忧。对关税可能对本来强劲的科技行业产生负面影响的担忧让华尔街感到震惊。因此，市场专业人士正在大量购买看跌期权——特别是远离执行价的看跌期权。实际上，这种收购可能代表了对潜在崩溃的保险（因为它们在目标资产达到负盈利阈值时支付）。</p>
<p>与此同时，值得注意的是，前一天，多头正在庆祝美国投资级公司债券与国债收益率之间的利差收窄。这一罕见的债券市场信号自 1998 年以来未曾出现——就在美国历史上最爆炸性的牛市之前。</p>
<p>这些例子突显了基于头条新闻进行交易的现实是极其困难的：意见四散飞扬。你能坚持的唯一客观真理是：到头来，市场要么是净买家，要么是净卖家。</p>
<p>我的假设是，最近一系列市场行为在未来对投资者情绪的影响最大。通过跟踪华尔街的情绪投票记录，以离散的二元方式，我们可以更容易地识别模式——客观的、可证伪的模式——以提取概率分析。</p>
<p>例如，在过去 10 周中，市场对 GOOG 股票的买入投票 6 次，卖出投票 4 次。在此期间，GOOG 呈现出上升的轨迹。为了简洁起见，我们可以将这一序列标记为 6-4-U。值得注意的是，在 64.18% 的情况下，下一周的价格走势会出现上涨，平均回报为 1.94%。</p>
<p>显然，任何纸面上的交易提议都必须超过基准表现；在这种情况下，即 GOOG 股票在任何给定周内上涨的机会。这个指标高达 57.64%，显示出强烈的上升偏向。</p>
<p>尽管这个基准很高，6-4-U 在统计上给了看涨交易者一个优势。因此，投机者可能有理由在这里尝试一下。</p>
<h2>利用市场制造者愿意给予的机会</h2>
<p>如果你相信实证案例而非技术分析，有两种多腿期权策略脱颖而出。两者都是看涨价差策略，涉及购买一个看涨期权，同时在更高的执行价出售一个看涨期权。支付的净借款（长借款减去短信用）也成为你在交易中可能损失的最大金额。当然，想法是目标证券在到期时上涨超过短期（更高）执行价，以收取最大收益。</p>
<p>首先，看涨交易者可以考虑 205.00/207.50 的看涨价差，截止日期为 9 月 19 日。此交易需要净借款 115 美元，最大利润为 135 美元，或超过 117% 的收益。其次，投机者可以考虑 205/210 的看涨价差，截止日期为 9 月 26 日。此交易需要净借款 210 美元，有机会产生 290 美元的利润，收益超过 138%。</p>
<p>这两种看涨价差都很有趣，主要区别在于 9 月 26 日的价差需要更多的前期资金，以换取额外的时间缓冲。</p>
<p>就 6-4-U 序列的统计有效性而言，进行单尾二项检验得出的 p 值为 0.1686。基本上，这意味着信号的含义有 16.86% 的机会是随机产生的，而不是故意的。</p>
<p>虽然将 6-4-U 的信号与随机性区分开来有些困难，但较高的 p 值源于 GOOG 股票享有超高的基线概率。最终，这应该会激励看涨交易者，因为空头确实需要一个有说服力的论据来逆转这一趋势。</p>
<p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：咖啡连锁店 Dutch Bros 可能会酝酿出情绪逆转</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

1 倍做空谷歌 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - Direxion

<p>本文讨论了在市场波动中对 Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) 的不同看法。尽管年初至今 GOOG 的股价上涨了 6%，但最近其股价下跌超过 1%，投资者在强劲的第二季度业绩后选择获利了结，收入超出预期。分析师指出可能出现头肩顶形态，表明看涨动能减弱。对关税的担忧导致看跌期权增加，而收紧的债券收益率差则暗示可能出现牛市。历史情绪分析显示 GOOG 的买入模式为 6-4，表明看涨交易者可能通过特定的期权策略找到机会</p>

<p>I'm not too big on saccharine aphorisms but legendary investor's <strong>Warren Buffett's</strong> time-tested advice comes to mind during Tuesday's market selloff: &#34;Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.&#34; Of course, the problem with such sentiments is that it's empirically impossible to determine <em>which</em> stocks to buy when they're supposedly on a discount. Drilling into the details, though, tech juggernaut <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGGOOGL makes a compelling case for itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对甜腻的格言并不太感兴趣，但传奇投资者 <strong>沃伦·巴菲特</strong> 的经得起时间考验的建议在周二的市场抛售中浮现在脑海中：“当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。” 当然，这种情绪的问题在于，实证上很难确定在所谓的折扣时应该买入哪些股票。然而，深入细节来看，科技巨头 <strong>Alphabet Inc</strong> GOOGGOOGL 为自己提供了一个令人信服的案例。</p>
</div><p>On a year-to-date basis, Class C GOOG stock hasn't been the strongest performer, gaining around 6%. However, like other publicly traded innovators, GOOG (along with Class A GOOGL) has popped dramatically higher since the April lows. It has marched convincingly higher until recently, when forward momentum appeared to wane. On Tuesday early afternoon, the security was down more than 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从年初至今，C 类 GOOG 股票的表现并不是最强劲的，涨幅约为 6%。然而，与其他上市创新公司一样，自 4 月低点以来，GOOG（连同 A 类 GOOGL）大幅上涨。它在最近之前一直稳步上升，但最近前进的势头似乎减弱了。在周二的早午时分，该证券下跌超过 1%。</p>
</div><p>It could be a case of investors simply taking some profits off the table. Last month, Alphabet posted strong second-quarter results, with revenue hitting $96.43 billion, beating the consensus target of $93.72 billion. On the bottom line, the company posted earnings of $2.31 per share, exceeding the consensus view of $2.16 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是投资者简单地从市场中获利了结的结果。上个月，Alphabet 公布了强劲的第二季度业绩，收入达到 964.3 亿美元，超出市场共识目标的 937.2 亿美元。在底线方面，该公司每股收益为 2.31 美元，超过市场共识的 2.16 美元。</p>
</div><p>Notably, management raised its capital expenditure outlook for 2025 to approximately $85 billion, citing &#34;strong and growing demand&#34; for cloud products and services. With arguably more positives than negatives, investors may have simply secured some of their gains — especially amid an uncertain macro environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，管理层将 2025 年的资本支出预期上调至约 850 亿美元，理由是对云产品和服务的 “强劲和持续增长的需求”。在积极因素似乎多于消极因素的情况下，投资者可能只是锁定了一些收益——尤其是在不确定的宏观环境中。</p>
</div><p>Technical analysts will likely point to GOOG stock potentially forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. As one of the most commonly cited patterns in the discipline, it attracts attention from both retail and professional traders. Symbolically, it suggests that the bulls are running out of steam — and eventually, the bears take over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技术分析师可能会指出 GOOG 股票可能形成头肩顶形态。作为该领域中最常被引用的形态之一，它吸引了零售和专业交易者的关注。从象征意义上讲，它暗示多头的动力正在减弱——最终，空头将接管。</p>
</div><p>Still, one of the issues with technical analysis is that such patterns are usually only meaningful in retrospect. If GOOG stock changes its trajectory, the signal may simply vanish. Either way, belief in the head and shoulders requires confirmation — and waiting for this confirmation could nullify the empirical approach that just materialized today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，技术分析的一个问题是，这种形态通常只有在事后才有意义。如果 GOOG 股票改变其轨迹，信号可能会消失。无论如何，相信头肩顶形态需要确认——而等待这种确认可能会使今天刚刚显现的实证方法失效。</p>
</div><h2>GOOG Stock Offers A Statistically Tempting Proposition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GOOG 股票提供了一个统计上诱人的提议</h2>
</div><p>To be fair, traders with a bearish framework have evidence to back up their anxieties. Concerns that tariffs may negatively impact the otherwise robust tech sector have startled Wall Street. As such, market pros are loading up on bearish options — specifically far out-the-money puts. Essentially, such acquisitions may represent insurance against a potential meltdown (since they pay out if the targeted assets reach negative profitability thresholds).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，持有看跌框架的交易者有证据支持他们的担忧。对关税可能对本来强劲的科技行业产生负面影响的担忧让华尔街感到震惊。因此，市场专业人士正在大量购买看跌期权——特别是远离执行价的看跌期权。实际上，这种收购可能代表了对潜在崩溃的保险（因为它们在目标资产达到负盈利阈值时支付）。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, it's important to note that a day earlier, the bulls were celebrating the tightening spread between U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasury yields. This rare bond market signal hasn't been seen since 1998 — right before one of the most explosive bull markets in U.S. history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，值得注意的是，前一天，多头正在庆祝美国投资级公司债券与国债收益率之间的利差收窄。这一罕见的债券市场信号自 1998 年以来未曾出现——就在美国历史上最爆炸性的牛市之前。</p>
</div><p>These examples highlight the reality that trading on the headlines is extremely difficult: opinions are flying left and right. Just about the only objective truth you can hold on to is this: at the end of the day, the market is either a net buyer or net seller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些例子突显了基于头条新闻进行交易的现实是极其困难的：意见四散飞扬。你能坚持的唯一客观真理是：到头来，市场要么是净买家，要么是净卖家。</p>
</div><p>My presupposition is that the series of market behaviors in the recent past reflect heaviest on investor sentiment in the future. By tracking Wall Street's sentiment voting record on a discrete, binary basis, we can more easily identify patterns — objective, falsifiable ones — for the purpose of extracting probabilistic analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的假设是，最近一系列市场行为在未来对投资者情绪的影响最大。通过跟踪华尔街的情绪投票记录，以离散的二元方式，我们可以更容易地识别模式——客观的、可证伪的模式——以提取概率分析。</p>
</div><p>For example, in the past 10 weeks, the market voted to buy GOOG stock six times and sell four times. During this period, GOOG saw an upward trajectory. For brevity, we can label this sequence as 6-4-U. What's notable here is that, in 64.18% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1.94%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在过去 10 周中，市场对 GOOG 股票的买入投票 6 次，卖出投票 4 次。在此期间，GOOG 呈现出上升的轨迹。为了简洁起见，我们可以将这一序列标记为 6-4-U。值得注意的是，在 64.18% 的情况下，下一周的价格走势会出现上涨，平均回报为 1.94%。</p>
</div><p>Obviously, it's important that any trading proposition on paper must beat the baseline performance; in this case, the chance that a long position in GOOG stock will rise on any given week. This metric stands at a lofty 57.64%, which is a strong upward bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，任何纸面上的交易提议都必须超过基准表现；在这种情况下，即 GOOG 股票在任何给定周内上涨的机会。这个指标高达 57.64%，显示出强烈的上升偏向。</p>
</div><p>Despite this steep benchmark, the 6-4-U statistically gives bullish traders an edge. Therefore, speculators may be justified in taking a shot here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这个基准很高，6-4-U 在统计上给了看涨交易者一个优势。因此，投机者可能有理由在这里尝试一下。</p>
</div><h2>Taking What Jittery Market Makers Are Willing To Give</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利用市场制造者愿意给予的机会</h2>
</div><p>If you believe in the empirical case over the technical, there are two multi-leg options strategies that stand out. Both are bull call spreads, which involve buying a call and simultaneously selling a call at a higher strike price. The net debit (long debit minus short credit) paid also doubles as the most you can lose in the trade. Of course, the idea is that the target security rises through the short (higher) strike price at expiration to collect the maximum payout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信实证案例而非技术分析，有两种多腿期权策略脱颖而出。两者都是看涨价差策略，涉及购买一个看涨期权，同时在更高的执行价出售一个看涨期权。支付的净借款（长借款减去短信用）也成为你在交易中可能损失的最大金额。当然，想法是目标证券在到期时上涨超过短期（更高）执行价，以收取最大收益。</p>
</div><p>First, bullish traders may consider the 205.00/207.50 bull spread expiring Sept. 19. This transaction requires a net debit of $115, with a maximum profit of $135 or a payout of over 117%. Second, speculators may consider the 205/210 bull spread expiring Sep. 26. This transaction requires a net debit of $210, for the chance to generate a profit of $290, a payout of more than 138%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，看涨交易者可以考虑 205.00/207.50 的看涨价差，截止日期为 9 月 19 日。此交易需要净借款 115 美元，最大利润为 135 美元，或超过 117% 的收益。其次，投机者可以考虑 205/210 的看涨价差，截止日期为 9 月 26 日。此交易需要净借款 210 美元，有机会产生 290 美元的利润，收益超过 138%。</p>
</div><p>Both call spreads are intriguing, with the main difference being that the Sep. 26 spread requires more money upfront in exchange for an additional time buffer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两种看涨价差都很有趣，主要区别在于 9 月 26 日的价差需要更多的前期资金，以换取额外的时间缓冲。</p>
</div><p>In terms of the statistical viability of the 6-4-U sequence, running a one-tailed binomial test reveals a p-value of 0.1686. Basically, this means that there's a 16.86% chance that the implications of the signal could materialize randomly as opposed to intentionally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就 6-4-U 序列的统计有效性而言，进行单尾二项检验得出的 p 值为 0.1686。基本上，这意味着信号的含义有 16.86% 的机会是随机产生的，而不是故意的。</p>
</div><p>While it's a little bit more challenging to distinguish the 6-4-U's signal from randomness, the higher p-value stems from GOOG stock enjoying a super-high baseline probability. Ultimately, that should inspire confidence for bullish traders as the bears really need a convincing argument to move against this tide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然将 6-4-U 的信号与随机性区分开来有些困难，但较高的 p 值源于 GOOG 股票享有超高的基线概率。最终，这应该会激励看涨交易者，因为空头确实需要一个有说服力的论据来逆转这一趋势。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本内容中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的意见，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本内容仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的观点或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Coffee Chain Dutch Bros Could Potentially Brew Up A Sentiment Reversal</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：咖啡连锁店 Dutch Bros 可能会酝酿出情绪逆转</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Two Schools Of Thought Collide Compellingly For Tech Juggernaut Alphabet

- 谷歌母公司 Alphabet 第二季度营收达 964.3 亿美元，超出预期。  
- 投资者可能因市场不确定性而获利了结，导致股价下跌。  
- 技术分析显示 GOOG 股票可能形成头肩顶形态，需谨慎观察。

期权角：两种思想流派在科技巨头 Alphabet 上引人注目地碰撞