<p>每个人都希望找到能够让他们成为百万富翁的股票，而早期购买 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 就能实现这一目标。如果你在 1995 年 8 月正好花 1455 美元购买了该公司的股票，现在你的投资组合中将会有七位数的美元资产。</p>
<p>这家消费电子巨头因其极受欢迎的产品和服务而成为全球标志，这些产品和服务带来了巨大的财务成功。然而，如果你是投资新手，可能会想知道未来是否会继续如此。</p>
<p>这只曾为投资者创造了可观财富的顶级科技股，是否是你未来成为百万富翁的机会？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5OTUvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="425" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5OTUvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>收入构成的变化</h2>
<p>人们知道苹果是因为其硬件设备。例如，iPhone 是公司的皇冠明珠。自 2007 年首款型号发布以来，这种情况一直如此。想想这个单一产品已经持续了近二十年，并且至今仍然相关，真是令人惊叹。</p>
<p>在 2025 财年第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日），iPhone 的销售占苹果总收入的 47%。公司的财务成功仍然依赖于向全球更多人销售这些设备。</p>
<p>然而，这不再是一个积极的特征。考虑到功能更新不再像以前那样具有革命性，消费者转向最新 iPhone 版本的动机减少，这可能会对销售增长造成压力。</p>
<p>然而，苹果的收入结构正逐渐向服务转变。像 Pay、Card、TV+、App Store、Music 和广告等产品在第三季度的收入达到了 274 亿美元，占公司总销售额的 29%。服务部门同比增长了 13.2%，并拥有 76% 的优异毛利率。如果近期趋势持续，未来五到十年，服务可能会占苹果收入的更大份额。</p>
<h2>苹果的增长前景</h2>
<p>要使股票让投资者成为百万富翁，必须具备显著的增长潜力。考虑到 iPhone 的成熟以及苹果已经庞大的规模，过去 12 个月的收入为 4080 亿美元，期待未来有巨大的增长是不现实的。根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，该业务预计在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间的复合年增长率为 5.7%。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，苹果正在开发一系列由人工智能（AI）驱动的新型智能家居硬件设备。桌面机器人、家庭安全摄像头和智能音箱是该公司可能很快推出的产品示例。</p>
<p>一个问题仍然存在：这些新设备能否对苹果的收入产生实质性推动？虽然没有人能确定，但我将采取保守的观点，预计这些产品将随着时间的推移成为公司收入的小贡献者。这并不是看涨投资者所希望看到的。</p>
<h2>保持期望在合理范围内</h2>
<p>苹果是全球最高质量的公司之一，几乎没有人会对此提出异议。其无与伦比的品牌影响力、强大的生态系统使用户保持忠诚、创新历史和惊人的盈利能力都是不可忽视的优良特征。这些特征可能正是沃伦·巴菲特领导的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 对该公司进行大额投资的原因。</p>
<p>尽管对苹果持有这种积极看法，但这只股票并不是你成为百万富翁的通行证。那些巨额回报已成为过去。考虑到 35 的高市盈率，加上我们展望未来时增长前景的平淡，看到苹果股票在未来十年表现不佳并不令人惊讶。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>这篇文章讨论了苹果股票（AAPL）作为未来财富投资的潜力。虽然 1995 年投资 1,455 美元今天已经变成了百万美元的投资组合，但未来的增长前景似乎有限。苹果的收入严重依赖于 iPhone 的销售，由于市场饱和，这一部分可能不会看到显著增长。然而，公司正在向服务领域转型，服务业务稳步增长。尽管苹果拥有强大的品牌和盈利能力，分析师预计收入增长温和，这表明苹果股票在未来十年可能不会带来百万富翁级别的回报</p>

<p>Everyone wants to find stocks that can turn them into millionaires, and buying <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) early on would've done just that. Had you bought just $1,455 worth of shares exactly 30 years ago in August 1995, you'd be staring at a seven-figure dollar sum in your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个人都希望找到能够让他们成为百万富翁的股票，而早期购买 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 就能实现这一目标。如果你在 1995 年 8 月正好花 1455 美元购买了该公司的股票，现在你的投资组合中将会有七位数的美元资产。</p>
</div><p>The consumer-electronics giant has become a global icon, thanks to its incredibly popular products and services, which have led to great financial success. However, if you're new to investing, you may be wondering if things could be the same going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家消费电子巨头因其极受欢迎的产品和服务而成为全球标志，这些产品和服务带来了巨大的财务成功。然而，如果你是投资新手，可能会想知道未来是否会继续如此。</p>
</div><p>Is this top tech stock, which has generated serious wealth for investors in the past, your ticket to becoming a millionaire in the future?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这只曾为投资者创造了可观财富的顶级科技股，是否是你未来成为百万富翁的机会？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5OTUvYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stYnV0dG9ucy1vbi1zdG9jay1jaGFydC10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829995%2Fbuy-sell-stock-buttons-on-stock-chart-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Shifting revenue composition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入构成的变化</h2>
</div><p>People know Apple for its hardware devices. The iPhone, for instance, is the company's crown jewel. This has been the case since the first model was released in 2007. It's remarkable to think that this single product has had a nearly two-decade run, with its relevance still continuing to this day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们知道苹果是因为其硬件设备。例如，iPhone 是公司的皇冠明珠。自 2007 年首款型号发布以来，这种情况一直如此。想想这个单一产品已经持续了近二十年，并且至今仍然相关，真是令人惊叹。</p>
</div><p>In the fiscal 2025 third quarter (ended June 28), sales of the iPhone represented 47% of Apple's total revenue. The company's financial success still depends on selling more of these devices to people across the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日），iPhone 的销售占苹果总收入的 47%。公司的财务成功仍然依赖于向全球更多人销售这些设备。</p>
</div><p>That's not necessarily a positive attribute anymore. Given that feature updates aren't as revolutionary as they used to be, consumers have less incentive to spend more to switch to the latest iPhone iteration. This can pressure sales gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这不再是一个积极的特征。考虑到功能更新不再像以前那样具有革命性，消费者转向最新 iPhone 版本的动机减少，这可能会对销售增长造成压力。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple's revenue structure is shifting more toward services. Offerings like Pay, Card, TV+, the App Store, Music, and advertising, among other things, raked in $27.4 billion in revenue in Q3, contributing 29% to the company's total sales base. The services segment grew 13.2% year over year and boasts a superb gross margin of 76%. Looking five or 10 years down the road, services are likely to represent a larger share of Apple's revenue if recent trends persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果的收入结构正逐渐向服务转变。像 Pay、Card、TV+、App Store、Music 和广告等产品在第三季度的收入达到了 274 亿美元，占公司总销售额的 29%。服务部门同比增长了 13.2%，并拥有 76% 的优异毛利率。如果近期趋势持续，未来五到十年，服务可能会占苹果收入的更大份额。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth prospects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的增长前景</h2>
</div><p>For a stock to turn its investors into millionaires, there needs to be significant growth potential. Given the maturity of the iPhone, as well as Apple's already colossal size, with trailing-12-month revenue of $408 billion, it's not realistic to expect huge gains going forward. According to Wall Street consensus analyst estimates, the business is projected to increase revenue at a compound annual rate of 5.7% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要使股票让投资者成为百万富翁，必须具备显著的增长潜力。考虑到 iPhone 的成熟以及苹果已经庞大的规模，过去 12 个月的收入为 4080 亿美元，期待未来有巨大的增长是不现实的。根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，该业务预计在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间的复合年增长率为 5.7%。</p>
</div><p>To its credit, though, Apple is working on a new range of smart home hardware devices powered by artificial intelligence (AI). A tabletop robot, home security cameras, and smart speakers are examples of what the business could soon launch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，苹果正在开发一系列由人工智能（AI）驱动的新型智能家居硬件设备。桌面机器人、家庭安全摄像头和智能音箱是该公司可能很快推出的产品示例。</p>
</div><p>One question remains: Can any of these new devices provide a meaningful boost to Apple's top line? While no one knows for sure, I'm going to adopt a conservative view and expect these products to become small contributors to the company's revenue over time. That's not exactly what bullish investors want to see.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个问题仍然存在：这些新设备能否对苹果的收入产生实质性推动？虽然没有人能确定，但我将采取保守的观点，预计这些产品将随着时间的推移成为公司收入的小贡献者。这并不是看涨投资者所希望看到的。</p>
</div><h2>Keep expectations in check</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保持期望在合理范围内</h2>
</div><p>Apple is one of the highest-quality companies on the face of the planet, and very few would argue with that statement. Its unmatched brand presence, powerful ecosystem that keeps users locked in, history of innovation, and insane profitability are all wonderful traits that can't be overlooked. These characteristics are probably what compelled Warren Buffett-led <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> to make a sizable bet on the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果是全球最高质量的公司之一，几乎没有人会对此提出异议。其无与伦比的品牌影响力、强大的生态系统使用户保持忠诚、创新历史和惊人的盈利能力都是不可忽视的优良特征。这些特征可能正是沃伦·巴菲特领导的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 对该公司进行大额投资的原因。</p>
</div><p>Despite this positive view of Apple, the stock isn't your ticket to becoming a millionaire. Those huge returns are a thing of the past. Given the expensive price-to-earnings ratio of 35, coupled with the muted growth prospects as we look ahead, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Apple shares underperform the broader market over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对苹果持有这种积极看法，但这只股票并不是你成为百万富翁的通行证。那些巨额回报已成为过去。考虑到 35 的高市盈率，加上我们展望未来时增长前景的平淡，看到苹果股票在未来十年表现不佳并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div>

Is Apple Stock Your Ticket to Becoming a Millionaire?

- 苹果公司（AAPL）过去 30 年为投资者创造了巨额财富。  
- 目前，iPhone 销售占总收入的 47%，但服务收入增长显著。  
- 未来增长潜力有限，预计股票表现可能低于市场平均水平。  

苹果股票能否成为你迈向百万富翁的通行证？