<p><strong>家得宝</strong>(HD 3.84%) 是历史上最成功的股票之一。该股票于 1981 年首次公开募股（IPO），距离其成立仅两年。如今，它在美国、加拿大和墨西哥运营着超过 2300 家门店。</p>
<p>然而，在北美以外的扩张失败后，它每月新开门店的数量少于一家。随着其当前市场接近饱和，预测家得宝股票在未来五年的表现是值得的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：家得宝。</p>
<h2>家得宝的现状</h2>
<p>家得宝是第一大家居改善零售商。平均每个门店为进行家庭项目的 DIY 爱好者提供服务，库存约 35,000 种产品。</p>
<p>由于家得宝远大于普通五金店，它成为了家居改善的一站式购物中心，改变了美国人购买此类商品的方式。在其同行中，只有 <strong>Lowe's</strong>，美国另一家主要的家居改善零售商，能够接近完全竞争，尽管像 <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> 或 <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> 这样的连锁店在特定领域也有竞争。</p>
<p>尽管如此，家得宝最令人担忧的威胁可能是其成功。大约 90% 的美国人口居住在距离其门店 10 英里以内。在其在北美以外的扩张努力失败后，家得宝似乎在超额增长方面几乎没有选择。</p>
<p>除非它能找到在新市场取得成功的方法，否则这种动态不太可能改变。因此，家得宝在过去五年中表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 也就不足为奇了，即使考虑到股息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png"/></p>
<p>HD 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>家得宝的财务状况</h2>
<p>与企业的现状一样，财务状况反映出一家成熟企业的特征。在 2025 年上半年，收入为 850 亿美元，比 2024 年同期增长了 7%。</p>
<p>不幸的是，在此期间，其销售成本和运营费用的增长速度超过了收入。因此，运营收入在该期间仅增长了 0.6%。此外，利息收入下降和利息支出上升使得 2025 年前两个季度的净收入降至 80 亿美元，比去年同期减少了 2.2%。</p>
<p>此外，第三季度的预测显示销售增长为 2.8%。尽管如此，即使家得宝超出该预期，环比增长放缓似乎也是不可避免的。</p>
<p>相反，股息无疑已成为持有家得宝股票的最佳理由。其首次股息是在 1987 年，金额为每股约六分之一美分的拆分调整年支付额。从那时起，经过多次增加，目前的年支付额已达到每股 9.20 美元。这相当于 2.25% 的股息收益率，远高于标准普尔 500 指数的 1.2% 平均水平。</p>
<p>该支付额每年大多数情况下都会增加，使其对收入投资者更具吸引力。此外，这一记录使得长期股东有充分理由继续持有该股票，因为股息收益率将相对于他们的初始投资而上升。</p>
<p>挑战可能出现在公司的市盈率（P/E）上。该收益倍数略高于 27，低于标准普尔 500 指数的 30 的平均水平。尽管如此，考虑到公司的缓慢增长，投资者可能会认为这一估值过高，可能促使新投资者寻求其他地方的股票和股息回报。</p>
<h2>家得宝在五年内的展望</h2>
<p>在未来五年中，投资者应期待股息上升和更高的回报，但不足以超越标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
<p>鉴于其在家居改善领域的角色，该公司和股票可能会受益于缓慢而稳定的回报。这应该会逐渐推动股票及其股息随时间上升。</p>
<p>不幸的是，家得宝并未为其投资者提供超出通货膨胀和人口增长的有意义的增长前景。这种情况使得超越市场变得困难，给投资者留下了很少的理由去以 27 倍的收益购买一只回报低于标准普尔 500 指数的股票。</p>
<p>最终，持续上升的股息应继续为零售股票的股东提供更多的好处，使他们几乎没有理由出售。然而，可能的表现不佳意味着投资者可能应该将新资本投入到其他地方。</p>

家得宝

<p>家得宝，作为领先的家居改善零售商，由于市场饱和和扩张失败面临增长挑战。尽管在 2025 年初收入增长了 7%，但成本上升导致营业收入仅增长了 0.6%。在过去五年中，该股票的表现低于标准普尔 500 指数，市盈率为 27，低于标准普尔的平均水平。投资者可以期待股息上升，但增长前景有限，这表明新资本可能更适合投资于其他地方</p>

<p><strong>Home Depot</strong>(HD 3.84%) has one of the most successful stocks in history. The stock launched its initial public offering (IPO) in 1981, just two years after its founding. Today, it operates over 2,300 stores in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>家得宝</strong>(HD 3.84%) 是历史上最成功的股票之一。该股票于 1981 年首次公开募股（IPO），距离其成立仅两年。如今，它在美国、加拿大和墨西哥运营着超过 2300 家门店。</p>
</div><p>However, after expansion outside of North America failed, it has opened fewer than one new location per month. With its current markets close to saturation, it's worth predicting where Home Depot stock will be over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在北美以外的扩张失败后，它每月新开门店的数量少于一家。随着其当前市场接近饱和，预测家得宝股票在未来五年的表现是值得的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzOTIvaGQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830392%2Fhd.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Home Depot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：家得宝。</p>
</div><h2>The state of Home Depot</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得宝的现状</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot is the No. 1 home improvement retailer. The average location serves do-it-yourselfers working on projects around the home, stocking around 35,000 products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝是第一大家居改善零售商。平均每个门店为进行家庭项目的 DIY 爱好者提供服务，库存约 35,000 种产品。</p>
</div><p>Since Home Depot was far larger than the average hardware store, it made itself a one-stop shop for home improvement, changing the way Americans shopped for such items. Of its peers, only <strong>Lowe's</strong>, the other major home improvement retailer in the U.S., comes close to fully competing, though chains like <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> or <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> compete in specific areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于家得宝远大于普通五金店，它成为了家居改善的一站式购物中心，改变了美国人购买此类商品的方式。在其同行中，只有 <strong>Lowe's</strong>，美国另一家主要的家居改善零售商，能够接近完全竞争，尽管像 <strong>Floor &amp; Decor</strong> 或 <strong>Tractor Supply</strong> 这样的连锁店在特定领域也有竞争。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Home Depot's most concerning threat may be its success. Approximately 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of one of its locations. Amid its failed expansion efforts outside of North America, Home Depot appears to have few options for outsized growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，家得宝最令人担忧的威胁可能是其成功。大约 90% 的美国人口居住在距离其门店 10 英里以内。在其在北美以外的扩张努力失败后，家得宝似乎在超额增长方面几乎没有选择。</p>
</div><p>Unless it can find a way to succeed in new markets, that dynamic is unlikely to change. Thus, it will probably come as little surprise that Home Depot has underperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> over the previous five years, even when accounting for dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非它能找到在新市场取得成功的方法，否则这种动态不太可能改变。因此，家得宝在过去五年中表现不及 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 也就不足为奇了，即使考虑到股息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19a403608adcff93c4d3a62b6a5c1f03.png"/></p>
<p>HD Total Return Level data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HD 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot's financials</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得宝的财务状况</h2>
</div><p>Like the state of the enterprise, the financials reflect a mature business. In the first half of 2025, revenue of $85 billion grew 7% compared to the same period in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与企业的现状一样，财务状况反映出一家成熟企业的特征。在 2025 年上半年，收入为 850 亿美元，比 2024 年同期增长了 7%。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, both its costs of sales and operating expenses rose faster than revenue during that time frame. Consequently, operating income grew by only 0.6% for the period. Also, falling interest income and rising interest expenses helped take its net income for the first two quarters of 2025 to $8 billion, a 2.2% reduction versus year-ago levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，在此期间，其销售成本和运营费用的增长速度超过了收入。因此，运营收入在该期间仅增长了 0.6%。此外，利息收入下降和利息支出上升使得 2025 年前两个季度的净收入降至 80 亿美元，比去年同期减少了 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, third-quarter projections call for sales growth of 2.8%. Still, even if Home Depot beats that estimate, a sequential growth slowdown appears likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，第三季度的预测显示销售增长为 2.8%。尽管如此，即使家得宝超出该预期，环比增长放缓似乎也是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>Instead, dividends have arguably become the best reason to own Home Depot stock. Its first dividend was in 1987, and it amounted to a split-adjusted annual payout of approximately one-sixth of one cent per share. Since that time, numerous increases have taken its current payout to $9.20 per share yearly. That amounts to a dividend yield of 2.25%, well above the 1.2% average for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，股息无疑已成为持有家得宝股票的最佳理由。其首次股息是在 1987 年，金额为每股约六分之一美分的拆分调整年支付额。从那时起，经过多次增加，目前的年支付额已达到每股 9.20 美元。这相当于 2.25% 的股息收益率，远高于标准普尔 500 指数的 1.2% 平均水平。</p>
</div><p>The payout also rises most years, making it more appealing to income investors. Moreover, that track record gives longtime shareholders good reason to stay with the stock since dividend yields will rise relative to their original investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该支付额每年大多数情况下都会增加，使其对收入投资者更具吸引力。此外，这一记录使得长期股东有充分理由继续持有该股票，因为股息收益率将相对于他们的初始投资而上升。</p>
</div><p>Where the challenge may come is with the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. That earnings multiple of just over 27 is below the S&amp;P 500's average of 30. Nonetheless, considering the company's slow growth, investors may perceive that valuation as pricey, possibly prompting new investors to seek stock and dividend returns elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挑战可能出现在公司的市盈率（P/E）上。该收益倍数略高于 27，低于标准普尔 500 指数的 30 的平均水平。尽管如此，考虑到公司的缓慢增长，投资者可能会认为这一估值过高，可能促使新投资者寻求其他地方的股票和股息回报。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot in five years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得宝在五年内的展望</h2>
</div><p>Over the next five years, investors should expect rising dividends and higher returns, but not enough to beat the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来五年中，投资者应期待股息上升和更高的回报，但不足以超越标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
</div><p>Given its role in the home improvement space, the company and stock will likely benefit from slow, steady returns. This should gradually take the stock and its dividend higher over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于其在家居改善领域的角色，该公司和股票可能会受益于缓慢而稳定的回报。这应该会逐渐推动股票及其股息随时间上升。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, Home Depot is not offering its investors meaningful growth prospects beyond inflation and the increase in population. Such conditions make it difficult to beat the market, giving investors few reasons to pay 27 times earnings for a stock that delivers lower returns than the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，家得宝并未为其投资者提供超出通货膨胀和人口增长的有意义的增长前景。这种情况使得超越市场变得困难，给投资者留下了很少的理由去以 27 倍的收益购买一只回报低于标准普尔 500 指数的股票。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the rising dividend should continue to offer increased benefits to shareholders in the retail stock, leaving them with little reason to sell. However, a likely underperformance means investors should probably put new capital to work elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，持续上升的股息应继续为零售股票的股东提供更多的好处，使他们几乎没有理由出售。然而，可能的表现不佳意味着投资者可能应该将新资本投入到其他地方。</p>
</div>

家得宝的股票能否在未来五年内跑赢市场？