<p>Fundstrat Global Advisors 的著名市场策略师 <strong>Tom Lee</strong> 向投资者发出警告，称市场目前对美联储可能降息的预期过于乐观。</p>
<h2>‘过早’ 降息可能会推动通胀</h2>
<p>在接受 Amit Investing 采访时，Lee 警告说，尽管经济显示出放缓的迹象，但持续的通胀仍然是一个重大问题。</p>
<p>他认为中央银行必须进行艰难的平衡。“一方面，经济显示出放缓的迹象，降低利率可能会提供支持，” Lee 解释道。</p>
<p>“另一方面，通胀仍然是一个问题，过早的降息可能会加剧这一问题。”</p>
<p>他认为市场过于乐观，表示：“我认为市场对未来的乐观预期有点过头。” Lee 强调，美联储应该保持 “数据驱动，而不是急于做出决定”，并建议只有在有更具体的通胀缓和和劳动力市场放软的证据后，才应采取重大行动。</p>
<h2>美联储政策是机构未在四月抄底的主要原因</h2>
<p>Lee 将这种不确定性与大型投资者的行为联系起来，指出这是机构在四月未能买入市场下跌的一个关键原因。</p>
<p>他解释说，“对美联储政策的不确定性是他们谨慎态度的主要因素”，再加上市场的高波动性。在那段时间，Lee 与机构的对话显示，尽管他们的情绪是 “谨慎但并不悲观”，但他们最终还是在 “等待更多的清晰度” 后才会积极部署资本。</p>
<p>这种谨慎、数据驱动的观点是 Fundstrat 方法的标志，Lee 表示这一方法是受到该公司在 2014 年对科技行业成功押注的影响。他指出，这一决定 “强化了超越传统指标、关注长期趋势的重要性。” 这种长期视角现在影响着他对宏观经济状况和美联储政策的当前评估。</p>
<h2>价格走势</h2>
<p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪 S&amp;P 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周五在盘前交易中上涨。根据 Benzinga Pro 数据，SPY 上涨 0.30%，报 $637.44，而 QQQ 上涨 0.24%，报 $564.65。</p>
<p><strong>下一步阅读</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Bill Ackman 欢呼货币市场基金创纪录的 $7.4 万亿，因 Jerome Powell 拒绝特朗普的降息要求</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p><em>图片来源于 Imagn</em></p>

景顺 QQQ

<p>基金战略顾问公司 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的市场策略师汤姆·李（Tom Lee）警告称，市场对美联储可能降息的预期过于乐观。他指出，过早降息可能会加剧通货膨胀，尽管经济放缓的迹象已经显现。李强调，美联储需要保持数据依赖性，不应急于做出决策。这种不确定性使得机构在投资时变得谨慎，因为他们在等待关于通货膨胀和劳动力市场状况的更明确信号。与此同时，SPDR 标准普尔 500 ETF 和景顺 QQQ 信托在盘前交易中小幅上涨</p>

<p>Prominent market strategist <strong>Tom Lee</strong> of Fundstrat Global Advisors has issued a caution to investors, stating that the market is currently pricing in too much optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fundstrat Global Advisors 的著名市场策略师 <strong>Tom Lee</strong> 向投资者发出警告，称市场目前对美联储可能降息的预期过于乐观。</p>
</div><h2>‘Premature’ Rate Cuts Could Fuel Inflation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘过早’ 降息可能会推动通胀</h2>
</div><p>During an interview with Amit Investing, Lee warned that while the economy is showing signs of slowing, persistent inflation remains a significant concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接受 Amit Investing 采访时，Lee 警告说，尽管经济显示出放缓的迹象，但持续的通胀仍然是一个重大问题。</p>
</div><p>He argued that the central bank must perform a difficult balancing act. “On one hand, the economy is showing signs of slowing down, and lower rates could provide a boost,” Lee explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为中央银行必须进行艰难的平衡。“一方面，经济显示出放缓的迹象，降低利率可能会提供支持，” Lee 解释道。</p>
</div><p>“On the other hand, inflation is still a concern, and premature rate cuts could exacerbate that.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“另一方面，通胀仍然是一个问题，过早的降息可能会加剧这一问题。”</p>
</div><p>He believes the market is getting ahead of itself, stating, “I think the market is pricing in a bit too much optimism.” Lee stressed that the Fed should remain “data-dependent and not rush into decisions,” suggesting significant action should only follow more concrete evidence of moderating inflation and a softening labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为市场过于乐观，表示：“我认为市场对未来的乐观预期有点过头。” Lee 强调，美联储应该保持 “数据驱动，而不是急于做出决定”，并建议只有在有更具体的通胀缓和和劳动力市场放软的证据后，才应采取重大行动。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Policy A Major Reason Why Institutions Did Not Buy April’s Dip</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储政策是机构未在四月抄底的主要原因</h2>
</div><p>Lee connected this uncertainty to the behavior of large-scale investors, noting it as a key reason why institutions were hesitant to buy the market dip in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 将这种不确定性与大型投资者的行为联系起来，指出这是机构在四月未能买入市场下跌的一个关键原因。</p>
</div><p>He explained that “the uncertainty around the Fed’s policy was a major factor” for their cautious stance, alongside high market volatility. During that period, Lee’s conversations with institutions revealed that while their sentiment was “cautious, but not bearish,” they were ultimately “waiting for more clarity” before deploying capital aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他解释说，“对美联储政策的不确定性是他们谨慎态度的主要因素”，再加上市场的高波动性。在那段时间，Lee 与机构的对话显示，尽管他们的情绪是 “谨慎但并不悲观”，但他们最终还是在 “等待更多的清晰度” 后才会积极部署资本。</p>
</div><p>This cautious, data-driven view is a hallmark of Fundstrat’s approach, which Lee said was shaped by the firm's successful 2014 bet on the technology sector. That decision, he noted, “reinforced the importance of looking beyond traditional metrics and focusing on secular trends.” This long-term perspective now informs his current assessment of macroeconomic conditions and Fed policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种谨慎、数据驱动的观点是 Fundstrat 方法的标志，Lee 表示这一方法是受到该公司在 2014 年对科技行业成功押注的影响。他指出，这一决定 “强化了超越传统指标、关注长期趋势的重要性。” 这种长期视角现在影响着他对宏观经济状况和美联储政策的当前评估。</p>
</div><h2>Price Action</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格走势</h2>
</div><p>The <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ, which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.30% at $637.44, while the QQQ advanced 0.24% to $564.65, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> QQQ，分别跟踪 S&amp;P 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数，周五在盘前交易中上涨。根据 Benzinga Pro 数据，SPY 上涨 0.30%，报 $637.44，而 QQQ 上涨 0.24%，报 $564.65。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>下一步阅读</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Bill Ackman Cheers Money Market Funds Hitting Record $7.4 Trillion As Jerome Powell Snubs Trump’s Rate Cut Demands</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Bill Ackman 欢呼货币市场基金创纪录的 $7.4 万亿，因 Jerome Powell 拒绝特朗普的降息要求</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Image via Imagn</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 Imagn</em></p>
</div>

Tom Lee Says Market Is Too 'Optimistic' About Rate Cuts: 'Premature Rate Cuts Could Exacerbate' Inflation

- Fundstrat 的市场策略师汤姆·李警告投资者，市场对美联储降息的乐观预期过高。  
- 他指出，经济放缓与持续的通胀构成了美联储的挑战，过早降息可能加剧通胀。  
- 李强调，美联储应保持数据依赖，等待更明确的经济信号再做决策。  

汤姆·李认为市场对降息的预期过于乐观：过早的降息可能会加剧通货膨胀