<p>随着沃伦·巴菲特即将迎来 95 岁生日，他仍然是全球最受尊敬的投资经理之一。这一点在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) 的股票对他将于明年 1 月 1 日辞去首席执行官职务的消息的反应中显而易见。</p>
<p>自那时以来，股价下跌了约 10%，几乎完全是由于其估值倍数的收缩。显然，投资者在没有巴菲特掌舵的情况下，不愿意为伯克希尔的运营和资产负债表支付那么高的价格。</p>
<p>但投资者仍然有几个月的时间可以关注巴菲特在伯克希尔公开交易的投资组合中的动向。该集团在第二季度继续卖出股票，买入股票的数量少于卖出，已经连续 11 个季度净卖出。<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 和 <strong>美国银行</strong>(BAC 2.55%) 再次被列入待售名单，但巴菲特向一只被打压的价值股投入了约 20 亿美元，使其成为他过去一年中最大的购买之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>削减大赢家</h2>
<p>伯克希尔对苹果和美国银行的投资为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来了可观的利润。巴菲特在 5 月的年度会议上开玩笑说：“蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比我赚的还多。” 但这些利润在伯克希尔出售投资之前并不算真正的利润，而巴菲特正在将伯克希尔的部分收益兑现。</p>
<p>巴菲特在第二季度出售了 2000 万股苹果和 2600 万股美国银行。这占据了第二季度 690 亿美元总股票销售的很大一部分。总体而言，自 2023 年中以来，巴菲特已经处置了伯克希尔在苹果中 69% 的股份，以及在美国银行中 41% 的股份。</p>
<p>巴菲特最近出售的原因有几个。</p>
<p>首先，巴菲特认为当前的税收环境对企业特别友好。伯克希尔在其收益上仅支付 21% 的税。这是自 1930 年代以来最低的企业税率。巴菲特认为这并不可持续，他正在利用这个机会。他甚至在 2024 年致股东的信中夸耀了伯克希尔的税单规模。</p>
<p>但仅仅为了（可能）在长期内节省税款而出售股票是没有太大意义的。巴菲特的出售也可能受到两只股票估值的影响。苹果股票的前瞻市盈率在大部分季度内介于 27 到 29 之间。这远高于巴菲特在 2016 年为苹果支付的个位数倍数。</p>
<p>同样，美国银行的股票看起来也很贵。该股票的价格与有形账面价值的比率在第二季度一度超过 1.7。美国银行持有的长期债券数量超过了平均水平，这在加息期间是一个障碍，但在降息期间则是一个好处。不幸的是，对于股东来说，降息的速度比预期慢，这影响了持有长期债券的超额收益。因此，自去年秋季以来，美国银行的股票大多横盘交易。</p>
<p>估值是巴菲特在当前市场中难以找到大量购买机会的一个重要原因。几个估值指标表明当前市场被高估。但奥马哈的先知在第二季度能够找到一只被打压的价值股，将大量伯克希尔的现金投入其中。</p>
<h2>巴菲特正在购买的逆势价值股</h2>
<p>过去一年中表现最差的市场板块无疑是医疗保健。整个行业的股票都在下跌，但该行业最大的公司之一为巴菲特提供了一个将大量资金投入的重大机会：<strong>联合健康集团</strong>(UNH 1.24%)。</p>
<p>联合健康在过去一年中经历了很多。消费者和投资者的情绪已经转向对该公司的反对。这种情况因高利用率和不断上升的护理成本对其财务结果造成压力而加剧。联合健康的净利润率在第二季度降至 3.1%，低于去年同期的 4.3%。管理层在 5 月撤回指引后也修订了全年盈利预期。现在预计每股收益 “至少” 为 16 美元，低于 2024 年的 27.66 美元。</p>
<p>除此之外，该公司还因其医疗保险优势计划受到司法部的调查。作为全国最大的医疗保险优势提供商，该调查可能导致数十亿美元的罚款和追回的收入。</p>
<p>该股票遭受了严厉打击，股价在 2024 年 7 月底和 8 月初下跌超过 60%。但考虑到联合健康的竞争护城河仍然完好，这可能是股价下跌幅度过大。</p>
<p>联合健康仍然是美国最大的管理医疗组织之一，其规模赋予了其显著的优势。更大的规模使其在谈判中拥有更大的杠杆，帮助其保持价格不至于过快上涨。随着成本的上升，联合健康的处境比该领域的小公司要好得多。</p>
<p>其药品福利管理部门 Optum Rx 也受益于规模和网络效应。Optum 能够比小型竞争对手谈判出更好的药品价格，这吸引了更多客户到其药品福利管理中，从而进一步增强了其谈判能力。</p>
<p>联合健康还拥有稳健的资产负债表，现金储备不断增长（320 亿美元），这应有助于其抵御因司法部调查而产生的任何负面后果。它还具有在想要进一步积累资金时暂停股票回购的灵活性。79 亿美元的债务在其可预测的保费收入产生的现金流不断增长的情况下看起来是可控的。</p>
<p>该股票目前的交易价格约为 2026 年每股收益预期的 16 倍。考虑到管理层对每股收益年增长率在 13% 到 16% 之间的预期，这看起来现在是一个很好的价值。尽管面临着重大风险，包括司法部的调查悬而未决、监管带来一些收入阻力，以及医疗利用率仍然较高。但现在看来，这是一个在他人恐惧时贪婪的机会。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

联合健康

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃伦·巴菲特正在出售伯克希尔哈撒韦在苹果和美国银行的重大股份，自 2023 年中以来分别减持了 69% 和 41%。这一卖出趋势是连续 11 个季度净卖出的结果，主要归因于高估值和有利的税收条件。相反，巴菲特向联合健康投资了约 20 亿美元，这是一只经历了 60% 下跌的医疗股票，在其困境和持续调查中呈现出潜在的买入机会</p>

<p>As Warren Buffett approaches his 95th birthday, he remains one of the most well-respected investment managers in the world. That's readily evident in how <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) shares reacted to the news that he would step down as CEO of the company starting Jan. 1 next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着沃伦·巴菲特即将迎来 95 岁生日，他仍然是全球最受尊敬的投资经理之一。这一点在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -0.13%)(BRK.B -0.06%) 的股票对他将于明年 1 月 1 日辞去首席执行官职务的消息的反应中显而易见。</p>
</div><p>The stock has dropped about 10% since then, due almost entirely to its contracting valuation multiple. Seemingly, investors aren't willing to pay as much for Berkshire's operations and balance sheet without Buffett at the helm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，股价下跌了约 10%，几乎完全是由于其估值倍数的收缩。显然，投资者在没有巴菲特掌舵的情况下，不愿意为伯克希尔的运营和资产负债表支付那么高的价格。</p>
</div><p>But investors still have a few months left to follow Buffett's moves in Berkshire's publicly traded investment portfolio. The conglomerate continued to sell more stock than it bought in the second quarter, making it 11 straight quarters of net selling. <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) and <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC 2.55%) were once again on the chopping block, but Buffett piled an estimated $2 billion into a beaten down value stock, making it one of his biggest purchases of the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者仍然有几个月的时间可以关注巴菲特在伯克希尔公开交易的投资组合中的动向。该集团在第二季度继续卖出股票，买入股票的数量少于卖出，已经连续 11 个季度净卖出。<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.21%) 和 <strong>美国银行</strong>(BAC 2.55%) 再次被列入待售名单，但巴菲特向一只被打压的价值股投入了约 20 亿美元，使其成为他过去一年中最大的购买之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5ODQvYnVmZmV0dDExLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829984%2Fbuffett11-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Trimming the big winners</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>削减大赢家</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire's investments in Apple and Bank of America have produced significant profits for Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett joked that &#34;Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I've ever made&#34; at the company's annual meeting in May. But those profits aren't quite real until Berkshire sells the investments, and Buffett is taking a good portion of Berkshire's gains off the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔对苹果和美国银行的投资为伯克希尔哈撒韦带来了可观的利润。巴菲特在 5 月的年度会议上开玩笑说：“蒂姆·库克为伯克希尔赚的钱比我赚的还多。” 但这些利润在伯克希尔出售投资之前并不算真正的利润，而巴菲特正在将伯克希尔的部分收益兑现。</p>
</div><p>Buffett sold 20 million shares of Apple and 26 million shares of Bank of America in the second quarter. That was a big portion of the $6.9 billion in total stock sales for the second quarter. Overall, Buffett has disposed of 69% of Berkshire's stake in Apple since mid-2023 and 41% of its stake in Bank of America.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在第二季度出售了 2000 万股苹果和 2600 万股美国银行。这占据了第二季度 690 亿美元总股票销售的很大一部分。总体而言，自 2023 年中以来，巴菲特已经处置了伯克希尔在苹果中 69% 的股份，以及在美国银行中 41% 的股份。</p>
</div><p>There are a couple of explanations for Buffett's recent selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特最近出售的原因有几个。</p>
</div><p>First, Buffett sees the current tax environment as particularly friendly for corporations. Berkshire pays just 21% in taxes on its earnings. That's the lowest corporate tax rate since the 1930s. Buffett doesn't think that's sustainable, and he's taking advantage of the opportunity while he can. He even bragged about the size of Berkshire's tax bill in his 2024 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，巴菲特认为当前的税收环境对企业特别友好。伯克希尔在其收益上仅支付 21% 的税。这是自 1930 年代以来最低的企业税率。巴菲特认为这并不可持续，他正在利用这个机会。他甚至在 2024 年致股东的信中夸耀了伯克希尔的税单规模。</p>
</div><p>But it makes little sense to sell a stock just to (potentially) save on taxes in the long run. Buffett's selling is also likely motivated by the valuation of both stocks. The forward PE ratio of Apple stock sat between 27 and 29 for most of the quarter. That's well above the single-digit multiple Buffett paid for Apple in 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仅仅为了（可能）在长期内节省税款而出售股票是没有太大意义的。巴菲特的出售也可能受到两只股票估值的影响。苹果股票的前瞻市盈率在大部分季度内介于 27 到 29 之间。这远高于巴菲特在 2016 年为苹果支付的个位数倍数。</p>
</div><p>Likewise, Bank of America stock looks expensive as well. The stock's price to tangible book value climbed above 1.7 at one point in the second quarter. Bank of America holds more long-duration bonds than the average bank, which was a hindrance amid rate hikes, but it's a boon during rate cuts. Unfortunately for shareholders, rate cuts have come more slowly than anticipated, which has weighed on the outsized benefit of holding long-duration bonds. As such, Bank of America stock has mostly traded sideways since last fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，美国银行的股票看起来也很贵。该股票的价格与有形账面价值的比率在第二季度一度超过 1.7。美国银行持有的长期债券数量超过了平均水平，这在加息期间是一个障碍，但在降息期间则是一个好处。不幸的是，对于股东来说，降息的速度比预期慢，这影响了持有长期债券的超额收益。因此，自去年秋季以来，美国银行的股票大多横盘交易。</p>
</div><p>Valuation is a big reason Buffett has been struggling to find a lot to buy in the current market. Several valuation indicators suggest the current market is overbought. But the Oracle of Omaha was able to find one beaten-down value stock to sink a significant amount of Berkshire's cash into during the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值是巴菲特在当前市场中难以找到大量购买机会的一个重要原因。几个估值指标表明当前市场被高估。但奥马哈的先知在第二季度能够找到一只被打压的价值股，将大量伯克希尔的现金投入其中。</p>
</div><h2>The contrarian value stock Buffett's buying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特正在购买的逆势价值股</h2>
</div><p>By far the worst performing sector of the market over the past year has been healthcare. Stocks across the industry are down, but one of the biggest companies in the sector presented a big opportunity for Buffett to put a lot of money to work: <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.24%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年中表现最差的市场板块无疑是医疗保健。整个行业的股票都在下跌，但该行业最大的公司之一为巴菲特提供了一个将大量资金投入的重大机会：<strong>联合健康集团</strong>(UNH 1.24%)。</p>
</div><p>United has gone through a lot over the past year. Consumer and investor sentiment has turned against the company. That's been exacerbated by high utilization rates and increasing cost of care weighing on its financial results. United's net margin fell to 3.1% in the second quarter, down from 4.3% in the same period a year ago. Management also revised its full-year earnings outlook after withdrawing its guidance in May. It now expects &#34;at least&#34; $16 in earnings per share, down from $27.66 in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康在过去一年中经历了很多。消费者和投资者的情绪已经转向对该公司的反对。这种情况因高利用率和不断上升的护理成本对其财务结果造成压力而加剧。联合健康的净利润率在第二季度降至 3.1%，低于去年同期的 4.3%。管理层在 5 月撤回指引后也修订了全年盈利预期。现在预计每股收益 “至少” 为 16 美元，低于 2024 年的 27.66 美元。</p>
</div><p>On top of all that, the company is being investigated by the DOJ over its Medicare Advantage program. As the largest Medicare Advantage provider in the country, the investigation could result in billions in fines and clawed back revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除此之外，该公司还因其医疗保险优势计划受到司法部的调查。作为全国最大的医疗保险优势提供商，该调查可能导致数十亿美元的罚款和追回的收入。</p>
</div><p>The stock has been absolutely punished, with shares down more than 60% from their late 2024 at the end of July and early August. But that may be a bigger drop in share price than is warranted, especially considering United's competitive moats remain intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票遭受了严厉打击，股价在 2024 年 7 月底和 8 月初下跌超过 60%。但考虑到联合健康的竞争护城河仍然完好，这可能是股价下跌幅度过大。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is still one of the largest managed care organizations in the country, and its scale gives it significant advantages. Greater scale gives it negotiating leverage, helping it keep prices from rising too much. As costs have climbed, United finds itself in a much better position than smaller companies in the space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康仍然是美国最大的管理医疗组织之一，其规模赋予了其显著的优势。更大的规模使其在谈判中拥有更大的杠杆，帮助其保持价格不至于过快上涨。随着成本的上升，联合健康的处境比该领域的小公司要好得多。</p>
</div><p>Its pharmacy benefits management segment, Optum Rx, also benefits from scale and network effects. Optum is able to negotiate better drug pricing than smaller competitors, which attracts more customers to its PBM, which in turn gives it even more negotiating leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其药品福利管理部门 Optum Rx 也受益于规模和网络效应。Optum 能够比小型竞争对手谈判出更好的药品价格，这吸引了更多客户到其药品福利管理中，从而进一步增强了其谈判能力。</p>
</div><p>United also sports a solid balance sheet with a growing cash buffer ($32 billion), which should help shield it from any negative consequences that arise from the DOJ investigation. It also has the flexibility to pause its share repurchases if it wants to further build up with war chest . Debt at $79 billion looks manageable, given its predictable revenue from premiums producing growing cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康还拥有稳健的资产负债表，现金储备不断增长（320 亿美元），这应有助于其抵御因司法部调查而产生的任何负面后果。它还具有在想要进一步积累资金时暂停股票回购的灵活性。79 亿美元的债务在其可预测的保费收入产生的现金流不断增长的情况下看起来是可控的。</p>
</div><p>The stock now trades at about 16-times 2026 earnings per share estimates. With management's expectations for annual EPS growth in the 13% to 16% range, that looks like a great value now. There are significant risks facing the business, as the DOJ investigation hangs over its head, regulations present some revenue headwinds, and medical utilization remains high. But right now, it looks like an opportunity to be greedy while others are fearful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票目前的交易价格约为 2026 年每股收益预期的 16 倍。考虑到管理层对每股收益年增长率在 13% 到 16% 之间的预期，这看起来现在是一个很好的价值。尽管面临着重大风险，包括司法部的调查悬而未决、监管带来一些收入阻力，以及医疗利用率仍然较高。但现在看来，这是一个在他人恐惧时贪婪的机会。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Is Selling Apple and Bank of America and Piling Into This Beaten Down Value Stock Instead

- 巴菲特即将年满 95 岁，仍是备受尊敬的投资经理。  
- 伯克希尔哈撒韦股票因巴菲特将辞任 CEO 而下跌约 10%。  
- 巴菲特在第二季度出售了大量苹果和美国银行的股票，同时投资于联合健康集团。

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沃伦·巴菲特正在出售苹果和美国银行股票，并转而投资于这只被低估的价值股