<p>自唐纳德·特朗普总统就职以来的七个月里，华尔街主要股票指数经历了相当大的波动。</p>
<p>总统在 4 月 2 日公布的关税和贸易政策导致基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.52%) 在 75 年内出现了第五大两日百分比下跌，同时也将 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 1.88%) 推入了一个全面的（但最终短暂的）熊市。</p>
<p>这一急剧下跌之后，唐纳德·特朗普于 4 月 9 日宣布对更高的 “互惠关税” 实施 90 天的暂停。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和永恒的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 1.89%) 对此做出了反应，创下了历史上单日最大点数上涨，并自此进入了似乎无法停止的反弹。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>特朗普总统发表国情咨文演讲。图片来源：官方白宫照片。</p>
<p>但关税只是特朗普政府可能影响华尔街股票的众多方式之一。</p>
<p>根据报道和特朗普内阁成员最近的声明，联邦政府正在考虑在一些全球领先的半导体公司中持有股权，包括 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC 5.64%)、<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 2.58%)（通常称为 “台积电”）、<strong>美光科技</strong>(MU 1.82%) 和 <strong>三星电子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)。虽然这一想法在纸面上可能引人注目，但它有可能在华尔街上树立一个危险的先例。</p>
<h2>商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克提议将 CHIPS 法案的拨款转化为股权</h2>
<p>在深入探讨提议的细节之前，确实需要一些背景信息。</p>
<p>三年前，即 2022 年 8 月，乔·拜登总统签署了《CHIPS 和科学法案》（通常称为 “CHIPS 法案”）。该法案授权联邦政府提供拨款，以鼓励国内半导体芯片的制造，并促进美国生物技术和清洁能源技术的创新。《CHIPS 法案》拨出了超过 520 亿美元用于支持美国芯片制造厂的建设和/或扩展，以及先进的半导体研发。</p>
<p>在特朗普总统于 3 月向国会联席会议发表国情咨文时，他称《CHIPS 法案》为 “可怕、可怕的事情”，并当时鼓励立法者停止该项目的资金。但由于美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克的影响，他的态度可能发生了变化。</p>
<p>在最近接受 CNBC 采访时，卢特尼克提出了一种 “要么接受，要么拒绝” 的提议，将 CHIPS 法案的拨款转化为联邦政府的股票股权。卢特尼克表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>拜登政府实际上是在免费给予英特尔，免费给予台积电，所有这些公司都在免费获得资金。唐纳德·特朗普将其转变为 “嘿，我们希望为这笔钱获得股权。如果我们要给你钱，我们希望分一杯羹。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>卢特尼克澄清了他的声明，指出这些股权不会为美国政府在这些企业中提供任何投票权。相反，这一切都是为了让美国人民在美国资金支持的企业中获得一份股份。</p>
<p>据报道，特朗普支持美国政府在交换 CHIPS 法案资金时获得股权的想法，独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Ind.-VT）也对此表示支持。桑德斯表示：“纳税人不应在没有任何回报的情况下向像英特尔这样的大型盈利公司提供数十亿美元的企业福利。”</p>
<p>如果这一提议得以推进，特朗普政府将持有英特尔高达 10% 的股份，估值约为 109 亿美元。还将对台积电、美光和三星进行数十亿美元的投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>政府持有股票可能是一个滑坡</h2>
<p>尽管特朗普政府将这些拨款转化为股权的提议有其逻辑依据，但也存在一些令人担忧的理由。</p>
<p>回顾过去作为未来的预测，确实有过联邦政府在上市公司中持有股权的先例。然而，这些先例与历史经济不稳定时期相关联。</p>
<p>例如，问题资产救助计划（TARP）在大萧条期间允许联邦政府在陷入困境的金融机构中持有股权。此外，部分航空公司在 2020 年和 2021 年 COVID-19 疫情高峰期间向美国财政部发行股票认股权证，以作为其获得财务援助的部分补偿。卢特尼克所提议的以营利为目的的股权持有将是一个新的且潜在危险的先例。</p>
<p>尽管商务部长告诉观众这些将是无投票权的股权，但特朗普政府仍然通过法律和财政政策直接影响芯片制造商。虽然联邦政府可能不会对高管薪酬方案进行投票，但它将对其所拥有的股票产生直接且不可否认的影响。这实际上是关于国会议员是否应该在通过直接影响这些股票的法律时拥有个别股票的辩论……只是提升到了另一个层次。</p>
<p>例如，可以有力地论证，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策远比在英特尔的 10% 投票权或在台积电、美光或三星的个位数投票权更具影响力。请原谅这个必要的双关语，但特朗普曾利用包括 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在内的芯片公司作为谈判筹码来达成贸易协议。没有任何东西可以阻止总统或他的政府成员利用这些谈判工具来影响企业战略和决策。</p>
<p>此外，在《芯片法案》通过三年后调整资金策略，可能会鼓励芯片制造商与美国政府保持距离。虽然在 2024 年，台积电、美光和三星分别获得了 66 亿美元、62 亿美元和 47.5 亿美元的补贴，但这三家公司并不一定需要这些资金来在美国建立或扩展其芯片制造业务。如果他们早知道有股权条款的可能性，他们可能不会同意接受任何资金。</p>
<p>即使是英特尔，在面对日益激烈的竞争和有机扩展其代工部门的高成本的重压下，也可能不会选择政府资金，如果这会导致被迫持有股权。在过去 12 个月中，英特尔的运营现金流超过了 100 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管讨论仍在进行中，且尚无定论，截至 8 月 20 日晚上写作时，特朗普政府可能成为华尔街一些领先半导体股票的股东，这一发展可能不会受到欢迎。</p>

三星电子

英特尔

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>特朗普政府正在考虑收购英特尔、台积电、美光和三星等主要半导体公司的股权，作为将《芯片法案》拨款转化为股票权益的提案的一部分。这一举措得到了商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和参议员伯尼·桑德斯的支持，旨在确保纳税人能够获得投资回报。然而，这种做法引发了人们对政府在私营公司中拥有股权的危险先例的担忧，这让人想起了过去在经济危机期间的干预</p>

<p>In the seven months since President Donald Trump's inauguration, Wall Street's major stock indexes have been taken on quite the ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自唐纳德·特朗普总统就职以来的七个月里，华尔街主要股票指数经历了相当大的波动。</p>
</div><p>The president's unveiling of his tariff and trade policy on April 2 spawned the fifth-biggest two-day percentage decline in the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.52%) in 75 years, as well as hurled the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 1.88%) into a full-fledged (but ultimately short-lived) bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统在 4 月 2 日公布的关税和贸易政策导致基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 1.52%) 在 75 年内出现了第五大两日百分比下跌，同时也将 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 1.88%) 推入了一个全面的（但最终短暂的）熊市。</p>
</div><p>This sharp downturn was followed by Donald Trump announcing a 90-day pause on higher &#34;reciprocal tariff rates&#34; on April 9. The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and ageless <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 1.89%) responded by logging their largest single-session point increases in history with this announcement and have been in a seemingly unstoppable rally ever since.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一急剧下跌之后，唐纳德·特朗普于 4 月 9 日宣布对更高的 “互惠关税” 实施 90 天的暂停。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和永恒的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 1.89%) 对此做出了反应，创下了历史上单日最大点数上涨，并自此进入了似乎无法停止的反弹。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC13aGl0ZS1ob3VzZS1waG90by1zdGF0ZS11bmlvbi1jb25ncmVzcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830462%2Fpresident-donald-trump-white-house-photo-state-union-congress.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>President Trump delivering his State of the Union address. Image source: Official White House Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统发表国情咨文演讲。图片来源：官方白宫照片。</p>
</div><p>But tariffs represent just one of the ways the Trump administration can potentially influence equities on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但关税只是特朗普政府可能影响华尔街股票的众多方式之一。</p>
</div><p>According to reports and recent statements made by a member of Trump's cabinet, the federal government is pondering equity stakes in some of the world's leading semiconductor companies, including <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC 5.64%), <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 2.58%) (commonly known as &#34;TSMC&#34;), <strong>Micron Technology</strong>(MU 1.82%), and <strong>Samsung Electronics</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%). While the rationale behind this idea might be intriguing on paper, it runs the risk of setting a dangerous precedent on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据报道和特朗普内阁成员最近的声明，联邦政府正在考虑在一些全球领先的半导体公司中持有股权，包括 <strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC 5.64%)、<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 2.58%)（通常称为 “台积电”）、<strong>美光科技</strong>(MU 1.82%) 和 <strong>三星电子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)。虽然这一想法在纸面上可能引人注目，但它有可能在华尔街上树立一个危险的先例。</p>
</div><h2>Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proposes converting CHIPS Act grants into equity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克提议将 CHIPS 法案的拨款转化为股权</h2>
</div><p>Before diving further into the proposed details, some background is sorely needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入探讨提议的细节之前，确实需要一些背景信息。</p>
</div><p>Three years ago, in August 2022, President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act (commonly known as the &#34;CHIPS Act&#34;) into law. This law authorizes grants from the federal government to encourage the domestic manufacture of semiconductor chips, as well as to promote biotechnology and clean-energy technology innovation within the U.S. More than $52 billion was set aside by the CHIPS Act to support the construction and/or expansion of chip fabrication plants in the U.S., as well as advanced semiconductor research and development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三年前，即 2022 年 8 月，乔·拜登总统签署了《CHIPS 和科学法案》（通常称为 “CHIPS 法案”）。该法案授权联邦政府提供拨款，以鼓励国内半导体芯片的制造，并促进美国生物技术和清洁能源技术的创新。《CHIPS 法案》拨出了超过 520 亿美元用于支持美国芯片制造厂的建设和/或扩展，以及先进的半导体研发。</p>
</div><p>During President Trump's State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in March, he referred to the CHIPS Act as a &#34;horrible, horrible thing,&#34; and encouraged lawmakers at the time to defund the program. But his tune may have changed, courtesy of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普总统于 3 月向国会联席会议发表国情咨文时，他称《CHIPS 法案》为 “可怕、可怕的事情”，并当时鼓励立法者停止该项目的资金。但由于美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克的影响，他的态度可能发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>In a recent interview with CNBC, Lutnick laid out something of a take-it-or-leave-it style proposal that would convert CHIPS Act grants into stock equity for the federal government. Said Lutnick:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近接受 CNBC 采访时，卢特尼克提出了一种 “要么接受，要么拒绝” 的提议，将 CHIPS 法案的拨款转化为联邦政府的股票股权。卢特尼克表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The Biden administration literally was giving Intel for free, and giving TSMC money for free, and all these companies just giving them money for free. Donald Trump turns that into saying, &#34;Hey, we want equity for the money. If we're going to give you money, we want a piece of the action.&#34;</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>拜登政府实际上是在免费给予英特尔，免费给予台积电，所有这些公司都在免费获得资金。唐纳德·特朗普将其转变为 “嘿，我们希望为这笔钱获得股权。如果我们要给你钱，我们希望分一杯羹。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Lutnick clarified his statements by noting that these equity stakes wouldn't provide the U.S. government with any voting power in these businesses. Instead, it would be all about the American people getting a stake in the businesses U.S. funds are supporting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢特尼克澄清了他的声明，指出这些股权不会为美国政府在这些企业中提供任何投票权。相反，这一切都是为了让美国人民在美国资金支持的企业中获得一份股份。</p>
</div><p>Trump has reportedly favored the idea of the U.S. government being given equity stakes in exchange for CHIPS Act funds, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (Ind.-VT) also voicing his support for such a move. &#34;Taxpayers should not be providing billons of dollars in corporate welfare to large, profitable corporations like Intel without getting anything in return,&#34; extolled Sanders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，特朗普支持美国政府在交换 CHIPS 法案资金时获得股权的想法，独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Ind.-VT）也对此表示支持。桑德斯表示：“纳税人不应在没有任何回报的情况下向像英特尔这样的大型盈利公司提供数十亿美元的企业福利。”</p>
</div><p>If this proposal were to move forward, the Trump administration would take up to a 10% stake in Intel, valued at roughly $10.9 billion. Multibillion-dollar stakes would also be made in TSMC, Micron, and Samsung.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这一提议得以推进，特朗普政府将持有英特尔高达 10% 的股份，估值约为 109 亿美元。还将对台积电、美光和三星进行数十亿美元的投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA0NjIvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWludmVzdC1idXktc2VsbC1mZWQtd2FsbC1zdHJlZXQtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830462%2Fnyse-floor-trader-stock-market-invest-buy-sell-fed-wall-street-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Government ownership of stocks can be a slippery slope</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政府持有股票可能是一个滑坡</h2>
</div><p>Though there's a logical argument to be found in the Trump administration's proposal to transform these grants into equity stakes, there are also reasons for concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特朗普政府将这些拨款转化为股权的提议有其逻辑依据，但也存在一些令人担忧的理由。</p>
</div><p>Looking to the past as a predictor of the future, there <em>have</em> been previous instances where the federal government took equity stakes in public companies. However, these prior occurrences correlate with periods of historic economic instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾过去作为未来的预测，确实有过联邦政府在上市公司中持有股权的先例。然而，这些先例与历史经济不稳定时期相关联。</p>
</div><p>For instance, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) gave the federal government the green light to take equity stakes in struggling financial institutions during the Great Recession. Additionally, select airline companies issued stock warrants to the U.S. Treasury during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 as partial compensation for the financial assistance they received. Equity stakes on a for-profit basis, as proposed by Lutnick, would be a new and potentially dangerous precedent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，问题资产救助计划（TARP）在大萧条期间允许联邦政府在陷入困境的金融机构中持有股权。此外，部分航空公司在 2020 年和 2021 年 COVID-19 疫情高峰期间向美国财政部发行股票认股权证，以作为其获得财务援助的部分补偿。卢特尼克所提议的以营利为目的的股权持有将是一个新的且潜在危险的先例。</p>
</div><p>Although the Commerce Secretary told viewers these would be nonvoting equity stakes, the Trump administration nevertheless passes the laws and fiscal policy that can directly impact chip manufacturers. While the federal government might not be voting on executive compensation packages, it'll have a direct and undeniable influence on the stock(s) it owns. This is effectively the same debate of whether members of Congress should be able to own individual stocks while passing laws that directly impact said stocks... just taken to another level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管商务部长告诉观众这些将是无投票权的股权，但特朗普政府仍然通过法律和财政政策直接影响芯片制造商。虽然联邦政府可能不会对高管薪酬方案进行投票，但它将对其所拥有的股票产生直接且不可否认的影响。这实际上是关于国会议员是否应该在通过直接影响这些股票的法律时拥有个别股票的辩论……只是提升到了另一个层次。</p>
</div><p>For example, a solid argument can be made that President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy is <em>far</em> more powerful than a 10% voting share in Intel, or a single-digit percentage voting share in TSMC, Micron, or Samsung. Pardon the necessary pun, but Trump has previously used chip companies, including <strong>Nvidia</strong>, as bargaining chips to negotiate trade deals. There would be nothing to stop the president or members of his administration from using these bargaining tools to influence corporate strategy and decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，可以有力地论证，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策远比在英特尔的 10% 投票权或在台积电、美光或三星的个位数投票权更具影响力。请原谅这个必要的双关语，但特朗普曾利用包括 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在内的芯片公司作为谈判筹码来达成贸易协议。没有任何东西可以阻止总统或他的政府成员利用这些谈判工具来影响企业战略和决策。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, adjusting the funding strategy for the CHIPS Act three years after its passage might encourage chip fabricators to keep their distance from the U.S. government. While subsidies of $6.6 billion, $6.2 billion, and $4.75 billion were awarded to TSMC, Micron, and Samsung, respectively, in 2024, none of these three companies necessarily need this funding to build/expand their chip fabrication presence on U.S. soil. If they had known that an equity stipulation was a possibility, they may not have agreed to a dime in funding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，在《芯片法案》通过三年后调整资金策略，可能会鼓励芯片制造商与美国政府保持距离。虽然在 2024 年，台积电、美光和三星分别获得了 66 亿美元、62 亿美元和 47.5 亿美元的补贴，但这三家公司并不一定需要这些资金来在美国建立或扩展其芯片制造业务。如果他们早知道有股权条款的可能性，他们可能不会同意接受任何资金。</p>
</div><p>Even Intel, which has struggled mightily under the weight of increasing competition and the high costs of organically building out its foundry division, may not have opted for government funding if it would have resulted in a forced equity stake. Over the trailing-12-month period, Intel has generated more than $10 billion in cash flow from its operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是英特尔，在面对日益激烈的竞争和有机扩展其代工部门的高成本的重压下，也可能不会选择政府资金，如果这会导致被迫持有股权。在过去 12 个月中，英特尔的运营现金流超过了 100 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Though discussions are ongoing and nothing is set in stone, as of this writing in the late evening of Aug. 20, the Donald Trump administration potentially becoming shareholders of some of Wall Street's leading semiconductor stocks likely wouldn't be a development to cheer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管讨论仍在进行中，且尚无定论，截至 8 月 20 日晚上写作时，特朗普政府可能成为华尔街一些领先半导体股票的股东，这一发展可能不会受到欢迎。</p>
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The Donald Trump Administration Is Pondering Equity Stakes in Intel, TSMC, Micron, and Samsung -- and It Sets a Dangerous Precedent

- 特朗普政府考虑在半导体公司中获得股权以替代 CHIPS 法案补助。  
- 此举可能影响市场，且存在潜在的风险和先例。  
- 政府股权可能影响公司决策，导致企业与政府关系紧张。

特朗普政府正在考虑持有英特尔、台积电、美光和三星的股权——这可能会设立一个危险的先例