<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 6.18%) 在电动车（EV）市场上主导了十多年，但公司的核心业务开始面临挑战。与此同时，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 7.80%) 作为一家汽车制造商仍处于早期阶段，但开始达成重要里程碑。</p>
<p>这两只股票都存在风险，但目前有一只股票对投资者的布局更为有利。</p>
<h2>Rivian 的 R2 机会</h2>
<p>Rivian 在第二季度再次出现负毛利率，之前连续两个季度为正，主要是由于供应限制和新关税导致的材料成本上升。今年秋季联邦 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免的取消将是另一个拖累。这些都是实际的逆风，但并没有削弱 Rivian 所取得的进展。</p>
<p>建立一个盈利的电动车业务并不容易，甚至大型汽车制造商也常常难以以盈利的价格销售其电动车型。然而，Rivian 在转向区域架构时迈出了重要一步。这减少了其车辆中的电子控制单元和布线数量，使其 SUV 的生产成本降低。这也帮助公司与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 达成了重要合作，后者为获得技术并成立合资企业而打开了支票簿。</p>
<p>Rivian 的下一个重大步骤将是在明年推出其新的、更小的 R2 SUV。起售价约为 45,000 美元，目标是比 R1 豪华系列（某些版本售价超过 100,000 美元）更广泛的受众。重要的是，Rivian 通过供应商合同锁定了成本，并预计 R2 将通过降低材料成本、更高的产量以及与 R1 和电动送货车系列共享固定费用来实现更强的利润率。</p>
<p>在财务方面，Rivian 得到了 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的支持，后者使用其送货车，并且如果达到某些里程碑，仍将从大众汽车获得更多资金。它还获得了来自能源部的 66 亿美元贷款，以帮助建设第二个美国工厂。公司拥有 75 亿美元的现金和短期投资，足以支持 R2 的推出。管理层的目标是在 2027 年前实现息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）盈亏平衡，如果 R2 成功，这似乎是一个现实的时间表。</p>
<p>Rivian 仍然是一个高风险的名字，但它拥有良好的资产负债表、合作伙伴和正确的车辆战略，可以成长为一个盈利的企业。</p>
<h2>特斯拉正在失去动力</h2>
<p>特斯拉的核心汽车业务正朝着错误的方向发展。过去两个季度的交付量均下降了两位数，而第二季度的汽车收入下降了 16%。盈利能力和现金流也受到影响。调整后的每股收益在上个季度下降了 23%，而运营现金流下降了 30%，自由现金流则骤降至仅 146 百万美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，其高毛利的监管信用销售在本季度减少了一半以上。马斯克已经警告投资者，一旦电动车税收抵免在今年晚些时候消失，情况可能会变得更糟。</p>
<p>马斯克并没有专注于改善其疲软的汽车业务，而是继续向投资者推销特斯拉的自动驾驶和机器人雄心。公司在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一个小型机器人出租车试点项目，但该服务仅限于地理围栏区域，并需要特斯拉员工作为安全驾驶员。由于几起安全事件，该项目已经引起当地官员的关注。</p>
<p>特斯拉承诺在年底之前在美国一半地区快速推出机器人出租车，前提是获得监管批准，但该技术似乎尚未准备好。它决定放弃激光雷达技术，采用仅使用摄像头的方法，这一决定仍然存在争议。这种设计节省了成本，但在某些复杂驾驶条件下，技术表现不佳，导致人们对其安全性产生疑问。相比之下，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 机器人出租车在多个城市运营付费无人驾驶服务方面已经领先多年。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>哪只电动车股票胜出？</h2>
<p>特斯拉和 Rivian 的股票都承载着相当的风险。Rivian 仍然处于亏损状态，并面临来自关税和电动车税收抵免取消的短期逆风。然而，特斯拉的汽车业务正在减弱，其估值假设在机器人出租车和机器人领域会取得巨大成功，而其首席执行官的行为已经损害了品牌在许多消费者心中的形象。</p>
<p>在两者之间，Rivian 看起来是更好的投资。该公司正在改善其成本结构，通过 R2 SUV 扩展市场，并得到了资金充足的合作伙伴的支持，以帮助其增长。相比之下，特斯拉的股票仍然被定价为其自动驾驶和机器人投资会获得回报，尽管它尚未证明这些投资能够成功。</p>
<p>在我看来，对于愿意承担风险的投资者来说，Rivian 是更值得拥有的电动车股票。</p>

特斯拉

RIVN

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>Rivian 和特斯拉都是面临不同挑战的电动车股票。Rivian 正在努力实现盈利，推出即将上市的 R2 SUV，并获得了重要的合作伙伴关系和资金支持，尽管面临关税和电动车税收抵免取消等短期阻力。另一方面，特斯拉正经历汽车销售下滑和盈利问题，同时专注于雄心勃勃但尚未验证的自动驾驶项目。总体而言，由于 Rivian 的成本结构改善和市场扩展计划，其投资前景似乎更为有利，而特斯拉的股票在当前困境下仍显得高估</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 6.18%) has dominated the electric vehicle (EV) market for over a decade, but the company's core business has begun to struggle. <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 7.80%), meanwhile, is still in the early innings as an automaker, but is starting to hit important milestones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 6.18%) 在电动车（EV）市场上主导了十多年，但公司的核心业务开始面临挑战。与此同时，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 7.80%) 作为一家汽车制造商仍处于早期阶段，但开始达成重要里程碑。</p>
</div><p>Both stocks come with risk, but one has a much better setup for investors right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两只股票都存在风险，但目前有一只股票对投资者的布局更为有利。</p>
</div><h2>Rivian's R2 opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 的 R2 机会</h2>
</div><p>Rivian slipped back into negative gross margins in Q2 after two straight positive quarters, with higher material costs due to supply constraints and new tariffs taking their toll. The loss of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit this fall will be another drag. Those are real headwinds, but they don't take away from the progress that Rivian has been making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 在第二季度再次出现负毛利率，之前连续两个季度为正，主要是由于供应限制和新关税导致的材料成本上升。今年秋季联邦 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免的取消将是另一个拖累。这些都是实际的逆风，但并没有削弱 Rivian 所取得的进展。</p>
</div><p>Building out a profitable EV business is not easy, with even major automakers often struggling to sell their EV models for a profit. However, Rivian took a big step in this direction when it switched to a zonal architecture. This slashed the number of electronic control units and wiring in its vehicles, making its SUVs cheaper to build. It also helped the company secure a major partnership with <strong>Volkswagen</strong>, which opened up its checkbook to gain access to the technology and form a joint venture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建立一个盈利的电动车业务并不容易，甚至大型汽车制造商也常常难以以盈利的价格销售其电动车型。然而，Rivian 在转向区域架构时迈出了重要一步。这减少了其车辆中的电子控制单元和布线数量，使其 SUV 的生产成本降低。这也帮助公司与 <strong>大众汽车</strong> 达成了重要合作，后者为获得技术并成立合资企业而打开了支票簿。</p>
</div><p>The next big step for Rivian will be launching its new, smaller R2 SUV next year. At a starting price of around $45,000, it will target a much broader audience than the R1 luxury line, which costs over $100,000 for some versions. Importantly, Rivian has locked in costs through supplier contracts and expects the R2 to deliver stronger margins through lower material costs, higher volumes, and shared fixed expenses with its R1 and electric delivery van lines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的下一个重大步骤将是在明年推出其新的、更小的 R2 SUV。起售价约为 45,000 美元，目标是比 R1 豪华系列（某些版本售价超过 100,000 美元）更广泛的受众。重要的是，Rivian 通过供应商合同锁定了成本，并预计 R2 将通过降低材料成本、更高的产量以及与 R1 和电动送货车系列共享固定费用来实现更强的利润率。</p>
</div><p>On the financial front, Rivian is backed by <strong>Amazon</strong>, which uses its delivery vans, and it still has more cash coming from Volkswagen if and when certain milestones are reached. It has also secured a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy to help build a second U.S. plant. With $7.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, the company has plenty of capital to support the R2 launch. Management is targeting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) breakeven by 2027, which seems like a realistic timeline if the R2 is successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财务方面，Rivian 得到了 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的支持，后者使用其送货车，并且如果达到某些里程碑，仍将从大众汽车获得更多资金。它还获得了来自能源部的 66 亿美元贷款，以帮助建设第二个美国工厂。公司拥有 75 亿美元的现金和短期投资，足以支持 R2 的推出。管理层的目标是在 2027 年前实现息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）盈亏平衡，如果 R2 成功，这似乎是一个现实的时间表。</p>
</div><p>Rivian is still a high-risk name, but it has the balance sheet, the partners, and the right vehicle strategy to grow into a profitable business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 仍然是一个高风险的名字，但它拥有良好的资产负债表、合作伙伴和正确的车辆战略，可以成长为一个盈利的企业。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is losing momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉正在失去动力</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's core auto business has been heading in the wrong direction. Deliveries dropped double digits in each of the past two quarters, while auto revenue slid 16% in Q2. Profitability and cash flow have also taken a hit. Adjusted EPS dropped 23% last quarter, while operating cash flow fell 30% and free cash flow collapsed to just $146 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的核心汽车业务正朝着错误的方向发展。过去两个季度的交付量均下降了两位数，而第二季度的汽车收入下降了 16%。盈利能力和现金流也受到影响。调整后的每股收益在上个季度下降了 23%，而运营现金流下降了 30%，自由现金流则骤降至仅 146 百万美元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, its high gross margin regulatory credit sales were cut by more than half during the quarter. Musk has already warned investors that things could get worse once the EV tax credit disappears later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其高毛利的监管信用销售在本季度减少了一半以上。马斯克已经警告投资者，一旦电动车税收抵免在今年晚些时候消失，情况可能会变得更糟。</p>
</div><p>Rather than focusing on improving its ailing auto business, Musk has instead continued to try to sell investors on Tesla's autonomous driving and robotics ambitions. The company has launched a small pilot robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, but the service is limited to a geofenced area and requires a Tesla employee as a safety driver. It's also already drawn scrutiny from local officials after several safety incidents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克并没有专注于改善其疲软的汽车业务，而是继续向投资者推销特斯拉的自动驾驶和机器人雄心。公司在德克萨斯州奥斯丁推出了一个小型机器人出租车试点项目，但该服务仅限于地理围栏区域，并需要特斯拉员工作为安全驾驶员。由于几起安全事件，该项目已经引起当地官员的关注。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is promising a rapid rollout of robotaxis across half the U.S. by year-end pending regulatory approvals, but the technology does not appear ready. Its decision to eschew lidar technology and use a camera-only approach remains controversial. This design saves costs, but the technology has struggled in some complex driving conditions, leading to questions around the safety of its approach. By comparison, <strong>Alphabet's</strong> Waymo robotaxi is far ahead, with years of experience operating paid, driverless rides in multiple cities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉承诺在年底之前在美国一半地区快速推出机器人出租车，前提是获得监管批准，但该技术似乎尚未准备好。它决定放弃激光雷达技术，采用仅使用摄像头的方法，这一决定仍然存在争议。这种设计节省了成本，但在某些复杂驾驶条件下，技术表现不佳，导致人们对其安全性产生疑问。相比之下，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 机器人出租车在多个城市运营付费无人驾驶服务方面已经领先多年。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk5MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjAzMjQyNDYyOS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829926%2Fgettyimages-2032424629.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Which EV stock wins?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪只电动车股票胜出？</h2>
</div><p>Both Tesla and Rivian stocks carry their fair share of risk. Rivian is still unprofitable and faces near-term headwinds from tariffs and the loss of EV tax credits. Tesla, however, has a weakening auto business, a valuation that assumes big success in robotaxis and robotics, and a CEO whose actions have hurt the brand with many consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉和 Rivian 的股票都承载着相当的风险。Rivian 仍然处于亏损状态，并面临来自关税和电动车税收抵免取消的短期逆风。然而，特斯拉的汽车业务正在减弱，其估值假设在机器人出租车和机器人领域会取得巨大成功，而其首席执行官的行为已经损害了品牌在许多消费者心中的形象。</p>
</div><p>Between the two, Rivian looks like the better investment. The company is improving its cost structure, expanding its market with the R2 SUV, and has the support of well-financed partners to help fund its growth. Tesla's stock, by contrast, is still priced as if its autonomous driving and robotics bets will pay off, even though it has yet to prove they can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在两者之间，Rivian 看起来是更好的投资。该公司正在改善其成本结构，通过 R2 SUV 扩展市场，并得到了资金充足的合作伙伴的支持，以帮助其增长。相比之下，特斯拉的股票仍然被定价为其自动驾驶和机器人投资会获得回报，尽管它尚未证明这些投资能够成功。</p>
</div><p>For investors willing to take on risk, Rivian is the better EV stock to own in my view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，对于愿意承担风险的投资者来说，Rivian 是更值得拥有的电动车股票。</p>
</div>

Better EV Stock: Rivian vs. Tesla

- Rivian 在电动车市场取得进展，计划推出 R2 SUV，目标价约 45,000 美元。  
- 特斯拉核心业务下滑，交付量和收入双双下降，面临盈利压力。  
- 相比之下，Rivian 具备更好的投资前景，拥有强大的合作伙伴和资金支持。

哪只电动车股票更好：Rivian 与特斯拉