<p><strong>Trade Desk</strong>（TTD -0.45%）长期以来被视为投资数字广告增长的最纯粹方式之一，尤其是在谷歌、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的围墙花园之外。但在 8 月 8 日，该股经历了历史上最大单日跌幅，跌幅近 39%，原因是发布的季度业绩令华尔街感到震惊。</p>
<p>对于一个刚在 7 月加入标准普尔 500 指数的公司来说，这一崩溃是戏剧性的。这也提出了一个简单但重要的问题，长期投资者该如何看待这家科技公司接下来的发展？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MzgvY29uZnVzZWQtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MzgvY29uZnVzZWQtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么股票会大幅下跌？</h2>
<p>Trade Desk 多年来一直是增长的宠儿，得益于其持续超出预期的业绩记录。但最近，这家程序化广告公司并没有那么顺利。</p>
<p>需要注意的一点是，增长最近有所放缓。2025 年第二季度，收入同比增长 19%，达到 6.94 亿美元，但这一增长率明显低于之前的水平。管理层预计第三季度收入至少为 7.17 亿美元，意味着仅有 14% 的增长——对于一只习惯于满足或超出投资者预期的股票来说，这一降幅相当明显。</p>
<p>多个因素导致了增长放缓。首先，公司在向其人工智能（AI）平台 Kokai 过渡方面进展缓慢，这本质上是执行问题。然而，更大的挑战在于竞争环境的加剧。</p>
<p>例如，Amazon 正在迅速扩展其广告业务，利用其连接电视（CTV）和庞大的生态系统。与 Trade Desk 不同，Trade Desk 将自己定位为广告主的中立平台，而 Amazon 则同时拥有供应和销售渠道。这种垂直整合使其在数据和规模上具有优势，许多人担心这可能会侵蚀 Trade Desk 的护城河。</p>
<p>在其财报发布期间，广告技术公司宣布了一项重大管理变动，长期首席财务官 Laura Schenkein 将在本月晚些时候辞职，董事会成员 Alex Kayyal 将接任。虽然 Schenkein 将在年底前继续留任以支持过渡，但这一时机让市场感到不安。投资者通常将困难时期突然更换首席财务官视为不稳定的信号。</p>
<p>简而言之，Trade Desk 还有很多工作要做，以向投资者证明其当前的挑战是暂时的，而非结构性的问题。</p>
<h2>从更大的视角看</h2>
<p>虽然短期内面临更高的执行风险，但从长远来看，值得放眼更大的局面。</p>
<p>首先，Trade Desk 仍然是全球最大的独立需求方平台（DSP），因此其领导地位至少在目前仍然保持。该公司作为 “反围墙花园” 的定位继续受到希望获得透明度和控制权的广告主的共鸣。</p>
<p>其次，其 AI 引擎 Kokai 正在获得采用（尽管速度不及投资者的期望）。AI 技术的进步是不可逆转的趋势，因此 Trade Desk 的定位仍然是正确的前进方向。</p>
<p>第三，也是最重要的一点，它正乘着一些最重要的长期顺风，比如零售媒体和连接电视。即使竞争激烈，这些细分市场的增长速度远快于更广泛的广告市场，因此将会有多个参与者成功的机会。</p>
<p>换句话说，该公司的长期论点并没有消失。问题在于投资者是否愿意忍受短期的不确定性，因为公司正在努力解决其问题。</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么？</h2>
<p>Trade Desk 的崩溃是痛苦的，突显了竞争、执行和估值方面的真实风险。然而，该公司仍然处于广告领域两个最重要的长期转变的核心：向开放互联网的迁移以及零售媒体和连接电视的崛起。</p>
<p>对于具有长期视野的投资者来说，这种抛售是一个机会。不过，他们在对公司转型有更清晰的视野之前不应采取行动。相反，投资者应关注这些领域，因为 Trade Desk 正在应对其挑战。</p>
<ul>
<li>下一个财报电话会议：管理层是捍卫还是进一步调整指引？</li>
<li>首席财务官过渡：Kayyal 能否迅速确立自己的地位并帮助首席执行官重新获得投资者信任？</li>
<li>竞争：Amazon、谷歌以及像 <strong>Netflix</strong> 或 <strong>Roku</strong> 这样的流媒体公司在 CTV 中的定位将至关重要。</li>
</ul>
<p>只有在有明显改善的迹象时，投资者才应采取下一步行动。</p>

<p>Trade Desk 经历了有史以来最糟糕的一天，股价下跌近 39%，原因是季度业绩令人失望。该公司最近加入了标准普尔 500 指数，但面临着增长放缓和来自亚马逊的竞争加剧等挑战。尽管存在这些问题，Trade Desk 仍然是领先的独立需求方平台，并且有望从零售媒体和连接电视的趋势中受益。建议投资者在做出进一步投资决策之前，关注公司的业绩和管理层变动</p>

<p><strong>The Trade Desk</strong>(TTD -0.45%) has long been viewed as one of the purest ways to invest in the growth of digital advertising outside the walled gardens of Google, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>. But on Aug. 8, the stock suffered its steepest single-day decline in history, falling nearly 39% after posting quarterly results that rattled Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Trade Desk</strong>（TTD -0.45%）长期以来被视为投资数字广告增长的最纯粹方式之一，尤其是在谷歌、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Amazon</strong> 的围墙花园之外。但在 8 月 8 日，该股经历了历史上最大单日跌幅，跌幅近 39%，原因是发布的季度业绩令华尔街感到震惊。</p>
</div><p>For a company that had only just joined the S&amp;P 500 in July, the collapse was dramatic. It also raises a simple but important question for long-term investors: What's next for the tech company?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一个刚在 7 月加入标准普尔 500 指数的公司来说，这一崩溃是戏剧性的。这也提出了一个简单但重要的问题，长期投资者该如何看待这家科技公司接下来的发展？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MzgvY29uZnVzZWQtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829938%2Fconfused-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why did the stock fall so hard?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么股票会大幅下跌？</h2>
</div><p>The Trade Desk has been a growth darling over the years, thanks to its consistent track record of exceeding its guidance. But things haven't been that smooth for the programmatic advertising company lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Trade Desk 多年来一直是增长的宠儿，得益于其持续超出预期的业绩记录。但最近，这家程序化广告公司并没有那么顺利。</p>
</div><p>One thing to note is that growth has been decelerating recently. Revenue rose 19% year over year to $694 million in Q2 2025, but that growth rate marked a clear slowdown from prior periods. Management guided for at least $717 million in Q3 revenue, implying just 14% growth -- a sharp deceleration for a stock that has been used to meeting or exceeding investor expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的一点是，增长最近有所放缓。2025 年第二季度，收入同比增长 19%，达到 6.94 亿美元，但这一增长率明显低于之前的水平。管理层预计第三季度收入至少为 7.17 亿美元，意味着仅有 14% 的增长——对于一只习惯于满足或超出投资者预期的股票来说，这一降幅相当明显。</p>
</div><p>Several factors contributed to the slower growth. First, the company has been slow in transitioning toward its artificial intelligence (AI) platform, Kokai, which is essentially an execution issue. However, a bigger challenge lies ahead, stemming from an intensifying competitive environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多个因素导致了增长放缓。首先，公司在向其人工智能（AI）平台 Kokai 过渡方面进展缓慢，这本质上是执行问题。然而，更大的挑战在于竞争环境的加剧。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Amazon is rapidly expanding its advertising business, leveraging its connected TV (CTV) and huge ecosystem. Unlike The Trade Desk, which positions itself as a neutral platform for advertisers, Amazon owns both the supply and the sales channels. That vertical integration gives it advantages in data and scale that many fear could erode The Trade Desk's moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Amazon 正在迅速扩展其广告业务，利用其连接电视（CTV）和庞大的生态系统。与 Trade Desk 不同，Trade Desk 将自己定位为广告主的中立平台，而 Amazon 则同时拥有供应和销售渠道。这种垂直整合使其在数据和规模上具有优势，许多人担心这可能会侵蚀 Trade Desk 的护城河。</p>
</div><p>It didn't help that the adtech company announced a significant management change during its earnings release, where longtime CFO Laura Schenkein will step down later this month and board member Alex Kayyal will step into the role. While Schenkein will stay on through year-end to support the transition, the timing unsettled the market. Investors often interpret a sudden CFO change during a challenging stretch as a signal of instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其财报发布期间，广告技术公司宣布了一项重大管理变动，长期首席财务官 Laura Schenkein 将在本月晚些时候辞职，董事会成员 Alex Kayyal 将接任。虽然 Schenkein 将在年底前继续留任以支持过渡，但这一时机让市场感到不安。投资者通常将困难时期突然更换首席财务官视为不稳定的信号。</p>
</div><p>In short, The Trade Desk has a lot of work ahead of it to prove to investors that its current challenge is temporary, not structural.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，Trade Desk 还有很多工作要做，以向投资者证明其当前的挑战是暂时的，而非结构性的问题。</p>
</div><h2>Looking at the bigger picture</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从更大的视角看</h2>
</div><p>While short-term pain is real with higher execution risk, it is also worth zooming out to look at the longer-term picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然短期内面临更高的执行风险，但从长远来看，值得放眼更大的局面。</p>
</div><p>To start, The Trade Desk remains the largest independent demand-side platform (DSP) globally, so its leadership remains intact, at least for now. The company's positioning as the &#34;anti-walled garden&#34; continues to resonate with advertisers who want transparency and control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Trade Desk 仍然是全球最大的独立需求方平台（DSP），因此其领导地位至少在目前仍然保持。该公司作为 “反围墙花园” 的定位继续受到希望获得透明度和控制权的广告主的共鸣。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, its AI engine, Kokai, is gaining adoption (though not as fast as investors would like). The advancement of AI technology is an irreversible trend, so The Trade Desk's positioning remains the right direction forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，其 AI 引擎 Kokai 正在获得采用（尽管速度不及投资者的期望）。AI 技术的进步是不可逆转的趋势，因此 Trade Desk 的定位仍然是正确的前进方向。</p>
</div><p>Third and most importantly, it is riding some of the most significant secular tailwinds, such as retail media and CTV. Even if competition is fierce, these segments are growing far faster than the broader ad market, so there will be opportunity for more than one player to succeed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，也是最重要的一点，它正乘着一些最重要的长期顺风，比如零售媒体和连接电视。即使竞争激烈，这些细分市场的增长速度远快于更广泛的广告市场，因此将会有多个参与者成功的机会。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the company's long-term thesis hasn't evaporated. The question is whether investors are willing to stomach near-term uncertainty as the company works on solving its problems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，该公司的长期论点并没有消失。问题在于投资者是否愿意忍受短期的不确定性，因为公司正在努力解决其问题。</p>
</div><h2>What does it mean for investors?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么？</h2>
</div><p>The Trade Desk's collapse was painful, highlighting real risks in competition, execution, and valuation. However, the company remains at the heart of two of the most significant secular shifts in advertising: the migration to the open internet and the rise of retail media and connected TV.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Trade Desk 的崩溃是痛苦的，突显了竞争、执行和估值方面的真实风险。然而，该公司仍然处于广告领域两个最重要的长期转变的核心：向开放互联网的迁移以及零售媒体和连接电视的崛起。</p>
</div><p>For investors with a long-term horizon, this kind of sell-off is an opportunity. Still, they should not act until they have greater visibility on the turnaround. Instead, investors should monitor these areas as The Trade Desk addresses its challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于具有长期视野的投资者来说，这种抛售是一个机会。不过，他们在对公司转型有更清晰的视野之前不应采取行动。相反，投资者应关注这些领域，因为 Trade Desk 正在应对其挑战。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Next earnings call: Does management defend or reset guidance further?</li>
<li>CFO transition: Can Kayyal quickly establish himself and help the CEO regain investor trust?</li>
<li>Competition: How Amazon, Google, and streaming players like <strong>Netflix</strong> or <strong>Roku</strong> position themselves in CTV will be critical.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>下一个财报电话会议：管理层是捍卫还是进一步调整指引？</li>
<li>首席财务官过渡：Kayyal 能否迅速确立自己的地位并帮助首席执行官重新获得投资者信任？</li>
<li>竞争：Amazon、谷歌以及像 <strong>Netflix</strong> 或 <strong>Roku</strong> 这样的流媒体公司在 CTV 中的定位将至关重要。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Only with a clear sign of improvement should investors make their next move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有在有明显改善的迹象时，投资者才应采取下一步行动。</p>
</div>

Trade Desk 刚刚经历了其历史上最糟糕的一天。接下来会发生什么？