<p>沃伦·巴菲特的投资方法常被称为价值投资，但他将自己的转变归功于查理·芒格，从寻找深度价值股票转向寻找价格合理的优秀公司。然而，当出现深度价值机会时，巴菲特总是迅速反应。他真的是终极的逆向投资者，购买那些基本面强劲但在市场上被冷落的股票。</p>
<p>上周，他因 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.07%）（BRK.B -0.07%）在 <strong>联合健康集团</strong>（UNH 1.21%）的投资而引起了轰动。让我们来看看是什么吸引了他的关注和资金，以及为什么这是一项典型的巴菲特投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>等待这一时刻</h2>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特和他的团队已经建立了一个价值近 2950 亿美元的股票投资组合。这个组合充满了价值股票，但巴菲特在购买股票时的重点是投资于优秀公司。换句话说，只有当股票由行业顶尖公司支撑时，它才是真正的价值。</p>
<p>如今的市场看起来被高估，股票交易接近历史最高点。<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，即经过通胀调整的市盈率，接近 38，略低于其 10 年高点。这正是在 2022 年市场暴跌之前。</p>
<p>这至少部分解释了为什么巴菲特一直持有创纪录的现金水平。截至第二季度，伯克希尔的现金和国债持有量为 3440 亿美元，略低于第一季度的金额，并且这是连续第 11 个季度的净卖出。他在最近的股东大会上表示：“如果我们现在在国债中有 3350 亿美元，我们宁愿有一些条件，使我们能够拥有大约 500 亿美元之类的东西。但这并不是商业运作的方式。我们通过不想在任何时候都完全投资而赚了很多钱。”</p>
<p>尽管如此，伯克希尔哈撒韦在第二季度新增了六个新头寸，并增加了另外六个头寸。但联合健康集团脱颖而出，因为它的投资额达到了 16 亿美元。</p>
<h2>逆向投资</h2>
<p>巴菲特在最近的股东信中清楚地解释了他的模型是如何运作的：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我们拥有十几个非常大且盈利丰厚的企业的小部分股份，这些企业都是家喻户晓的名字，如 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 和 <strong>穆迪</strong>。这些公司中的许多在其运营所需的净有形资产上获得非常高的回报……非常偶尔，它们以便宜的价格出售……通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；我们很少发现自己深陷机会之中。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>他还多次赞扬即将上任的首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔在这种时候果断行动。巴菲特过去多次成功地这样做。一个很好的近期例子是，伯克希尔哈撒韦在 2019 年底购买了 <strong>克罗格</strong> 的股票。它是一个行业领导者，进入门槛高，始终有需求，市盈率降到了大约 6。今天，这个市盈率是 19，股票几乎翻了三倍。</p>
<h2>优秀的股票，深度价值</h2>
<p>联合健康是一家医疗巨头。它是美国销售额排名前五的公司之一，仅次于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。这已经使它进入了巴菲特的投资范围。</p>
<p>他也是金融和保险公司的粉丝，因为一般来说，这种模式带来了大量不一定被花费的钱——对于金融公司如银行，这以存款的形式存在，而对于保险公司，则以保费的形式存在。保险公司可以投资其保费，并在未支付的索赔上获得高额利润，这符合巴菲特对那些不需要花费大量资金就能赚取大量资金的公司的兴趣。</p>
<p>最近，联合健康面临了一些问题，包括首席执行官更换和利润未能达到分析师预期。然而，保险公司有时会在成本上升之前落后于市场，无法提高保费。它现在正在这样做。但收入以健康的速度增长，第二季度同比增长 13%。它的盈利能力也很强，预计全年每股收益（EPS）为 16 美元。</p>
<p>联合健康的股票在过去一年中暴跌了 47%，市盈率为 13，是十年来的最低水平。随着价格的暴跌，股息收益率飙升至该股票通常未见的高度。今天，它的股息收益率为 2.8%，以这个更高的收益率获得将为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来多年的现金收益。</p>
<p>换句话说，这是巴菲特保存现金以便在能够迅速出手时购买的罕见机会。</p>

联合健康

<p>沃伦·巴菲特在联合健康集团进行了重大投资，收购了 16 亿美元的股份。尽管当前市场高企，巴菲特的策略仍然专注于以合理价格购买优秀公司，而联合健康凭借其强劲的基本面和 13 的市盈率，展现出深度价值的机会。过去一年，该股票下跌了 47%，导致其高达 2.8% 的股息收益率。巴菲特的投资方法强调在市场低迷时的耐心和战略性买入，这与他成功的逆向投资历史相一致</p>

<p>Warren Buffett's investing method is often touted as being in the value camp, but he credits Charlie Munger for changing his tune, from looking for deep-value stocks to finding great companies at fair prices. However, when a deep-value opportunity presents itself, Buffett is quick on the uptake. He's really the ultimate contrarian investor, buying stocks that have strong fundamentals that are on the outs with the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特的投资方法常被称为价值投资，但他将自己的转变归功于查理·芒格，从寻找深度价值股票转向寻找价格合理的优秀公司。然而，当出现深度价值机会时，巴菲特总是迅速反应。他真的是终极的逆向投资者，购买那些基本面强劲但在市场上被冷落的股票。</p>
</div><p>He made a splash last week with the news that <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.07%) (BRK.B -0.07%) took a position in <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.21%). Let's take a look at what attracted his attention and dollars, and why this is the ultimate Buffett play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，他因 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.07%）（BRK.B -0.07%）在 <strong>联合健康集团</strong>（UNH 1.21%）的投资而引起了轰动。让我们来看看是什么吸引了他的关注和资金，以及为什么这是一项典型的巴菲特投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk3MDIvYnVmZmV0dDEtdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829702%2Fbuffett1-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Waiting for this moment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>等待这一时刻</h2>
</div><p>Warren Buffett and his team have built up an equity portfolio worth nearly $295 billion at today's prices. It's chock-full of value stocks, but Buffett's focus when buying stocks is investing in great companies. In other words, it's only a real value if the stock is underpinned by a top industry player.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特和他的团队已经建立了一个价值近 2950 亿美元的股票投资组合。这个组合充满了价值股票，但巴菲特在购买股票时的重点是投资于优秀公司。换句话说，只有当股票由行业顶尖公司支撑时，它才是真正的价值。</p>
</div><p>Today's market looks inflated, with stocks trading near record highs. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> Shiller CAPE ratio, which is the P/E ratio cyclically adjusted for inflation, is close to 38, or right below its 10-year high. That was right before the market plunged in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今的市场看起来被高估，股票交易接近历史最高点。<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，即经过通胀调整的市盈率，接近 38，略低于其 10 年高点。这正是在 2022 年市场暴跌之前。</p>
</div><p>That explains, at least in part, why Buffett's been holding onto record levels of cash. Berkshire's cash and Treasury bill holdings sit at $344 billion as of the second quarter, slightly below the first-quarter amount, and it was the 11th straight quarter of net selling. &#34;If we've got $335 billion now in Treasuries, we would rather have conditions that are developed where we would have, like, $50 billion or something like that,&#34; he said at the recent shareholders' meeting. &#34;But that just isn't the way the business works. And we have made a lot of money by not wanting to be fully invested at all times.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这至少部分解释了为什么巴菲特一直持有创纪录的现金水平。截至第二季度，伯克希尔的现金和国债持有量为 3440 亿美元，略低于第一季度的金额，并且这是连续第 11 个季度的净卖出。他在最近的股东大会上表示：“如果我们现在在国债中有 3350 亿美元，我们宁愿有一些条件，使我们能够拥有大约 500 亿美元之类的东西。但这并不是商业运作的方式。我们通过不想在任何时候都完全投资而赚了很多钱。”</p>
</div><p>Still, Berkshire Hathaway took six new positions in the second quarter, in addition to increasing six others. But UnitedHealth Group stands out because it took a huge position, worth $1.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，伯克希尔哈撒韦在第二季度新增了六个新头寸，并增加了另外六个头寸。但联合健康集团脱颖而出，因为它的投资额达到了 16 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>The contrarian play</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>逆向投资</h2>
</div><p>Buffett explained pretty clearly how his model works in the most recent shareholders' letter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在最近的股东信中清楚地解释了他的模型是如何运作的：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>We own a small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly profitable businesses with household names such as <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, and <strong>Moody's</strong>. Many of these companies earn very high returns on the net tangible equity required for their operations...very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices...Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently, we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们拥有十几个非常大且盈利丰厚的企业的小部分股份，这些企业都是家喻户晓的名字，如 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 和 <strong>穆迪</strong>。这些公司中的许多在其运营所需的净有形资产上获得非常高的回报……非常偶尔，它们以便宜的价格出售……通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；我们很少发现自己深陷机会之中。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>He has also praised incoming CEO Greg Abel several times for acting decisively at such times. Buffett has done this many times successfully in the past. One excellent, recent example is when Berkshire Hathaway bought <strong>Kroger</strong> stock in late 2019. It's the industry leader in a space with high barriers to entry that will always be in demand, and it had fallen to a P/E ratio of around 6. Today, that's 19, and the stock has almost tripled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还多次赞扬即将上任的首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔在这种时候果断行动。巴菲特过去多次成功地这样做。一个很好的近期例子是，伯克希尔哈撒韦在 2019 年底购买了 <strong>克罗格</strong> 的股票。它是一个行业领导者，进入门槛高，始终有需求，市盈率降到了大约 6。今天，这个市盈率是 19，股票几乎翻了三倍。</p>
</div><h2>Great stock, deep value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>优秀的股票，深度价值</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is a healthcare giant. It's one of the top-five companies in the U.S. by sales, behind <strong>Amazon</strong>. That already put it in Buffett's wheelhouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康是一家医疗巨头。它是美国销售额排名前五的公司之一，仅次于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。这已经使它进入了巴菲特的投资范围。</p>
</div><p>He's also a fan of financial and insurance companies, since in general, the model brings in a lot of money that doesn't necessarily get spent -- for financial companies like banks, that's in the form of deposits, while for insurers, that's in the form of premiums. The insurance company can invest its premiums and make high profits on whatever isn't getting paid out as claims, and it fits Buffett's interest in companies that don't have to spend a lot of money to make a lot of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他也是金融和保险公司的粉丝，因为一般来说，这种模式带来了大量不一定被花费的钱——对于金融公司如银行，这以存款的形式存在，而对于保险公司，则以保费的形式存在。保险公司可以投资其保费，并在未支付的索赔上获得高额利润，这符合巴菲特对那些不需要花费大量资金就能赚取大量资金的公司的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>There have been a number of issues plaguing UnitedHealth recently, including a CEO switch and profits not keeping up with analyst expectations. However, insurance companies sometimes fall behind the curve as costs rise before they can raise premiums. It's doing that now. But revenue is growing at a healthy rate, up 13% year over year in the second quarter. It's also highly profitable, expecting $16 in full-year earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，联合健康面临了一些问题，包括首席执行官更换和利润未能达到分析师预期。然而，保险公司有时会在成本上升之前落后于市场，无法提高保费。它现在正在这样做。但收入以健康的速度增长，第二季度同比增长 13%。它的盈利能力也很强，预计全年每股收益（EPS）为 16 美元。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth stock has plunged 47% over the past year and trades at a P/E ratio of 13, its lowest levels in a decade. As the price has plummeted, the dividend yield has rocketed to heights not usually seen for this stock. Today it sits at 2.8%, and getting it at this higher yield will bring cash benefits for Berkshire Hathaway for years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康的股票在过去一年中暴跌了 47%，市盈率为 13，是十年来的最低水平。随着价格的暴跌，股息收益率飙升至该股票通常未见的高度。今天，它的股息收益率为 2.8%，以这个更高的收益率获得将为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来多年的现金收益。</p>
</div><p>In other words, this is the rare opportunity Buffett saves his cash to buy when he can quickly pounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，这是巴菲特保存现金以便在能够迅速出手时购买的罕见机会。</p>
</div>

这是沃伦·巴菲特期待已久的机会