<p><em>要获得优势，您今天需要了解这些信息。</em></p>
<h4><strong>极度积极的情绪</strong></h4>
<p>请注意以下几点：</p>
<ul>
<li>本文讨论的是整体情况，而不是个别股票。HD 股票的图表用于说明这一点。</li>
<li>家得宝（Home Depot）很重要，因为它是美国最大的家居改善商品零售商。家得宝的收益反映了住房市场和消费者情绪的状态。</li>
<li>图表显示了今天早盘收益发布时的价格走势。</li>
<li>图表显示 HD 股票仍低于去年达到的高点。</li>
<li>家得宝的收益和指引大致符合市场预期。在我们的分析中，值得注意的是，趋势在整个季度中有所改善。七月是迄今为止最好的月份，同比上涨 3.3%。改善的趋势似乎是由于利率下降和消费者对家庭支出的意愿增加。收益还显示消费者主要进行小型项目，而放弃大型项目。</li>
<li>豪华住宅建筑商 <strong>Toll Brothers Inc</strong>（TOL）今天市场收盘后发布了收益。</li>
<li>令人惊讶的是，日本的 <strong>软银集团（SoftBank Group Corp – ADR）</strong> SFTBY 正在购买价值 20 亿美元的 <strong>英特尔公司（Intel Corp）</strong> INTC 股票。由于这被视为对英特尔的信心投票，INTC 股票大幅上涨。美国政府正在考虑持有英特尔约 10% 的股份。在我们的分析中，这是一个负面消息，因为英特尔原本应该免费获得约 109 亿美元的 CHIPS 法案资金，但现在英特尔可能不得不放弃 10% 的股份。</li>
<li>投资者受到昨天特朗普总统、泽连斯基总统和欧洲领导人会议传递的积极信号的鼓舞。最大的变化是特朗普总统现在愿意让美国参与对乌克兰的安全保障，而之前对此有所回避。</li>
<li>财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）计划将其对关税收入的估计提高到超过 3000 亿美元。股市对此持积极态度。</li>
<li>我们一直在与您分享股市情绪极为积极的消息。家得宝的趋势和住房数据（见下文部分）为已经极为积极的情绪增添了更多动力。</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>住房开工</strong></h4>
<p>数据强于预期。以下是详细信息：</p>
<ul>
<li>住房开工为 142.8 万户，预期为 131.1 万户。</li>
<li>建筑许可证为 135.4 万户，预期为 139 万户。</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>七大巨头资金流动</strong></h4>
<p>在早盘交易中，<strong>英伟达公司（NVIDIA Corp）</strong>（NVDA）和 <strong>特斯拉公司（Tesla Inc）</strong>（TSLA）的资金流动为正。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，<strong>苹果公司（Apple Inc）</strong>（AAPL）和 <strong>微软公司（Microsoft Corp）</strong>（MSFT）的资金流动为中性。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，<strong>亚马逊公司（Amazon.com, Inc.）</strong>（AMZN）、<strong>字母表公司 C 类（Alphabet Inc Class C）</strong>（GOOG）和 <strong>Meta 平台公司（Meta Platforms Inc）</strong>（META）的资金流动为负。</p>
<p>投资机会趋势</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，<strong>SPDR 标准普尔 500 ETF 信托（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust）</strong>（SPY）和 <strong>Invesco QQQ 信托系列 1（Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1）</strong>（QQQ）的资金流动为中性。</p>
<h4><strong>Momo 人群与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
<p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油，投资者可以获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR 黄金信托（SPDR Gold Trust）</strong>（GLD）。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares 白银信托（iShares Silver Trust）</strong>（SLV）。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>美国石油 ETF（United States Oil ETF）</strong>（USO）。</p>
<h4><strong>现在该做什么</strong></h4>
<p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑使用现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期的对冲作为保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
<p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
<p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表示全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表示需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强力保护。</p>
<p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有持有足够的现金，就无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
<h4><strong>传统的 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
<p>基于概率的风险回报调整在通胀情况下目前不利于长期战略债券配置。</p>
<p>那些希望坚持传统 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。那些愿意在投资中引入复杂性的人可以考虑将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而不是在此时作为战略头寸。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>

英特尔

<p>美国政府正在考虑收购英特尔 10% 的股份，分析师对此持负面看法，因为这可能会导致英特尔放弃部分 109 亿美元的《芯片法案》资金。与此同时，软银对英特尔的 20 亿美元投资被视为信心的投票，导致英特尔的股票上涨。住房数据和消费者支出的积极趋势被注意到，家得宝的收益反映出改善的市场情绪。投资者被建议保持长期持仓，同时考虑在投资组合中采取保护性策略</p>

<p><em>To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>要获得优势，您今天需要了解这些信息。</em></p>
</div><h4><strong>Extreme Positive Sentiment</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>极度积极的情绪</strong></h4>
</div><p>Note the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意以下几点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of HD stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Home Depot is important because it is the largest retailer of home improvement goods in the country. Home Depot earnings reflect the state of housing and consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>The chart shows the price action on earnings release in the premarket this morning.</li>
<li>The chart shows HD stock is still below the high reached last year.</li>
<li>Home Depot earnings and guidance are mostly inline with whisper numbers. In our analysis, it is worth noting that the trend has improved throughout the quarter. July was the best month of the year so far with comps up 3.3%. Improving trends appear to be due to lower interest rates and consumers' increasing willingness to spend on their homes. Earnings also showed consumers are mostly undertaking small projects and foregoing large projects.</li>
<li>Luxury home builder <strong>Toll Brothers Inc</strong> (TOL) reported earnings after market today.</li>
<li>In surprise news, <strong>SoftBank Group Corp – ADR</strong> SFTBY of Japan is buying $2B worth of <strong>Intel Corp</strong> INTC stock. INTC stock is jumping as this is seen as a vote of confidence. The U.S. government is considering taking about a 10% stake in Intel. In our analysis, this is a negative as Intel was supposed to get about $10.9B of CHIPS Act funds for free, but now Intel may have to give up a 10% stake instead.</li>
<li>Investors were encouraged by the positive signals coming from yesterday's meeting between President Trump, President Zelenskyy, and European leaders. The big change is that President Trump is now open to the U.S. participating in security guarantees for Ukraine after shying from them.</li>
<li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to raise his estimate of the amount of tariff revenue to be collected to be above $300B. The stock market is taking this as a positive.</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you that sentiment in the stock market is extremely positive. The Home Depot trend and housing data (see section below) are adding more fuel to the already extremely positive sentiment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>本文讨论的是整体情况，而不是个别股票。HD 股票的图表用于说明这一点。</li>
<li>家得宝（Home Depot）很重要，因为它是美国最大的家居改善商品零售商。家得宝的收益反映了住房市场和消费者情绪的状态。</li>
<li>图表显示了今天早盘收益发布时的价格走势。</li>
<li>图表显示 HD 股票仍低于去年达到的高点。</li>
<li>家得宝的收益和指引大致符合市场预期。在我们的分析中，值得注意的是，趋势在整个季度中有所改善。七月是迄今为止最好的月份，同比上涨 3.3%。改善的趋势似乎是由于利率下降和消费者对家庭支出的意愿增加。收益还显示消费者主要进行小型项目，而放弃大型项目。</li>
<li>豪华住宅建筑商 <strong>Toll Brothers Inc</strong>（TOL）今天市场收盘后发布了收益。</li>
<li>令人惊讶的是，日本的 <strong>软银集团（SoftBank Group Corp – ADR）</strong> SFTBY 正在购买价值 20 亿美元的 <strong>英特尔公司（Intel Corp）</strong> INTC 股票。由于这被视为对英特尔的信心投票，INTC 股票大幅上涨。美国政府正在考虑持有英特尔约 10% 的股份。在我们的分析中，这是一个负面消息，因为英特尔原本应该免费获得约 109 亿美元的 CHIPS 法案资金，但现在英特尔可能不得不放弃 10% 的股份。</li>
<li>投资者受到昨天特朗普总统、泽连斯基总统和欧洲领导人会议传递的积极信号的鼓舞。最大的变化是特朗普总统现在愿意让美国参与对乌克兰的安全保障，而之前对此有所回避。</li>
<li>财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）计划将其对关税收入的估计提高到超过 3000 亿美元。股市对此持积极态度。</li>
<li>我们一直在与您分享股市情绪极为积极的消息。家得宝的趋势和住房数据（见下文部分）为已经极为积极的情绪增添了更多动力。</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Housing Starts</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>住房开工</strong></h4>
</div><p>The data was stronger than expected. Here are the details:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据强于预期。以下是详细信息：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Housing starts came at 1.428M vs. 1.311M consensus.</li>
<li>Building permits came at 1.354M vs. 1.39M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>住房开工为 142.8 万户，预期为 131.1 万户。</li>
<li>建筑许可证为 135.4 万户，预期为 139 万户。</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>七大巨头资金流动</strong></h4>
</div><p>In early trade, money flows were positive in <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> (NVDA) and <strong>Tesla Inc</strong> (TSLA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，<strong>英伟达公司（NVIDIA Corp）</strong>（NVDA）和 <strong>特斯拉公司（Tesla Inc）</strong>（TSLA）的资金流动为正。</p>
</div><p>In early trade, money flows were neutral in <strong>Apple Inc</strong>(AAPL) and <strong>Microsoft Corp</strong>(MSFT).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，<strong>苹果公司（Apple Inc）</strong>（AAPL）和 <strong>微软公司（Microsoft Corp）</strong>（MSFT）的资金流动为中性。</p>
</div><p>In early trade, money flows were negative in <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (AMZN), <strong>Alphabet Inc Class C</strong> (GOOG), and <strong>Meta Platforms Inc</strong> (META).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，<strong>亚马逊公司（Amazon.com, Inc.）</strong>（AMZN）、<strong>字母表公司 C 类（Alphabet Inc Class C）</strong>（GOOG）和 <strong>Meta 平台公司（Meta Platforms Inc）</strong>（META）的资金流动为负。</p>
</div><p>Trending Investment Opportunities</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资机会趋势</p>
</div><p>In early trade, money flows were neutral in <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (SPY) and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1</strong> (QQQ).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，<strong>SPDR 标准普尔 500 ETF 信托（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust）</strong>（SPY）和 <strong>Invesco QQQ 信托系列 1（Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1）</strong>（QQQ）的资金流动为中性。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>Momo 人群与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
</div><p>Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油，投资者可以获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR 黄金信托（SPDR Gold Trust）</strong>（GLD）。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares 白银信托（iShares Silver Trust）</strong>（SLV）。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>美国石油 ETF（United States Oil ETF）</strong>（USO）。</p>
</div><h4><strong>What To Do Now</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>现在该做什么</strong></h4>
</div><p>Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑使用现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期的对冲作为保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
</div><p>You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
</div><p>A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表示全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表示需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强力保护。</p>
</div><p><strong>It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.</strong> When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有持有足够的现金，就无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>传统的 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
</div><p>Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于概率的风险回报调整在通胀情况下目前不利于长期战略债券配置。</p>
</div><p>Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些希望坚持传统 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。那些愿意在投资中引入复杂性的人可以考虑将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而不是在此时作为战略头寸。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Why We Believe The US Mulling A 10% Stake In Intel Is Negative

- Home Depot 的财报反映了住房和消费者情绪的状态。  
- 住房开工数据强于预期，达到 1.428M。  
- 投资者被积极市场情绪和资金流动所鼓舞。  

为什么我们认为美国考虑持有英特尔 10% 的股份是一个负面消息