<p>上周，您可能看到 <strong>中通快递（开曼）有限公司</strong>（NYSE:ZTO）向市场发布了其中期业绩。早期反应并不积极，过去一周股价下跌了 3.8%，至 19.08 美元。总体来看，这并不是一个好结果。尽管收入为 120 亿人民币符合分析师的预测，但盈利低于预期，未达到法定估计，下降了 17%，每股收益为 2.37 人民币。分析师通常会在每次财报发布时更新他们的预测，我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化，或者是否有新的关注点。我们认为读者会发现查看分析师最新的（法定）财报后对明年的预测很有趣。</p>
<p>这项技术可能会取代计算机：发现 20 只正在努力使量子计算成为现实的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/403424124-earnings-and-revenue-growth-1-dark-2/1755864960106?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/403424124-earnings-and-revenue-growth-1-dark-2/1755864960106"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ZTO 收益和收入增长 2025 年 8 月 22 日</p>
<p>考虑到最新的业绩，中通快递（开曼）25 位分析师的当前共识是 2025 年收入为 487 亿人民币。这将反映出过去 12 个月收入合理增长 5.2%。法定每股收益预计在同一时期减少 6.6%，降至 10.19 人民币。在此次财报发布之前，分析师曾预测 2025 年收入为 499 亿人民币，每股收益（EPS）为 11.44 人民币。从中我们可以看出，最新业绩后情绪明显变得更加悲观，导致收入预测下调和每股收益估计大幅下降。</p>
<p>查看我们对中通快递（开曼）的最新分析</p>
<p>分析师对其目标价 23.58 美元没有做出重大调整，这表明下调预计不会对中通快递（开曼）的估值产生长期影响。然而，我们可以从这些数据得出其他结论，因为一些投资者在评估分析师目标价时也喜欢考虑估计的差异。对中通快递（开曼）存在一些不同的看法，最乐观的分析师将其估值为 28.18 美元，而最悲观的分析师则为每股 17.79 美元。估计的狭窄范围可能表明该业务的未来相对容易估值，或者分析师对其前景有强烈的看法。</p>
<p>现在从更大的角度来看，我们可以通过将这些预测与过去的表现和行业增长估计进行比较来理解这些预测。我们可以从最新的估计中推断出，预测预计中通快递（开曼）将继续其历史趋势，因为到 2025 年底年化收入增长 11% 大致与过去五年的 13% 年增长率相符。相比之下，我们的数据表明，类似行业中其他公司（有分析师覆盖）的收入预计每年增长 3.0%。因此，尽管预计中通快递（开曼）将保持其收入增长率，但其增长速度显然预计将快于更广泛的行业。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>最重要的是，分析师下调了他们的每股收益估计，显示出在这些结果发布后情绪明显下降。遗憾的是，他们也下调了收入估计，但最新的预测仍然暗示该业务将比更广泛的行业增长得更快。共识目标价没有实质性变化，表明该业务的内在价值在最新估计中没有发生重大变化。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，我们仍然认为，业务的长期发展轨迹对投资者来说更为重要。我们有来自多位中通快递（开曼）分析师的估计，直到 2027 年，您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。</p>
<p>此外，您还应该了解我们发现的中通快递（开曼）的 <strong>1 个警告信号</strong>。</p>

中通快递-W

中通快递

<p>中通快递（开曼）有限公司公布了令人失望的财报，每股收益（EPS）低于预期 17%，导致股价下跌 3.8%。分析师已调整预测，预计 2025 年收入为 487 亿人民币，增长 5.2%，但每股收益预计将下降 6.6%，降至 10.19 人民币。尽管进行了下调，但共识目标价仍维持在 23.58 美元，表明长期估值没有显著变化。总体而言，尽管中通预计将比行业增长更快，但在财报发布后市场情绪转为悲观</p>

<p>Last week, you might have seen that <strong>ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.</strong> (NYSE:ZTO) released its interim result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to US$19.08 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CN¥12b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 17% to hit CN¥2.37 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，您可能看到 <strong>中通快递（开曼）有限公司</strong>（NYSE:ZTO）向市场发布了其中期业绩。早期反应并不积极，过去一周股价下跌了 3.8%，至 19.08 美元。总体来看，这并不是一个好结果。尽管收入为 120 亿人民币符合分析师的预测，但盈利低于预期，未达到法定估计，下降了 17%，每股收益为 2.37 人民币。分析师通常会在每次财报发布时更新他们的预测，我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化，或者是否有新的关注点。我们认为读者会发现查看分析师最新的（法定）财报后对明年的预测很有趣。</p>
</div><p>This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这项技术可能会取代计算机：发现 20 只正在努力使量子计算成为现实的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/403424124-earnings-and-revenue-growth-1-dark-2/1755864960106" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/asset/chart/403424124-earnings-and-revenue-growth-1-dark-2/1755864960106"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ZTO Earnings and Revenue Growth August 22nd 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NYSE:ZTO 收益和收入增长 2025 年 8 月 22 日</p>
</div><p>Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 25 analysts is for revenues of CN¥48.7b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 5.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 6.6% to CN¥10.19 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥49.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥11.44 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到最新的业绩，中通快递（开曼）25 位分析师的当前共识是 2025 年收入为 487 亿人民币。这将反映出过去 12 个月收入合理增长 5.2%。法定每股收益预计在同一时期减少 6.6%，降至 10.19 人民币。在此次财报发布之前，分析师曾预测 2025 年收入为 499 亿人民币，每股收益（EPS）为 11.44 人民币。从中我们可以看出，最新业绩后情绪明显变得更加悲观，导致收入预测下调和每股收益估计大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对中通快递（开曼）的最新分析</p>
</div><p>The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$23.58, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ZTO Express (Cayman), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.18 and the most bearish at US$17.79 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对其目标价 23.58 美元没有做出重大调整，这表明下调预计不会对中通快递（开曼）的估值产生长期影响。然而，我们可以从这些数据得出其他结论，因为一些投资者在评估分析师目标价时也喜欢考虑估计的差异。对中通快递（开曼）存在一些不同的看法，最乐观的分析师将其估值为 28.18 美元，而最悲观的分析师则为每股 17.79 美元。估计的狭窄范围可能表明该业务的未来相对容易估值，或者分析师对其前景有强烈的看法。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of ZTO Express (Cayman)'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.0% per year. So although ZTO Express (Cayman) is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在从更大的角度来看，我们可以通过将这些预测与过去的表现和行业增长估计进行比较来理解这些预测。我们可以从最新的估计中推断出，预测预计中通快递（开曼）将继续其历史趋势，因为到 2025 年底年化收入增长 11% 大致与过去五年的 13% 年增长率相符。相比之下，我们的数据表明，类似行业中其他公司（有分析师覆盖）的收入预计每年增长 3.0%。因此，尽管预计中通快递（开曼）将保持其收入增长率，但其增长速度显然预计将快于更广泛的行业。</p>
</div><h2>The Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是，分析师下调了他们的每股收益估计，显示出在这些结果发布后情绪明显下降。遗憾的是，他们也下调了收入估计，但最新的预测仍然暗示该业务将比更广泛的行业增长得更快。共识目标价没有实质性变化，表明该业务的内在价值在最新估计中没有发生重大变化。</p>
</div><p>Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ZTO Express (Cayman) analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，我们仍然认为，业务的长期发展轨迹对投资者来说更为重要。我们有来自多位中通快递（开曼）分析师的估计，直到 2027 年，您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。</p>
</div><p>Plus, you should also learn about the <strong>1 warning sign</strong> we've spotted with ZTO Express (Cayman) .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，您还应该了解我们发现的中通快递（开曼）的 <strong>1 个警告信号</strong>。</p>
</div>

Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 发布中期业绩，股价下跌 3.8% 至 19.08 美元。  
- 收入符合预期，但每股收益低于预期，下降 17%。  
- 分析师下调了收益和收入预期，预计 2025 年收入增长 5.2%。  

盈利未达预期：中通快递（开曼）有限公司的每股收益低于预期 17%，分析师正在调整他们的预测