<p>从 2000 年 3 月到 2002 年 10 月，纳斯达克指数下跌了 76%，降至 1,139 点。这被称为互联网泡沫崩溃。今天类似的重置将使市场下跌 16,000 点，降至 5,000 点。如果再次发生这样的情况，可能会有几个触发因素：类似大萧条的经济崩溃、对股票严重高估的认知，或是恶性通货膨胀。</p>
<ul>
<li>像互联网时代那样的市场崩溃将使纳斯达克今天下跌 16,000 点。</li>
<li>然而，今年有一个重要的不同之处。</li>
<li>参加这个测验，看看你是否在退休的轨道上。（赞助）</li>
</ul>
<p>互联网泡沫崩溃的异常之处在于，美国经济是健康的。2000 年的国内生产总值为 10.3 万亿美元，2002 年接近 11 万亿美元。宏观经济因素并不是导致市场下跌的原因。</p>
<p>在互联网泡沫时期，首次公开募股（IPO）可以以其初始估值的三倍开盘。一些最大的公司在一年内就未能维持运营。最著名的包括 theGlobe.com、Webvan、eToys 和 Infospace。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg"/></p>
<p>现在的巨头股票价格也大幅下跌。微软公司（NASDAQ: MSFT）从 2000 年初的 59 美元下跌至 2002 年初的 29 美元。今天，它的交易价格为 505 美元。亚马逊公司（NASDAQ: AMZN）在同一时期从 4 美元跌至 0.55 美元。今天的交易价格为 221 美元。事实上，这两家公司在此期间并没有接近崩溃。实际上，它们的业务相对健康。</p>
<p>在互联网泡沫崩溃期间，许多自成立以来就亏损的公司在首次公开募股后仍然持续亏损，并且在它们经营的每一天都在亏损，直到耗尽资金。在数百个案例中，通过首次公开募股筹集的资金在不到一年内就被耗尽。</p>
<h2>今年有所不同</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg"/></p>
<p>然而，今年有一个重要的不同之处。28 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明股市价格昂贵。虽然这确实很高，但并不是。它可能比历史平均水平高出 20%。</p>
<p>基于人工智能（AI）的估值推动了一些主要股票的上涨。微软的股价比 2025 年的低点高出近 40%。然而，自 2022 年底以来，它的股价已经翻了一番。大部分原因是市场预期人工智能将使其收入达到前所未有的水平。人工智能股票已经开始重置。如果对人工智能增长的预测显著放缓，像微软这样的公司的股票可能会下跌一半。依赖人工智能作为主要收入增长来源的小公司可能会下跌得更多。</p>
<p>对纳斯达克的最终挑战是由关税驱动的恶性通货膨胀。如果消费者物价指数（CPI）以卡特总统时期的速度增长，将会摧毁经济。1980 年第一季度的 CPI 超过 18%。</p>
<p>如果纳斯达克发生剧烈重置，那将不是意外。</p>
<p>亿万富翁拉里·芬克表示金融系统 “安全稳健”——他是对的吗？</p>
<p>纳斯达克在互联网泡沫崩溃中将下跌 16,000 点的文章最初出现在 24/7 Wall St.。</p>

微软

<p>潜在的市场崩盘可能类似于互联网泡沫时代，纳斯达克指数可能下跌 16,000 点，降至 5,000 点。与过去不同的是，目前的估值受到人工智能预期的驱动，前瞻市盈率为 28，显示市场相对昂贵。如果人工智能的增长预期放缓，微软等主要股票可能会出现显著下跌。此外，由关税引发的超级通货膨胀构成威胁，令人想起 1980 年代。互联网泡沫崩盘的特点是公司在首次公开募股后亏损，如果经济状况恶化，这种情况可能会重演</p>

<p>From March 2000 to October 2002, the Nasdaq dropped 76% to 1,139. It was called the dot-com crash. A similar reset today would take the market down by 16,000 points to 5,000. If it were to happen again, there would be one of a few triggers: a Great Recession-like economic collapse, a perception that stocks had become wildly overvalued, or hyperinflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2000 年 3 月到 2002 年 10 月，纳斯达克指数下跌了 76%，降至 1,139 点。这被称为互联网泡沫崩溃。今天类似的重置将使市场下跌 16,000 点，降至 5,000 点。如果再次发生这样的情况，可能会有几个触发因素：类似大萧条的经济崩溃、对股票严重高估的认知，或是恶性通货膨胀。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A market crash like in the dot-com era would take the Nasdaq down by 16,000 points today.</li>
<li>This year has one important difference, however.</li>
<li>Take this quiz to see if you’re on track to retire. (sponsored)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>像互联网时代那样的市场崩溃将使纳斯达克今天下跌 16,000 点。</li>
<li>然而，今年有一个重要的不同之处。</li>
<li>参加这个测验，看看你是否在退休的轨道上。（赞助）</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The unusual thing about the dot-com crash was that the U.S. economy was healthy. Gross domestic product was $10.3 trillion in 2000 and almost $11 trillion in 2002. Macroeconomic factors are not what brought the market down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>互联网泡沫崩溃的异常之处在于，美国经济是健康的。2000 年的国内生产总值为 10.3 万亿美元，2002 年接近 11 万亿美元。宏观经济因素并不是导致市场下跌的原因。</p>
</div><p>Initial public offerings (IPOs) during the dot-com period could open at triple their initial valuation. Some of the largest did not stay in business more than a year. The most well-known were theGlobe.com, Webvan, eToys, and Infospace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互联网泡沫时期，首次公开募股（IPO）可以以其初始估值的三倍开盘。一些最大的公司在一年内就未能维持运营。最著名的包括 theGlobe.com、Webvan、eToys 和 Infospace。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Follow-Our-500000-AI-Portfolio-3.jpg"/></p>
<p>The price of stocks that are now megacaps dropped sharply as well. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) declined from $59 in early 2000 to $29 in early 2002. Today, it trades at $505. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) fell from $4 to $0.55 over the same period. It trades at $221 today. The fact of the matter is that neither company came near to a collapse during the period. In fact, their businesses were relatively healthy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在的巨头股票价格也大幅下跌。微软公司（NASDAQ: MSFT）从 2000 年初的 59 美元下跌至 2002 年初的 29 美元。今天，它的交易价格为 505 美元。亚马逊公司（NASDAQ: AMZN）在同一时期从 4 美元跌至 0.55 美元。今天的交易价格为 221 美元。事实上，这两家公司在此期间并没有接近崩溃。实际上，它们的业务相对健康。</p>
</div><p>What happened during the dot-com crash is that many companies that had lost money since their founding continued to lose money until after their IPOs, and did so every day they stayed in business until they ran out of money. In hundreds of cases, money raised by IPOs was buried in less than a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互联网泡沫崩溃期间，许多自成立以来就亏损的公司在首次公开募股后仍然持续亏损，并且在它们经营的每一天都在亏损，直到耗尽资金。在数百个案例中，通过首次公开募股筹集的资金在不到一年内就被耗尽。</p>
</div><h2>This Year Is Different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今年有所不同</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/imageForEntry11-6mS.jpg"/></p>
<p>This year has one important difference, however. A forward multiple of 28 signals that the stock market is rich. While this is rich, it is not. It might be 20% higher than the historic average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年有一个重要的不同之处。28 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明股市价格昂贵。虽然这确实很高，但并不是。它可能比历史平均水平高出 20%。</p>
</div><p>Valuations based on artificial intelligence (AI) have driven up some major stocks. Microsoft is almost 40% higher than it was at the 2025 low. However, it has more than doubled since late 2022. Much of this is the expectation that AI will drive its revenue higher than ever before. AI stocks have already begun to reset. If the forecast for AI growth slows considerably, the stocks of companies like Microsoft could drop by half. Smaller companies that rely on AI for most of their revenue growth could drop more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于人工智能（AI）的估值推动了一些主要股票的上涨。微软的股价比 2025 年的低点高出近 40%。然而，自 2022 年底以来，它的股价已经翻了一番。大部分原因是市场预期人工智能将使其收入达到前所未有的水平。人工智能股票已经开始重置。如果对人工智能增长的预测显著放缓，像微软这样的公司的股票可能会下跌一半。依赖人工智能作为主要收入增长来源的小公司可能会下跌得更多。</p>
</div><p>The final challenge to the Nasdaq is tariff-driven hyperinflation. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were to grow at the rate it did under President Carter, it would decimate the economy. The CPI was over 18% in the first quarter of 1980.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对纳斯达克的最终挑战是由关税驱动的恶性通货膨胀。如果消费者物价指数（CPI）以卡特总统时期的速度增长，将会摧毁经济。1980 年第一季度的 CPI 超过 18%。</p>
</div><p>If the Nasdaq has a hard reset, it won’t be an accident.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果纳斯达克发生剧烈重置，那将不是意外。</p>
</div><p>Billionaire Larry Fink Says Financial Systems Are ‘Safe and Sound’—Is He Right?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁拉里·芬克表示金融系统 “安全稳健”——他是对的吗？</p>
</div><p>The post Nasdaq Would Drop 16,000 in Dot-Com Era Market Crash appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克在互联网泡沫崩溃中将下跌 16,000 点的文章最初出现在 24/7 Wall St.。</p>
</div>

Nasdaq Would Drop 16,000 in Dot-Com Era Market Crash

- 纳斯达克在 2000 年至 2002 年间下跌 76%，称为互联网泡沫崩溃。  
- 如果今天发生类似崩溃，纳斯达克将下跌 16,000 点至 5,000 点。  
- 当前市场估值高，AI 驱动的股票可能面临大幅下跌风险。  

纳斯达克指数在互联网泡沫时代的市场崩溃中可能会跌至 16,000 点