<p>2025 年 8 月 5 日，<strong>超微电脑</strong>（SMCI 0.40%）发布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的财年第四季度业绩。由于业绩和指引令人失望，该公司的股价下跌超过 20%。</p>
<p>自那时以来，股价开始回落。然而，也许尘埃尚未落定，这可能只是风暴来临前的平静。</p>
<p>有三个问题依然存在，这些问题可能会继续影响超微的增长、盈利能力和股价：市场份额下降、利润空间压缩，以及失去关键客户的威胁。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODAvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODAvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么 SMCI 的股票在财报发布后暴跌</h2>
<p>在收入和盈利方面，超微的 2025 财年第四季度业绩均未达到分析师的预期：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>分析师预测（2025 年第四季度）</th>
<th>实际结果（2025 年第四季度）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>60 亿美元</td>
<td>58 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>0.45 美元</td>
<td>0.41 美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：超微电脑。</p>
<p>按年计算，超微的第四季度收入仅增长了 7.5%，增速远低于前几个季度。更糟糕的是，该公司的调整后每股收益同比下降了 24%，降幅超出预期。</p>
<p>首席执行官 Charles Liang 可能将收入未达标归咎于收入确认延迟，将盈利未达标归咎于近期的关税上涨。不过，我认为市场将这些令人失望的结果视为竞争继续压制超微的信号。</p>
<p>除了令人失望的季度业绩外，公司还发布了令人失望的指引更新。全年收入指引为 330 亿美元，比报告的 2025 财年收入高出 50%，听起来可能令人印象深刻，但之前公司曾预计 2026 财年收入为 400 亿美元。</p>
<p>此外，2026 财年第一季度的指引预计收入在 60 亿到 70 亿美元之间，超微是否能达到其下调后的全年收入目标仍然存疑。</p>
<p>尽管公司的季度业绩未达标，但其年度收入超出预期，同比增长了 47%。不过，考虑到最新的放缓和收入及盈利能力的下降，我对反弹能否在几个季度内实现持怀疑态度。</p>
<h2>超微的增长、盈利能力和股价仍面临威胁</h2>
<p>超微的交易市盈率约为 25 倍，较 <strong>戴尔科技</strong>（DELL 0.81%）和 <strong>惠普企业</strong>（HPE 0.28%）等直接竞争对手的市盈率溢价。戴尔和惠普目前的市盈率均为 20 倍。</p>
<p>在过去，超微的估值溢价是合理的。毕竟，该公司是早期进入者，凭借与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.36%）的紧密关系迅速推出了尖端的 AI 服务器产品。然而，从那时起，竞争对手们获得了更大的优势。</p>
<p>这导致市场份额急剧下降，这是我目前对超微股票持谨慎态度的三个原因之一。在 2022 年至 2024 年间，该公司的 AI 服务器市场份额从至少 80% 下降至 40% 至 50% 之间。</p>
<p>未来可能会出现进一步的下降。上个月，<strong>美国银行</strong>（BofA）的分析师表示，竞争对手戴尔和惠普在赢得企业客户的新业务方面处于更有利的位置。这是有道理的，因为他们与这些客户之间已有的关系。</p>
<p>市场份额的进一步流失可能导致销售增长的进一步放缓，但这还不是全部。激烈的竞争也可能对利润空间施加更大压力，这是我对该股票感到担忧的第二个原因。近年来，超微的毛利率已从 18% 缩减至 9.5%。</p>
<p>进一步的压缩是可能的。早在 6 月，<strong>KeyBanc</strong> 的分析师就指出，缺乏产品差异化意味着超微必须通过价格竞争来维持更高的增长。这对利润空间的影响可能会抵消销售复苏的积极影响。</p>
<p>更重要的是，超微还有另一个长期存在的风险，这也让我对未来的表现感到担忧：失去主要客户的风险。据报道，像 <strong>CoreWeave</strong> 和 X.ai 这样的关键客户已开始向戴尔下订单。如果这些客户完全转向竞争对手满足其 AI 服务器需求，这可能会对超微未来的收入和盈利产生重大影响。</p>
<h2>总结：我将保持观望</h2>
<p>如果上述问题导致进一步的增长放缓和/或盈利能力下降，超微股价的影响可能会很大。</p>
<p>在过去 12 个月中，该股票的交易价格最低曾达到每股 17.25 美元。如果季度业绩继续令人失望，管理层不断下调预期，而 SMCI 相对于戴尔和惠普的估值溢价继续下降，超微可能会回落到这一历史低点。</p>
<p>鉴于这些风险，我将选择观望——至少在后续发展出现之前，以帮助缓解我的担忧。</p>

超微电脑

<p>超微电脑的股票在 2025 财年第四季度业绩令人失望后下跌超过 20%，其收入和盈利未能达到分析师的预期。主要问题包括市场份额下降、利润空间压缩以及可能失去主要客户。该公司对 2026 财年的收入指引已被下调，引发了对未来增长和盈利能力的担忧。分析师指出，戴尔和 HPE 等竞争对手的市场定位更为有利，进一步威胁到超微的市场地位。鉴于这些挑战，作者建议目前不要在 SMCI 股票下跌时买入</p>

<p>On Aug. 5, 2025, <strong>Super Micro Computer</strong>(SMCI 0.40%) released results for the company's fiscal fourth quarter, ending June 30, 2025. The artificial intelligence (AI) server maker's shares fell by over 20% on disappointing results and guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 8 月 5 日，<strong>超微电脑</strong>（SMCI 0.40%）发布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的财年第四季度业绩。由于业绩和指引令人失望，该公司的股价下跌超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>Since then, the stock has started to retreat. However, perhaps the dust hasn't settled, and this could instead be the calm before the storm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，股价开始回落。然而，也许尘埃尚未落定，这可能只是风暴来临前的平静。</p>
</div><p>Three issues persist, all of which could continue to impact Supermicro's growth, profitability, and the value of its shares: falling market share, squeezed margins, and the threat of losing key customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有三个问题依然存在，这些问题可能会继续影响超微的增长、盈利能力和股价：市场份额下降、利润空间压缩，以及失去关键客户的威胁。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODAvYWkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830380%2Fai.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why SMCI stock tanked after earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 SMCI 的股票在财报发布后暴跌</h2>
</div><p>On both revenue and earnings, Supermicro's Q4 FY2025 results fell short of analysts' expectations:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在收入和盈利方面，超微的 2025 财年第四季度业绩均未达到分析师的预期：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Analyst Forecast (Q4 2025)</th>
<th>Actual Results (Q4 2025)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$6 billion</td>
<td>$5.8 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS)</td>
<td>$0.45</td>
<td>$0.41</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>分析师预测（2025 年第四季度）</th>
<th>实际结果（2025 年第四季度）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>60 亿美元</td>
<td>58 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>0.45 美元</td>
<td>0.41 美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Super Micro Computer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：超微电脑。</p>
</div><p>On a year-over-year basis, Supermicro's Q4 revenue increased by only 7.5%, a far slower pace than in prior quarters. Even worse, the company's adjusted EPS fell by 24% year over year, a wider-than-expected decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按年计算，超微的第四季度收入仅增长了 7.5%，增速远低于前几个季度。更糟糕的是，该公司的调整后每股收益同比下降了 24%，降幅超出预期。</p>
</div><p>CEO Charles Liang may have blamed the revenue miss on delayed revenue recognition and the earnings miss on recent tariff hikes. Still, I believe the market took these disappointing results as a sign that the competition continues to get the better of Supermicro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官 Charles Liang 可能将收入未达标归咎于收入确认延迟，将盈利未达标归咎于近期的关税上涨。不过，我认为市场将这些令人失望的结果视为竞争继续压制超微的信号。</p>
</div><p>Alongside disappointing quarterly results, the company also released disappointing updates to guidance. Full-year revenue guidance of $33 billion, or 50% above reported FY2025 revenue, may sound impressive, but previously, the company was guiding for $40 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了令人失望的季度业绩外，公司还发布了令人失望的指引更新。全年收入指引为 330 亿美元，比报告的 2025 财年收入高出 50%，听起来可能令人印象深刻，但之前公司曾预计 2026 财年收入为 400 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, with Q1 FY2026 guidance calling for between $6 billion and $7 billion in revenue, it's questionable whether Supermicro can even hit its walked-back revenue target for the full year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，2026 财年第一季度的指引预计收入在 60 亿到 70 亿美元之间，超微是否能达到其下调后的全年收入目标仍然存疑。</p>
</div><p>While the company's quarterly results fell short, its annual revenue came in ahead of expectations, growing by 47% over the prior fiscal year. Still, given the latest slowdown and decline in revenue and profitability, I'm skeptical that a rebound is just a few quarters away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司的季度业绩未达标，但其年度收入超出预期，同比增长了 47%。不过，考虑到最新的放缓和收入及盈利能力的下降，我对反弹能否在几个季度内实现持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><h2>Supermicro's growth, profitability, and stock price remain under threat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超微的增长、盈利能力和股价仍面临威胁</h2>
</div><p>Trading for around 25 times annual earnings, Supermicro trades at a premium to direct competitors like <strong>Dell Technologies</strong>(DELL 0.81%) and <strong>Hewlett Packard Enterprise</strong>(HPE 0.28%). Dell and HPE both currently trade for 20 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超微的交易市盈率约为 25 倍，较 <strong>戴尔科技</strong>（DELL 0.81%）和 <strong>惠普企业</strong>（HPE 0.28%）等直接竞争对手的市盈率溢价。戴尔和惠普目前的市盈率均为 20 倍。</p>
</div><p>In the past, Supermicro's valuation premium made sense. After all, this company was an early mover, capitalizing on its strong ties with <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.36%) to quickly bring out cutting-edge AI server products. However, since then, competitors have gained a greater edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去，超微的估值溢价是合理的。毕竟，该公司是早期进入者，凭借与 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA -0.36%）的紧密关系迅速推出了尖端的 AI 服务器产品。然而，从那时起，竞争对手们获得了更大的优势。</p>
</div><p>In turn, this has led to a sharp decline in market share, a trend that is one of three reasons why I'm cautious about Supermicro stock right now. Between 2022 and 2024, the company's share of the AI server market fell from at least 80% to between 40% and 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致市场份额急剧下降，这是我目前对超微股票持谨慎态度的三个原因之一。在 2022 年至 2024 年间，该公司的 AI 服务器市场份额从至少 80% 下降至 40% 至 50% 之间。</p>
</div><p>Further declines may lie ahead. Last month, analysts at <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BofA) argued that rivals Dell and HPE are better positioned to win new business from enterprise clients. This makes sense, given their existing relationships with such clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来可能会出现进一步的下降。上个月，<strong>美国银行</strong>（BofA）的分析师表示，竞争对手戴尔和惠普在赢得企业客户的新业务方面处于更有利的位置。这是有道理的，因为他们与这些客户之间已有的关系。</p>
</div><p>Additional market share losses could result in a further slowdown in sales growth, but that's not all. High competition could also place further pressure on margins, the second reason I'm concerned about this stock. In recent years, Supermicro's gross margins have shrunk from 18% to 9.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场份额的进一步流失可能导致销售增长的进一步放缓，但这还不是全部。激烈的竞争也可能对利润空间施加更大压力，这是我对该股票感到担忧的第二个原因。近年来，超微的毛利率已从 18% 缩减至 9.5%。</p>
</div><p>An additional squeeze is possible. Back in June, analysts at <strong>KeyBanc</strong> argued that a lack of product differentiation points to Supermicro having to compete on price to sustain higher growth. The impact of this on margins could counter the positive impact of a sales resurgence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步的压缩是可能的。早在 6 月，<strong>KeyBanc</strong> 的分析师就指出，缺乏产品差异化意味着超微必须通过价格竞争来维持更高的增长。这对利润空间的影响可能会抵消销售复苏的积极影响。</p>
</div><p>To top it all off, there's another long-standing risk with Supermicro that also makes me concerned about future performance: the risk of losing major customers. Reportedly, key customers like <strong>CoreWeave</strong> and X.ai have started placing AI server orders with Dell. If these customers fully switch over to a competitor for their AI server needs, this could materially affect Supermicro's future revenue and earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，超微还有另一个长期存在的风险，这也让我对未来的表现感到担忧：失去主要客户的风险。据报道，像 <strong>CoreWeave</strong> 和 X.ai 这样的关键客户已开始向戴尔下订单。如果这些客户完全转向竞争对手满足其 AI 服务器需求，这可能会对超微未来的收入和盈利产生重大影响。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom line: I'm sticking to the sidelines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>总结：我将保持观望</h2>
</div><p>If the aforementioned issues lead to an additional growth slowdown and/or drop in profitability, the impact on the price of Supermicro shares could be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果上述问题导致进一步的增长放缓和/或盈利能力下降，超微股价的影响可能会很大。</p>
</div><p>Over the past 12 months, this stock has traded for as low as $17.25 per share. Supermicro could retrace this past low if quarterly results continue to disappoint, management keeps walking back expectations, and SMCI's valuation premium to Dell and HPE continues to erode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 12 个月中，该股票的交易价格最低曾达到每股 17.25 美元。如果季度业绩继续令人失望，管理层不断下调预期，而 SMCI 相对于戴尔和惠普的估值溢价继续下降，超微可能会回落到这一历史低点。</p>
</div><p>Given these risks, I'm waiting things out -- at least until subsequent developments emerge that help to assuage my concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这些风险，我将选择观望——至少在后续发展出现之前，以帮助缓解我的担忧。</p>
</div>

3 Reasons Why I Wouldn't Buy the Dip on Super Micro Computer Stock Yet

- 超微计算机（SMCI）2025 财年第四季度业绩不及预期，股价下跌超过 20%。  
- 公司面临市场份额下降、利润压缩及失去关键客户的风险。  
- 分析师预计，若问题持续，股价可能进一步下滑。  

我暂时不会在超微电脑股票下跌时买入的三个原因